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Peak Oil: Too good to be true

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Peak Oil: Too good to be true

Unread postby 0mar » Wed 18 May 2005, 14:05:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'W')hat goes around comes around. For the past several hundred years, we have been handing out peak oil style punishments to the rest of the world. We finally get to experience a bit of the same medicine.


PAY BACK TIME. I don't buy it. It sounds like something from the movies, or the Bible. Justice isn't a part of the way nature works. It just operates blindly, and totally injust acts are perpetrated at a certain statistical rate every day.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') look forward to the riots, gives my AK47 a real chance to work out instead of punching holes in paper.


It ain't gonna happen, Omar. It's too good to be true. You're confusing your fantasy with reality. When you are shooting at paper, do you sometimes fantasize that you are shooting real people? Maybe authority figures? Or just people you hate in the neighborhood?


That argument makes ZERO logical sense.

It's too good to be true that the US won WWII, yet it happened. It's too good to be true that we lived in the largest economic boom in history, yet it happened. It's too good to be true that I got a 30K fellowship from the DOE but it happened. It's too good to be true that the twin towers fell (for those jihadists), but it happened.

The payback that's going to happen to the Western world is a result of nature acting out. It's just that we get to taste it for the first time ever.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 18 May 2005, 21:44:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('entropyfails', '
')You can sit the kid down, put 100 red marbles and 1 blue marble in a bag and have them keep picking and replacing until they get the blue marble. Then they can have some understanding of the situation they find themselves in with the lottery ticket and rationalize about the realistic consequences.


Good analogy. I'd like to do that with the posters in here.

See this blue marble? That's the outcome where U.S. gets paid back in spades for all its sins, and the government collapses, and Walmart dies, and suburbia ends, and we go back to the barter system, and fat people get back into shape, and the Indians get their land back, and Omar is out happily shooting people with his AK-47 at the riots, and the SUV-driving peak oil deniers are all getting their just desserts, drinking dog piss out of hubcabs, and mother nature fights back, and all the animals are safe again.

The other 100 red marbles, are the outcomes where none of this fantasy, utopian bullshit happens.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')pparently you find your arguments more convincing than most people here


Most people here are totally deluded -- blinded by their juvenile utopian fantasies. If we expand our scope a little, you'll find that most people outside of this forum find my "too good to be true" argument to be totally convincing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ere do so you set yourself up as the "wise parent." I however, feel that you come here to preach civilization


Yah, silly me. Civilization has been a constant, unchanging feature of human life for 10,000 years, and I'm the nut because I don't believe it's going to vanish in the next year or two.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'W')ho knows about governmental collapse? Advocating either side seems ridiculous to me since that area of speculation has never had any accuracy.


After 200+ years of government in the U.S., and 2000+ years of government in Asia and the Old World, your view is that the odds of governmental collapse are 50:50. Personally, I would put the odds at 1:1000000. You're like a Marxist claiming the state could potentially "wither away", and that is utter bullshit. The state never has withered away, and it never will. killJOY, who "can't wait for it to collapse" is going to be waiting til his hair turns gray and his teeth fall out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('entropyfails', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')The message is: You're over-excited, son. It's better to calm down. The world doesn't work neatly like that. It's messy, and sloppy, and full of friction and tenacity and delay.


Doubtful. Your message always reads as “Go to sleep, ignorant masses. Someone else will take care of your problems.”

And “Don’t question our way of life, we have done it for a long time and we must continue to do it for as long as we can.”

No, my message in this thread is simply this: civilization and government are not going to collapse. In fact, as I stated at the beginning, it's very seductive to believe that government might collapse. I've often had that very fantasy myself. I've sometimes looked at the huge pile of paper and files I have to maintain as a modern person, and thought: Wouldn't it be liberating to just huck the whole thing in the trash? Wouldn't it be great to live a life without paper, without a social security number, without drug testing etc. etc.? It's a great fantasy. I just don't believe it will happen. It's too far out of the norms of what's been going on for the last 10,000 years. We're not going to suddenly "rehumanize". If anything, the trend toward dehumanization is going to intensify.
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Re: Peak Oil: Too good to be true

Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 18 May 2005, 21:49:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'T')he payback that's going to happen to the Western world is a result of nature acting out.


What do you mean, Omar? Do you think that nature is keeping score somewhere? And why only the Western world? The Chinese are fucking up nature. Africans poachers are killing mother nature's precious elephants and gorillas. Brazilian peasants are shaving her virgin rain forests, and shitting all over the ground. Won't nature "act out" on them too?
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Unread postby lee » Wed 18 May 2005, 21:59:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')No, my message in this thread is simply this: civilization and government are not going to collapse


JohnDenver makes perfect sense. Let's face it, the civilisation
we have build under oil has been dehumanising.

Clint Eastwood says, "A man's got to know his limitations."

Maybe, mankind has to know it's limitations as well. Right
now we have exceeded those limitations, and maybe peak oil
will make people aware that there are limitations, before we
turn our planet into a moonscape.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 18 May 2005, 22:02:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I')f you're just trolling, like always, happy trolling.


I don't know why folks here always think I'm trolling. I'm expressing my sincere views. What do you think Doly? Posters like killJOY "can't wait for the government to collapse". Do you think that's a good emotional state to put yourself in? What would you estimate the odds of governmental collapse to be? Is it trolling to suggest that those odds are vanishingly small?
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Wed 18 May 2005, 22:12:31

I don't agree with your outlook, JD, but I have to admit you are a colorful and interesting writer. 'Drinking piss from hubcaps.' 'Shaving Mother Nature's virgin rain forests.' That's rich stuff! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Unread postby entropyfails » Thu 19 May 2005, 09:51:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')Good analogy. I'd like to do that with the posters in here.

See this blue marble? That's the outcome where U.S. gets paid back in spades for all its sins, and the government collapses, and Walmart dies, and suburbia ends, and we go back to the barter system, and fat people get back into shape, and the Indians get their land back, and Omar is out happily shooting people with his AK-47 at the riots, and the SUV-driving peak oil deniers are all getting their just desserts, drinking dog piss out of hubcabs, and mother nature fights back, and all the animals are safe again.

The other 100 red marbles, are the outcomes where none of this fantasy, utopian bullshit happens.


You often do this here. You take all the arguments that people make and roll them up into one big argument that ends up being pretty easy to debunk because no one has made the argument in the first place.

If you want to drill down into how many color marbles people want to put in the bag and how many of each, please do so. Ask them what percentage chance they think they will get their “desired” outcome. If they say 100%, I’ll agree with you. They have “true belief” and you cannot change their minds.

However returning to sustainability doesn’t require utopianism, just a change of human vision. These things happen all the time on a individual level. My “marble count” ends up being about half a percent for this outcome, probably less. However, I feel that the other 99 and one half marbles end in humans eating their environment and killing off their own support system. So what good do they do us?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'M')ost people here are totally deluded -- blinded by their juvenile utopian fantasies. If we expand our scope a little, you'll find that most people outside of this forum find my "too good to be true" argument to be totally convincing.


Some here do take it to extremes. Some engage in utopianism. However that doesn’t completely preclude their theories as totally invalid, though some fall in that category as well. Most people have strong beliefs that things must continue on their current path. They have 100 piece logic as too. So the appeal to the popularity doesn’t work either.

Several claims have some validity to them and some evidence. Several do not. But lumping them all together because they don’t fit your idea of how humanity should continue so you can easily “debunk” them seems agenda motivated to me


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')Yah, silly me. Civilization has been a constant, unchanging feature of human life for 10,000 years, and I'm the nut because I don't believe it's going to vanish in the next year or two.


I don't think it will “wash away” that quickly either. And by “wash away” you again lump lots of different outcomes into one idea so that you can continue to push what we have been doing as the only viable option because the “lumped beast” makes no sense.

Some here do fail to understand human will. We agree on this. You however feel that we shouldn’t even attempt the improbable, half marble option of sustainability even though your probable, 99 and one half civilization option will wipe out life on this planet. And you use lots of dirty tricks to try to “make your point.”

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')After 200+ years of government in the U.S., and 2000+ years of government in Asia and the Old World, your view is that the odds of governmental collapse are 50:50. Personally, I would put the odds at 1:1000000. You're like a Marxist claiming the state could potentially "wither away", and that is utter bullshit. The state never has withered away, and it never will. killJOY, who "can't wait for it to collapse" is going to be waiting til his hair turns gray and his teeth fall out.


I never said 50/50. Perhaps others. Nice Commie implication there too. If people’s visions changed, the state could “wither away” back into tribal affiliations. Just because it hasn’t for 10,000 years doesn’t mean that it never will. It only requires a change in belief. You have set your OWN marbles at 100% and you have just PROVED it right here.

Maybe your own “civilization marches on to the heat death of the universe” falls under your “too good to be true” category.

If KillJoy wishes to “wait” for the “collapse” he will find himself waiting for a long time, our environment still has a bit of spunk. However if he chooses to go out and help convince others that we need to follow a sustainable future, then perhaps it won’t matter how long he has to “wait” and he’d be helping to alleviate the “collapse” problem as well. If not, well then I’d probably agree with your characterization of him. Let's let him chime in on this.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('entropyfails', '
')Doubtful. Your message always reads as “Go to sleep, ignorant masses. Someone else will take care of your problems.”

And “Don’t question our way of life, we have done it for a long time and we must continue to do it for as long as we can.”

No, my message in this thread is simply this: civilization and government are not going to collapse. In fact, as I stated at the beginning, it's very
seductive to believe that government might collapse. I've often had that very fantasy myself. I've sometimes looked at the huge pile of paper and files I have to maintain as a modern person, and thought: Wouldn't it be liberating to just huck the whole thing in the trash? Wouldn't it be great to live a life without paper, without a social security number, without drug testing etc. etc.? It's a great fantasy. I just don't believe it will happen. It's too far out of the norms of what's been going on for the last 10,000 years. We're not going to suddenly "rehumanize". If anything, the trend toward dehumanization is going to intensify.
You refuse to set any possibility to a sustainable outcome. You have locked yourself in a belief structure. Will changing people's minds mean that tomorrow civilization would vanish? Probably not! But there comes a point where these changes in belief starts having real implications in the world, especially in places that still have a nominal democracy. By bolting the door to champion for civilization's greatness, even when you can see some of its negative effects on your own life, how can you not harm yourself in this course of endeavor? You have far more doubts than you would ever post on this board, I feel. The only way to set this belief at 100% comes from repressing all the other possibilities. The "True/False" nature of this belief locks you into place. You cannot win in this situation and your choices will harm future generations.

Will the push towards dehumanization continue in absence of this mental freedom to believe that we don't have the perfect way? Of course! Civilization would easily find a way of controlling everyone down to the minutest level to ensure a "collapse" doesn't happen. Police states take little energy. People keep forgetting this.

On both sides, let me say this clearly. You have no CLUE what will happen over the next 20 years. Stop pretending on both sides. Setting probabilities at 100% harms everything around you. By allowing that we can begin to change our path, we have made a certain freedom for ourselves. If we allow ourselves the idea that we can live different ways without demanding a uniform make product/ get product lifestyle, we have a shot out of this mess. Our current path takes us into a wall in somewhat short order. Short enough for us to worry about it and make real changes for the good of humans and all life on earth.
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