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Peak Oil: Too good to be true

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Peak Oil: Too good to be true

Postby JohnDenver » Tue 17 May 2005, 04:30:14

IMO, this is the best argument against peak oil causing the collapse of modern civilization: it's too good to be true. The idea that we could get out from under the rat race which governs our lives is appealing -- so appealing in fact, that we should be very suspicious of it.

The post-peak utopia is not going to arrive for the simple reason that it is a utopia.
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Postby Carlhole » Tue 17 May 2005, 04:44:22

One sunny Tuesday, two proto-mice were watching an iron asteroid, that looked bigger than the moon, as it crashed into the distance. "Well, said one, that's sure to kill off all the big predators. Maybe, there will be a golden age for us finally".
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Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Tue 17 May 2005, 05:00:46

I don't know John, food riots and lots of people dying doesn't really sound like Utopia to me.

Well maybe if you managed to snatch the last pack of pot noodles from Safeway.
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Postby linlithgowoil » Tue 17 May 2005, 05:02:36

i see what you are saying. Peak Oil is appealing to many people who look around them at western civilsation and think 'This is the best we can come up with?'. I know I feel that way. I thikn to myself that the average person actually wholeheartedly throws themself into working 40+ hours per week for around 40-50 years, just so that when they retire (possibly at 65, maybe later), they have 5 or 10 years in which they can sit back in self-satisfaction because they've paid off their house. After which, they keel over and die.

Therefore, they've given up most of their waking lives to work - to achieve what exactly? Dont get me wrong, i know we all have to do some kind of productive work just in order to have food and shelter, but does it really have to be this way?

My utopia would be a 3 day working week. You'd start work around 10am and finish at 3pm. There would be little excess money and capital floating around, so there would not be constant technological progress as there wouldn't be enough excess capital to invest in it. Therefore, society would be simpler, less busy, less tech orientated and perhaps more natural and satisfying.

Unfortunately, this kind of society will never exist, for the simple fact that people are very greedy and require to have more things than other people to make themselves feel powerful. Its tragic really.

Peak Oil might very well be the 'come-uppance' that greedy people need. The realisation that tomorrow you'll be poorer than today isnt a nice one - and is unthinkable to most people in the West.
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Postby jimmydean » Tue 17 May 2005, 06:11:59

The "Simple Living" movement Simple Living is an existing lifestyle alternative to the typical consumer hungry approach that most of us lead in the west. I saw a show on it and it was remarkable how some people re-engineered their lives to essentially work less, consume less and have more free time to spend doing the things they actually like.

I'm sure a lot of us will be following the simple living mantra's once PO hits.

As essentially a computer geek though I don't have the skills to be "in demand" in a post PO world. Perhaps just after post PO I'll be able to telecommute from home though as oil becomes rationed/too expensive forcing companies to allow more people to work from home ;)
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Postby Doly » Tue 17 May 2005, 08:41:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jimmydean', 'T')he "Simple Living" movement Simple Living is an existing lifestyle alternative to the typical consumer hungry approach that most of us lead in the west. I saw a show on it and it was remarkable how some people re-engineered their lives to essentially work less, consume less and have more free time to spend doing the things they actually like.


I've heard about it before. If it wasn't already invented, I would have. "Keep it simple" is my motto. But, like Einstein said: "Make things as simple as possible, but not any simpler."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jimmydean', '
')As essentially a computer geek though I don't have the skills to be "in demand" in a post PO world.


I don't necessarily agree. Comms and IT will become more important in a world where physical objects are expensive to move.
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Postby aldente » Tue 17 May 2005, 09:57:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', '
') There would be little excess money and capital floating around
You hit on one of the root causes of our current situation here. The excess of capital caused a hell of a mess...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', '
')Peak Oil might very well be the 'come-uppance' that greedy people need. The realisation that tomorrow you'll be poorer than today isnt a nice one - and is unthinkable to most people in the West.

I agree, PO seems to be a self induced reset function.
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Re: Peak Oil: Too good to be true

Postby lee » Tue 17 May 2005, 12:01:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')MO, this is the best argument against peak oil causing the collapse of modern civilization: it's too good to be true.


You hit the nail on the head. But it does give hope that if we try
to make things better, it just may happen. As it stands now, people
are too busy pigging out to pay any attention.

I wouldn't hope for utopia, but I think to hope for something better
is reasonable.
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Re: Peak Oil: Too good to be true

Postby FatherOfTwo » Tue 17 May 2005, 13:03:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')MO, this is the best argument against peak oil causing the collapse of modern civilization: it's too good to be true. The idea that we could get out from under the rat race which governs our lives is appealing -- so appealing in fact, that we should be very suspicious of it.

The post-peak utopia is not going to arrive for the simple reason that it is a utopia.


This is one of the most irresponsible and ludicrous posts I've seen you make, and that is really saying something.

Yes there are enormous problems with modern society. But NO ONE should be gleefully looking forward to the kind of mass upheaval that our little planet may be about to undergo. Post-peak utopia? Have you upgraded from soft drugs to hard core drugs JD? There is not likely to be anything utopia-like about the downward slide of the curve.

Shame on you for wishing such pain and suffering so that you can "get out of the rat race."

F'ing ludicrous...
:-x
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Postby nero » Tue 17 May 2005, 13:51:23

FatherOf Two, I rather think John is attacking others on this forum who are hoping PO will solve the problems they see with society and lead the way to a sustainable utopia. I sometimes in my more optimistic moments feel that way and then have to do a reality check, to get back to the gloom of a soft landing and the continued ravishment of our environment.

That being said I rather take issue with this being "the best argument against peak oil causing the collapse of modern civilization". It's hardly an argument at all.
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Postby FatherOfTwo » Tue 17 May 2005, 14:03:48

Nero, I certainly hope you're right.
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Re: Peak Oil: Too good to be true

Postby bobcousins » Tue 17 May 2005, 19:48:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', 'Y')es there are enormous problems with modern society. But NO ONE should be gleefully looking forward to the kind of mass upheaval that our little planet may be about to undergo. [...]
Shame on you for wishing such pain and suffering so that you can "get out of the rat race."


If wishing would make it true, I would be willing to take responsibilty for it. I rather think people brought it on themselves, I don't feel obliged to be sympathetic.

If the pain and suffering are going to happen anyway, why not hope for some good to come out of it?
It's all downhill from here
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Re: Peak Oil: Too good to be true

Postby 0mar » Tue 17 May 2005, 19:55:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', 'Y')es there are enormous problems with modern society. But NO ONE should be gleefully looking forward to the kind of mass upheaval that our little planet may be about to undergo. Post-peak utopia? Have you upgraded from soft drugs to hard core drugs JD? There is not likely to be anything utopia-like about the downward slide of the curve.

:-x


What goes around comes around. For the past several hundred years, we have been handing out peak oil style punishments to the rest of the world. We finally get to experience a bit of the same medicine.

I look forward to the riots, gives my AK47 a real chance to work out instead of punching holes in paper.
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Postby arocoun » Tue 17 May 2005, 23:53:14

If you're tired of the rat race, just drop out of it.

And as for the careless sheeple that are slowly and carelessly ruining the earth, and enforcing their hierarchial empire on the whole known world, I have no sympathy for them. They destroy life and resources without a second thought; and when they cause their own misery and death, I'll return their lack of care.
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Postby arocoun » Tue 17 May 2005, 23:58:56

And people aren't necessarily greedy. Indeed, most humans were living in peaceful, communal societies before the imperialist minority took over. Humans are greedy only if raised in a society as messed up as ours.
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Postby TrueKaiser » Wed 18 May 2005, 00:21:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', 'I') don't know John, food riots and lots of people dying doesn't really sound like Utopia to me.

Well maybe if you managed to snatch the last pack of pot noodles from Safeway.


well your in the minority, some of the op's and alot of the other forum regulars want that to happen. maybe they think their firearms and the stockpiles of food they have will put them in a position of power over the people around them. of course they want this sense they are most likely on the bottom of the ladder so to speak in todays way of life.

the thread starter is on the right track that the doomer's idea of collapse comes from their dissatisfaction with the current society. as for why they are like this, i have solid answer but i think it might be because they are both on the bottom of the society's ladder and that they are emotionally disturbed.
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Postby JohnDenver » Wed 18 May 2005, 08:12:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'F')atherOf Two, I rather think John is attacking others on this forum who are hoping PO will solve the problems they see with society and lead the way to a sustainable utopia. I sometimes in my more optimistic moments feel that way and then have to do a reality check, to get back to the gloom of a soft landing and the continued ravishment of our environment.


Thanks Nero. That's exactly what I was trying to say.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat being said I rather take issue with this being "the best argument against peak oil causing the collapse of modern civilization". It's hardly an argument at all.


That's why I think it's the best. It's like cutting the Gordian Knot. It's an argument without arguing, and it's effective.

It's like a child with a lottery ticket, telling his mother. "I know it's gonna be the winner, Mom! I Just know it!!"

There's no argument to prove to the kid that he's wrong. He's just having a hyper, emotional response, and you have to help him calm down. You can't reason with him about it, because he'll just keep confabulating.

Here's a case study, killJOY from the Galloway thread:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't hate America, but I do hate the government. I can't wait for it to collapse.


My counter-argument to this is that the government is not going to collapse, because it's too good to be true. Think about it carefully and see if you don't agree. It's a very strong, mature argument -- a sort of wisdom, something an old man would say to you.

The message is: You're over-excited, son. It's better to calm down. The world doesn't work neatly like that. It's messy, and sloppy, and full of friction and tenacity and delay.
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Re: Peak Oil: Too good to be true

Postby JohnDenver » Wed 18 May 2005, 08:36:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'W')hat goes around comes around. For the past several hundred years, we have been handing out peak oil style punishments to the rest of the world. We finally get to experience a bit of the same medicine.


PAY BACK TIME. I don't buy it. It sounds like something from the movies, or the Bible. Justice isn't a part of the way nature works. It just operates blindly, and totally injust acts are perpetrated at a certain statistical rate every day.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') look forward to the riots, gives my AK47 a real chance to work out instead of punching holes in paper.


It ain't gonna happen, Omar. It's too good to be true. You're confusing your fantasy with reality. When you are shooting at paper, do you sometimes fantasize that you are shooting real people? Maybe authority figures? Or just people you hate in the neighborhood?
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Postby entropyfails » Wed 18 May 2005, 08:54:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat being said I rather take issue with this being "the best argument against peak oil causing the collapse of modern civilization". It's hardly an argument at all.


That's why I think it's the best. It's like cutting the Gordian Knot. It's an argument without arguing, and it's effective.


Effective at quelling dissent perhaps. It doesn’t seem like a logical line of argument to me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')t's like a child with a lottery ticket, telling his mother. "I know it's gonna be the winner, Mom! I Just know it!!"

There's no argument to prove to the kid that he's wrong. He's just having a hyper, emotional response, and you have to help him calm down. You can't reason with him about it, because he'll just keep confabulating.


Not a parent I take it.

You can sit the kid down, put 100 red marbles and 1 blue marble in a bag and have them keep picking and replacing until they get the blue marble. Then they can have some understanding of the situation they find themselves in with the lottery ticket and rationalize about the realistic consequences.

Apparently you find your arguments more convincing than most people here do so you set yourself up as the "wise parent." I however, feel that you come here to preach civilization and I will continue to call you on this patronizing bullshit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')Here's a case study, killJOY from the Galloway thread:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't hate America, but I do hate the government. I can't wait for it to collapse.

My counter-argument to this is that the government is not going to collapse, because it's too good to be true. Think about it carefully and see if you don't agree. It's a very strong, mature argument -- a sort of wisdom, something an old man would say to you.
Singing sweet lies about the strength of your argument while wrapping yourself in around a wisdom trait that you have shown no inkling of possessing doesn’t make your argument strong. In fact, except for a few people here that already agree with you, most don’t buy it.

Who knows about governmental collapse? Advocating either side seems ridiculous to me since that area of speculation has never had any accuracy.

So you don’t have a strong, mature argument. You just pretend you do. Fine by me. But I will call you on it each and every time.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')The message is: You're over-excited, son. It's better to calm down. The world doesn't work neatly like that. It's messy, and sloppy, and full of friction and tenacity and delay.

Doubtful. Your message always reads as “Go to sleep, ignorant masses. Someone else will take care of your problems.”

And “Don’t question our way of life, we have done it for a long time and we must continue to do it for as long as we can.”
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Postby Doly » Wed 18 May 2005, 10:35:36

John, if you mean that most people's ideas about the results of peak oil are too simple to be correct, you're probably right.

If you're just trolling, like always, happy trolling.
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