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THE Sec/o Treasury Tim Geithner Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Geithner to discuss economy, investment in India

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 00:00:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will discuss economic stability, financial investment and building up infrastructure with Indian officials when he visits India next week, a U.S. official says.

Geithner will meet with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and take part in the first meeting of a new U.S.-Indian economic panel in the capital New Delhi and also will visit Mumbai, the financial center, a senior Treasury Department official said Wednesday.

The vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, Donald Kohn, also will be on the trip. The April 6-7 visit is part of a U.S. effort to deepen the relationship with India, the world's largest democracy and most stable U.S. ally in a hostile corner of the globe.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5748950.cms


Interesting.. so with 20% real unemployment in the US, and still more job losses in March, Geithner and the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve are going to India to discuss infrastructure investment.

If this were Fantasyland, it would be nice to think that these discussions will be about getting India to buy more American-made products. But that's pretty unlikely, we all know what "building up infrastructure in India" means -- more Indians doing jobs that Americans used to do.

I'm not naive enough to think we shouldn't have economic talks with India, but this just sounds like more offshoring business as usual. :( Or maybe I'm overreacting, I'd be happy to be proven wrong -- does anyone on this forum still think that US investment in India will result in more US jobs?
Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed 03 Aug 2011, 16:54:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Geithner to discuss economy, investment in India

Unread postby Loki » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 01:42:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'd')oes anyone on this forum still think that US investment in India will result in more US jobs?

[smilie=laughing4.gif]

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Re: Geithner to discuss economy, investment in India

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 02:30:39

In 1999, US exports to India were 3.68 billion and imports from India were 9.07 billion. The trade deficit with India was 5.38 billion.

By 2005, US exports to India had increased to 7.91 billion while imports had increased to 18.8 billion. The trade deficit was 10.89 billion.

In 2009, US exports to India had increased to 16.46 billion while imports had increased to 21.18 billion. The trade deficit was 4.71 billion.

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5330.html(Source)

Since 1999, US exports to India have surged by a compound annual growth rate of 16%! This includes the impact of the last recession. The trade deficit between the two countries shrank.

I'd call that a success, wouldn't you?

The biggest exports to India were fertilizers, chemicals, minerals, transportation equipment and aircraft.
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Re: Geithner to discuss economy, investment in India

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 03:48:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '[')b]I'd call that a success, wouldn't you?

The biggest exports to India were fertilizers, chemicals, minerals, transportation equipment and aircraft.


Well, I don't know. Does the mining of raw materials really employ that many people, or is it largely a business of heavy machinery and automation? As for fertilizers, I don't see many ads for phosphate shovelers. Transportation and aircraft is a brighter spot, but I think the days are numbered there too (isn't Boeing's Dreamliner manufactured piecemeal all over the world?).

So the numbers you gave are pretty good, for corporate profits that is -- I'm talking about jobs.

And, the Indian situation has a lot more to do with white collar work than the import and export of raw materials and manufactured goods. I did some googling on this, it's funny but it seems like this issue just got dropped around 2002, some bits of info from 2004 not much since then. From what I've read, apparently it's impossible to know how many white collar jobs have been lost to India since companies aren't required to track and report those numbers.

The best estimate I could find was a 2002 study that estimated 15 million American jobs outsourced to India by 2015. I suspect the actual number has turned out to be worse than that. But even 15 million jobs lost, that's just to India alone -- now add in all the manufacturing jobs lost to China, Mexico, and even Costa Rica (Intel processors account for 20% of their exports):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he central government offers tax exemptions for those who are willing to invest in the country. Several global high tech corporations have already started developing in the area exporting goods including chip manufacturer Intel, pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline, and consumer products company Procter & Gamble. In 2006 Intel's microprocessor facility alone was responsible for 20% of Costa Rican exports and 4.9% of the country's GDP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costa_rica


Getting back to India, this is from 2007:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut here's the key point: whether a company chooses to outsource to a domestic service provider or a foreign vendor, the fact is a good chunk of the work will likely end up offshore regardless. That's because U.S.-based outsourcers like IBM, EDS and CSC, along with "Bermuda-based" Accenture, are ramping up staff in India and sending as much work there as they can, as fast as they can.

Outsourcing doesn't yet automatically equate to offshoring, but we're fast approaching that point.

So with more CIOs looking to outsource, and virtually all outsourcers looking to India as their primary base of operations, we could be approaching a tipping point where the trend will begin to affect the domestic labor market in a meaningful way.
http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2007/01/why_more_us_tec.html;jsessionid=PIY3K34GANJIPQE1GHPSKHWATMY32JVN


The author sure got that prediction right, I'd call 20% real unemployment pretty meaningful (yes, a lot of it is from the housing crash but offshoring so many jobs is why we were overly dependent on housing in the first place).
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Re: Geithner to discuss economy, investment in India

Unread postby Loki » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 15:16:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')Since 1999, US exports to India have surged by a compound annual growth rate of 16%! This includes the impact of the last recession. The trade deficit between the two countries shrank.

I'd call that a success, wouldn't you?

The biggest exports to India were fertilizers, chemicals, minerals, transportation equipment and aircraft.


You have to look at the whole series, not just a few datapoints. I made a quick-and-dirty graph of the US trade imbalance with India since 1999. The blue is the linear trend line, the purple is second order polynomial. What I see is a worsening trade imbalance with India since 1999, with a slight uptick the last couple years, not long enough to consider it a trend. Any sort of "free trade" agreement with India will almost certainly worsen the trade balance and send even more US jobs overseas.
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Re: Geithner to discuss economy, investment in India

Unread postby americandream » Fri 02 Apr 2010, 05:00:32

The Chinese shafted the Soviets up the behind. You reckon they gonna do any better for the US? Now, whilst I am no lover of capitalism, I happen to have a special place reserved for the loathing and distrust those renegades in Beijing arouse in me. I don't think the Indians come anywhere near those Maoists when it comes to high wire deceit.
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Geithner says economy growing faster than expected

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 19 Apr 2010, 00:01:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON (AP) - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (GYT'-nur) says the economy is growing faster than the Obama administration expected.

He tells NBC's "Meet the Press" that the country is on the way to sustained job creation. But he acknowledges that unemployment may remain high, close to 10 percent.

Geithner says there's more confidence in the business world, and he says the private sector is growing. He also says people are spending more.

He said he sees encouraging signs that should make Americans confident the country will emerge stronger.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100418/D9F5FCBO1.html


Ok, I just don't get this. How can both these statements be true, that a) the economy is "unexpectedly" getting better and b) unemployment is "unexpectedly" getting worse. The latest unemployment numbers were "unexpectedly worse," which they blamed not only on Easter yet again but also Cesar Chavez day of all things. Every time bad numbers come out, they either blame it on snow or a holiday.

State and local tax revenues are still in freefall, no sign of recovery. I keep reading about the tidal wave of foreclosures about to hit the market. Reading forums, I see folks actually talking about being grateful for landing a part time minimum wage job.

The only reason we've got technically positive economic activity is because the government has poured ungodly sums of cash into the system, a practice that cannot continue forever. You can't run an economy on government checks alone, or at least logic would suggest not. So what happens when the federal moneypump is turned off? It's not like all the stimulus money was used to build real infrastructure or anything else that can be built on (most of the money was just bailout to state budgets, but that's all temporary).

What am I missing here? Can we really just accept 20% unemployment / underemployment and call that a recovery?
Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed 03 Aug 2011, 16:52:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Geithner says economy growing faster than expected

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 19 Apr 2010, 02:09:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')
What am I missing here? Can we really just accept 20% unemployment / underemployment and call that a recovery?


Sure. Why not?

The mainstream media is in the tank for Obama and the MSM can convince most Americans of almost anything.

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Re: Geithner says economy growing faster than expected

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 19 Apr 2010, 02:29:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')What am I missing here?


This.
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Re: Geithner says economy growing faster than expected

Unread postby Fishman » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 12:21:22

You're not missing anything, You take a few positive points of data, spin it to make your disaster look better. Look at more data like you have and you see the disaster still ongoing.
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Re: Geithner says economy growing faster than expected

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 12:49:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON (AP) - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (GYT'-nur) says the economy is growing faster than the Obama administration expected.

What am I missing here? Can we really just accept 20% unemployment / underemployment and call that a recovery?

You are missing that in the first world, jobs are tending to GO AWAY due to global labor price arbitrage. This is nothing new - it has been going on for several decades.

However, IMO, it is accelerating. Computer tech advances just make it more prevelant and more obvious. With a bad economy recently, and people upset about jobs, it is much more noticable.

Should we just accept this? I'll opine on that in my next post on this thread.
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Re: Geithner says economy growing faster than expected

Unread postby gnm » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 12:59:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'W')hat am I missing here? Can we really just accept 20% unemployment / underemployment and call that a recovery?


Not missing anything as long as you remind yourself that anything that comes out of Turbo Timmy Taxcheats mouth is a complete lie.

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Re: Geithner says economy growing faster than expected

Unread postby gnm » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 13:00:04

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Re: Geithner says economy growing faster than expected

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 13:00:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', ' ')Can we really just accept 20% unemployment / underemployment

Unless there are huge shifts toward simpler, cheaper, more sustainable living, then in America, I suspect we have to accept this. We can try to mitigate it by increasing wealth transfers, as we are doing now by (apparently) turning unemployment into welfare and NOT PAYING FOR IT, but I digress.

One obvious solution would be job sharing. For tech jobs, which may pay well but have long hours and lots of stress, for example, this would seem ideal.

However, this implies living on half a "good to great" salary (and lower taxes would help) in exchange for lots more free time, less stress, and possibly better health as a consequence. Try getting most Americans to accept THAT. In fact, try getting most American employers to accept that.

I'm not saying umemployment won't decrease at all in a vigorous recovery, but the long term trend won't be good until something reasonably close to global labor parity (adjusted for tech. and productivity and various costs of course) is reached.

Oh, and unless we reach EDUCATIONAL parity instead of just throwing more money at teachers unions and ineffective testing, the quality of the jobs won't be anything to shout about overall either.
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Re: Geithner says economy growing faster than expected

Unread postby dsula » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 14:47:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')However, this implies living on half a "good to great" salary (and lower taxes would help) in exchange for lots more free time, less stress, and possibly better health as a consequence. Try getting most Americans to accept THAT. In fact, try getting most American employers to accept that.

Engineers/scientist make a good salary because they are scarce. Do you know how hard it is to find a good engineer? Now try to find twice that many with your job sharing idea. Also an engineer/scientist task can not easily be shared or efficiency drops quickly.
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Re: Geithner says economy growing faster than expected

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 20 Apr 2010, 18:46:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Engineers/scientist make a good salary because they are scarce. Do you know how hard it is to find a good engineer? Now try to find twice that many with your job sharing idea. Also an engineer/scientist task can not easily be shared or efficiency drops quickly.



I'm not convinced that people working as a team couldn't share a rarified job. I do something very rare for a living which pays well when I do it. But I don't work very much because jobs are few and are greatly competed for. So in a sense I am sharing jobs with all others in my very small field. I've reduced my need to earn, so I don't have the stress of competing for all these jobs in order to get a "decent income."
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Geithner vows to protect Indian jobs

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 25 Apr 2010, 07:48:45

This article isn't breaking news (4/7), but illuminating nonetheless.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The US government has vowed not to harm India’s IT outsourcing sector as it battles to create jobs at home in the worst labour market since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, said during a two-day visit to India that protectionist measures to prevent jobs from migrating outside the country would do more harm to the US than good.

“We are not going to go down that path,” promised Mr Geithner. “We know that it would make us weaker, not stronger.”
He also said that the administration of Barack Obama, president, would not seek to curb the investments of US companies overseas as “our fortunes are tied with the world”. There have been proposals to trim the tax privileges of US companies that operate internationally.

“American companies are long in the world,” Mr Geithner told Indian business leaders at a discussion hosted by the Confederation of Indian Industry.

“They are good at what much of the world needs. A huge part of the basic economic challenge we face is to give stronger in- centive for private investment, help support innovation and try to make sure there is more investment and stronger exports globally.”

Mr Geithner said Mr Obama was “deeply committed” to trying to build a consensus among Americans for more open trade to support the recovery.

“We have got the worst labour market since the Great Depression,” the Treasury secretary said. “Most Americans are still going through an incredibly difficult economic series of challenges and yet we’ve been very successful in working to keep our markets open under all that pressure.”

IT outsourcing, which is heavily dependent on business from the US, is one of India’s flagship economic sectors. Companies such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and Genpact helped propel the economy to growth rates of 9 per cent before the global financial crisis and was responsible for creating 45 per cent of new jobs over the past 10 years.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/370f8d52-421b-11df-9ac4-00144feabdc0.html


Well, I learned something here: It's hopeless. Let's summarize. Geithner has assured the Indians that it doesn't matter how many Americans are bounced out of work, he's going to protect offshoring and outsourcing to India.

He brags that even with so many Americans out of work, we've been even "more successful" at shipping jobs to India.

He promises that the Obama administration will continue convincing us that shipping jobs to India is good for us.

And lastly, he assures the nervous Indians that “American companies are long in the world." MMkay.. which Americans are "long in the world," would that be those on Wall Street, or the 22% unemployed?

And so, this is going to be my last thread on globalism (I promise to try anyway). It's just hopeless to even bring this up anymore.. there is no turning this ship around, the jobs have gone, and our secretary of the treasury (speaking in India, no less) has made it perfectly clear it's the position of the United States government that this bloodletting of American jobs shall continue.
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Re: Geithner vows to protect Indian jobs

Unread postby jdmartin » Mon 03 May 2010, 13:59:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')And so, this is going to be my last thread on globalism (I promise to try anyway). It's just hopeless to even bring this up anymore.. there is no turning this ship around, the jobs have gone, and our secretary of the treasury (speaking in India, no less) has made it perfectly clear it's the position of the United States government that this bloodletting of American jobs shall continue.


Yup. And it's almost as hopeless talking to feckless Americans who'd rather save fifty cents than their neighbor's job.
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Geithner: Unemployment Could Go Up Before It Comes Down

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 03 Aug 2010, 13:54:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')reasury Secretary Timothy Geithner acknowledged that it is still a "tough economy" for most Americans, and warned it's possible the unemployment rate will go up for a couple of months before it comes down as more people enter the labor force.

"When they see a little hope that there may be jobs out there, they start to come back in again. And that can cause the measured unemployment rate to go up — temporarily," Geithner told "Good Morning America's" George Stephanopoulos in an exclusive interview.
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/treasury-secretary-timothy-geithner-unemployment/story?id=11308157


Mmkay, so now a worsening unemployment number will actually be a sign of jobs growth since all the currently uncounted unemployed will come out of the woodwork looking for a job. That's pretty brilliant spin right there, "unemployment is getting worse because more people are looking for a job."

So what's the conclusion then, that the best way to fight unemployment is don't get any hopes up so nobody tries to get a job?
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Re: Geithner: Unemployment Could Go Up Before It Comes Down

Unread postby efarmer » Tue 03 Aug 2010, 14:13:25

Could, may, might, possibly, on the other hand, in some cases, based on past experience, often times.

Before anything tangible happens news people have to ask questions to fill time and talking heads have to give them answers.

The people who were caught flat footed by the meltdown are fortune telling for other people who sell periodical trivia when they can't find any news.

Our financial system shot off into the weeds, we bet the farm on putting it back on the trail as close to where it was when it was under control the last known time and then waiting to see what happens.
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