Thanks fo joining our forum blue. You now I sometimes wonder if the concept of Peak Oil will ever catch. It's possible that the economic effects of Peak Oil will always mask and trump the unerlying geologic poblem of diminishing global poduction. In other words, 20 percent unemployment, social unrest and ten dollar loaves of bead will always make bigger headlines than expensive oil.
It truly would require global shortages, hording and extremely expensive gas for the MSM to run it page 1 day after day...and even then I could see the underlying geological depletion obfuscated by a geopolitical smokescreen such as war, embargoes, etc.
In this climate, the term Peak Oil may never catch.
PeakOil is You
Mainstream Peak Oil
Re: Mainstream Peak Oil
by sparky » Fri 25 Jun 2010, 00:20:19
.
nobody will ever see the economic consequences of Peak Oil ,
but everyone will see the economic of the never ending recession ,
which will drive oil consumption down .
no more cheap oil .....no more easy growth
less oil ... more jobless
we are now at the foothills of the Peak Misery ,
it probably will take one hundred year to see the worst of it , if we are lucky
.
nobody will ever see the economic consequences of Peak Oil ,
but everyone will see the economic of the never ending recession ,
which will drive oil consumption down .
no more cheap oil .....no more easy growth
less oil ... more jobless
we are now at the foothills of the Peak Misery ,
it probably will take one hundred year to see the worst of it , if we are lucky
.
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sparky - Intermediate Crude
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil
by eXpat » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 14:03:53
This article/report is as mainstream as you can wish, but 
still not catching on, they may realize that something is amiss when the lights go out.
Lloyd's adds its voice to dire 'peak oil' warnings
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')usiness underestimating catastrophic consequences of declining oil, says Lloyd's of London/Chatham House report
One of the City's most respected institutions has warned of "catastrophic consequences" for businesses that fail to prepare for a world of increasing oil scarcity and a lower carbon economy.
The Lloyd's insurance market and the highly regarded Royal Institute of International Affairs, known as Chatham House, says Britain needs to be ready for "peak oil" and disrupted energy supplies at a time of soaring fuel demand in China and India, constraints on production caused by the BP oil spill and political moves to cut CO2 to halt global warming.
"Companies which are able to take advantage of this new energy reality will increase both their resilience and competitiveness. Failure to do so could lead to expensive and potentially catastrophic consequences," says the Lloyd's and Chatham House report "Sustainable energy security: strategic risks and opportunities for business".
The insurance market has a major interest in preparedness to counter climate change because of the fear of rising insurance claims related to property damage and business disruption. The review is groundbreaking because it comes from the heart of the City and contains the kind of dire warnings that are more associated with environmental groups or others accused by critics of resorting to hype. It takes a pot shot at the International Energy Agency which has been under fire for apparently under-estimating the threats, noting: "IEA expectations [on crude output] over the last decade have generally gone unmet."
The report the world is heading for a global oil supply crunch and high prices owing to insufficient investment in oil production plus a rebound in global demand following recession. It repeats warning from Professor Paul Stevens, a former economist from Dundee University, at an earlier Chatham House conference that lack of oil by 2013 could force the price of crude above $200 (£130) a barrel.
It also quotes from a US department of energy report highlighting the economic chaos that would result from declining oil production as global demand continued to rise, recommending a crash programme to overhaul the transport system. "Even before we reach peak oil," says the Lloyd's report, "we could witness an oil supply crunch because of increased Asian demand. Major new investment in energy takes 10-15 years from the initial investment to first production, and to date we have not seen the amount of new projects that would supply the projected increase in demand."
still not catching on, they may realize that something is amiss when the lights go out.Lloyd's adds its voice to dire 'peak oil' warnings
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')usiness underestimating catastrophic consequences of declining oil, says Lloyd's of London/Chatham House report
One of the City's most respected institutions has warned of "catastrophic consequences" for businesses that fail to prepare for a world of increasing oil scarcity and a lower carbon economy.
The Lloyd's insurance market and the highly regarded Royal Institute of International Affairs, known as Chatham House, says Britain needs to be ready for "peak oil" and disrupted energy supplies at a time of soaring fuel demand in China and India, constraints on production caused by the BP oil spill and political moves to cut CO2 to halt global warming.
"Companies which are able to take advantage of this new energy reality will increase both their resilience and competitiveness. Failure to do so could lead to expensive and potentially catastrophic consequences," says the Lloyd's and Chatham House report "Sustainable energy security: strategic risks and opportunities for business".
The insurance market has a major interest in preparedness to counter climate change because of the fear of rising insurance claims related to property damage and business disruption. The review is groundbreaking because it comes from the heart of the City and contains the kind of dire warnings that are more associated with environmental groups or others accused by critics of resorting to hype. It takes a pot shot at the International Energy Agency which has been under fire for apparently under-estimating the threats, noting: "IEA expectations [on crude output] over the last decade have generally gone unmet."
The report the world is heading for a global oil supply crunch and high prices owing to insufficient investment in oil production plus a rebound in global demand following recession. It repeats warning from Professor Paul Stevens, a former economist from Dundee University, at an earlier Chatham House conference that lack of oil by 2013 could force the price of crude above $200 (£130) a barrel.
It also quotes from a US department of energy report highlighting the economic chaos that would result from declining oil production as global demand continued to rise, recommending a crash programme to overhaul the transport system. "Even before we reach peak oil," says the Lloyd's report, "we could witness an oil supply crunch because of increased Asian demand. Major new investment in energy takes 10-15 years from the initial investment to first production, and to date we have not seen the amount of new projects that would supply the projected increase in demand."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jul/11/peak-oil-energy-disruption
Here is the link to download the paper btw http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/891/
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
“You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
George Bernard Shaw
“You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil
by Xenophobe » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 14:06:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'T')his article/report is as mainstream as you can wish, but still not catching on, they may realize that something is amiss when the lights go out.
still not catching on, they may realize that something is amiss when the lights go out.Most crude is used for transport, chemical feedstock and related type systems rather than for creating electricity. I didn't read the report but did they seriously suggest that crude production is related to electricity generation to keep the lights on?
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil
by eXpat » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 14:28:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'T')his article/report is as mainstream as you can wish, but still not catching on, they may realize that something is amiss when the lights go out.
still not catching on, they may realize that something is amiss when the lights go out.Most crude is used for transport, chemical feedstock and related type systems rather than for creating electricity. I didn't read the report but did they seriously suggest that crude production is related to electricity generation to keep the lights on?
No, it was just a figure of speech, however you touch an important subject there, i would like to point the following parts of the Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2010 (available here: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/s ... tions.aspx)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')• Overall primary fuel consumption was not met by indigenous production; this continues the trend from 2004 when the UK again became a net importer of fuel. The UK imported more coal, manufactured fuels, crude oil, electricity and gas than it exported; however the UK remained a net exporter of petroleum products.
• With the coal-gas price differential again high, the commercial attractiveness of gas for electricity generation remained high, while the amount of electricity generated from coal fell further, as nuclear stations returned from the outages of 2008 to increase output. Gas accounted for 45 per cent of electricity supplied in 2009, with coal accounting for 28 per cent and nuclear 18 per cent.
Main energy production and trade statistics:
• Primary energy production in the United Kingdom in 2009, at 166.9 million tonnes of oil equivalent, was 5.7 per cent lower than in 2008. Production has now fallen in each year since 1999, and is down 43.9 per cent on 1999 levels, an average rate of decline of 5.6 per cent.
• Gross natural gas production fell 14.3 per cent in 2009. Gross natural gas production has fallen by 45 per cent since its peak in 2000. Net imports of gas accounted for a third of gas input into the transmission system. LNG imports accounted for a quarter of gas imports compared to 2% in 2008.
• Crude oil (including NGLs) production in 2009 was 4.8 per cent lower than in 2008 at 68 million tonnes, and now accounts for 45 per cent of indigenous energy production.
• Coal production was 1.0 per cent lower in 2009 compared to 2008. Imports of coal were also lower compared to 2008 (by 13.0 per cent). These decreases coupled with a rise in stock levels has led to a 16.2 per cent fall in total coal supply in 2009 (48.8 million tonnes).
Main electricity generation and supply statistics:
• There was a 5.3 per cent decrease in the total supply of electricity in the UK in 2009 to 378.5 TWh. This is the fourth successive year that total electricity supply has fallen. Indigenous electricity supply fell by 3.3 per cent and net imports of electricity fell by three quarters to 3 TWh caused by lower imports and higher exports.
• Energy industries’ use of electricity fell by 1.8 per cent in 2009 to 29.4 TWh. Final consumption of electricity fell by 5.7 per cent to 322.4 TWh.
• The domestic sector was the largest electricity consumer in 2009 (122.5 TWh), while the industrial sector consumed 98.1 TWh, and the service sector consumed 93.0 TWh. Domestic consumption decreased by 2.6 per cent and industrial consumption decreased by 10.3 per cent.
Add into the mix a global oil supply crunch and increasing high prices into our current recession and you don´t get a pretty picture (we went into more detail in previous threads, about how interconnected the system is).
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
“You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
George Bernard Shaw
“You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
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