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Main Doomer Fallacy

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 11 Aug 2010, 19:22:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'H')umans are like a bacteria that is evolving to destroy everything else around it like gangrene. Eventually the Earth will die, and if that ends up being the case that humans haven't learned to mentally evolve beyond their ultimately self-destructive tendencies, then I can only hope that the infection remains limited to the Earth.


Oh! See? There we go...!

This is what most doomers believe - Mankind and its Science is bad, very, very bad.

Humanity MUST die-off so Earth can get back to its hundreds of millions of years of gargantuan unawareness.

Personally, I'm inclined to agree with Earth. I think Earth's creation of humanity is the best evolutionary way forward. It's a passing, transitional phase in Earth's life.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 11 Aug 2010, 19:52:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') now bow down before you as Zardoz Incarnate. I apologize for doubting the prophets and acolytes


Rise and you are forgiven, my lowly subject. From now on, please refrain from polluting every single science thread that I post with your moronic and boring sarcasm. Thank you. You are dismissed.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 11 Aug 2010, 20:34:17

What makes you think that humans are not an evolutionary dead-end when there have been plenty of evolutionary dead-ends?

I would say humans can't help but screw up nearly every time they apply technology. And I think the spread of consumerism is just an aspect of self-destructive behavior that will make humans prove to be an evolutionary dead-end.

Humans are arrogant and think science trumps nature. The Titanic iceberg and the Icelandic volcano LAUGH at technology.

The development of human technology is similar to the development of bacteria plasmids that help them resist antibiotics and increase their virulence factors.

Maybe someday humans will indeed harness the power of antimatter or a singularity and then the inevitable accident will occur and the Earth will be blasted into a dust cloud. Humanity acts like children -- egocentric, foolish, needful, impulsive -- and technology is just like giving children matches and gasoline. Sooner or later the children will burn the house down.

There is one technology I would approve of though, a genetically-engineered virus that would re-engineer all the humans on Earth into chimps...
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 11 Aug 2010, 20:56:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'B')e careful rangerone314. The Singularity is a selfish Mistress and those who she suckles will rise with the froth of her power upon their lips.

Wanna milkshake Cornhole? :razz:


*yawn*
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Xenophobe » Wed 11 Aug 2010, 22:41:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frood', '
')Thats yet another pile of BS from a closed minded person trying to pigeonhole a mindset that doesnt follow along the lines of conformity.


Boy, that isn't how I interpreted it. Your implication appears to be that Doomer types AREN'T trapped by conformity, but the psychological aspect raised by Carlhole is interesting because it implies they certainly are. Forced almost by their very worldwide to discount/discard/devalue anything which doesn't shove the world off a cliff. Soon. Thats conformity alright, conformity with their own psychology.

An interesting explanation for their apparent non conformity in the real world (always believing something others don't see, can't prove, doesn't happen) with a perfectly conforming cause (their innate psychology).
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 00:07:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'W')hat makes you think that humans are not an evolutionary dead-end when there have been plenty of evolutionary dead-ends?

I would say humans can't help but screw up nearly every time they apply technology.


+1 ranger

The obvious logical argument this is happening, IMO, is that we humans make protecting the least productive of us (and helping them have viable offspring) a priority.

This is the exact OPPOSITE of Darwinian evolution, and IMO, why as a species, we are managing to go backwards despite the technology our best minds manage to produce.

Since it's now politically incorrect to point out obvious consequences like this, I imagine I'll now be attacked for stating the obvious.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 01:24:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frood', '
')Thats yet another pile of BS from a closed minded person trying to pigeonhole a mindset that doesnt follow along the lines of conformity.


Boy, that isn't how I interpreted it. Your implication appears to be that Doomer types AREN'T trapped by conformity, but the psychological aspect raised by Carlhole is interesting because it implies they certainly are. Forced almost by their very worldwide to discount/discard/devalue anything which doesn't shove the world off a cliff. Soon. Thats conformity alright, conformity with their own psychology.

An interesting explanation for their apparent non conformity in the real world (always believing something others don't see, can't prove, doesn't happen) with a perfectly conforming cause (their innate psychology).


If you like this site, x, and you want to be comfortable and accepted by everyone, then you'll probably have to espouse some doomerism yourself. Personally, I never have been able to stand groupthink, which is what this really is here at PeakOil.com. The doomers are totally intolerant of any outspoken person who disagrees with their group line.

And I admit, constitutionally, I don't care to follow any group. I like to think for myself. And when I am learning about a complex subject, I like the devil's advocate role because arguing a position uncovers weaknesses as well as strengths. It's amusing for me.

So, unless you're willing to be something of a pariah, you probably shouldn't follow my lead.

To tell you the truth, no one here really gives me much of a fight. The doomers mostly sound like a bunch of middle school kids throwing food and insults around in the cafeteria. Every once in a long while, someone argues a point which gives me pause. But that doesn't happen very often with this collection of twits.

I wish there were more people who argued cogently and forcefully in a more collegiate debating mode. That would be a whole lot more fun.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 02:11:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'C')ornhole, you are a deluded pompous pr3ck. I don't recollect ever seeing you argue peak-oil issues. You do not know d3ck about reserves, drilling technology, discovery curves, net-energy analysis, export-land model, petroleum politics, economics and commodities trades.

You post one techopian puff piece after another, and never apparently understand the science behind them. Your appeals to optimism and authority are a bore. Can I help you leave per chance?


I've been reading about peak oil since 1999 when Ken Deffeyes' "Hubbert's Peak" hit the shelves. I read all of Jay Hanson's old site, I've read all Richard Heinberg's books, was a subscriber to his newsletter, former subscriber to Mike Ruppert's FromTheWilderness and read one of Ruppert's books, one of James Howard Kunstler's, one by Peter Tertzakian, probably 3-4 books about Iraq and Afghanistan, articles too numerous to count, relationship to 911, etc.

I'm one of the oldest posters on PeakOil.com and read most of the news posted here and on EnergyBulletin on a daily basis. I read quite a few of member posts here, even if I don't always contribute to more than a few threads at any given time.

All of those aspects of oil depletion you mentioned, I've seen here before - long, long ago. But my postion has ALWAYS been that peak oil is a crisis, that the human animal responds to crises primarily through Science & Technology, and that watching the accelerating trend of sci/tech is fascinating. It's kind of a race. And the founder of PeakOil.com (Aaron) appears to have pretty much the same opinion, even though he isn't outspoken about it as I am.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'P')lotting a trend of advancing science toward the so-called Singularity is no more or less error-prone than plotting a petroleum depletion trend. Both use plenty of data from which to make inferences and draw conclusions - at root are human populations and human sci/tech, so the two trends draw from the same well of possibility, as it were.

When I first posted about the Singularity, Aaron posted this:

Book & Media Review -- The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('by Aaron » Sun Nov 27, 2005 12:44 am', 'T')he Doomer community around here will gasp in disbelief that I actually consider this topic among the vanguard of possibilities that could save our bacon.

Two reasons:

1. Fantastic leaps in understanding become attainable if Artificial Intelligence is possible.

2. AI is certainly possible... I'm doing it right now, and so are you.

The hitch is if we can hold onto and advance our collective technology long enough to make it happen.


The race is on! And let me tell you, it's a whole lot more interesting to contrast peak oil/overpopulation with the accelerating trend of science/technology. One trend points in the negative direction, the other points in the positive.


I don't give a rat's ass how frustrating this must be for YOU, a dim bulb who wants everyone here to chant a doom mantra in unison. Fark that!
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby dsula » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 06:45:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 't')hat watching the accelerating trend of sci/tech is fascinating.

How do you get to the conclusion that science is accelerating?
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 07:40:57

I like you Carl,
you have the courage to go against the status quo in a variety of areas; perhaps most importantly 9/11 on this forum. You were the one who 'brought me to the light' in this regard.
I do not find your optimism to be unrealistic.
Fact is on the Kubler-Ross scale you are at acceptance. (so I believe)
I am confident you have been through the previous stages and reached your own conclusions.
Plain old doomerism is boring as hell.
I believe we are in some very deep shiite.
But whining about it changes nothing.
Science is the only likely or possible cure for some of our many malaise.
There is nothing wrong with focus on science as a chosen perspective in these 'latter days'.
In the next 100 years humanity will either slide back into survivalist desperation, or evolve as it is capable of doing, into a truly miraculous animal.
Your choice to focus on the second option is logical. Those who don't like it should get busy equipping the doomstead instead of harping on or attacking those espousing an alternative to cave man reversion.

Perhaps the most important techno fix has been around for decades (or in some cultures, much longer); contraception. The enemies of science in this regard could be called the enemies of humanity as a whole, although they like to call their opponents this. Looking at the inflence of old school religionists, the opposers of science, these are the real problem with creating a sustainable future. The world is still full of ignorant breeders who believe the american dream will be attained by all, sooner or later. That is one of the two biggest problems. The other is the failure of classical education to reach these same people.

In short, if people can slow down their breeding and speed up their ability to reason; humanity and the rest of life has a chance on this planet. This is pure science. Not being aware of these factors is ignorance, anti science, faith based idiocy.

The fact you get so much crap thrown at you for your focus on rational science in this forum sucks.

Those who really want to retain a pure doomerism should let Carl and Graeme et al get on with what they want to say and start more threads (or resurrect forgotten ones) on survivalist matters. Show a little maturity.

Anyone who does not think science is evolving exponentially has their head between their legs.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 08:02:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I') like you Carl,
you have the courage to go against the status quo in a variety of areas; perhaps most importantly 9/11 on this forum. You were the one who 'brought me to the light' in this regard.
I do not find your optimism to be unrealistic.


Thanks, SeaGypsy. I really don't think I hurt anyone by posting science articles and making comments.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby dsula » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 08:11:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Anyone who does not think science is evolving exponentially has their head between their legs.

Please show me how you get to your conclusion.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 08:13:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Anyone who does not think science is evolving exponentially has their head between their legs.

Please show me how you get to your conclusion.


Save me the time and show me how you get to yours?
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 08:19:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 't')hat watching the accelerating trend of sci/tech is fascinating.

How do you get to the conclusion that science is accelerating?


There have been about 15 different studies where historians have looked at key scientific achievements and charted them along a timeline. They all essentially discovered exponential growth in the rate of progress. Ray Kurzweil compiled all these studies together on one logarithmic chart:

Image

Wise Geek has a good description too:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lthough the choice of milestones is semi-arbitrary, historians have compared different sets of "major milestones" as defined by dozens of respected publications, and found that the acceleration effect is present in every list.

One obvious reason for the acceleration of technological progress is that there are simply more people nowadays. For most of humanity's history, there were fewer than three million people on Earth. By the invention of agriculture in 8500 BC, there were about five million people. By the birth of Christ, there were 200 million. In 1800 the world population was approximately one billion, and as of 2008 is 6.6 billion. 10% of everyone who has ever lived is alive today, and we are more educated, interconnected, efficient, and automation-assisted than ever.

More people means more farmers, more factory workers, more businessmen, more scientists, inventors, and geniuses of every stripe. The more people there are and the better technology they have, the more likely they are to invent new technologies and distribute them. It is a fundamental fact of economics that new inventions are incredibly beneficial. Once invented and distributed, they can permanently increase output per capita for billions of people. So there is a powerful economic incentive, in capitalist societies, to invent new technologies.

Technologies build on themselves in a recursive fashion: better tools can be used to construct ever-better tools at an accelerating rate. Futurists argue that advanced technologies likely to be developed in the 21st century, such as molecular nanotechnology and artificial intelligence, will fuel the continuation of the technological acceleration effect, producing an era of very rapid progress.


Also, look back at the rate of progress during WWII - in the United States, in Germany, in Japan too. During this major crisis, technological advance was extremely rapid as large economies devoted their energies to the war effort. The US led the world into the nuclear age due to the war crisis. It stands to reason that during our present energy crisis, that a similar effect will occur (and is occurring).

The main doomer fallacy is the assumption that human beings will NOT respond to this energy crisis with science & technology; that people will dumbly continue trying to live the way they once did during the energy bounty-years, failing to adapt or innovate. But that is not the way people behave. People, when confronted with serious problems, ALWAYS seek out scientific and technical solutions. And they usually succeed.

Doomers also assume that sci/tech will prove useless, although there is little reason to believe that. We most definitely have NOT reached the End Of All Possible Knowledge. Right now, there are some gargantuan science experiments - like CERN, NIF, Iter and others - that are all trying to figure out the incredible mystery that is our Universe or develop applied science from what we already know about it.
Last edited by Carlhole on Thu 12 Aug 2010, 08:35:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Quinny » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 08:27:46

I personally believe the population issue is key to the solution, and that a levelling out of standards of living is probably the key to this happening. There is however massive inertia built into population growth and severe action may be necessary for us to sustain our position on this planet.

Small scale nuclear power of whatever type could IMO be a game changer, but I am not optimistic about the chances of it's likelihood.

I therefore remain a doomer and continue to plan for a bleak future, but Carhole's posts are still welcomed for a glimmer of hope.

I did post previously on this thread about peak science which I was sure was previously discussed here. No-one responded, but I'd quite like to revisit the data if anyone can point me in the right direction.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby dsula » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 09:06:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')
One obvious reason for the acceleration of technological progress is that there are simply more people nowadays.

Most of those surplus people don't even know how to read. And most of those that do only know how to read the koran.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')Technologies build on themselves in a recursive fashion: better tools can be used to construct ever-better tools at an accelerating rate.

That is true. However it takes more and more effort, maintenance and energy to maintain the lower level infrastructure. It takes a HUGE amount of infrastructure of university, apparatus, high tech, labs etc. Just to churn out another paper with some minor advancement.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')
The main doomer fallacy is the assumption that human beings will NOT respond to this energy crisis with science & technology; that people will dumbly continue trying to live the way they once did during the energy bounty-years, failing to adapt or innovate. But that is not the way people behave. People, when confronted with serious problems, ALWAYS seek out scientific and technical solutions. And they usually succeed.

I wouldn't call it main fallacy, but there's definitly a tendency. However it is very doubtfull that humankind can keep up innovation at a rate to combat depletion and other issues. Just look a t where most of the innovation today is comming from. Stable societies with a large populace of EDUCATED people with enough funding for expensive equipment. I'm not sure if that can be kept up. Just to make it clear. It's very well possible you're right, but you could also be wrong. It's a guess.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')Doomers also assume that sci/tech will prove useless, although there is little reason to believe that. We most definitely have NOT reached the End Of All Possible Knowledge. Right now, there are some gargantuan science experiments - like CERN, NIF, Iter and others - that are all trying to figure out the incredible mystery that is our Universe or develop applied science from what we already know about it.


Yes, but all of them cost an enormous amount of money and use an enourmous high tech ifrstructure to be built and maintained.
As far as I can see any advancement in sci/tech will only lead to more consumption of resources and eventually more destruction of earth.
The roman empire was also technologicaly advanced. But still they went bust.
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