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Oil price - What is going on???

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: What is going on???

Unread postby PeakOilPrincess » Sun 10 Sep 2006, 18:54:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'W')hat is going on??? elections in USA .



Wow, I guess it is "Morning Again In America" [smilie=drunken_smilie.gif]
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby Vexed » Sun 10 Sep 2006, 19:17:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Laughs_Last', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheTurtle', 'W')hen US oil production peaked in the lower 48 back in the early 70s, the price of gasoline fell significantly. I see the latest drop in prices as just an indication that oil has, indeed, peaked globally.

On the other hand, being a child of the consumer age, I am strangely compelled to now stop riding the bus and instead go buy myself a Humvee for my daily commute. Razz
Have you seen the military's new Diesel-Electric Hybrid Humvee? It gets a whopping 18 MPG, twice the base model's 9. It has better acceleration, higher top speed, and an all-electric stealth mode. I want one so bad.


That's so sweet! I'm gonna get one of those when they go public and mod it out with a twin turbo and some Fast and Furious seat covers.

Then, the next addition to the collection of vehicles in my driveway will be a personal helicopter. No sh*t! And they're only $30,000! What a steal!
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby EndDays » Sun 10 Sep 2006, 21:16:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Golgo13', 'T')hat test in your sig is a bit dishonest, EndDays, because getting to heaven in the Christian doctrine has absolutely nothing to do with being good. "Goodness" doesn't even begin to enter the picture at any point as a criteria for admittance.

Not making it to heaven (and all it entails) is decidedly a punishment for not being Christian™.

A much more honest, direct, and concise approach would have been to simply ask if the person was Christian™ enough to go to heaven. Assuming it's even possible, that is.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')Praise HawkMan


What We Need More Of Is Science


I wasn't intending to highjack the thread, I was simply showing you the misunderstanding you have comparing Christ to "religion".

As for the test, the point is to show us that we've all broken God's Law, therefore we cannot possibly be good enough to go to Heaven. Its only by God's Grace (Mercy) can we be saved, and He gave us this Grace by taking our punishment on Himself (Jesus Christ).

You see Aaron, Jesus Christ or God the Son, took that punishment and suffering because He loves us and wanted to save us. He didn't mess up or fail, He came for one purpose, to die on the cross.

The universe is built on laws and this includes the moral law. When the moral law is broken, this is sin and God has to punish sin. If He did not punish sin or lawbreakers, then He would be corrupt. God cannot be corrupt so He gives us a choice. He came and took our punishment on Himself and offers it to those who will repent and accept it, but for those who reject it and die in sin, they will remain under God's Wrath come Judgment Day.

I'm just warning you guys what the Bible says, and there is every reason to believe it is God's Word.

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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby rogerhb » Sun 10 Sep 2006, 21:38:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndDays', 'C')hrist is not "religion", a belief system or a series of rituals


Christ is not a religion

Christianity is.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby Chicken_Little » Sun 10 Sep 2006, 21:55:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndDays', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'I')'m trying to illuminate a central component of our worldview & assumptions about our place in it.

It really matters very little which belief system you examine... at the very core of almost every ideology, there is a common idea.

And it's the message of HawkMan:

Because I can.

Without knowing it, you are almost all disciples of HawkMan.

HawkMan, Allah, Jesus, Vishnu... whatever.



Here's the other side of that.

The Bible does prophesize about a coming time where the whole world, minus the followers of Christ will worship the Beast. So your idea is not new, in fact there is a huge world movement to unite the "religions". But therein lies the problem, and God warned us about it.

Christ is not "religion", a belief system or a series of rituals, He is alive and He is our only Saviour. Christianity is about a restored relationship with our living God, not trying to be "good" enough to get to Him, because we can't. Christ did all the work for us, we just need to repent and trust Him.

Its a love I'll never quite fully understand, but He did it anyway for people as rotten as us.

For what you're saying about those other people - there is no other way, because Christ and Christ alone paid the penalty for our sins, thus without Him, we remain dead in sin, seperated from God and will face God's Wrath on Judgment Day.

Creating an idol named HawkMan will not change that, Aaron and I say that because I care.

ED




Why don't you just fuck off and die Aslan.

You got your ass kicked in the fucking book, you got your ass kicked in the fucking movie, and you're stil coming back for more.

edit to add:- I'm referring to you, EndDays. You're such a fucking arsehole it's practically unbelievable.

I worship Hawkman.

If anyone else does not believe in Hawkman then i have a serious problem with them.


In fact I think people who don't believe in Hawkman should be killed.
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby frznghost » Sun 10 Sep 2006, 22:19:00

Gasoline is notably cheaper. Because the Martians didn't send a space vessel with a trillion barrels in the cargo hold, we'll have to look at oil demand instead. There's a lot of news lately about the economy getting weaker. Also, the summer driving season is over now. Both would count as demand erosion.

There's also some basic market sense involved, like a so-far soft hurricane season and softer geopolitical tensions.
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby Golgo13 » Sun 10 Sep 2006, 22:22:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chicken_Little', '
')I worship Hawkman.

If anyone else does not believe in Hawkman then i have a serious problem with them.

In fact I think people who don't believe in Hawkman should be killed.


You've got to appreciate the awesomeness of this veneration.

Chicken_Little giving magnificent accolades of biblical proportions to noneother than Hawkman.
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby Chicken_Little » Sun 10 Sep 2006, 22:34:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndDays', '
')The universe is built on laws and this includes the moral law.

ED


The universe is not built on 'laws', it's built on observed phenomena which appear to follow particular patterns, but of course you can't spell most of those words.

You know what you are, EndDays?

You know how ignorant you sound to someone like me?

You sound like a dirtbag from the wrong side of the tracks who's been to jail too many times.

You're subhuman.
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby gg3 » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 00:51:03

So, ChickenLittle, EndDays is subhuman because of his religion, eh?

You do remember what happened the last time that belief system got going, don't you? Tried it last time with the Jews and it didn't work, now it's time to try it with Christians?

I see your location, "Airstrip One," which if I'm not mistaken was Orwell's name for London in 1984. You do know what happened to London in the 1940s, don't you? Got any relatives who died in the rocket bombings or on the battle fronts?

RE. "You know how ignorant you sound to someone like me?" I can guess how he sounds to you, but I'm going to tell you how you sound to me. You sound like a nazi. You sound like a nazi who's looking for another batch of scapegoats to feed to the gas chambers, or if not that grandiose, then someone you can knock over on a street corner.

By the way, if you are half way as full of hatreds as your postings indicate, probability is that such sentiments are frequently heard during your phone conversations.

In that case I have some news for you, Mr. Chicken. Not only can we recognize keywords in context, and not only can we track voiceprint by rhythmic as well as melodic markers, but we can also read emotional state by intonation and inflection, and the best part is, there is no way to beat any of it. (Go ahead, pick up your phone and say "anthrax" or "plutonium." The intercept system spits those out like a spam filter.) Your hatreds, and the objects thereof, have been duly noted. Welcome to the machine, my dude, say Hello to the folks at Bletchley, because there is a high probability that you have been logged into the database of possible terrorist threats.

Remember, "hate crime is the singular, terrorism is the plural." You'll hear that line again some day. When you do, try to avoid soiling yourself...

---

For the record, I happen to disagree with EndDays' interpretation of Christianity and I'd debate the case at length, but as Americans often say, I'll also stand up and defend his right to freedom of conscience and belief. And I have less than zero tolerance for nazis.

---

If I were a sysadmin around here I'd freeze this topic and archive it under the heading "why humans are doomed: the psychology of reactive hatreds."
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 05:08:08

The Nazis are getting very old now...
---
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 05:30:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fergus', 'F')or an intelligent creature, we are some of the dumbest creatures god created.


We're not dumb.

We're malevolent. Even when we're trying to play nice.


I don't know about that. It's a perception thing I guess. The whole one mans freedom fighter is another mans terrorist.

Aside from the fact that humans don't really know what the meaning of life is, we eat, drink, sleep, breathe and breed just as we did tens of thousands of years ago.

Today we can build skyscrapers, drill and mine immense quantities of energy and launch objects into the far reaches of space. Apart from technology what has fundamentally changed about the human race?
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby Andrew_S » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 05:30:34

Getting back on topic.

:yawn: [smilie=sleepy1.gif]

If the 200-day moving average starts dropping, wake me up.
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 05:41:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Andrew_S', 'G')etting back on topic.

:yawn: [smilie=sleepy1.gif]

If the 200-day moving average starts dropping, wake me up.


If there is a good chunk of swing capacity built up, without a major recession come wake me up.

When you're talking about Peak Oil and $150 - $200 BBL oil then whats $10-$20 here or there. Patience grasshopper :)
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 11:40:31

For anyone who believes in the long term effects PO will have on the price of oil, there are some great buys out there today in some very good energy companies.

As for why the price is dropping, it's just current supply and demand, which are determined, in part, by the PERCEPTION of what near and medium term supply and demand WILL be. Rising inventories, big find in the Gulf of Mexico, Iran seems not to be completely insane, everything must be okay. Sure. Everything's fine.

Anybody seen Evil Dead II, when he's looking in the mirror trying to convince himself everything is okay. His reflection reaches through the mirror and tries to choke him to death.

We'll get back to reality after the U.S. elections in November.
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby TWilliam » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 11:41:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', '
')---

For the record, I happen to disagree with EndDays' interpretation of Christianity and I'd debate the case at length, but as Americans often say, I'll also stand up and defend his right to freedom of conscience and belief. And I have less than zero tolerance for nazis.

---


Ummm... not that I disagree with the overall sentiment (apart from the fact that I have little tolerance for Nazis or Christians), but I thought I'd mention that this would fall under the general heading of hypocrisy. Nazism is a belief system, just as Chritianity is a belief system, and if your ideals demand you defend the Christian's right to his beliefs, then you must extend that same defense to the Nazi, else you are being a hypocrite.

Oh and incidentally, far more people have died at the hands of hateful bigoted Christians than Hitler ever dreamed of eradicating...
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby rwwff » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 12:00:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'O')h and incidentally, far more people have died at the hands of hateful bigoted Christians than Hitler ever dreamed of eradicating...


Perhaps, but just imagine how many people us bad ole Northern Europeans would have put to the sword if we'd selected, say, Mars as our figure of worship. A more bloodthirsty war god you couldn't hardly ask for, I think.

Priests of Mars would have never stood for any of this Kyoto & Just War nonsense; just send in the army and kill'em all. If they nuke a couple cities in retaliation, its acceptable losses; they died well after all.
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby Andrew_S » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 14:32:59

321 energy says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ight Sweet Crude Oil 01:29 pm
$65.85 $0.55 0.835% 12 (vl)
Brent Crude Oil 01:30 pm
$77.21 $0.00 0.000% 4 (vl)


Is Brent really over $10 more?


If so what *is* going on?
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 18:15:44

.

What is all this talk about prices going down? Diesel hasn’t gone down, kerosene hasn’t gone down, jet fuel hasn’t changed and neither has propane or heating oil, gas has moved down about 35 cents. Some one will drop a bomb on somebody else, a tanker will ground, Asser WhatEverHisName will get assassinated, or someone will fart on the Chicago Commodities Exchange, and crude prices will spiral back up. Its just the times, and those are Peak Oil!

.
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby o2ny » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 18:43:00

Maybe it's time for a point-by-point dissection of the falling oil price to see if we can come to a rational conclusion:

Seasonal:

- Hurricane season a bust
- Summer driving season over
- Winter heating oil not yet in demand

Geo-political

- Iran calming down*
- No major pipeline bombings/supply disruptions

Supply/demand:

- Chevron's "big" discovery in the gulf :roll:
- Economy looking sluggish
- Recession may be coming thanks to housing deflation

I'm sure more can be added to this list, but in my mind these are the major price drivers right now.

In regards to Iran- I'm thinking the White House may have toned down the rhetoric lately in order to precipitate a drop in the oil price before mid-terms. The 'tough talk' is likely to begin again in mid-November.

Personally I'm thinking oil may be oversold (or at least is close). This decline has been the longest period it seems where we've only had *good news* - the gulf discovery, Prudhoe bay coming back, rising inventories, Iran tensions easing... it seemed like all spring/summer we were hearing once a week about pipelines exploding, Nigeria in chaos, Iran making threats, fields declining, China's voracious demand, etc. It's a winning streak that can't continue much longer... the geo-political fundamentals haven't changed, nor have the geological fundamentals. I'm really getting more and more suspicious about this drop being tied to mid-terms.

Also- from a sheer psychological perpsective- when everyone goes into 'doom & gloom' mode that's usually a good time to buy. Seems like most of the analysts are getting very bearish right now...
"If you're always looking for the invisible hand to guide you, you will find that the invisible hand often gives you the invisible finger." - some guy on CNBC
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Re: What is going on???

Unread postby americandream » Mon 11 Sep 2006, 21:00:09

Lol.....the power of the system is in it's inherent contradictions. Numero Uno...is the sight of these Americans in here with nothing to do but shoot the breeze, wait for Armageddon, and chew the fat...all the while polishing the chrome on the truck out back.

Errr......the system's gonna topple over dudes...not yet tho. Wait a while till all 6 billion are shooting the breeze, waiting for blahdy de blah, an chewing the chuck steak......but then all of the world will be so buggered up I reckon no one's likely to notice cept a few computer nerds.
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