[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('captain_planet', 'T')he United States is the most inefficient user of electricity in the world. The United States provides 13.04 MWh per person, European Union provides 6.40 MWh per person, Japan provides 7.97 MWh per person. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html Nuclear power already provides 20% of our electricity which will doubled if we are able to conserve like the europeans and japanese.

[captain_planet]

I posted that because you have to factor that part in the equation, this has to deal with the growth of renewable because the current electricity being produced now by renewables have now been doubled. Others cannot use what conservere because all our eletricity is being created in the United States, if we use less then less electric plants is needed. Coal is not imported in the United States, which provides more then 50% of our electricity. That is why most American's mainly republicans did not want to sign the Kyoto treaty we are the OPEC of coal reserves.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')aste is an intregal part of any economy. You cut it, you cut jobs.

[Graeme]

Here's an article from NYT describing investment and time frames:

An Unlikely Spark in Alternative Energy

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')espite the spring sell-off, there were some reassuring developments for investors in alternative energy, and they came from what might seem unlikely sources. In May, Chevron announced that it was creating a business unit to research and invest in ethanol and biodiesel fuels.

"We like to form business units around key strategic objectives," said Donald L. Paul, vice president and chief technology officer at Chevron. "We're going to spend a significant amount of money in this area to get going."

In June, BP said it would spend $500 million to create a research center for biofuels. It also said it was forming a biofuels partnership with DuPont that would produce a sugar-based fuel for the British market in 2007. In November 2005, BP announced that it would invest $8 billion over the next decade in wind and solar power and in other technologies that produce electric power with lowered carbon emissions.

Investors in alternative technology stocks, Mr. Guinness asserted, must look beyond current market gyrations. "You need to take a medium-term view — at least two to four years," he said. Nobody, after all, can displace petroleum overnight.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Huh? You are the one using the numbers and saying 60% growth rate is a bad investment, not me.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('captain_planet', 'I') posted that because you have to factor that part in the equation, this has to deal with the growth of renewable because the current electricity being produced now by renewables have now been doubled.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Huh? You are the one using the numbers and saying 60% growth rate is a bad investment, not me.

[grabby]

Human beings have a hard time goggling scales and powers of multiplication.

did you know if bill gates gave everyone in the world 10 dollars he would be broke?

And the ten dollars is nothing big to anyone.

Politician weasels have stumbled into this finding, if millions of people give1000 dollars a year, that is a lot of money.

If everyone in the US sent me one penny I would have 3 million dollars.

You wouldn't miss it and everyone could find enough pennies in their couch.

Hey, lets pass a law that every year everyone needs to send me a penny.

well it works in reverse.
if everyone wants 30 gallons

that is a lot of gallons.

that is equal to the entire family smashing and fermenting and boiling 200 gallons of apple mash and it would take a week.


This is the only way it can work is to:

SEE IF WE CAN USE ONLY THE FUEL WE PRODUCE OURSELVES.

that would mean we could make and use about 100 gallons a year. (Your apple tree comes on once a year).

if you have a life style that can handle that, if you do, you should do fine after peak.
_________________

[azreal60]

I have to disagree with people saying this was during a period with no interest in renewable energy. There may have been no interest in mainstream america, but in renewable energy circles in america, and mainstream just about everywhere else, energy has been a focus for a long time. They actually care about the environment in quite a few other places, and have been working to preserve it. That's why a while back I stated Europe would be a better place than the US post peak, civilization wise. Their civilization depends so much less on oil, and has learned to get by with less of it. A further adjustment that way would be alot less painful to them than it would be to us.

Ok, to answer Monte's question, honestly, I can't answer it without knowing the future. A prediction at this point depends on too many variables. I think it Could happen. I think it's unlikely to happen. I don't think it's unlikely because there hasn't been a large amount of growth. I think it's unlikely because that growth hasn't gotten big enough for resource limits to be imposed on the manufacturers. They will get hit with fossil fuel downslides just like everyone else. What if that solar panel company had all it's materials ready to make thousands of panels, but becuase of the shipping cost could not ship them? That's the kind of things businesses are going to face soon. Heck they are facing them already.

So I don't really think I have enough data to quantify that. We all really don't. What we have are potential senarios that we could face. That's what makes planning so hard, if you plan for one and you face another, you could fail at the survival game. And it really stops being a game when your a parent and your thinking about how your daughter is going to live thru this.

[grabby]

Well, here is how much renewables your going to have to manufacture:

CLIK HERE TO SEE HOW MUCH ETHANOL YOU HAVE TO MAKE EVERY DAY

You have to run this waterfall one hour a day with ethanol

each gallon is 2 dollars. Thatsa lotta ethanol. Summer, winter day or night you have to run this waterfall we use or we die.

can't be done.

and if you only make ten percent of that, we crash into the rocks.

alternates wont help or change anything we are headed for the cliff.

We are in a barrel

will everyone make it or just a few?

I believe the nations will surely knock each others teeth out when production falls. (There is NO possibility of a limited N conflict, absolutely none.)

IT is easy to say "LETS GROW 20 MILLION ACRES OF PALM OIL!"
But it is impossible to do it. easy to say impossible to do.

Look at the waterfall, this is how much finished product you HAVE to produce EVERY DAY it cannot be done. If the oil flow stoped a few days there would be huge trouble.

CLIK HERE TO SEE HOW MUCH ETHANOL YOU HAVE TO MAKE EVERY DAY


Now comes the difficult part.

Alcohol mash is 5% about, so you have to boil it to distill it.


This fact is what will prevent our use of ethanol ever as an real alternate.

The energy to distill the ethanol we need to replace oil with ethanol
The electrical or nuclear or coal produced energy will require the equivalent energy as heating horseshoe falls from room temerature to BOILING as it runs over the falls 24 hours a day continuously.. day and night 365 days a year.

or more than 20 million barrels of oil a day just to heat it to boiling.

that is how much energy would have to be put INTO the mash to distill it.


that is how much ENERGY is required to heat the ethanol to distill it. If we use the ethanol itself then we would use it all up.

therefore ethanol will never replace oil as a substitute

Imagine cold water running up to the falls, and then large FLAMES of natural gas heating it to boiling as it steams over the falls
CLIK HERE TO SEE HOW MUCH ETHANOL YOU HAVE TO MAKE EVERY DAY

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('captain_planet', ' ')Coal is not imported in the United States, which provides more then 50% of our electricity.

[MonteQuest]

60% of US oil demand is supplied by imports, a figure forecast to increase to 70% by 2025, when imports will nearly equal the total consumption today of 21 million barrels. US oil demand was recently reported by the EIA to grow by 2% over the same period reaching 30.5 mbpd. A 45% increase.

It will take a huge amount of US political willpower to mandate the kinds of actions and renewable energy development necessary to even reduce the level of oil imports over the next 19 years, much less slow the rate of growth. And all the while, we are supposed to be ramping up alternatives to not only meet that demand, but to replace the decline of existing oil production and allow for economic growth?

I think sometimes that people forget that energy demand is growing exponentially and that the renewable energy base is miniscule, thus renewables ability to fill the gap is dreaming. To support my contentions:

Will the Share of Renewables Continue to Grow in Tomorrow’s Energy Supply?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')rivers will remain to be the resource base, technology options and costs. In niche markets and where resources are abundant, renewables are competitive, however, significant cost reductions are needed to bring renewables broadly into the cost range of conventional technologies.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oesn't look to me like there is any "Manhattan Project" even being considered for renewables, much less implemented.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')Doesn't look to me like there is any "Manhattan Project" even being considered for renewables, much less implemented.

Meanwhile, oil is $76 + and rising and oil production seems at a plateau or in decline.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')Doesn't look to me like there is any "Manhattan Project" even being considered for renewables, much less implemented.

Meanwhile, oil is $76 + and rising and oil production seems at a plateau or in decline.

[MonteQuest]

They say follow the money....





$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ydrocarbons (crude oil and natural gas and their derivatives) are expected to remain the mainstay of the U.S. energy sector for the foreseeable future. “Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) account for 88 percent of the growth [out to 2030],” states the EIA, “with coal use increasing by 53 percent, petroleum by 34 percent, and natural gas by 20 percent over that period.”8 The market share of oil, gas, and coal is expected to be approximately 86 percent in 2030, the same share as today (Figure 1). Globally, the story is much the same, with fossil fuels accounting for 83% of the increase in projected demand out to 2030.

Hence, hydrocarbons are projected to remain the dominant energy source on a worldwide basis, as well.

[Graeme]

This is how the World Business Council on Sustainable Development predicts our future:

climatechangeaction

[miniTAX]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')eanwhile, oil is $76 + and rising and oil production seems at a plateau or in decline.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miniTAX', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')eanwhile, oil is $76 + and rising and oil production seems at a plateau or in decline.

[miniTAX]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'P')roduction is still at a plateau.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miniTAX', 'A') production plateau? What are your numbers ?
When price's down, a peak becomes a plateau. When it's up, it's peak oil. When it's down, it's volatility.
Peakoilers are best at the game "head I win, tail you lose".