http://peakoilbarrel.com/iea-oil-market-report-december-2016/#more-14372
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Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015
Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015
by Revi » Mon 30 Jan 2017, 10:06:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'B')ased on this estimate, looks like 2016 may come in below 2015. Then Dennis is predicting a big jump up in 2017. Been some oil fields bombed this week in Iraq and Iran; also, have those production cuts that may/may not happen. Hmmm... I don't see 2017 exceeding 2015.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/iea-oil-market-report-december-2016/#more-14372
http://peakoilbarrel.com/iea-oil-market-report-december-2016/#more-14372
That blob that takes us to a peak in 2018 is assuming we can start up the tar sands and heavy oil in Venezuela when the price goes up. What happens if the price doesn't go up enough to make it happen? If so, we hit peak in 2015, and we are going down from here on.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015
by ROCKMAN » Mon 30 Jan 2017, 12:29:10
Revi - "What happens if the price doesn't go up enough to make it happen?" As pointed out before one cannot call PO as it happens or even for many years afterwards. Look how close US PO more then 40 years came to being incorrect. Had prices collapsed we could have had a US PO in 2016. It will take many years, if not decades, to prove when global PO was reached. Folks are certainly free to project argue it however they want. But there's no way for anyone to PROVE they are correct.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015
by Tanada » Mon 30 Jan 2017, 13:55:27
In the meantime we pour more and more CO2 into the atmosphere and it does decrease the alkalinity of the sea water and it does increase nighttime temperatures and mid winter temperatures and it does encourage gross level climate change. I had once hope Peak Oil would alleviate CO2 emissions but I have long since concluded we clever apes will burn everything burnable.
I am also coming around to the POV that conventional peak oil when at the same time we have a couple TRILLION barrels of recoverable heavy, extra heavy, liquid oils plus another TRILLION or two of Bitumen Oil Sands that we can process is less of an issue than I once thought it was. Converting a barrel of extra heavy liquid oil into gasoline is a tough chemical manipulation, but feasible with technology on our shelf for decades. Using liquid extra heavy crude directly to provide energy for large boilers or marine diesel engines with properly adjusted systems is much simpler and we can do that; and people do that every day of the week right now.
So sure Conventional Peak was 2005 or 2008 or 2012 or 2015. So what? Unconventional has a long run ahead of it before it peaks, be that 20 or 80 years hence. I am now in the peak is price dependent camp more firmly than ever before, if the economy can pay $100/bbl for oil and stumble on we shall have much greater 'reserves' than we have at $50/bbl. The longer we spend at $100/bbl the more the consumer economy adapts to higher prices. The more we adapt the economy the higher the price can creep because the efficiencies add up.
When we were hit with the shock of 2007-08 and zoomed all the way to $147 from $60 over about 18 months it crushed a lot of people who could not adapt fast enough. But then prices crashed and recovered back to $60/bbl by late 2009 and by 2010 they were in the +$75/bbl zone that quickly went to $80-$110/bbl and stayed there from late 2010 to late 2014. During that four years the economy stumbled along and people adapted by getting more energy efficient both in the personal transport choices they made and in long distance freight. Rail traffic through this area went way way up along with the diesel price because trains can haul cargo three times as far on a gallon of fuel as can a semi-truck.
When prices recover that level I expect the same exact thing to happen, at $4/gallon for gas people buy the most fuel efficient vehicle that will meet their driving needs, and they do less driving as well, when compared to $2/gallon like we had summer 2016. This makes 'PEAK' a relative term because the higher the price the economy supports the more we can afford to pull out of the ground and the more strange technology we can use, like making synthetic fuel from electricity and CO2 and H2O, or Natural Gas to Diesel, or powdered coal water slurry as diesel fuel replacement.
I am also coming around to the POV that conventional peak oil when at the same time we have a couple TRILLION barrels of recoverable heavy, extra heavy, liquid oils plus another TRILLION or two of Bitumen Oil Sands that we can process is less of an issue than I once thought it was. Converting a barrel of extra heavy liquid oil into gasoline is a tough chemical manipulation, but feasible with technology on our shelf for decades. Using liquid extra heavy crude directly to provide energy for large boilers or marine diesel engines with properly adjusted systems is much simpler and we can do that; and people do that every day of the week right now.
So sure Conventional Peak was 2005 or 2008 or 2012 or 2015. So what? Unconventional has a long run ahead of it before it peaks, be that 20 or 80 years hence. I am now in the peak is price dependent camp more firmly than ever before, if the economy can pay $100/bbl for oil and stumble on we shall have much greater 'reserves' than we have at $50/bbl. The longer we spend at $100/bbl the more the consumer economy adapts to higher prices. The more we adapt the economy the higher the price can creep because the efficiencies add up.
When we were hit with the shock of 2007-08 and zoomed all the way to $147 from $60 over about 18 months it crushed a lot of people who could not adapt fast enough. But then prices crashed and recovered back to $60/bbl by late 2009 and by 2010 they were in the +$75/bbl zone that quickly went to $80-$110/bbl and stayed there from late 2010 to late 2014. During that four years the economy stumbled along and people adapted by getting more energy efficient both in the personal transport choices they made and in long distance freight. Rail traffic through this area went way way up along with the diesel price because trains can haul cargo three times as far on a gallon of fuel as can a semi-truck.
When prices recover that level I expect the same exact thing to happen, at $4/gallon for gas people buy the most fuel efficient vehicle that will meet their driving needs, and they do less driving as well, when compared to $2/gallon like we had summer 2016. This makes 'PEAK' a relative term because the higher the price the economy supports the more we can afford to pull out of the ground and the more strange technology we can use, like making synthetic fuel from electricity and CO2 and H2O, or Natural Gas to Diesel, or powdered coal water slurry as diesel fuel replacement.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015
by onlooker » Mon 30 Jan 2017, 14:45:57
Yes, agree with Pstarr. Your not going to be able to maintain the oil price higher for any length of time given the degree to which now less Net Energy is entering the non energy producing part of the Economy. Also, because of the endemic and systemic problems worldwide in the robustness of Economies given all the Debt burden, the unemployment and underemployment abounding and the increasing substitution of the human labor force with AI and robotic systems. So I just do not see the Economies and especially the consumers being able to finance or pay for this higher oil price.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015
by AdamB » Mon 30 Jan 2017, 16:50:57
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'B')ased on this estimate, looks like 2016 may come in below 2015. Then Dennis is predicting a big jump up in 2017. Been some oil fields bombed this week in Iraq and Iran; also, have those production cuts that may/may not happen. Hmmm... I don't see 2017 exceeding 2015.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/iea-oil-market-report-december-2016/#more-14372
http://peakoilbarrel.com/iea-oil-market-report-december-2016/#more-14372
That blob that takes us to a peak in 2018 is assuming we can start up the tar sands and heavy oil in Venezuela when the price goes up.
See those numbers back in 2008? That was when oil production was supposed to stop growing because of all the other things that peak oilers didn't know. I'm betting that all the things they still don't know are still around, so maybe yet another round of peak hysteria comes up, or doesn't, over the indicated time frame. Or peak demand does, as real energy experts are discussing, and the entire subject is irrelevant, as price is then driven by structural demand change rather than this fixation over supply that only proved people don't understand the supply/demand relationship.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('revi', '
') What happens if the price doesn't go up enough to make it happen? If so, we hit peak in 2015, and we are going down from here on.
If the price doesn't go up, it is because those energy experts talking about peak demand were right.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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