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Main Doomer Fallacy

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby dsula » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 09:29:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Anyone who does not think science is evolving exponentially has their head between their legs.

Please show me how you get to your conclusion.


Save me the time and show me how you get to yours?

Simple observation, no science at all.
I look at my grandfather's life, at my fathers and at mine.

I can see a HUGE difference between my grandfather's life and my father's, I can hardly see a difference between my father's and mine. With accelerating sci'tech I'd expect the opposite.

e.g.
My gradfather travelled in an ox-cart, my father owned a car. I still own a car as opposed to a flying saucer.
My grandfather cooled beer with ice cut from some cave, my father had a refrigerator, I own a refrigerator (as opposed to a self-cooling beer).
My grandfather listened to radio, my father watched TV, I watch TV (as opposed to totally immersive vritual 3D world)
My grandfather wrote letters, my father used the phone, I use the phone.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Pops » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 11:47:00

I think that's a good measure dulsa.

Grandpappy - Pappy - Pops
Screened sleeping porch - A/C - A/C
Pneumonia - Antibiotics - MRSA/NDM 1
horse traction - tractor - Round-Up
coal oil light - coal fired light - coal fired light
Asteroids - Gemini - Space Shuttle
Machine Guns - The Bomb - IEDs & box cutters

Actually that last one isn't bad, give us some of yours OF this could be interesting.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Maddog78 » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 13:01:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')e.g.
My gradfather travelled in an ox-cart, my father owned a car. I still own a car as opposed to a flying saucer.
My grandfather cooled beer with ice cut from some cave, my father had a refrigerator, I own a refrigerator (as opposed to a self-cooling beer).
My grandfather listened to radio, my father watched TV, I watch TV (as opposed to totally immersive vritual 3D world)
My grandfather wrote letters, my father used the phone, I use the phone.


Ox Cart - 1957 Pontiac - Porsche 911 + H.D. VROD
Ice - Fridge - Fridge with automatic ice maker + Garage Fridge + Portable Fridge w/12V plug
Radio- TV - HDTV + internet via laptop + ipod
Letters - Phone - Cordless house phone + iphone cel.
:-D
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby dsula » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 13:25:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '
')Ox Cart - 1957 Pontiac - Porsche 911 + H.D. VROD
Ice - Fridge - Fridge with automatic ice maker + Garage Fridge + Portable Fridge w/12V plug
Radio- TV - HDTV + internet via laptop + ipod
Letters - Phone - Cordless house phone + iphone cel.
:-D

Of course, but it's all incremental improvments without much impact.
The speed limit in my county is 55 mph, porsche 911 don't do much good (except with the ladies of course).
And the same is true for all your other examples. The only one that actually CHANGED the life in recent history is the internet. Everything else is minor improvment.

Why did previous civilizations collapse? Why didn't they invent them selves out of their miseries? I will tell you why. Because they didn't have the resources to keep on inverting. And the same will happen with us. My local university cut back on research spending in their biology virus something/somthing lab. How will we keep it up, without the surplus productivity?

I'm playing computer games since the dawn of times. And as of yet I still have to encounter this new great game which makes significant improvment on the AI. Graphics are great, sound is great, AI is still on the level of the pacman ghosts. Where's this exponential progress?
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby frood » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 18:58:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frood', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frood', 'T')hats yet another pile of BS from a closed minded person...


Well, he WAS a former doomer and doomers tend to be very closed-minded.


Well, it IS a quote you used in your earlier post to back up your argument


...and I said "I wouldn't have written the essay exactly like that". But it was a former-doomer's perspective, so how could I not include it in answer to Xenophobe's question as to why doomer's are so childishly intolerant of dissent?


So you agree with the quote then and the stereotyping which basically means you have no compulsion to see why people will do things that make them a doomer in your eyes. Yes Im a doomer but I dont want civilisation to go down and I love science and tech and the urge to keep reaching for answers to life the universe and everything but Im looking out for myself now based on my assumptions, thats not groupthink not when it involves you getting off your ass and doing something that seems backward to your peers. This for me is the proper doomer philosophy, Im not going to place my faith with someone else to come up with the answers like we have some supposed merit to survive just because we are special, Ive already done so to keep myself safe and alive and if/when someone does save civilisation with science and tech I will be hoorahing alongside you. Until then look to yourself.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Carlhole » Fri 13 Aug 2010, 01:11:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frood', 'T')his for me is the proper doomer philosophy...


You're entitled think and state your opinion anytime you want without getting any flak for it. I wouldn't attack you for talking about whatever you wanted to, as long as it was mostly relevant. I wouldn't deem it polite for anyone to attack ME for laying down my thoughts on a discussion board. But that's what happens. So when you hold to your own ideas, you get attacked and have to defend them. it's interesting for some, and not for others, I guess.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Xenophobe » Fri 13 Aug 2010, 10:29:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')
Image


This is the most fascinating, and perhaps most important, chart I have seen since I started posting here.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ludi » Fri 13 Aug 2010, 11:06:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')This is the most fascinating, and perhaps most important, chart I have seen since I started posting here.


Could you please discuss in some detail why you think it is important?

Thanks.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby SeaGypsy » Fri 13 Aug 2010, 20:33:47

The panacea technology to replace the highly concentrated energy of fossil fuels is the key area of advancement yet to be achieved.
In virtually every other tech field exponential accelleration is obvious.
Yet having super fast mini computers or cures for diseases doesn't do away with the energy problem at all as yet. ICEs have become more efficient, but the are still ICEs and they still burn fossil fuels.
Whether or not supercomputing yields answers in the long run to the energy dilema remains to be seen.
To my mind the most frustrating thing about the energy equation is how slow the uptake of advanced technology is and has been, especially in transport/ efficiency. Another is how human foibles and stupidity are fed by the marketing machine and how politics refuse to get in the way of said idiocy.
The fact that vehicle manufacturers who could have been building far more efficient heavy and light vehicles for decades are now being bailed out by taxpayers is beyond a joke.
If we are fortunate enough to have time to change the course of history, the entire education system needs a complete overhaul, along with tax and business regulation.
Kids are being taught less now than 40 years ago about the things which really matter, classical education has failed to get basic logic and natural economics into the classroom. It's still all about 'memememe' and what can I have; perhaps more so than ever.
The arguments against technology and science seem to be based on a fundamental missunderstanding of the importance of fossil fuels in the development of the world. Fossil fuel technology represents the pinnacle quantum leap so far in history. Modern computing and medicine fall a poor second and 3rd place to oil/ coal/ gas tech in real influence.
It is illogical to lump all technology together in a conversation whilst overlooking this fundamental point of difference. Oil has in particular been a miracle fuel for over 100 years now. Replacing oil with diffuse energies such as solar and wind is a huge and perhaps impossible challenge. Yet the book is still being written.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Xenophobe » Fri 13 Aug 2010, 21:53:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')This is the most fascinating, and perhaps most important, chart I have seen since I started posting here.


Could you please discuss in some detail why you think it is important?

Thanks.


Sure. It seems to me that the Peak argument relies on two basic components.

The first is that there is an important commodity, oil, and because its important, if you don't have enough, bad things happen. Relatively intuitive, easy to explain.

The second component is the bell shaped curve. You can point to any point after the peak with a horrified look on your face (or corresponding appropriate text) and allow the reader to make the implication...at some point in time, there will certainly be less than in the past.

For a stereotypical Doomer, if you can clear these basic points without inconvenient questions getting in the way, you are home free. Once the idea has taken hold that there must be less of this important commodity, you now have free reign to dream up any scenario you wish starting with that basis. And its a good basis, you can design dieoffs, slowdowns, anarchy, political reorganization, wars,make up all the scenario's you wish which will result from this obvious situation of "don't have enough".

The chart provided by Carlhole takes a completely different tack. It does not focus on a particular item, like oil, or its relative value at any point in time, but on the adaptability of man, and the speed at which that adaptability has changed with respect to time.

Imagine if you will the invention of fire. Some human rubbed a couple of sticks together one day...and presto! How long did it take for that knowledge to circle the globe? 5 generations? 100 generations? The pace of progress was glacial. People in threads have made fun of the changes from their grandfathers time to now, yet lets look at one of the big ones. Telecommunications. If someone were invent fire today...or some pre-component of fire, how long would it take to propogate among everyone interested in the topic? A day? A week?

Look at Carlholes point about population. In a human population of 1,000,000 people, how many man years of thinking about an interesting problem would be available to, say, paleo-Indians? One person in each group of 100, thinking about a new idea for an hour or two a day? 625 man-years of thought. Obviously much of this thought is duplicative, much of it useless. But lets examine that same measure of collective brain power today. Lets say the population of only the developed world is our basis in this case, a population of some 3 billion people not limited to subsistence mode living? Being a more developed world, we also have more time to sit around and randomly think of stuff, look at the amount of time spent just participating in forums like this! So lets say each individual now has 2 hours per day to daydream, doodle, build an original idea, participate with others globally on general problem solving. Now we have 250,000,000 man-years of collective intelligence.

A multiplier of 400,000 times. Far beyond the effect of just the population increase along, because the standard of living built by prior thoughts allows more people to participate.

So...why is the chart important? Because it says that the rate of change of this type of collective intelligence applied to a problem might very well be the most powerful and fastest growing force on this planet. Its a much higher level argument than just "gee things will change because oil is important".

I like the chart. I like the singularity argument as well. A tough one to make because its at a different level than the main peak oil debate, but its a solid one.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Carlhole » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 00:44:51

Thank you, X. All correct and true and well said.

It's my little chess game too.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Carlhole » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 01:15:13

Look a this program schedule. Wish I could be there. I bet the chit-chat there is about the best you could ever find. Must be fun.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Carlhole » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 02:42:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'X')'s post: childish amateurish rambling.

X. What is your point, in one succinct literate paragraph? Can you do that for the doomers?


FU

(one succinct paragraph)
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby TonyPrep » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 07:20:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'N')ow we have 250,000,000 man-years of collective intelligence.
It's a fallacy to think that simply multiplying the number of brains thinking about a problem can solve that problem. No matter how many brains are combined, they can't change the laws of physics. It is purely wishful thinking.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ludi » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 07:49:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')I like the chart. I like the singularity argument as well. A tough one to make because its at a different level than the main peak oil debate, but its a solid one.


Thank you for your response. Can you discuss what about the singularity argument you find particularly compelling and solid?

Thanks again.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby dsula » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 09:06:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'N')ow we have 250,000,000 man-years of collective intelligence.
It's a fallacy to think that simply multiplying the number of brains thinking about a problem can solve that problem. No matter how many brains are combined, they can't change the laws of physics. It is purely wishful thinking.


Using their collective brain power ants should have reached the singlurarity by now for sure.
Why don't they?
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 14:55:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'X')'s post: childish amateurish rambling.

X. What is your point, in one succinct literate paragraph? Can you do that for the doomers?


Mankinds current socio/ecological/economic position on this planet is not based on the "lucky" discovery of oil. Oil is just but one of many commodities, concepts, and philosophies utilized to advance from a chimp ramming a stick into a bee hive for some honey to contemplating the origins of the universe and sending electronic emissaries out to learn more. The most powerful force ever seen for the advancement of mankind is the cumulative effect of the human learning process.

You did say 1 paragraph, right?
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ludi » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 15:10:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', ' ')Oil is just but one of many commodities, concepts, and philosophies utilized to advance from a chimp ramming a stick into a bee hive for some honey to contemplating the origins of the universe


You seem to be saying that the evolution of humans from chimp-like ancestors to Homo sapiens sapiens is due to "commodities, concepts, and philosophies."
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