[americandream]

You will note that the site characterises the hydro-carbon issue as "undoubtedly the most serious economic and cultural crossroads in several generations". That qualifier places the peak oil objective of this site in the realms of due diligence. In other words, we are being informed of a matter that requires our discussion, debate and monitoring, the assumption being that in the process of debating, we may arrive at a fuller knowledge of a matter central to our culture. And what is our culture? A capitalist one borne of exponential growth and obsolescent consumerism. In other words, a tendency to live beyond our means.

Within that framework, any reasonable inquiror would seek to establish thresholds. Some may experience impatience and wander off, others may have a fuller picture of the issues and monitor events. Yet others still may flail in the dark inspite of glaring evidence that the oil blood of capitalism is at "a cultural crossroads". But the site remains true to its intention and for that, it is a valuable resource.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tami', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')
At then end of the day, this site's objective is to warn us of the risks in living beyond our means. Whether those risks materialise tomorrow or in a few decades (as I generally believe), it still plays, in my opinion, a valuable role.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlinkBlink', 'I')t's not the 'Peak' that hurts it's the down slope that will cause the pain. As Loki said, "And thus we stand at the precipice"

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlinkBlink', '
')It's not the 'Peak' that hurts it's the down slope that will cause the pain. As Loki said, "And thus we stand at the precipice"

[eastbay]

Hey, americandream ... hows the weather in your part of the world? I was just north and west of you last week and the rain was record-setting huge! Like an inch per 10 minutes huge!

[americandream]

This site is serving a rather valuable purpose actually and I see no one with a reasonable handle on their faculties waiting for anything. A few admittedly are expecting drama and fireworks but the rest of us view life reasonably and with some consideration and understand cause and effect.

Eastbay

Were you on this side of the equator or in New Zealand? Weathers been unusually dry and warm with the odd cold spell and (infrequent) downpour. My gf's father who is a farmer commented on it being like nothing he has ever seen but then, I guess he's being dramatic and all is well.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlinkBlink', 'I')t's not the 'Peak' that hurts it's the down slope that will cause the pain. As Loki said, "And thus we stand at the precipice"

[Pops]

I agree, JD, no Mad Max in sight. But we aren't going to get into the whole Peak has come and gone and I feel fine quasi-debate are we?

Take a look at Staniford's Early Warning blog, he does a good chart of current production from several sources, last I looked, it was almost back to the high (Peak, if you prefer) of '08.

So why would you expect Max when supply driven production decline isn't apparent? Really, this is the definition of the plateau: increasing demand = higher price = decreased demand = lower price
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('In August of '05 MD', 'I')f the current energy prices, along with other factors, drive the world economy into recession, then you could expect oil prices to fall significantly as soon as a capacity cushion emerges.
rinse and repeat.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')Eastbay

Were you on this side of the equator or in New Zealand? Weathers been unusually dry and warm with the odd cold spell and (infrequent) downpour. My gf's father who is a farmer commented on it being like nothing he has ever seen but then, I guess he's being dramatic and all is well.

[americandream]

Singapore. Now thats one place I would like to visit. We had a wild spell of wet weather about a month back but apart from that, its been rather dry and mild.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')Eastbay

Were you on this side of the equator or in New Zealand? Weathers been unusually dry and warm with the odd cold spell and (infrequent) downpour. My gf's father who is a farmer commented on it being like nothing he has ever seen but then, I guess he's being dramatic and all is well.

[IslandCrow]

One of the questions that came up much earlier in discussing the 'Peak', was if it was going to be a sharp peak, or a bumpy plateau. Also there was discussion of the changing rates of decline with reference to Dr. Bakhtiari's 4 Phases of Transition:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') The four Transition periods (T1, T2, T3, and T4) will roughly span the 2006-2020 era. Each Transition [will] cover, on average, three to four years.

The major palpable difference between the four Ts is their respective gradient of oil output decline -- very small for T1, perceptible for T2, remarkable in T3, and rather steep for T4. In fact, this gradation in decline is a genuine blessing for those having to cope and adapt.

[americandream]

The USSR was different being communal to start with and its collapse being a function of the Cold War and the contrived battle of human ideas, with the free market winning. In contrast, our predicament will be imposed by the natural order. In other words, we will be passive recepients of a natural externality with no room for negotiation.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')n other words, we will be passive recepients of a natural externality with no room for negotiation.

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')n other words, we will be passive recepients of a natural externality with no room for negotiation.

[americandream]

A functionally leaking resource cyclicality like capitalism and the existence of myriad adaptive solutions....hmmm. Interesting concept. Did you have resource alchemy in mind perhaps?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')n other words, we will be passive recepients of a natural externality with no room for negotiation.

[oowolf]

I'm recanting the errors of my formerly foolish paranoia. I'm going out and buy a brand-new HUMMER, right now!

[americandream]

Do that as it appears that one of our myriad adaptive solutions will include making the wherewithal of obsolescent consumerism out of fresh air and all will finally be well in consumertopia as peak resourcing finally gets put to rest!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oowolf', 'I')'m recanting the errors of my formerly foolish paranoia. I'm going out and buy a brand-new HUMMER, right now!

[rangerone314]

The Roman Empire in its last century or so had a whole bunch of crisises, any of which could have spelled total collapse had it turned out differently. Actually more resembled a plane engine sputtering before dying.

Its stupid to try and predict the exact time the Titanic will sank after hitting the iceberg... it IS going to sink, the only question is can you get to the lifeboats before you go down with the ship.

[americandream]

I think its less one of predicting so much as balancing the books in much the same way a bank manager would when looking at a client with limited resources and no tooth fairy, who is increasingly sinking deeper into debt and then sitting down with him or her to explain the facts.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'T')he Roman Empire in its last century or so had a whole bunch of crisises, any of which could have spelled total collapse had it turned out differently. Actually more resembled a plane engine sputtering before dying.

Its stupid to try and predict the exact time the Titanic will sank after hitting the iceberg... it IS going to sink, the only question is can you get to the lifeboats before you go down with the ship.