by Xenophobe » Fri 13 Aug 2010, 21:53:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')This is the most fascinating, and perhaps most important, chart I have seen since I started posting here.
Could you please discuss in some detail why you think it is important?
Thanks.
Sure. It seems to me that the Peak argument relies on two basic components.
The first is that there is an important commodity, oil, and because its important, if you don't have enough, bad things happen. Relatively intuitive, easy to explain.
The second component is the bell shaped curve. You can point to any point after the peak with a horrified look on your face (or corresponding appropriate text) and allow the reader to make the implication...at some point in time, there will certainly be less than in the past.
For a stereotypical Doomer, if you can clear these basic points without inconvenient questions getting in the way, you are home free. Once the idea has taken hold that there
must be less of this important commodity, you now have free reign to dream up any scenario you wish starting with that basis. And its a good basis, you can design dieoffs, slowdowns, anarchy, political reorganization, wars,make up all the scenario's you wish which will result from this obvious situation of "don't have enough".
The chart provided by Carlhole takes a completely different tack. It does not focus on a particular item, like oil, or its relative value at any point in time, but on the adaptability of man, and the speed at which that adaptability has changed with respect to time.
Imagine if you will the invention of fire. Some human rubbed a couple of sticks together one day...and presto! How long did it take for that knowledge to circle the globe? 5 generations? 100 generations? The pace of progress was glacial. People in threads have made fun of the changes from their grandfathers time to now, yet lets look at one of the big ones. Telecommunications. If someone were invent fire today...or some pre-component of fire, how long would it take to propogate among everyone interested in the topic? A day? A week?
Look at Carlholes point about population. In a human population of 1,000,000 people, how many man years of thinking about an interesting problem would be available to, say, paleo-Indians? One person in each group of 100, thinking about a new idea for an hour or two a day? 625 man-years of thought. Obviously much of this thought is duplicative, much of it useless. But lets examine that same measure of collective brain power today. Lets say the population of only the developed world is our basis in this case, a population of some 3 billion people not limited to subsistence mode living? Being a more developed world, we also have more time to sit around and randomly think of stuff, look at the amount of time spent just participating in forums like this! So lets say each individual now has 2 hours per day to daydream, doodle, build an original idea, participate with others globally on general problem solving. Now we have 250,000,000 man-years of collective intelligence.
A multiplier of 400,000 times. Far beyond the effect of just the population increase along, because the standard of living built by prior thoughts allows more people to participate.
So...why is the chart important? Because it says that the rate of change of this type of collective intelligence applied to a problem might very well be the most powerful and fastest growing force on this planet. Its a much higher level argument than just "gee things will change because oil is important".
I like the chart. I like the singularity argument as well. A tough one to make because its at a different level than the main peak oil debate, but its a solid one.