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Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby ennui2 » Wed 11 May 2016, 21:27:02

Hydrogen already does that more simply. And you can actually burn hydrogen directly without a fuel cell if you want.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby Revi » Thu 12 May 2016, 08:43:28

The future is going to be electric. Why do anything with fossil fuels? Fuel the grid with solar, wind and hydro. Why wouldn't it work? The awful secret is that we will all have to use less of everything. This includes the big consumers at the top of the OECD countries. They don't want to admit it, but flying around the planet is not sustainable and neither is the 4000 pound car. We are going to have to take the bus, or the train. Sorry folks.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby Tanada » Thu 12 May 2016, 09:11:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he future is going to be electric. Why do anything with fossil fuels? Fuel the grid with solar, wind and hydro. Why wouldn't it work? The awful secret is that we will all have to use less of everything. This includes the big consumers at the top of the OECD countries. They don't want to admit it, but flying around the planet is not sustainable and neither is the 4000 pound car. We are going to have to take the bus, or the train. Sorry folks.


Because despite the environmental damage; on a local basis fossil fuels are cheap and convenient sources of energy that can be accessed 24/7/365. Of your three "green" solutions only Hydro can make the same claim, and every suggestion to build a hydroelectric dam these days is met with howls of protest.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby GoghGoner » Thu 12 May 2016, 11:58:40

The EIA is forecasting an increase in liquids for 2016.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts that global liquid fuels supply will grow by 0.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 and by 0.8 million b/d in 2017. The supply growth comes from production increases by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that more than offset decreases in non-OPEC supply.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby Revi » Thu 12 May 2016, 12:19:17

They can forecast all they want, but the combo of old fields and the price crash is going to make it hard to increase the amount of oil produced in 2016. We are starting out lower than 2015, so I can't see it increasing, unless there is a gigantic surge of oil in the second half of the year. They just forecast this stuff so that economists can say that there will be "growth".
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby AdamB » Thu 12 May 2016, 14:24:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')hey can forecast all they want, but the combo of old fields and the price crash is going to make it hard to increase the amount of oil produced in 2016.


Nearly the same thing was said by David White of the USGS. In 1919.

And it was claimed as recently as 2011 by ASPO-USA speaking truth to power on the steps of the lions den itself!!

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases ... 07448.html

And not only was David White wrong nearly a century ago, but we know what happened 10 seconds after those experts in 2011 cut loose with their powerful statement on the impending crisis!!! (they neglected to mention the crisis was bankruptcy for the oil companies for having succeeded beyond anyone's wildest dreams)

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')We are starting out lower than 2015, so I can't see it increasing, unless there is a gigantic surge of oil in the second half of the year. They just forecast this stuff so that economists can say that there will be "growth".


As has been aptly demonstrated, guessing at up or down just doesn't work, because the sine wave profile of production can just come along and hammer you into the ground like a stake. A decent price spike because of lack of Canadian supply because of fires and presto...the next 5000 Bakken well pads are known..TODAY. All it takes is a rig and the accompanying service company crews and we're off to the races. The only thing we know for certain is we don't know anything for certain, and we certainly can't forecast tomorrows production rates with always declining curves when obviously, as demonstrated above. oil production doesn't always just decline because people hope it will.

And those economists? Here they are UNDERESTIMATING the effects of shale oil production by nearly 2 million barrels a day, just 3 and 4 years ago.

Image
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby GoghGoner » Mon 16 May 2016, 06:38:45

China down 5% surprised me - that is around 0.2 mbd. Although China is a distant 4th in oil producing standings, it still produces over 4 mbd (or it did).

Oil prices rise on Nigerian outages, Goldman forecast

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n Nigeria, output has fallen to its lowest in decades at around 1.65 million bpd following several acts of sabotage.

In the Americas, U.S. officials warned they were growing increasingly concerned by the possibility of an economic and political meltdown in Venezuela amid low oil prices.

Venezuela's oil production has already fallen by at least 188,000 bpd this year.

In the United States, crude production has fallen to 8.8 million bpd, 8.4 percent below 2015 peaks as the sector suffers a wave of bankruptcies.

And in China, output fell 5.6 percent to 4.04 million bpd in April, year-on-year.

Countering this, supply rose from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as its producers are engaged in a race for market share.

OPEC pumped 32.44 million bpd in April, up 188,000 bpd from March, the highest since at least 2008.

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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby Tanada » Mon 16 May 2016, 08:59:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'C')hina down 5% surprised me - that is around 0.2 mbd. Although China is a distant 4th in oil producing standings, it still produces over 4 mbd (or it did).

Oil prices rise on Nigerian outages, Goldman forecast

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n Nigeria, output has fallen to its lowest in decades at around 1.65 million bpd following several acts of sabotage.

In the Americas, U.S. officials warned they were growing increasingly concerned by the possibility of an economic and political meltdown in Venezuela amid low oil prices.

Venezuela's oil production has already fallen by at least 188,000 bpd this year.

In the United States, crude production has fallen to 8.8 million bpd, 8.4 percent below 2015 peaks as the sector suffers a wave of bankruptcies.

And in China, output fell 5.6 percent to 4.04 million bpd in April, year-on-year.

Countering this, supply rose from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as its producers are engaged in a race for market share.

OPEC pumped 32.44 million bpd in April, up 188,000 bpd from March, the highest since at least 2008.



Yes, right now oil is up over $47/bbl, the question is will this level hold? Goldman has spent months talking down the price of oil while they were buying up long positions, now they have started talking up the price of oil so they can sell off those long positions at a hefty profit. At least looking at their pattern over the last decade that seems to be the game they play, and they play it well enough to have significant real world impact.

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1

If you look at the year chart you will see that today's prices are higher than they have been since the start of December 2015.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby Tanada » Mon 16 May 2016, 09:15:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')We are starting out lower than 2015, so I can't see it increasing, unless there is a gigantic surge of oil in the second half of the year. They just forecast this stuff so that economists can say that there will be "growth".


As has been aptly demonstrated, guessing at up or down just doesn't work, because the sine wave profile of production can just come along and hammer you into the ground like a stake. A decent price spike because of lack of Canadian supply because of fires and presto...the next 5000 Bakken well pads are known..TODAY. All it takes is a rig and the accompanying service company crews and we're off to the races. The only thing we know for certain is we don't know anything for certain, and we certainly can't forecast tomorrows production rates with always declining curves when obviously, as demonstrated above. oil production doesn't always just decline because people hope it will.

And those economists? Here they are UNDERESTIMATING the effects of shale oil production by nearly 2 million barrels a day, just 3 and 4 years ago.

Image


That 2012-2013 graph is no more likely to come true than any other projection made from equal portions of hope and fear. One of the things these guys do when making these projects is to put "fields yet to be found" in the base quantity of oil production, as if it is a foregone conclusion we will find and develop those conventional fields no matter what else we do. They not only used that wedge to smooth their conventional oil descent curve, over the last five years on the graph they show it actually increasing from current baseline. Conventional oil in the USA has declined modestly over the 2005-2015 period even with very high oil prices motivating people to find as much as they could. Projecting that this pattern is going to reverse is totally unreasonable wish fulfillment, not science.

Adding in the "fields yet to be developed" is not unreasonable, those are places that have been identified which will be produced when the price point supports producing them.

Now we get to the big red blob, the Light Tight Oil aka fracked basin shale oil. Both the red portion and the black line revision have already been proven wrong by the passage of just a handful of years. The 2015 peak was higher, but the fall off from that 2015 peak has been much steeper than the projection as well. If the total area of Big red turns out to be accurate, which is slightly possible, then it will be a much longer tail fighting depletion, not a much larger volume available in a short time period.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby Revi » Mon 16 May 2016, 14:14:22

We are never getting back to the "good old days". The amount we are producing now is going to help us out for a little while, but there is no way we are going to be able to continue our lifestyle with the amount we'll be getting in the near future. I wish we had prepared for this day, but we didn't. C'est la vie...
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby StarvingLion » Mon 16 May 2016, 14:22:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e are never getting back to the "good old days". The amount we are producing now is going to help us out for a little while, but there is no way we are going to be able to continue our lifestyle with the amount we'll be getting in the near future. I wish we had prepared for this day, but we didn't. C'est la vie...


Revi, the "oil industry" is powered by The Hedge Funds which is powered by Money Printing. Money Printing rots out the real economy which is under the spell of "technological progress". Its all a charade now with confidence men like Warren Buffet buying the biggest garbage on the planet, shares in Apple to maintain the facade.

Its obvious now. Stop the Money Printing and the "Oil Industry" (Hedge Funds) get liquidated. The only way the oil economy can continue is:

MONEY PRINTING.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby Revi » Mon 16 May 2016, 14:24:14

I agree Starving Lion. We are in a pickle!
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby AdamB » Mon 16 May 2016, 14:30:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')That 2012-2013 graph is no more likely to come true than any other projection made from equal portions of hope and fear.


Here is the documentation for those who utilize the NEMs model to create such projections, going back quite a ways. I don't really know where to start, but when I spot checked a few, I couldn't find the "make up numbers from a hope factor of 1.4 and a fear factor of -0.2.

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/nems/documentation/

I do know that their systems appear to have systemically underestimated the effects of shale oil and gas drilling, but then most everyone did. The more pertinent question is perhaps, what will such a paradigm shift in thinking about these resources do when it flows out into the rest of the world? We have some idea as to potential...

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/

but until EIA completes a project of this scale...

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/documentat ... 140211.pdf

we'll all just have to enjoy the glut I suppose.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby AdamB » Mon 16 May 2016, 14:36:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e are never getting back to the "good old days".


Too late. Already there.

Paid $1.89 for regular unleaded the other day Here is the CPI calculator I used,

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl

and it turns out that is $0.31/gal in 1970.

Woo Hoo!! When are we going to get the tail fins and steel bumpers back!!

Okay fine, so fuel is back to the good old days, but we still have plastic cars. But still...it is easy to see that this isn't a fuel issue anymore...but more of a "who stole my steel bumpers!!" problem.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') The amount we are producing now is going to help us out for a little while, but there is no way we are going to be able to continue our lifestyle with the amount we'll be getting in the near future. I wish we had prepared for this day, but we didn't. C'est la vie...


That is what we said before the amount we are producing now helped out. And that amount? Is just LURKING in the shadows, waiting for that great graph Tanada used elsewhere keeps doing what it does, the consumer doing what they do, just like they did in the 80's and into the 2000's, and then price begins to move, and so does drilling, and so on and so forth just like POD says it will and then all the hoping and prepping and building holes to put Punjabi sticks in the front yard...will be drowned in yet ANOTHER flood of oil.

The day we need, badly, is the one Amy Jaffe lays out, and if she is right (and it certainly looks more like her world than the one the peak oilers envisioned) then supply isn't the issue at all.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby Revi » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 10:26:24

Here's the latest post on Peak Oil Barrel. It looks more and more like we hit a peak in the end of last year.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/eia-world-crud ... roduction/
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby ennui2 » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 10:34:28

The same kind of argument in this thread is occurring there:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')“The decline in production is not due to the price crash”

Much more wells should have been added to offset output decline from older wells.
They were not added due to price crash.


This debate will just keep circling around until we have a really unambiguous signal of depletion. Pointing to production graphs trending downard doesn't cut it because it is easily shrugged off due to the glut. It has to coincide with price spikes and spot-shortages and sustain itself for an extended period.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby vtsnowedin » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 11:21:38

We will get there soon enough.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ts-slashed
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Postby Tanada » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 12:45:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')e will get there soon enough.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ts-slashed


Did you link the correct article? That one seems to be all the glory days are here! Low oil prices for as far as the eye can see! They are projecting massive demand destruction for climate treaty reasons.
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