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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Nothing to fear but fear itself

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:40:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09-', '
')
Ludi:
There are things as efficient as oil. It's what Monte speaks of call scalability that's the main problem.


Yes, scalability. A property of oil. That's why we're talking about peak oil, not peak energy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Of course, I don't think any species has exploited energy. I could be wrong, but I'm guessing most of the things were food, land, grass, water, or things along that line. They are all indirectly energy but not the same as our kind.


Don't forget in our case energy translates into such things as food and water.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby JudoCow09 » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:42:33

ANd fire produces heat and heat is energy, not to mention the reaction itself is creating energy(which is probably the heat). Yep, no energy there.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:46:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', '
')
To which I would say go read up on hydrogen storage, or look at the curve of battery density (power/weight or power/volume) over the last few years. And then read up on 'alternative energy' deployment over the past few years, multiply it out by the factor required to offset the ASPO decline curve, and see if it really seems so hard (caveat, next 35 years is my standard figure)


Yes, it does seem "so hard." Alternative energy, not counting nukes and hydroelectric, makes up 2% of our energy production. It has made up 2% for years. I'm looking to see it make up more than 2%, when will that be? Because it needs to increase at 2 - 4% per year to make up the expected decline.

Where is that going to come from?



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ort of. The thing with theoretical, is it tend to move off the lab bench and into industry when the demand arises - and with that comes a massive increase in the research budgets and speed of development.


So, when the economy is in dire straits for lack of cheap energy, there will suddenly be massive increase in research budgets?

See, I just have a hard time believing that's possible.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:47:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')es, scalability. A property of oil. That's why we're talking about peak oil, not peak energy.


Unless you are talking about the Olduvai Theory. That does talk about peak energy per capita circa 1979.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby JudoCow09 » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:47:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, scalability. A property of oil. That's why we're talking about peak oil, not peak energy.


Doesn't always sound that way around here.

But that is the problem, isn't it? Energy? Sure, the energy comes from oil, and it's convient that way, but the problem is energy, is it not?

I'm sure Monte will disagree, but if energy is the problem, which it is, oil is just convient energy, and energy can't be destroyed nor created, then we can't exploit such a resource since it can't be used up. Therefore, even if we lose all cheap energy from oil, we will still have other energy therefore not making us applicable for Overshoot since we can't exploit an infinite resource. I would say "Right?", but of course then Monte or someone else quote and say "No".
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:48:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09-', 'L')udi:
There are things as efficient as oil. It's what Monte speaks of call scalability that's the main problem. Of course, I don't think any species has exploited energy. I could be wrong, but I'm guessing most of the things were food, land, grass, water, or things along that line. They are all indirectly energy but not the same as our kind. Monte, can you give me several examples of species that have gone into overshoot and then experienced a die-off? I'm not challenging the Law, I was just wondering.


Energy = food. If that clears things up. Man no longer is a hunter gatherer, with a few exceptions.

Here is the best known example of overshoot and die-off.

St. Matthews Island

http://www.kenai-peninsula.org/archives/000033.html
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby Jaymax » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:48:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')e are talking about a species discovering a heretofore unexploited and previously unaccessible resource


Explain to me how fire does not fit that definition?


Fire is chemical reaction, not a food/energy source.


Buring whatever is available = release of stored energy.
Buring oil = release of stored energy.

In any case, you know prefectly well that I was addressing. Something about expanding the niche. "heretofore unexploited and previously unaccessible resource" - eg: flaming wood - not wood for building, burning wood.

Of course, if you want to change the definition, go ahead.

I've unfortunatly decided which of the two 'scenarios' I set out previously you fit. Shame. Still open to you setting out those terms...

--J
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:50:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, scalability. A property of oil. That's why we're talking about peak oil, not peak energy.


Doesn't always sound that way around here.

But that is the problem, isn't it? Energy? Sure, the energy comes from oil, and it's convient that way, but the problem is energy, is it not?
.


It doesn't matter how much energy there is if we can't get to it, or if it is too expensive to warrant its extraction. That's the point about peak oil. The end of cheap energy.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:53:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'I')n any case, you know prefectly well that I was addressing. Something about expanding the niche. "heretofore unexploited and previously unaccessible resource" - eg: flaming wood - not wood for building, burning wood.


Which reminds me of HHGTTG 3rd Ark.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Douglas Adams', 'S')eeing as we have decided to use leaves as money we have all become immensely rich and now suffer from inflation with one major deciduous forest required for one ship's peanut. As a matter of fiscal policy we have decided to burn down the forests
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby JudoCow09 » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:53:35

Well, the end of vegies wouldn't knock out humans. Put it this way.

Cheap Energy is a component of Energy

Dairy products are a component of Food

Hmmm....
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 22:55:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'S')omething about expanding the niche. "heretofore unexploited and previously unaccessible resource" - eg: flaming wood - not wood for building, burning wood.


...and by what definition is wood "previously unaccessible"? How do you think we actually had an iron age?
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 23:01:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', ' ')But that is the problem, isn't it? Energy? Sure, the energy comes from oil, and it's convient that way, but the problem is energy, is it not?


No, the problem is the end of cheap, readily available energy without which we could not have built life as we know it.

What we have learned from the last 100 years is that having oil makes work easier and more profitable and enables a way of living otherwise impossible.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m sure Monte will disagree, but if energy is the problem, which it is, oil is just convient energy, and energy can't be destroyed nor created, then we can't exploit such a resource since it can't be used up. Therefore, even if we lose all cheap energy from oil, we will still have other energy therefore not making us applicable for Overshoot since we can't exploit an infinite resource. I would say "Right?", but of course then Monte or someone else quote and say "No".


Trouble is Judo, you don't have "access" to that other energy. We can't as yet "tap" it in any appreciable amount.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 23:09:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', ' ')In any case, you know prefectly well that I was addressing. Something about expanding the niche. "heretofore unexploited and previously unaccessible resource" - eg: flaming wood - not wood for building, burning wood.

Of course, if you want to change the definition, go ahead.

I've unfortunatly decided which of the two 'scenarios' I set out previously you fit. Shame. Still open to you setting out those terms...

--J


No I did not. You are adding factors that are not part of the overshoot equation. The "resource" is food. Humans turn energy into food.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby Jaymax » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 23:10:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'A')nd then read up on 'alternative energy' deployment over the past few years, multiply it out by the factor required to offset the ASPO decline curve, and see if it really seems so hard (caveat, next 35 years is my standard figure)


Yes, it does seem "so hard." Alternative energy, not counting nukes and hydroelectric, makes up 2% of our energy production. It has made up 2% for years. I'm looking to see it make up more than 2%, when will that be? Because it needs to increase at 2 - 4% per year to make up the expected decline.


Standard figures, quoted repeatedly around here.

Thing is, there's no really strong market pressure to develop alternatives - after all, the market knows oil is abundant.

It we increased the deployment of wind energy about 7 times the rate in deployed in 2003, that would offset half the decline in fossil energy. New Scientist article in today's issue talked about existing technologies to increase the efficiency of coal fires power stations fro the typical 30% to about 50% - admittedly, nothing that can be retro-fitted, but for new plants. That's HUGE. Mass manufacture of solar energy is moving in leaps and bounds. This year for the first time, we will see the production manufacture of roof-effect wind turbines for homes. And there's more - do the research and math for yourself... Not what's out there presently in term of alternatives, but what would actually be required to replace oil decline post-peak (standard 35 yrs comment applies).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ort of. The thing with theoretical, is it tend to move off the lab bench and into industry when the demand arises - and with that comes a massive increase in the research budgets and speed of development.


So, when the economy is in dire straits for lack of cheap energy, there will suddenly be massive increase in research budgets?


These massive research budgets will still be a drop in the ocean for post-peak recession governments. And post-peak, it is not unreasonable to expect governments to put a few more ocean-drops in the direction of sorting out what they will eventually identify as the problem. HOWEVER - in a peak oil induced recession, even depression, it is not unreasonable to assume that (a) governments will invest in energy research, and (b) companies producing alternatives will not be the ones going broke, and will continue to conduct research.

[quote]See, I just have a hard time believing that's possible.[/quote

So did I. I went through the standard process. Disbelief (0), dismissal (1), limited understanding (2), fear (3), acceptance of the 'reality' of peak oil doomerism (4/5) after reading a lot round here.

And then I started trying to back up my arguments to non-peak-oil believers - did my own research - slowly learnt that while things are not good in terms of botted energy, things are NOT as bad as many on here portray. In large part because people focus on what's been done, absent of market pressures, rather than looking to calculate what might be required to be done in the future, one the peak starts to bite...

--J
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 23:14:25

Some clarity:

A heretofore unexploited and previously inaccessible resource is food.

Humans use energy to create food.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 23:30:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'L')oads of stuff


Even a number of years past the stock market crash which marked the start of the great depression of the 30s people were still saying that this is temporary and things will just sort themselves out.

The OPEC embargo had such an effect because the US had passed it's peak. Similarly China playing it's "we're not going to play the dollar game any more" would be fantastically effective post peak.

So these huge volumes of dollars to develop all the alternatives are going to be worthless pieces of paper. You are already propping up the stock market now with funny money, how long do you think that is going to last post-peak?
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby JudoCow09 » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 23:30:38

I'll wait to argue until you refine that last post.

Please explain to me how food was once unaccessible. I don't recall food ever being unacessible. If it was, then NO SPECIES would exist. We'd all be dead. Unless, of course, you're talking about 4.6 billion years ago and that we'll all die now 4.6 billion years later in a matter of decades.

And by the way, we don't know what the world population could have been without oil. We have only shortly inhabited, oh I don't know, half the planet recently. Population was growing before oil came along, It just boosted us. Just to say.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 08 Sep 2005, 23:40:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'P')lease explain to me how food was once unaccessible. I don't recall food ever being unacessible.


So famine is something that only happens in works of fiction?

It's not "food being unaccessible", it's the volume of food for the population continually accessible.

It's about the volume that needs to be produced once we have less energy available.

It's a "numbers problem", a "scalability problem", it's a "there are just too bloody many of us problem".
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 09 Sep 2005, 00:00:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'I')'ll wait to argue until you refine that last post.

Please explain to me how food was once unaccessible. I don't recall food ever being unacessible. If it was, then NO SPECIES would exist. We'd all be dead. Unless, of course, you're talking about 4.6 billion years ago and that we'll all die now 4.6 billion years later in a matter of decades.

And by the way, we don't know what the world population could have been without oil. We have only shortly inhabited, oh I don't know, half the planet recently. Population was growing before oil came along, It just boosted us. Just to say.


Judo,

Heretofore=up until now. In this case, fossil fuels were inaccessible by man in any great degree for most of known history.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby JudoCow09 » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 00:17:37

Forget it. Even in the most obvious case that you seem wrong, you still are convinced you're right. Forget that. We don't need a debate on something pointless.

And just so you know, I would have less faith in technology if every week or two I didn't hear about some improvement. Blind pessimist. Tsk tsk.
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