[diemos]

LOL.

I was wondering if anyone would notice that the chart goes back about 50 billion years even though the earth itself is only 4 billion years old.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frood', '
')10^9 years is 1 billion years where 10^2 is 100 years. Are you seriously suggesting hominids were around during the creation of life? You are completely mad to even accept that graph of dribble.

[Carlhole]

The chart describes the long haul of evolution. "Key Events" are those related to greater information processing - such as development of language, cooperation, etc. Hominids are obviously part of this long haul evolution as are modern humans. The long trend of evolution continues today in the form of human science & technology.

You can't have an Olduvai Gorge if human Science & Technology continues to race ahead. No one has answered my years-long question: "If our imminent doom is assured, when will we see Peak Science?" Because there is sure no indication whatsoever that science is peaking in any way. In a crisis, the acceleration of sci/tech only increases.

[diemos]

Apparently they count the surface of the earth going from molten to solid to be one of those "key events". But I wouldn't count that as a "human innovation".

[Carlhole]

Excerpt

The above chart is the longest term chart that Kurzweil uses in his book, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology , in which he uses dozens of such charts that illustrate the observation that information technology advances exponentially. One such chart is the famous Moore's Law chart, another is the growth of patents, etc. There are a bunch of long-term charts that relate human technology growth charts and those of natural evolution. One of Kurzweil's theses in the book is that human scientific advancement is a natural continuation of prehistorical evolution down through the ages, He says that emergent new paradigms arise naturally and organically from increasingly complex organization.

I really can't do justice to the book in a serially-posted, online forum format like this. Some things you just have to read for yourself. You can probably find this book at the library. It's interesting and thought-provoking. Personally, I enjoyed his first book better, In The Age Of Spiritual Machines.

The Singularity Summit is being held this weekend, Aug 14 - 15th, 2010. Ray Kurzweil is giving a talk, The Mind And How To Build One, which was liveblogged at NextBigFuture.com

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is now a grand project comprising at least a hundred thousand scientists and engineers working in diverse ways to understand the best example we have of an intelligent process: the human brain. It is arguably the most important project in the history of the human-machine civilization. The goal of the project is to understand precisely how the human brain works, and then to use these revealed algorithms as a basis for creating even more intelligent machines.

As we learn the algorithms underlying human intelligence, we will similarly be able to engineer it to vastly extend the powers of our intelligence. Indeed this process is already well under way. There are literally hundreds of tasks and activities that used to be the sole province of human intelligence that can now be conducted by computers usually with greater precision and vastly greater scale.

Was it inevitable that a species would evolve that is capable of creating its own evolutionary process in the form of intelligent technology? I will argue that it was.

[frood]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ets examine the more reliable end of that graph then.

[Carlhole]

The depletion geeks use what data is available to them and make extrapolations too. We are all familiar with the charts and graphs put up by everyone over at TheOilDrum, all indicating a future of declining reserves. And we've all seen other charts that point to de-speciation, environmental degradation, etc. No one kicks up much of a fuss when all the statistical math whizzes over the Oil Drum post a chart.

Well, there is plenty of data from which to create charts about accelerating science too. But how can we have a strong, exponential trend of advancing science while we can also see some frightening energy and environment charts and graphs? -- two trends that point in opposite directions. How can this be?

These two trends derive from the same well of possibility: human populations and human sci/tech. Plotting a chart towards the so-called Singularity is no more error-prone than plotting a Depletion chart. Just stir in some mathematics, shake well, et viola.

Thus, we try to peer into our murky future but we know pretty much anything can happen and that almost everyone in the past who has ever tried to guess the future has been wrong or short-sighted. Why overestimate our own abilities? We are forced to look at present trends.

I don't think there WILL be any Olduvai Gorge. More likely that long-term evolutionary processes are at work. No reason to think that this will lead any sort of cornucopian future at all. Whatever wrenching changes the world is currently suffering from can be blamed on evolutionary forces hell-bent on getting more intelligent/aware. This seems to be the whole "point" of billions of smart social apes - but it won't last for long. The world won't need so many apes very soon.

[diemos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'P')lotting a chart towards the so-called Singularity is no more error-prone than plotting a Depletion chart.

[frood]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'T')he depletion geeks use what data is available to them and make extrapolations too. We are all familiar with the charts and graphs put up by everyone over at TheOilDrum, all indicating a near-term peak in global oil production. No one kicks up much of a fuss when all the math whizzes over there post a chart.

So how can we have a strong, exponential trend of advancing science while we can also see some frightening energy and environment charts and graphs at the same time? Two trends that appear to oppose one another. How can this be?

These two trends derive from the same well of possibility: human populations and human sci/tech. Plotting a chart towards the so-called Singularity is no more error-prone than plotting a Depletion chart.

Thus, we try to peer into our murky future but we know pretty much anything can happen and that almost everyone in the past who has ever tried to guess the future has been wrong or short-sighted. Why overestimate our own abilities? We are forced to look at present trends.

I don't think there WILL be any Olduvai Gorge. More likely that long-term evolutionary processes are at work. No reason to think that this will lead any sort of cornucopian future at all. Whatever wrenching changes the world is currently suffering from can be blamed on evolutionary forces hell-bent on getting more intelligent/aware. This seems to be the whole "point" of billions of smart social apes - but it won't last for long. The world won't need so many apes very soon.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frood', 'I') dont think you have a damn clue what you're talking about but Im getting a good laugh out of it nonetheless.

[Pops]

I saw this article today and thought of this thread, just substitute Miraculous New Energy Source Du Jour or The Singularity for "geo-engineering":

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Amor Mundi', 'N')o, I am saying that the futurological discourse of "geo-engineering" actually functions to create the appearance of a phenomenon where there is none, it functions as futurological frames tend to do as a derangement of sense, a distraction from substance onto non-substance, a substitute of frivolous over-generalities and hyperbolic promises for deliberation about actually complex, actually contingent technodevelopmental problems with a diversity of stakeholders.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '.').. just substitute Miraculous New Energy Source Du Jour or The Singularity for "geo-engineering"

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')Reverse-engineering the brain is exactly the kind of project that hundreds of thousands of minds (researchers) all over the world can participate in regardless of location. One of the stated goals of the Blue Brain Project is to create a supercomputer research facility devoted to this.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '.').. do you seriously believe that things like reverse engineering the human brain and all the other creative scientific projects ongoing can solve our problems before we see really serious consequences...

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ')We have many problems that are growing at an exponential rate, including global population, and as a species, we seem to have FRIGHTENINGLY little interest in taking meaningful action to mitigate such problems, or even admit that they are problems, frankly.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ')We have many problems that are growing at an exponential rate, including global population, and as a species, we seem to have FRIGHTENINGLY little interest in taking meaningful action to mitigate such problems, or even admit that they are problems, frankly.

[Ludi]

I'm not convinced the solutions to our problems are "technological." I often think they may be attitudinal - the primary solution to most of our problems (the "super-value concept") might be a recognition of the limits of the planet on which we live, a recognition which is not present in our culture, and is in fact blasphemy to the core ideas of our culture.

Unlike you, Newfie, I haven't managed to become 100% certain of anything, though I admit such an attitudinal change or major culture shift is probably as unlikely as the Singularity probably is.