[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'H')ere is what a well connected turnaround financier thinks of the World Economy

WILBUR LOOKS AT THE WORLD:
INTERVIEW WITH WILBUR L. ROSS, JR.,
Chairman and CEO, WL Ross & Co., LLC

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', ' Valuations have been going up partly due to the tremendous amount of capital available -- but probably even more so because of the relatively low interest rate environment and very permissive nature of debt markets. To provide a few anecdotal items, in the US, the average multiple of debt to EBITA in leveraged buyouts was about 5.7x in 2006. That is up from 4x in 2002 and just about back to the all time high reached before the credit bubble burst in the early 2000s. That is a danger sign. Also, interest coverage in leveraged transactions is now down to about 2 to 1. That also corresponds very closely to the worst in terms of ratings of high yield bonds. There have been tremendous quantities of these instruments in the last few years -- but about 1/3 of them have been rated single B or below. That is quite far into the junk category. And the uses of the proceeds are disquieting as well. Only about 13% has been used for capital expenditures to promote growth. Almost half has been for refinancing of existing debt or stock buybacks or dividends paid to sponsors. None of this is productive and most of the rest has gone for LBO transactions. So we believe both on a ratings and use of proceeds basis, the signs are there that perhaps by the end of 2007 or early 2008, there will be a big escalation of defaults from the currently low level.')

The article

[kathaksung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kathaksung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kathaksung', 'T')he Inside Group has prepared one trap for you.

461. Dollar, the Achilles' heel of the US (1/15/07)

What motivates Bush government so crazy to start a war on Iran? It is the dollar. Because the unrestrained spending, there is a great amount of dollar held by foreign countries, mainly by Japan, China and OPEC. These countries, mostly are "responsible" countries who know the disastrous result if they dump the dollar.
But there is another country: Iran. Iran exports oil. If it changes the oil trading currency from dollar to Euro, then it will hurt US economy significantly. And Iran decides to do so. That's why the Inside group is in panic. Though the flag to war with Iran is "nuclear proliferation", "support Iraq Shiite militias", the real reason is the dollar. But to start a war because others refusing to use your currency as trading method is not a justification, so Bush's war machine tries to find other excuse.

Re: Iran scraps Dollar, takes on Euro
Mon. 18 Dec 2006
Iran Focus

Tehran, Iran, Dec. 18 – Iran's central bank will begin to use the euro for foreign transactions, replacing the long-established dollar system, government spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham told reporters during his weekly press conference on Monday.

http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/a ... oryid=9533

Then on 12/30, there was an interesting news:

Quote, "U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY ARRESTED IN GERMANY
PAULSON AND CHENEY SUBPOENAED BY TRIBUNAL
Saturday 30 December 2006 20:05

U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY SEIZED AND BROUGHT BEFORE 'AD HOC' TRIBUNAL IN GERMANY ON A SUBPOENA HANDED OUT BY THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE [OR 'WORLD COURT'] ON CHARGES OF MONEY-LAUNDERING, NON-PAYMENT OF THE WANTA $4.5 TRILLION AND FOR MISAPPROPRIATION AND/OR DIVERSION OF COLOSSAL $ SUMS.

...........

EUROPEAN NATIONAL CURRENCY REVIVAL GATHERS SPEED

One crucial by-product of this crisis, too, is that, as was exclusively reported in our previous posting, both France and Germany have started distributing pre-stored national banknotes (denominated in French francs and deutschemarks) to their respective central banks and leading commercial banks.

http://www.worldreports.org/news/38_pau ... d_cheney_s

Though several days later, there was other news that Paulson would meet the Treasury Minister of Japan in January which indirectly denied the news of his arrest, I still believe this was, or once had been a part of the December plot.

Notice the time of Paulson's arrest: 12/30. The bombing in US was planned in the end of December. At same time Saddam was hanged - a planned justification for Iraq civil war.

Read the news of Paulson's arrest. You will find the real meaning of this incident - a planned collapse of Euro. According to the news, the collapse of the WANTA fund will lead to the collapse of Euro. The events astonished me was that French, German had prepared to replace the Euro with their original currency: Franc and Mark.
I think if the December plot had succeeded, the Great Mall would have been bombed.(and somewhere else in US and UK been bombed as well. ) There would have been a civil war in Iraq followed the execution of Saddam. And there would have been the collapse of Euro following the arrest of Paulson. Iran would have to stay on Dollar because the money they turned on then worth nothing.

I also think the US economy was on a volcano. There are two big bubbles: the housing market and stock market. The Inside group will find excuse to create the incident such like WANTA, Euro collapse, Iraq civil war or Iran war. To blame the economic crisis to other's fault not their's.

There will be big change ahead: war and economic crisis. The victim will always be the ordinary people. They will lose money and lives.

[threadbear]

Okay Kathkasung--What happens next? Gold--yes, no?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'O')kay Kathkasung--What happens next? Gold--yes, no?

[jupiters_release]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'O')kay Kathkasung--What happens next? Gold--yes, no?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'O')kay Kathkasung--What happens next? Gold--yes, no?

[halcyon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')he only thing I do not understand is why Russia, China Japan and others buy US dollar denominated assets when they could be pumping that money directly into the most dynamic Shia economy of the ME. Why buy gold when you can invest in Iran's glorious future?

[kathaksung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'O')kay Kathkasung--What happens next? Gold--yes, no?

[RdSnt]

This is becoming a really ugly Ponzi scheme. However, the only thing I can see causing it to collapse, within the next year or so, is an accident. Due to the exponentially increasing complexity of the scheme, the whole system is becoming incredibly frail. A simple mistake by a single person can, I believe, trigger the collapse of the whole thing.

However, I'm wondering if that is possible any more. The fiat currencies, and they are all that now, have disconnected completely from a backing by tangible assets. The inflation of money supplies is so huge that to contract back to a level where money is actually supported by something would put us into the dark ages. Meaning, are we at a point of no return?

If so, why would there be any reason not to continue as we are? In this case with the central banks simply agreeing to prop each other up. I can certainly see a reason for governments to come to some concensus on a fluid transfer of money through the system.

As to why the major players are sustaining the USD, simple self interest. I believe they are all quietly preparing to collapse the USD, but they are not ready yet.
Certainly I don't see China doing so before the '08 Olympics. Perhaps the US will force their hand.
If there is a move to collapse the USD, then I would fully expect that will be done through an agreement between China, Russia and the EU.

For those who think China would not do this, because they have 1 trillion USD, are fooling themselves. China thinks very long term and by 2010 they will have the internal economy to be able to walk away from that money.

Hmm, a bunch of rambling comments...
I guess this boils down to my concern about when the USD will collapse. While I am preparing for disaster, I would like to be able to see it coming a little more clearly, but that's going to be really hard.

[threadbear]

The "solution" to the sub prime fiasco, as suggested by the govt, is to have lenders crack down on borrowers, making it more difficult to refinance an adjustable rate mortgages, and liar loans. So, even if someone is making their payments just fine, when their rate readjusts, new standards would be brought in, where they would no longer qualify!

Oh dear...It almost looks like a conspiracy designed to take people's homes. But the banks sincerely don't want some tacky hovel in a marginal neighbourhood of Buttf***, Alabama. Tards lending to tards. Idiocracy is becoming a reality.

Oh, thanks Kath, Will try to bear in mind.

[JustWatch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbare', 'I')diocracy is becoming a reality.

[kathaksung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kathaksung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'O')kay Kathkasung--What happens next? Gold--yes, no?

[kathaksung]

439. The exchange rate of Chinese currency (9/30/06)

China has kept the exchange rate of its currency against dollar for more than ten years. The undervalue of Yuen lowers the cost of Chinese products. It created a huge trade deficit for US. That deficit surpassed $200 billions last year. Many economists said that made US losing millions of job opportunity. But to raise the Yuen's value will cause an inflation in US since now so many merchandise are imported from China. That would force the interest rate going upwards. Feds wouldn't allow such thing happening. So China could stick to its fixed exchange rate.

China did raise Yuen's value by 2.1% on 7/21/2005. It coincided to second London bombing. Obviously it was part of Feds' plan in their framing case. The framing case went soured, and further revaluation of Chinese currency postponed.

This March, the huge trade deficit against China caused an angry storm in Capital Hill. A bipartisan bill to slap a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese products would be proposed if China kept on manipulating the currency. But at the end of March, the plans for the bill dropped. Sen.Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham, the most relentless critics of China announced cease fire. They said they would revive the bill in September if the condition not improved.
The interest of US had to give way to the interest of Feds.

Today is the last day of September. Yuen climbs up 1% and something since then. Far from the 25% to 30% revaluation the senators want. Where is the tariff bill and the voice of lawmakers? None is heard. Because the home prices dropped in August - the first year-over-year decline since 1995. So go away tariff bill. Go away trade deficit. (Even if China likely will swell its trade surplus a 20% this year) Feds need help.

There is a historical current account deficit and trade deficit for US. Oil price has doubled this year. The inflation and high interest rate is unavoidable. Yet the interest rate of 10 year treasury note drops to 4.6%. Compare with the 5.25% of overnight federal fund rate, It's absolutely abnormal. Another strange thing is, I saw rare media reporting any explanation for this absurd phenomenon. Economists have no idea what it is. I here offer people a window how Feds manipulate all these. For their interest in real estate market, they abuse their power to make a mess in economy. As everything is tightened to the extreme point, US is facing a depression.

[deMolay]

The working class and middle class have lost or been swindled out of 11 Trillion in assets since 2007. Yet we are still being told that a recovery is underway and this is just a recession almost 3 years after the intial collapse. Who is fooling who? http://www.mybudget360.com/great-americ ... n-dollars/

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'T')he working class and middle class have lost or been swindled out of 11 Trillion in assets since 2007. Yet we are still being told that a recovery is underway and this is just a recession almost 3 years after the intial collapse. Who is fooling who? http://www.mybudget360.com/great-americ ... n-dollars/

[gollum]

Total mystery to me as to why so many working people blame the unemployed and the unions for this mess, while they let the banksters and wallstreet walk away scott free. I think that as a country we are screwed. Hell Americans can't even see the problem let alone fix it.

[Pops]

The middle is just in the wrong line of work:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rom 1973 to 1985, the financial sector never earned more than 16 percent of domestic corporate profits. In 1986, that figure reached 19 percent. In the 1990s, it oscillated between 21 percent and 30 percent, higher than it had ever been in the postwar period. This decade, it reached 41 percent.