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Nothing to fear but fear itself

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 01:43:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'F')orget it. Even in the most obvious case that you seem wrong, you still are convinced you're right.


And what obvious case would that be?
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby aldente » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 02:17:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I') expect a dieoff of approximately 80% of global population. Following my design, the first world could avoid that. The rest of the world will not.


This statement of course is a nuisence, Jack and you know that. What makes you think that existing systems don't fight for their own survival?? I mean political systems!
A "dieoff" is not a gradual, mathematical curve.... but in reality a FUCKING NIGHTMARE. My conclusion recently was that the various leaderships (yes there are more than the one in the US of A) are likewise loosing it alltoghether once pushed over the brink .
Since atomic weapons, the creatures of ultimate destruction are still well and alive, the past never became the present and the nighmare of a - silent- nuclear winter is as present as it ever was since the day Hiroshima was bombed and this kind of warfare lost its virginity.
But then again, let's not elaborate bad vibes and I might get over it after having smoked my cigarillo... ah- there my vibe comes back of hope that our "one" mind is able to influence the outcome.
There is no democracy of minds and opinions! Our "mind" is a beautiful thing and strikingly influential. After all it might be true that what we "think" we create!

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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby rogerhb » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 04:29:50

The Only Thing We Have To Fear Is Mindless Hope.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 08:36:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'T')he Only Thing We Have To Fear Is Mindless Hope.


I do fear it, because it prevents people from getting off their butts and doing something. They can just sit there being boosters. Optimists accuse doomers of being "hopeless" and not doing anything, but many if not most of the people in the Planning forum are doomers or moderates, and they're doing quite a bit, not just sitting and moping about how doomed we are. I doubt there are any optimists in there at all.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby rogerhb » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 08:54:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') doubt there are any optimists in there at all.


Do I count as an optimist? I'm actually an optimistic doomer, rather than a doomed optimist. Because I've got all my shit in one sock after being a gloomy doomer for a bit I'm now optimistic that at least it won't be as bad for us as for the doomed optimists.

Just to confuse the issue, politically I'm on the far right of the left wing rather than on the far left of the right wing, perhaps I'm trying to stay in the fuselage.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 09:00:47

I should have said "cornucopians" instead of "optimists" because I'm quite optimistic myself (being a utopian and all). Maybe I should have used the term "Lander."

Maybe you're an optessimist - a person who believes in a wonderful age of renewal after a disasterous collapse! :-D
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby rogerhb » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 09:07:29

Yes "Lander" hasn't been used so much lately.

I think we will land with the undercarriage stuck halfway down, one of the engines is on fire and there is a mechanical digger on the runway to the front. The oxygen masks have all deployed, most passengers are in the crash position but just like the Airplane movie there is a nun playing the guitar, unfortunately that's the pilot. The fog is closing in and the runway lights have gone out.

:-D
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby JustinFrankl » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 11:07:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'P')lease explain to me how food was once unaccessible. I don't recall food ever being unacessible. If it was, then NO SPECIES would exist. We'd all be dead. Unless, of course, you're talking about 4.6 billion years ago and that we'll all die now 4.6 billion years later in a matter of decades.

And by the way, we don't know what the world population could have been without oil. We have only shortly inhabited, oh I don't know, half the planet recently. Population was growing before oil came along, It just boosted us. Just to say.

The argument being presented is that as food (energy) becomes more accessible, a population will grow, assuming there isn't something else that would limit population growth.

Prior to the advent of civlization, most humans on the planet abided by what we now call "animal ethics", "the peacekeeping law", or "the law of limited competition". Briefly, it means that a species may compete to the full extent of its abilties, but it may not exterminate its competitors, exterminate its competitors' food, or deny its competitors access to food. Nearly all species abide by this rule, and for 300,000 years Homo sapiens did, too. When all species in a community abide by this rule, they may all exist, but they are all kept in check, they are all limited.

When our civilization decided to no longer abide by this rule, it allowed our resource base (food) to increase, and our population grew much faster than it did before (not being limited by anything else, like lack of clean air, water, land, etc.)

And as for oil boosting us, you're exactly right. And when the peak has passed, oil can no longer boost us, nor even maintain us, because its supply is depleting. We must replace the lost energy from the loss of oil production, so we must get energy from somewhere else. Like solar panels, or hydroelectric dams, or nuclear plants, or algae farms. All of which require the investment of energy to develop, scale, mine, process, construct, package, distribute, install etc. But the energy needed to do all of that will be coming from a system whose available energy is declining, a system that will need all the energy it can get just to maintain what it currently has.

A constant flow of energy is needed to maintain the order of a system, whether that system is the human body, the weather, the economy, the government, the ecosystem. When the energy flow decreases, disorder increases. Any place where you would "take" energy from for an increase in solar panels, hydroelectric dams, nuclear plants, or algae farms, in a system where the energy input, in terms of oil, is already declining, will only increase the amount of disorder in the system as a whole.

If the system weren't dependent on oil, if there weren't 6.5 billion of us needing it, if we weren't so close to the peak, if it didn't take decades to build infrastructure, if we didn't have a system dependent on growth, if we weren't already experiencing global warming, if the laws of physics weren't stacked against us, and if people within this system didn't have a tendency to avoid dealing with a problem until it's right on top of them, this could be manageable. Otherwise, not so much.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby Guest » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 14:31:17

Good post, Justin! :) Glad to see you have a full grasp of this, including entropy and the required energy flow-through to maintain system order.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby richardmmm » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 15:05:28

don't forget that not all energy comes from oil. oil is a source for locomotion mainly, most electricity comes from non oil sources.

there are short term alternatives to keep things in motion, coal gas, hydrogen, alcohol etc.

solar can easily start taking off if the need arises.

the thing is that the need never arises because the oil companies keep things so volatile that investments get washed away when oil prices come back down.

if oil really starts to dry up we'll see the investment happening.

there would certainly be a strain on the system and high prices / rationing might have to be put into effect, but replacement energies will naturally take over once prices and supplies start to get genuninely crimped.

what's going on in 2005-10 is not demand more than supply, it is more supplies getting crimped deliberatley, to keep things volatile and raise prices, utimately to wash out alternatives in investment and get us comfortable with oil again.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby sameu » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 16:03:53

ok just one more thing, and please correct me if I'm wrong, this Libigg's law seems to be correct for a lot of animals, limiting resource, die-off blabla

but are these animals living a luxurious life like ours? do they make city trips? do they eat fast food? do they drive to their gym with their suv's? do they heat their swimming pools and have four computers/televisions ands vcr's on stand by?

I'm guessing not.

How much oil do we need to stay alive? That's the true question here. We need a lot of it to sustain our luxurious lives, and you Americans even a lot more than the rest of the world (and yes that's a blame).
Will there be a die-off, sure, of the luxury
But I'm not so sure we will all just die because of the declining oil production.

The energy of the sun is not accessible, 'tapable' Monte says, well yes, not to fill up your suv, or to import chinese plastic crap, or to fill up an aeroplane to fly to some holiday resort

But I can tap it for the heating of my water, for the cooking of my food, to grow stuff in my garden (I don't have one but let's just disgard this fact)

And if we stop using oil for useless crap, we'll have plenty for the essential stuff (fertilizers for example, for those who don't have a garden :-D )
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby backstop » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 17:05:36

sameu -

you're assuming fair shares of the remaining oil - which would be nice -

but at the moment people are dying in Indonesia because some averagely obese SUV driving gluttons are wasting their share on a bizarre ego-trip.

What is the prospect of achieving fair shares ?

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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 20:11:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', '
')Will there be a die-off, sure, of the luxury
But I'm not so sure we will all just die because of the declining oil production.


Monte has never claimed "we will all just die." He's often stated that the die off in the developed world will be a die off of our standard of living. If you believe a higher standard of living results in a higher likelihood of survival (because of better food, better medical care, etc), then a lower standard of living might result in a lesser likelihood of survival. This is all a matter of degree and highly debatable. But do at least be clear on what is being predicted. In the developed world , a die-off of our standard of living; in the Third World, an actual die off.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby aldente » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 01:45:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'T')he Only Thing We Have To Fear Is Mindless Hope.

Hey Roger, did you refer this sentence to the last words of my previous post: After all it might be true that what we "think" we create!
??

Look again. Hope is not mentioned, eventhough all I essentially concluded that I "hope" that a nuclear war can be avoided. If there is truth to my statement than we can conclude that you hope for your death, don't you?

Death for a system, any system that is, be it a political ruling structure, individual humanoid or whatever else- is the utmost earth shattering experience to go through. We might not be aware of it and "thinking" about death does not count since it is just an abstract. Experiencing it on the other hand will bring out demons that we never knew were there.

A friend of mine did observe that a majority of posters here are followers of a "death-cult" called PO. "Wrong" will be your first association, he's got it wrong we have the facts, correct?

The facts don't matter. Of course PO is accurate and things come to an end. Every living system has a live span and so has this oil driven civilisation, probably it is just 100 years as Duncan states. What's the big fuzz then all about. Dieoff? A result of developments that are beyond our control. Yes, undisputable. So why getting all worked up about it?

Ahhhh, it is the individuals inability to cope with death!

So it is true that we are a death cult here contemplating our end. Yes or no? In a political system there are nuclear weapons though. Once it all gets irrational some "ruling"wackos might feel obligated to take it all down with them...

All minds are connected though and if a critical mass does not allow this to happen it will not. The only way we all can influence anything is though our mind.

Don't think positive, think rational.
Don't think negative, think rational.

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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 03:01:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'o')k just one more thing, and please correct me if I'm wrong, this Libigg's law seems to be correct for a lot of animals, limiting resource, die-off blabla

but are these animals living a luxurious life like ours? do they make city trips? do they eat fast food? do they drive to their gym with their suv's? do they heat their swimming pools and have four computers/televisions ands vcr's on stand by?

I'm guessing not.


And your point? Cut out the waste? Ok, then how high does unemployment need to go to rid ourselves of the waste? How low do wages have to go? How far down does the standard of living have to fall to achieve this? Do you volunteer to lose your job?

Conservation is a self-induced recession followed by high unemployment. The consumption of "luxury" and the production of "waste" employs millions!

Conservation and capitalism do not mix. How will we deal with those that are displaced?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow much oil do we need to stay alive? That's the true question here.


No, the question here is what is the limiting factor that will determine carrying capacity.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e need a lot of it to sustain our luxurious lives, and you Americans even a lot more than the rest of the world (and yes that's a blame).
Will there be a die-off, sure, of the luxury
But I'm not so sure we will all just die because of the declining oil production.


Who said we will all just die? Not me. Not Liebig's Law.

So, let me ask you. If the standard of living goes down, does human mortality go up? If the access to energy goes down, does human mortality go up?

If you say no, then why does human mortality go down when the standard of living or access to energy goes up?

Have you read my scenario? It's posted in the PO Discussion forum.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he energy of the sun is not accessible, 'tapable' Monte says, well yes, not to fill up your suv, or to import chinese plastic crap, or to fill up an aeroplane to fly to some holiday resort


It is not accessible in the manner and time frame that we need it. And it is here that we need it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd if we stop using oil for useless crap, we'll have plenty for the essential stuff (fertilizers for example, for those who don't have a garden :-D )

Ah, but what happens when the next 3 billion people descends upon us over the next fifty years? Where will their share of the energy come from? Conservation will provide for existing and future consumption needs, plus make up for the decline in oil production?

What about the people who are displaced by the lost of sales from "useless crap"? Won't we need energy to reemploy them? Where will that energy come from?

Get ready for a third-world existence by design or by default.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby rogerhb » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 04:15:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'T')he Only Thing We Have To Fear Is Mindless Hope.

Hey Roger, did you refer this sentence to the last words of my previous post: After all it might be true that what we "think" we create!
??



Actually no, I was looking at the title of the topic and remembered some writing about the holocaust where people were always starting rumours that the end of the war was coming, the Americans were coming even though they all knew there wasn't really a way out.

Because they laid their hope on an outside agency they went to their deaths quietly.

I thought it was an interesting twist that hope could be a fatal factor.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby sameu » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 16:28:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'o')k just one more thing, and please correct me if I'm wrong, this Libigg's law seems to be correct for a lot of animals, limiting resource, die-off blabla

but are these animals living a luxurious life like ours? do they make city trips? do they eat fast food? do they drive to their gym with their suv's? do they heat their swimming pools and have four computers/televisions ands vcr's on stand by?

I'm guessing not.


And your point? Cut out the waste? Ok, then how high does unemployment need to go to rid ourselves of the waste? How low do wages have to go? How far down does the standard of living have to fall to achieve this? Do you volunteer to lose your job?


yes! what do people need, like you said: food, water, shelter, and of course the energy to do so
everything else is invented crap that we as human beings don't need
in many cases this crap doesn't even makes us any more happy, on the contrary


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Conservation is a self-induced recession followed by high unemployment. The consumption of "luxury" and the production of "waste" employs millions!

Conservation and capitalism do not mix. How will we deal with those that are displaced?



you're absolutely right. but I don't see why this would be an insolvable problem, these people will have their hands full with growing their own food, repairing stuff, setting up local communities, basicly doing the same as now, surviving, but in a more basic way

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow much oil do we need to stay alive? That's the true question here.



No, the question here is what is the limiting factor that will determine carrying capacity.


fine by me, I guess we agree it will be energy in the form of oil
for the coming years, after that it will be something else


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e need a lot of it to sustain our luxurious lives, and you Americans even a lot more than the rest of the world (and yes that's a blame).
Will there be a die-off, sure, of the luxury
But I'm not so sure we will all just die because of the declining oil production.

Who said we will all just die? Not me. Not Liebig's Law.


ok, glad we agree

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')So, let me ask you. If the standard of living goes down, does human mortality go up? If the access to energy goes down, does human mortality go up?

If you say no, then why does human mortality go down when the standard of living or access to energy goes up?

Have you read my scenario? It's posted in the PO Discussion forum.


I still have a lot of reading to do here, I admit

But I don't think there is any correlation between the standard of living (or access to energy) and human morality/happiness, really

Are you saying that the modern western average man stuffing himself with fastfood and anti-depressiva doing two jobs to pay of his mortage is more happy than someone in Africa (assuming he's not suffering from famine) who simply isn't aware of all this 'luxery'?
ok these are two extremes, but I can assure you there is a big grey zone in between them where people can be perfectly happy without needing several barrels of oil per day


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he energy of the sun is not accessible, 'tapable' Monte says, well yes, not to fill up your suv, or to import chinese plastic crap, or to fill up an aeroplane to fly to some holiday resort

It is not accessible in the manner and time frame that we need it. And it is here that we need it.



I'm not so sure about that, not for the current livestyle no
but I believe it will be accessible enough to survive

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd if we stop using oil for useless crap, we'll have plenty for the essential stuff (fertilizers for example, for those who don't have a garden :-D )

Ah, but what happens when the next 3 billion people descends upon us over the next fifty years? Where will their share of the energy come from? Conservation will provide for existing and future consumption needs, plus make up for the decline in oil production?



well, there won't be any next 3 billion people considering the fact that if you have your hands full with surviving, producing more people will be a very bad idea and lower your chances on survival.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
What about the people who are displaced by the lost of sales from "useless crap"? Won't we need energy to reemploy them? Where will that energy come from?

Get ready for a third-world existence by design or by default.

We can't reemploy them. Not so sure if that's such a requirement in the first place.
Third world is maybe a bit exagerated, but yes, as long as we are still alive, we'll manage. Poor people are more creative then you think.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 16:58:30

Sameu, how will you find a place to live, food to eat, etc without a job?

Without an income, I'd be in deep poopy, so I'm curious to see how you plan to do this tomorrow when you quit your job.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby Guest » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 19:33:41

I KNOW!!! FEUDALISM AND MANORISM!!!
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Unread postby rogerhb » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 19:34:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', 'I') KNOW!!! FEUDALISM AND MANORISM!!!


Yes, mind you manors! :-D
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