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Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck'

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 08:00:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', 'I') wonder how Americans are going to react when they are jobless, homeless, without property, can't get food at the grocery store, can't get fuel to even operate a vehicle(if they still have one), can't get medicine or basic medical care, won't be getting the social security or 401K that they paid into their entire lives, and have no prospects for future advancement for either themselves or their offspring... while their 'leaders' continue living with a resource footprint that is enough to be unsustainable all by itself.


My suspicion/fear is that we will resort to a totalitarian system that will "Make the trains run on time." There will be "temporary" loss of freedom in order "...to restore America to her former glory and rightful place as the world's leader."

Then we will be done with all this annoying election cycle stuff ......................
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 08:20:04

Some folks seem to think that would be a good idea because it will make the collapse happen faster....

:(
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 16:03:35

besides a tiller, everybody needs an axe, a couple picks, and a couple big iron digging bars for the day when everyone realizes they need to massacre all the ornamental trees in the neighborhood.
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 16:11:15

(pssst - you don't really need a tiller. I've never had one. :) )
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby dinopello » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 16:20:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '(')pssst - you don't really need a tiller. I've never had one. :) )


Ludi - friend of the worms :)
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 20:00:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'Y')ep, the price of commodities/PMs could go a bit higher, but the idea it's going to appreciate by another factor of 10-60x is just ridiculous. That would shut down large part of the productive economy, i.e. massive return to bare mining even inside OECD countries.


It doesn't sound so ridiculous when you find out the amount of paper certificates in circulation, versus the amount of actual, physical specie that exists. Also account for the FED making attempts to keep the price of physical metal suppressed, or that historically, even today, each ounce of gold buys a lot less than it did 150 years ago.

The only problem is timing; gold and silver could have lots of ups and downs between now and then.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, this would be certainly prevented/regulated even by countries like Russia, China, Brazil, which will have a say in the future global currency system order, most likely another rehash of fiat, partly backed by PMs.

Well, he who invested in gold 10yrs ago for ~300bucks, won't be sorry, that's for sure. But there are not that many people, most of them are late commers at much higher price. Gold/PM as sort of wealth preserving safe harbor during the system reset, ok, but don't count on anything more. Even that's sheer speculation and in many countries, you will be "separated" from such obnoxious profits in due time, especially in case of large war or system shutdown is in the cards.


In the U.S. at least, should inflation become too large of a problem to ignore, there will be major shortages sometime in the future. There isn't enough to even back up paper certificates, where owners of said certificates think they own physical metal. If large numbers of people decide to cash in certificates for physical metal, this alone will cause a massive price spike, at least in the U.S. If the U.S. goes Wiemar, the demand will be even more pronounced precisely because people want to preserve wealth, exacerbating the shortage, and leading to an increased price.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 20:28:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'B')ack on track: isn't this, now, a fiscal train wreck? Some idiots expect QE2-induced inflation and another economic bubble (in what? green tech, GMO's, robotics? What?) to bail us out once again. Don't people understand that that stuff is not sustainable on a finite planet :evil:


I expect QE2-induced inflation, but the 'bubble' won't bail us out; I think that bubble, if it occurs, may exist in a fictional entity, such as the stock market... there is the possibility of another war bubble as well.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 21:11:03

I expect a Green Bubble. I don't expect another war bubble, but I could be wrong. :(
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 21:51:41

I'm hoping for a green bubble, so I can make back some of the money I lost in green investments. Like American Solar.

The whole energy sector has taken a hit. Directional drilling - slammed.

I also bought into HVDC suppliers thinking that made sense, NOT.

Don't look to me for financial advice, I can turn $1 into 50 cents any day of the week.

Funny thing is, they call a boat a "Hole in the water you throw money into." I wish my stocks held their value as well as my boat.

The only investment that seems to have done OK is the land I bought.
When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 23:51:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') expect a Green Bubble. I don't expect another war bubble, but I could be wrong. :(
If the GOP sticks with its current script, we'll be invading the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia, and Poland.

Heads up guys, incoming!
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby Mesuge » Wed 03 Nov 2010, 08:45:53

Preston> I see where your are comming from, but the example provided is rather unfortunate and silly, e.g. Czechoslovakia split into two nation states 2decades ago, now is the entire Central european region part of the EU, but only few members in the eurozone. Besides, the GOP already owns Central Europe in political terms. Neocons of various stripes (pseudo liberal and pseudo socidal democratic or pseudo green) have been ruling there for past 20yrs. Not mentioning the eurospine, Paris-Berlin, which is currently neocon-lite.

You see the professional non-idelogue commie class of this region just switched coats briefly and during the 1989, mostly because they couldn't continue in legaly and effectively enriching more in the current socio-economic system, the villas & BMWs were getting ridiculous in the sight.

They simply re-named themselves "capitalists", stripped assets from the national industries, sold it for pennies to western interest, as result most of their traditional brands went belly up or ended up as a mere subcontractors, later the enlargment of the EU was basically a finishing touch of "hostile" market share take over. Good for us, i.e. the workers and wealthy class in the west got some boost and room for so-so growth and expansion with the extra millions of consumers.

The political cover was sort of cold-war pennis enlargment, silly anti-russian and anti-commie propaganda, day after day, year after year, people used to fall for it, despite the russians were dirt lowriding zombies, till rise of the fossil prices in the early 2000s.

Now its more like first stages of desillusion, they are realizing they don't own their nation anymore (streets, industry, media-culture) . But it's too
late, the new gen elite is even smarter and settled at all levels rather securly, it's the foreign investment/assets servicing class. The public won't revolt or demand structural changes, basically they inhaled that "perhaps one day I'll strike it lucky" virus, and are enjoying mindless shopping and TV soap/Your local retard has got a talent franchise. It's nothing new or shocking, this story replayed so many times around the globe, with some tiny regional nuances.
People are gullible retards and will (almost) always sell their own grandma to the devil for cash, if the price "is made to seem" right, i.e. slightly above obvious rip off, but still very cheap.
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby Mesuge » Wed 03 Nov 2010, 09:41:09

Toe> I agree with your point, aware of the disparity between real wealth assets and mountain of funny paper credit/derivatives/money. On face of it you can theoretically say, wiping out the bubbles and virtual credit, automatically makes today's gold 10-60x more valuable. Well, my take on it is, this is only partly true, most likely such "reset event" could materialize as only short lived spike, before the world settles on new fiat, be it partly based on metals. Because gold/silver with such radical appreciation would immediately freeze the global trade and perhaps even the productive industry as new mining fever lands, that's not what is in the best interest of former, present, or future PTB, and frankly the public anyway..
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby Pops » Wed 03 Nov 2010, 13:45:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')on't people understand that that stuff is not sustainable on a finite planet :evil:

Man, to the average person that gibberish is so left coast you'd need to be neck deep in Humbolt bay to get further out there.

Out here in the midwest, everyone knows all that crap is just a plot by Gore to get rich. God gave us dominion and we'll by God exercise it.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby Timo » Wed 03 Nov 2010, 13:53:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')on't people understand that that stuff is not sustainable on a finite planet :evil:

Man, to the average person that gibberish is so left coast you'd need to be neck deep in Humbolt bay to get further out there.

Out here in the midwest, everyone knows all that crap is just a plot by Gore to get rich. God gave us dominion and we'll by God exercise it.


......even if that exercise kills us in the process!
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Re: Nouriel Roubini: U.S. On Track For A 'Fiscal Train Wreck

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 03 Nov 2010, 15:19:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')on't people understand that that stuff is not sustainable on a finite planet :evil:

Man, to the average person that gibberish is so left coast you'd need to be neck deep in Humbolt bay to get further out there.

Out here in the midwest, everyone knows all that crap is just a plot by Gore to get rich. God gave us dominion and we'll by God exercise it.


......even if that exercise kills us in the process!


That's just the Tribulation. All part of God's Plan. :)
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