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PeakOil is You

THE Bond Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 02:49:53

I'm going to miss co-workers who leave piles of unopened processed food lying around for me to "clean up" during the course of the night. Food, I might add, that I am too cheap to buy for myself.

I will not miss the transition back to standard time or, more generally, working the night shift.

If you will excuse me, I have more cleaning to do.

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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Mesuge » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 07:52:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', ' ')If people are about to hoard food, now would be a good time to buy food production and food distribution stocks like Kraft foods, Sysco, and General mills. The profits for the coming quarter will be on the up and up.


That's close to what long positioned Jim Rogers types recommend, if you can't go directly into commodities, where the x,xxx % profits will materialize, if you have entered at least like half a decade ago.

Oh, the cold world of food hoarding and bambillionairs.. :twisted:
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby deMolay » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 09:08:30

It shows how many on here have swallowed the |Obama KoolAid. Even if the State taxed away every single dollar that the rich have, lets say they outright seize all assets of the Bill Gates and Buffets of the USA and ALL others of that ilk. Do you really think that will pay off the US 200Trillion in debt owing. This is the same thing that Hitler did in demonizing the Jews and then persecuting them. You leftwing fools on here are also blind fools. You have to keep your eyes on both of Obama's/Gubmints hands at the same time. First they came for the "Rich", then they came for?
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 09:26:58

11/14/2010 :|
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby deMolay » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 10:29:46

Summarize Please.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 10:34:35

Major release langauge for two or more Months starting on the 14th. 911 had about 2 day's of release langauge. Dollar Crashes - 11/14/2010....
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 13:19:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '1')1/14/2010 :|


Hope not. Way too soon. I need about another year before hyperinflation doom. I'm not ready. :|
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 13:26:17

None of us are ready for this, even those so called survivalists.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 15:03:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Expatriot', '[')b]Your knowledge of economics is on par with your knowledge of Con Law.


This thread is an open invitation for folks who think they may have a better understanding of the situation to go ahead and give their analysis. Your opening insult is neither necessary nor relevant -- let your arguments stand for themselves Ex.

Anyway, this is a discussion not an argument. Let's see if we can try to cooperatively figure out what's going on.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t this point, the concept of "U.S. Treasury Bonds" is obsolete, as the Fed can now simply add dollars to a U.S. Govt. bank account and skip the charade.
U.S. dollar is losing value faster than a pumpkin on the 1st of November.


Problem there though is that other nations DON'T WANT their currency worth too much more than the dollar -- it hurts their exports. They have central banks and printing presses too, Ex. So I think we'd fall into a global devaluation situation, the "race to the bottom" that's been mentioned so many times on this forum.

So if everyone else cranks up their printing presses to devalue at pace with the dollar, then how is it possible the dollar could really crash? Don't forget China outright pegs their currency to our dollar. There's no way the rest of the world would tolerate an ultralow American AND Chinese currency. That would give us and China too much advantage with exports.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')oreigners stop accepting U.S. Dollars.
Holders of dollar priced assets sell into other currencies.
Value of U.S. dollar heads toward zero.


That can't happen as long as the dollar remains the petrodollar and is the world reserve currency. If the world decides to get out of it and into a new reserve currency then that will TAKE SOME TIME, probably years. Assuming it can be done at all -- there are countless trillions out there in international reserves; it would take decades to safely cash out without hyperinflating whatever currency they move into.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course it's possible that the Fed won't simply buy more bonds when foreigners start dumping - then you have a bond crisis that forces rates way up.


That's still up to the Fed. If they choose to, they can EVERY US BOND and force rates to remain low. That's what QE2 is all about after all, keeping rates low and therefore trying to force investors into the stock market, real estate, and commodities (that last one is going to really hurt, a commodities bubble. :( ).
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Unread postby AgentR » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 15:14:42

The FED is actually doing a quite artful job of keeping domestic markets stable while making it horribly painful for outside markets to play hardball against US exports. Simple rule to remember, what makes imports more expensive here, also makes our exports more competitive.

Its also a "shot across the bow" to any international bankers that might be tempted to use their US Bond reserves as a weapon against the US economy, essentially saying, yep, you can try; but the FED *will* buy them even if no one else will. ie, if you try to dump a trillion in US bonds, we'll print a piece of paper with 12 zeros on it and give it to you. At that point, you can either try to buy something overseas with it... or you can.. BUY AMERICAN!

It does kinda stink for US consumers since our non-optional purchases, basic fuel and food could get notably more expensive; but matched against the general deflationary pressure of our current depression cycle, you can end up with only modest inflation. I don't think Glenn Beck has much of a leg to stand on trying to suggest that people should stockpile food ahead of time though. The US produces a *vast* amount of food internally, that isn't likely to change; and the whole nature of AFDC/Food Stamps is that it prevents the ag economy chain from grinding to a halt over disruptions.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 15:27:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ut matched against the general deflationary pressure of our current depression cycle, you can end up with only modest inflation.


I think we are about ready to go pop!
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Mesuge » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 15:52:55

AgentR> What an informed post :roll:

There are almost no U.S. exports to be worry about these days, perhaps except grains, blackbox stuff like fighterjets for NATO/Israel and Saudis, in terms of the other stuff which is the 95% plus bulk of trade, it's almost ALL done now in China, India, Brazil, Europe. The former family jewels like civil airline industry is outsourcing fast too.

At this point of time, Fed-Goldman-US.gov moles criminal syndicate is ONLY worried about keeping the shuffle of virtual paper around the world alive and blocking inrush repatriation of dollars, which could have result in hyperinflation, i.e. Weimar event.

These chinese are in this reset for a long haul, they dump the petrodollar in little drops, each day in various ways, accumulate industry know-how along the way, the "west" is or soon enough won't be needed at all. The Fedsters know that, they just try kick the can of implosion some time into the future. However, there is always the possibility that Langley-Pentagon friends rush to the scene helping with some false flag trigger.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby AgentR » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 19:37:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'T')here are almost no U.S. exports to be worry about these days, perhaps except grains, blackbox stuff like fighterjets for NATO/Israel and Saudis...


Right.

First off, I love these statements like, "we export next to nothing, except ABC..."

When ABC happens to be both huge, and vastly more important than than nearly any of the junk we import.

So lets see, in 2009. (source wiki: "Economy_of_the_United_States")
exports $1.057 trillion f.o.b (2009 est.)[6]
Export goods agricultural products (soybeans, fruit, corn) 9.2%, industrial supplies (organic chemicals) 26.8%, capital goods (transistors, aircraft, motor vehicle parts, computers, telecommunications equipment) 49.0%, consumer goods (automobiles, medicines) 15.0% (2009)

There are more than a few countries that don't even have total economies to match what we export.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t this point of time, Fed-Goldman-US.gov moles criminal syndicate is ONLY worried


To suggest that the FED is a criminal organization, implies that they are breaking the law; when in point of fact, they are performing the task that congress mandated them to perform, and its even constitutionally more solid than just about any action of congress recently past. Congress is specifically authorized by the constitution to produce the currency; congress established the FED to do just that. Short of making elected representatives drive down to the printing shops and crank the wheel on a press; thats a direct fulfillment of a specific, constitutionally required, responsibility.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')bout keeping the shuffle of virtual paper around the world alive and blocking inrush repatriation of dollars, which could have result in hyperinflation, i.e. Weimar event.


Thats the job. To keep an adequate but non-inflationary, non-deflationary amount of currency in the market.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hese chinese are in this reset for a long haul, they dump the petrodollar in little drops, each day in various ways, accumulate industry know-how along the way, the "west" is or soon enough won't be needed at all.


Is that a bad thing? Do you resent the Chinese building up their own country in order to create a domestically driven production and consumption economy? They are worse off than us on the oil side, but probably a bit better off on the "willing to use coal" side. I see no reason why I should want an impoverished, destitute China.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby diemos » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 19:46:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'I') see no reason why I should want an impoverished, destitute China.


World oil production is flat. Therefore every increase in Chinese oil consumption has to be matched by a decrease in our oil consumption.

Not that I resent them for this, but its just a mathematical fact. In a resource constrained world the Chinese standard of living can only go up by having ours go down.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 19:53:53

Glenn Beck will reveal "The Puppetmasters" on Monday. I'm guessing it's not going to be about the Republican Koch, Scaife, Cheneys, Bushes, or Coors. No I'm guessing Glenn will be talking about Jews, Jews, Jews.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 20:25:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'G')lenn Beck will reveal "The Puppetmasters" on Monday. I'm guessing it's not going to be about the Republican Koch, Scaife, Cheneys, Bushes, or Coors. No I'm guessing Glenn will be talking about Jews, Jews, Jews.



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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby AgentR » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 21:04:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', 'N')ot that I resent them for this, but its just a mathematical fact. In a resource constrained world the Chinese standard of living can only go up by having ours go down.


Not exactly. It depends on how you define standard of living too. Do we define it based upon US Dollar income? If so, I'd bet big that it will barely twitch. Do we define it based upon how many hours of manual labor each individual gets to leverage as a result of unfair trade policies that make millions of Chinese basic handcraft servants of American clerical workers? Then yeah, there'll be some significant adjustment.

I don't think thats a bad thing at all.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby AgentR » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 21:11:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'G')lenn Beck will reveal "The Puppetmasters" on Monday. I'm guessing it's not going to be about the Republican Koch, Scaife, Cheneys, Bushes, or Coors. No I'm guessing Glenn will be talking about Jews, Jews, Jews.


I really despise this sort of reasoning though. If Beck is lambasting bankers (unfairly in my book), and he's gonna name some random sampling of known players; if a representative sample of the usual suspects has a higher percentage of Jewish people than the general population; then you're stuck with a choice between two repulsive presentations; one, you name your usual suspects, and they happen to look more Jewish than average; or you manipulate your list of usual suspects to artificially reduce its "Jewish" content.

In selecting from a small pool, in any high tier profession, statistical aberrations are to be expected. Do you manipulate them in order to counter charges of stereotyping, or do you run with a representative sampling leaving yourself defenseless against a charge of stereotyping.

Personally, I think this whole, "get the bankers" thing is dumb. We get to relax in a state of luxury unmatched through human history, due in no small part to the magic they do with currency.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby dinopello » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 21:20:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'O')h yes yes. Keep drinking the Obama Koolaid.


How did Kool-Aid get the publicity for that? Flavor Aid must be kicking itself.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 22:10:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'G')lenn Beck will reveal "The Puppetmasters" on Monday. I'm guessing it's not going to be about the Republican Koch, Scaife, Cheneys, Bushes, or Coors. No I'm guessing Glenn will be talking about Jews, Jews, Jews.

I will send you a box of homemade cookies if you aren't right! :)
How could I forget the other puppetmaster - Rupert Murdoch, hyping right wing politicians in Europe, North America, and Australia. It's like we're all supposed to politely pretend these people don't exist while Beck creates this smoke screen.
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