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Mainstream Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 23 May 2010, 00:42:53

Or find a politician who does not promote "growth."
When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby Anders » Sun 23 May 2010, 03:42:22

I believe mainstream media and politicians are on purpose suppressing information about peak oil, because to admit it and start publishing a lot of news about peak oil could have a catastrophic effect on the economy. Not good.

Even things like the climate change debate, and the economic recession are really about peak oil I think, but that the politicians will not admit that. The climate change debate for example is an attempt to reduce oil consumption to meet the global reduction of oil production increase.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby hillsidedigger » Sun 23 May 2010, 10:04:19

I read a few message boards mostly of the gardening variety and it seems many, particularly rightwingers, still regard the concept of peak-oil as a conspiritorial lie by the oil companies, OPEC and others just to squeeze more money out of little Americans. They still believe there's plenty of domestic oil if we would just eliminate minimum wage laws, unions, the EPA, OSHA, the Clean Water Act, the Clean Air Act, etc. including opening all wilderness and offshore areas to drilling and just let American industry work unhindered.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 23 May 2010, 10:08:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', 'I') believe mainstream media and politicians are on purpose suppressing information about peak oil, because to admit it and start publishing a lot of news about peak oil could have a catastrophic effect on the economy. Not good.


After having investigated just this concept, I am forced to disagree.

Whether its called "peak oil" over the past 2 decades, or "running out" before that, the concept has been explored in books, covered by websites since the www was invented, shows up in newsgroups, and was announced by Presidents of the United States stretching back to the 70's, Interior Secretary's back in the 40's and speculated on by industry experts in the 1880's, its always the same thing. We don't have enough, its running out fast, people are wasting it, it should be left in the ground for our grandchildren, the horror the horror.

The economy didn't stop when these people announced it, no reason why it should pay much attention to the current round of Chicken Littles ( a term of endearment) either.

Now....let peak oil finally getting around to causing some decent shortages, rationing, interfere with the soccer moms and their ability to acquire or operate an SUV, and the economy might not crash but people will certainly NOTICE something.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
')Even things like the climate change debate, and the economic recession are really about peak oil I think, but that the politicians will not admit that. The climate change debate for example is an attempt to reduce oil consumption to meet the global reduction of oil production increase.


That would be one of those agendas I referred to elsewhere, but its a bit time dependent. Back in the 70's when we were supposed to be entering the new ice age the relationship wasn't there at the time...as peak oil is used as a "green" excuse they do tend to integrate more than they used to.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby Anders » Sun 23 May 2010, 11:00:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', 'I') believe mainstream media and politicians are on purpose suppressing information about peak oil, because to admit it and start publishing a lot of news about peak oil could have a catastrophic effect on the economy. Not good.


After having investigated just this concept, I am forced to disagree. ... The economy didn't stop when these people announced it, no reason why it should pay much attention to the current round of Chicken Littles ( a term of endearment) either.


The plateau in global oil production since 2005 shows probably that the production cannot easily be increased as much as in the past. That's a very serious situation, especially when large nations like India and China are expanding their economies fast at the moment. And I suspect (although this is a bit of a conspiracy theory) that even the trillion dollar and euro bailouts have in reality been used behind the public scene to sneakily subsidize the oil price, plus that large oil importers like the U.S., China and EU are cooperating in a cartel-like way to do bid rigging on the oil market. That's how serious I believe the actual situation is. And if the public finds out the real situation, including business leaders and other people in positions of power, then that can have catastrophic consequences for economies the world over.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 23 May 2010, 11:46:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', 'I') believe mainstream media and politicians are on purpose suppressing information about peak oil, because to admit it and start publishing a lot of news about peak oil could have a catastrophic effect on the economy. Not good.


After having investigated just this concept, I am forced to disagree. ... The economy didn't stop when these people announced it, no reason why it should pay much attention to the current round of Chicken Littles ( a term of endearment) either.


The plateau in global oil production since 2005 shows probably that the production cannot easily be increased as much as in the past.


Maybe. Maybe not. Lets say for the sake of argument I agree with you. So what? For 5 years lack of new supply has been so horrifying earth shattering that.....crude oil is still priced less than it was during the real energy crisis's of the 70's. To date, the hype has been pretty intense...the reality...much less so.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
')That's a very serious situation, especially when large nations like India and China are expanding their economies fast at the moment. And I suspect (although this is a bit of a conspiracy theory) that even the trillion dollar and euro bailouts have in reality been used behind the public scene to sneakily subsidize the oil price, plus that large oil importers like the U.S., China and EU are cooperating in a cartel-like way to do bid rigging on the oil market. That's how serious I believe the actual situation is. And if the public finds out the real situation, including business leaders and other people in positions of power, then that can have catastrophic consequences for economies the world over.


I agree the situation is serious, oil is a valuable commodity. People believed the situation was serious in the 70's as well, Jimmy started entire departments of the US government to keep track of it, banned the use of fossil fuels for certain uses, it was very serious. The most current peak? Not as serious as that. Sure, there are cartels, the developing nations are developing (as opposed to the developed nations which reached peak demand some time ago, like perhaps the US finally has) and the story of the next decade or two will be increased use of crude in developing countries and less use of crude in developed countries. Seems reasonable, and while the transition might be disconcerting to some, others won't even notice. In the US for example, smart commuters (such as myself) are already prepared for sky high gasoline prices while others (drive till you quality on their mortgage types) might be absolutely wrecked if gasoline hits European style prices. Bummer for them...they'll certainly pay more attention next time won't they? I certainly don't feel sorry for them. So "serious" can be defined as "more serious" for them, and much "less serious" for those who are aware of the problem. Living through the peak oil in 1979 certainly taught me this lesson young. To bad people don't study history, otherwise they would already know how to prepare for this.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby Anders » Sun 23 May 2010, 12:04:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
')The plateau in global oil production since 2005 shows probably that the production cannot easily be increased as much as in the past.


Maybe. Maybe not. Lets say for the sake of argument I agree with you. So what? For 5 years lack of new supply has been so horrifying earth shattering that.....crude oil is still priced less than it was during the real energy crisis's of the 70's. To date, the hype has been pretty intense...the reality...much less so.


The difference is that an actual global oil production plateau has possibly been reached now. In the past, the problem of insufficient oil supply could be fixed by importing from other countries. Today, the economy is very much global, and there are no oil exporters who can increase their production to match the oil needed to sustain the economic growth model that worked in the past.

And to make matters worse, oil exporting nations will be inclined to priority their internal oil consumption and protection which can make it even more difficult for countries dependent on oil import to sustain their economies.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 23 May 2010, 12:29:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')For 5 years lack of new supply has been so horrifying earth shattering that.....crude oil is still priced less than it was during the real energy crisis's of the 70's. To date, the hype has been pretty intense...the reality...much less so.


The difference is that an actual global oil production plateau has been reached now.


Sounds like a distinction without a difference to me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', ' ')
In the past, the problem of insufficient oil supply could be fixed by importing from other countries.


Or finding more locally ...or substituting something else....or using less....or making crude from natural gas or coal....etc etc.

An economist might venture that finding more supply certainly isn't the only solution to a shortage. And they would be right.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
')Today, the economy is very much global, and there is no oil exporters who can increase their production to match the oil needed to sustain the economic growth model that worked in the past.


Good thing that modern economic systems don't require only solutions which worked in the past then. "Preparing to fight the last war" would be the cliche which seems to cover this angle pretty well. I have made the statement before, and continue to believe it, that crude oil is currently obsolete, it just doesn't know it yet. We've got plenty, but our ability to substitute, conserve, become more efficient and change our behavior in the transport sector is far more powerful than an oilfields ability to naturally decline.

The climate changers agenda alone and the carbon cycle arguments are going to drive the change away from oil, and then you add on the environmental concerns (which have become obvious to everyone along the Gulf Coast as of late) and overall cost and the entire political agenda about "giving money to our enemies" and its a wonderful motivator to make oil obsolete. Which I believe it is....but I have a much better macro view of these things then others. :-D

Here's the real question...what happens when that demand destruction is STRUCTURAL in nature, rather than just behavioral? What happens when for every barrel Saudi Arabia doesn't produce to try and stabilize the price, we decide to use 1.1 barrels less? They end up with lots of oil they can't sell at their asking price, and until they are willing to accept the lower price, we don't care.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
')And to make matters worse, oil exporting nations will be inclined to priority their internal oil consumption and protection which can make it even more difficult for countries dependent on oil import to sustain their economies.

Economies aren't built on oil consumption, they are built on energy consumption. A distinction WITH a difference.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby Anders » Sun 23 May 2010, 12:49:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'E')conomies aren't built on oil consumption, they are built on energy consumption. A distinction WITH a difference.


The whole developed world is critically dependent on oil. I suspect that politicians in the know are more concerned about peak oil than they will admit. The silence about peak oil in mainstream media and among politicians to me means that either there is no major problem with oil supply now or in the near future, or, the problem is so huge that they actively suppress information about the reality of the oil situation in the world. I tend to believe in the latter.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 23 May 2010, 13:15:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'E')conomies aren't built on oil consumption, they are built on energy consumption. A distinction WITH a difference.


The whole developed world is critically dependent on oil.


"Critical" is a relative concept. In the US, most of "criticalness" consists of American soccer mom demanding to drive 2-1/2 tons of steel, glass, rubber and plastic around to collect their 60# child at school or to ball practice. Or people who think nothing of driving 150 miles per day commuting to a job they don't like to sustain a lifestyle which requires (to them, being silly American consumers) 1000 sq ft. of room per person in their domicile. Ridiculous doesn't begin to describe our behavior...."critical" isn't the equivalent of "necessary" by any stretch of the imagination.

Burning crude, a wonderful chemical feedstock, for a transport fuel is like burning Picasso's to heat your house. When we Americans do stupid, we do it BIGTIME.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
')I suspect that politicians in the know are more concerned about peak oil than they will admit.


Politicians, in the know, admitted we were running out decades ago....and lets face it, a politician nowadays, proclaiming nearly ANYTHING, isn't going to be believed anyway. Now, let peak oil finally get around to create shortages, THAT matters.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
')The silence about peak oil in mainstream media and among politicians to me means that either there is no major problem with oil supply now or in the near future, or, the problem is so huge that they actively suppress information about the reality of the oil situation in the world. I tend to believe in the latter.


Peak oil is in the mainstream media all the time (depending on how you wish to define mainstream of course). Heck, its in the media so often they even have op ed's against it. Lynch usually doing a better job than most. The New York Times MSM enough?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opini ... ef=opinion
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby Anders » Sun 23 May 2010, 13:24:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Peak oil is in the mainstream media all the time (depending on how you wish to define mainstream of course). Heck, its in the media so often they even have op ed's against it. Lynch usually doing a better job than most. The New York Times MSM enough?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opini ... ef=opinion


I disagree. The big media networks are very silent about peak oil. And for example Barack Obama has never as far as I know publicly even mentioned anything near something like peak oil (except the climate change excuse, which is in reality a smokescreen for dealing with the peak oil problem I think [plus recently he used the oil slick problem to propose reducing oil consumption which is also a bit suspicious because he is still silent about the real reason]).
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby eXpat » Sun 23 May 2010, 13:45:10

Pops, I think a better question is: what has people been conditioned to believe?
And here is my answer: people, all over the world, has been conditioned to believe (the generations after WW2 that is) that they are the center of the universe, everything spins arounds them, even (to my surprise) in the 3rd world, and nothing, absolutely nothing, can stop the glorious path to a better future.
People that lives in the developed world think that nothing can stop the way to progress, is there a economical/financial crisis?, is just something temporary, that will let us "experience a bit of poverty" (like when you are in Uni) and then the great historical path to progress will resume. Is there a limit with the production of oil our civilization requires? no problem, alternative energy sources like: solar, ocean wave energy, wind, nuclear, etc. will step in to keep us cozy (without giving a second though about the impact of oil in this alternatives sources).
Much to my surprise, people in the developing word believe exactly the same!, they are in the lookout for economic or political news that affect their lives, but the very fundations of it, is taken for granted.
People will realize how dire is the situation after a week without electricity...
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
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“You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 23 May 2010, 14:38:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Peak oil is in the mainstream media all the time (depending on how you wish to define mainstream of course). Heck, its in the media so often they even have op ed's against it. Lynch usually doing a better job than most. The New York Times MSM enough?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opini ... ef=opinion


I disagree. The big media networks are very silent about peak oil.


Are you sure? I've already provided a NYT op-ed.

The Washington Post?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 02456.html

Fox News?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,266764,00.html

Christian Science Monitor?

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0806/p15s01-wmgn.html

Pittsburgh Post Gazette?

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07112/779770-109.stm

The Guardian?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2005/nov/08/oil

Newsweek?

http://www.newsweek.com/id/141524

Hopefully you can see why I disagree....if the churchies, English fruitbats, American neo-cons and national and mid-western newspapers treat it like as normal a topic as everything else...well...none of this is "very silent" Anders.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
') And for example Barack Obama has never as far as I know publicly even mentioned anything near something like peak oil (except the climate change excuse, which is in reality a smokescreen for dealing with the peak oil problem I think [plus recently he used the oil slick problem to propose reducing oil consumption which is also a bit suspicious because he is still silent about the real reason]).


Maybe its so mainstream now that Obama doesn't have to talk about it? Certainly I have provided enough examples that we can be pretty sure all types of people who might read a local or national newspaper would have run into the topic...and then it happened more than a few years ago now......heck, maybe its just the new norm?

Ask the man on the street his opinion and he'd say, "Yeah sure, I read about that peak stuff, happened years ago, now get out of my way, I have a jet ski and RV to fill up for my camping trip at the lake this weekend". Until it interferes with THAT guys ability to do his thing, it just may not matter how long ago peak happened.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby Anders » Sun 23 May 2010, 14:44:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Are you sure?


Absolutely. Not a shadow of a doubt in my mind. For example, ask average Joe if he is aware of the oil leak problem in the Gulf of Mexico, and he will say: "Of course." Ask the same person: "Do you know what peak oil is?" and he will reply: "Peak, what?"
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 23 May 2010, 15:37:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Are you sure?


Absolutely. Not a shadow of a doubt in my mind. For example, ask average Joe if he is aware of the oil leak problem in the Gulf of Mexico, and he will say: "Of course." Ask the same person: "Do you know what peak oil is?" and he will reply: "Peak, what?"


Well, thats a disagreement about how well joe average reads the newspaper and pays attention to it rather than whether or not peak oil is being talked about in the MSM. I can find all sorts of examples of the MSM covering peak oil, but I certainly can't vouch for joe average's reading comprehension or basic understanding.

But does it matter? You could publish a MSM story everyday about the horrors of peak, climate change, nuke war, meteor strikes, gamma bursts or whatever, and its always just one more author whining hysterically about a future with a low probability of occurrence. Worse yet, when early adopters make predictions which expire a year or two down the road? And get called on it after the timeframe expires? (and this isn't just a peaker problem, religious predictions, financial predictions, climate predictions, they all have the same problem)

Its almost like inoculating someone against a virus, except in this case it inoculates them against the idea. At that point can you BLAME Joe Average for not caring in the least? "The world was supposed to end LAST year...gee...look how well THAT went." as Joe uses his credit card to buy chips and ice at the convenience store while his wife fuels the ATV and 3/4 ton dualie towing the 5th wheel.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby Anders » Sun 23 May 2010, 15:48:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
Well, thats a disagreement about how well joe average reads the newspaper and pays attention to it rather than whether or not peak oil is being talked about in the MSM. I can find all sorts of examples of the MSM covering peak oil, but I certainly can't vouch for joe average's reading comprehension or basic understanding.

But does it matter? You could publish a MSM story everyday about the horrors of peak, climate change, nuke war, meteor strikes, gamma bursts or whatever, and its always just one more author whining hysterically about a future with a low probability of occurrence.


One thing is sure. If the big media networks start trumpeting news stories about peak oil at the same rate they have covered the current oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, then the owner of this site will need to invest in more servers! :-D

At first Joe average will not be affected much, but business leaders and people in position of power will then suddenly wake up to the reality of the problem and start to take it seriously and start acting on the news stories.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 23 May 2010, 15:59:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
')One thing is sure. If the big media networks start trumpeting news stories about peak oil at the same rate they have covered the current oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, then the owner of this site will need to invest in more servers! :-D


I would disagree with that as well. Here's why...for every "the end is nigh!" scenario hitting the MSM, there would be another trumpeting the rise of technology, tar sands, GTL conversions, zero point energy, pro-nukes or space solar systems, and everything else. The MSM is as much about entertainment as anything else, they would just love highlighting that fight.

And we'd be right back in the same boat as before, except maybe a few more Joe Averages could tell us what peak oil is. And for everyone of them, there would be another who could recite chapter and verse on offshore drilling or oil shales or something else.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
')At first Joe average will not be affected much, but business leaders and people in position of power will then suddenly wake up to the reality of the problem and start to take it seriously and start acting on the news stories.


Listing the problem in the MSM, just like the examples I've provided, won't wake up anyone until the actual consequences arrive. Peak oil without shortages and rationing and sky high gasoline costs is just....irrelevant to Joe Average. You seem to add in some political component to the understanding of peak oil, the US has already been down that route with Jimmy Carter, we fired him in part because of his incessant harping. Americans don't like whiners even in the middle of an actual energy crisis, let alone a fake one which Joe Average can't even see at his local gas station yet.
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby Anders » Sun 23 May 2010, 16:11:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'L')isting the problem in the MSM, just like the examples I've provided, won't wake up anyone until the actual consequences arrive.


Well, do you have any IDEA what the traffic to this website will be if MSM starts pumping frontpage news stories about peak oil?

This will give you a clue: http://www.google.com/trends?q=oil+spil ... ytd&sort=0

8)
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby Anders » Sun 23 May 2010, 16:13:18

Here is another clue: http://www.google.com/trends?q=oil+spil ... ytd&sort=0
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Re: Mainstream Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 23 May 2010, 20:58:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'L')isting the problem in the MSM, just like the examples I've provided, won't wake up anyone until the actual consequences arrive.


Well, do you have any IDEA what the traffic to this website will be if MSM starts pumping frontpage news stories about peak oil?

This will give you a clue: http://www.google.com/trends?q=oil+spil ... ytd&sort=0

8)


Could be. Certainly some time back when Revi made the local news (or was it national?) and talked about this place, there was a big spike in traffic over a short period of time.

You want to know what would worry me though? Some time ago I was checking traffic at this web location and also over at dingbat central and what I noticed was that their traffic was increasing and this sites was decreasing. Now, what worries me is if that PO became a nightly topic on the evening news, people wouldn't necessarily wander in here and get a somewhat balanced view of things, but would wander into dingbat central and decide pretty quickly that peak oilers are crackpots and nutballs.

And there would go any hope of the knowledge of PO being of value to the general public.
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