by The_Toecutter » Tue 02 Nov 2010, 20:00:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'Y')ep, the price of commodities/PMs could go a bit higher, but the idea it's going to appreciate by another factor of 10-60x is just ridiculous. That would shut down large part of the productive economy, i.e. massive return to bare mining even inside OECD countries.
It doesn't sound so ridiculous when you find out the amount of paper certificates in circulation, versus the amount of actual, physical specie that exists. Also account for the FED making attempts to keep the price of physical metal suppressed, or that historically, even today, each ounce of gold buys a lot less than it did 150 years ago.
The only problem is timing; gold and silver could have lots of ups and downs between now and then.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, this would be certainly prevented/regulated even by countries like Russia, China, Brazil, which will have a say in the future global currency system order, most likely another rehash of fiat, partly backed by PMs.
Well, he who invested in gold 10yrs ago for ~300bucks, won't be sorry, that's for sure. But there are not that many people, most of them are late commers at much higher price. Gold/PM as sort of wealth preserving safe harbor during the system reset, ok, but don't count on anything more. Even that's sheer speculation and in many countries, you will be "separated" from such obnoxious profits in due time, especially in case of large war or system shutdown is in the cards.
In the U.S. at least, should inflation become too large of a problem to ignore, there will be major shortages sometime in the future. There isn't enough to even back up paper certificates, where owners of said certificates think they own physical metal. If large numbers of people decide to cash in certificates for physical metal, this alone will cause a massive price spike, at least in the U.S. If the U.S. goes Wiemar, the demand will be even more pronounced precisely because people want to preserve wealth, exacerbating the shortage, and leading to an increased price.