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No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby drgoodword » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 13:09:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('socrates1fan', 'T')he only dieoff I see in the world due to PO is in 3rd and 2nd world countries.
Not only is the US the most powerful nation in the world, but we feed a lot of the planet.


Don't underestimate the ability of a full-blown economic recession--espeically one driven by energy depletion--to affect food production and distribution.

As the recession deepens, food prices around the world will continue to soar due to peakoil-driven global scarcity. A deep recession means people will generally be able to afford less food. On top of this, sky-high food prices will result in hoarding, rationing and black market diversion.

To get an idea of how people can starve while literally in the midst of plenty, read up on the Great Ukranian Famine of 1932-33. During this period over two million farmers starved ,while working the most fertile soil in the world, due to Stalin's agro policies of the early thirties. The farmers were guarded more closely than prison convicts, and thefts of a single grain of wheat were punishable by on-the-spot executions.

Over the next ten years, America will join the world in famine. The current military and agricultural might of the U.S. will count for little in the era of Peak Oil.
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby Milret2 » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 13:27:25

Large numbers of people now depend on existence and delivery of various types of drugs and medical services. In my own case I must have thyroid replacement drugs (thyroid cancer required thyroid removal) and blood pressure drugs. I also underwent cataract operation and retinal detachment surgery in my one remaining eye, both within the last four years. Such services were asolutely needed by me to remain well and active ... but such services REQUIRE massive amounts of oil to be available. Die off will happen and it will be massive. I am just glad I have no kids and have had the opportunity to be born in the USA fifty seven years ago. Living in interesting times will, I suspect, make dying in them in the next few years just desserts;-).
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby sjn » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:01:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'O')k people. Let's be a bit fair.
Since we are on this website, we believe or at least are aware of peakoil.

IF you would have the chance to speak to the world for 20 minutes, and have a guarantee that everyone would get and understand your message, would you tell them about peak oil?

I wouldn't.

I would. Most people in the First World feel an entitlement to their current way of life. If it isn't spelt out to them the reason why it's gone scapegoats will be sought and the powerdown will be sudden and brutal.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')From all the people I have told about Peak Oil, about 99% denied it, and 1% accept it simply as a scientific fact, which has no effect on their lives.
This think this is changing, hence the reason I posted this thread. As above though, if everybody isn't moving together then those who do will be ostricised or worse. This goes as much for nations as it does for individuals, we're a social species and we don't well tolerate those who operate outside of the consensus trance. I feel we may be at or approaching a window of opportunity where the leaders could come clean of the gravity of the situation and lead to a "less severe" outcome in the medium term. Not likely to happen though, I admit.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Would you imagine the worldwide panic and chaos if this would be told by GW Bush and other trusted sources?
Can you imagine the worldwide panic and chaos if we hit the wall at full throttle and there's mass famine and pandemic and all our remaining resources have been spent on a combination of business as usual and pork barrel projects that gave us a negative energy return?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')We can't afford that.

We have to slowly spoonfeed this to people.
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:06:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'w')e're a social species and we don't well tolerate those who operate outside of the consensus trance.


Really? Nobody has ever made a move to prevent me from living as I choose.

I often run across people on boards who say "'They' will stop you if you try to live differently!" I consider this a lame cop-out and excuse for not doing anything. :x
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby mrobert » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:13:10

@sjn: What I was merely trying to say, is that it has to be told in a manner that would avoid a potential large-scale panic. Don't imagine that if you comfront 7 billion people with a HUGE issue, they will just sit down and start thinking about changes.

At least 75% will start to blame "others" for being here, and being forced to change the way we live.

Can you hear statements like:
"It's those damn [insert local politicos here] that didn't warn use before. They should have invested in alternatives, blah blah blah".

Let me give you a real life example.
A friend takes out a huge loan to start a business in an area where he has NO experience. I have about 6 years.
I tried telling him very nicely : Dude, thowing in a large amount of money won't speed things up or make them better. Start lower and nicely build your way up. Use financing when needed to expand the business and you have a 99% guarantee that it will be usefull. I went to the extent of giving him a full scale consulting, based on my past experience, down to every detail of the business. Something other would have charged for.

His answer: Don't teach me how to do business, and other arrogant statements.

The result? Absolutely NOT A SINGLE CUSTOMER OR SALE, and ended up with a huge debt. He will be spending the next few years, paying the debt for a huge mistake. It's in the range of a few tens of thousands of dollars.

People are funny :)
I suggest you rent or buy the DVD, with Stephen Hawking's : The Mist movie. Contrary to believes, it's NOT A HORROR movie. It's about what people to, when the issue is under their nose.
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby sjn » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:13:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'w')e're a social species and we don't well tolerate those who operate outside of the consensus trance.


Really? Nobody has ever made a move to prevent me from living as I choose.

I often run across people on boards who say "'They' will stop you if you try to live differently!" I consider this a lame cop-out and excuse for not doing anything. :x
No offence Ludi, but in a time of plenty, people are more liberal and tolerant. I live my life differently, but it certainly isn't encoraged by the State here.
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby mrobert » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:15:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'w')e're a social species and we don't well tolerate those who operate outside of the consensus trance.


Really? Nobody has ever made a move to prevent me from living as I choose.

I often run across people on boards who say "'They' will stop you if you try to live differently!" I consider this a lame cop-out and excuse for not doing anything. :x


Right on that.
I am living in a huge city with a nice job at my software development company. However, I am starting to build a nice house, in an area close to a city (at my parents), yet in an area that has no value. It's a small quiet village on a road that leads to nowhere.
capitalism *is* fun | crude oil price

http://www.exosyphen.com/
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:16:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', ' ')I live my life differently, but it certainly isn't encoraged by the State here.


So you require not only tolerance but actual encouragement? Why should we expect behavior outside the status quo to be encouraged by the State?
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby sjn » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:18:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '
')Let me give you a real life example.
A friend takes out a huge loan to start a business in an area where he has NO experience. I have about 6 years.
I tried telling him very nicely : Dude, thowing in a large amount of money won't speed things up or make them better. Start lower and nicely build your way up. Use financing when needed to expand the business and you have a 99% guarantee that it will be usefull. I went to the extent of giving him a full scale consulting, based on my past experience, down to every detail of the business. Something other would have charged for.

His answer: Don't teach me how to do business, and other arrogant statements.

The result? Absolutely NOT A SINGLE CUSTOMER OR SALE, and ended up with a huge debt. He will be spending the next few years, paying the debt for a huge mistake. It's in the range of a few tens of thousands of dollars.
Who did he blame? Would he have blamed you if you had withheld advice?
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby sjn » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:22:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', ' ')I live my life differently, but it certainly isn't encoraged by the State here.


So you require not only tolerance but actual encouragement? Why should we expect behavior outside the status quo to be encouraged by the State?
I was being facetious, though frankly I think it would be a healthy development. :)
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:25:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'I') was being facetious, though frankly I think it would be a healthy development. :)


That would be great, but we can't realistically expect it. If people are to change, there need to be people modeling that change so others can see and learn the advantages to another way to do things. We need to try to make it seem not only pragmatically necessary but also appealing - a huge challenge, I admit! But I have absolutely no faith in the State to do this for us, none whatsoever. And I refuse to let that get in my way of doing all I can to change to the best of my ability and help others do so as well, in my own small way.
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby MrBean » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:32:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '
')IF you would have the chance to speak to the world for 20 minutes, and have a guarantee that everyone would get and understand your message, would you tell them about peak oil?


"Cough, cough. Hello. Now, what I'm going to tell you about Peak Oil, Peak Evertything and Peak Stupid Greed migh make you want to panic and start looting all the supermarkets, but... OOPS!!!"
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby sjn » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:37:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '
')IF you would have the chance to speak to the world for 20 minutes, and have a guarantee that everyone would get and understand your message, would you tell them about peak oil?


"Cough, cough. Hello. Now, what I'm going to tell you about Peak Oil, Peak Evertything and Peak Stupid Greed migh make you want to panic and start looting all the supermarkets, but... OOPS!!!"
Are you volunteering? :lol:
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 14:39:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'I')'ve noticed recently people are far more receptive to the idea of Peak Oil.
My avatar tells the story of such reception. But I wouldn't go as fas as stating "no longer any resistance." I still know more people that doesn't even know what PO is, than the ones that do.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('socrates1fan', 'T')o a large degree people are starting to accept that oil is finite.
We always knew it was finite. We didn't know exactly when it was going to end. We still don't. These price hikes have little to do with the supply or regulatory side, rather more with the demand side.
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby sjn » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 15:11:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'I')'ve noticed recently people are far more receptive to the idea of Peak Oil.
My avatar tells the story of such reception. But I wouldn't go as fas as stating "no longer any resistance." I still know more people that doesn't even know what PO is, than the ones that do.[/.quote]
No, of course there will always be resistance to ideas that challenge the dominant paradigm, but the strain caused by the incessant price rises and news reports about stagnant supply and increasing demand are opening up cracks that allow the truth to seep in.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('socrates1fan', 'T')o a large degree people are starting to accept that oil is finite.
We always knew it was finite. We didn't know exactly when it was going to end. We still don't. These price hikes have little to do with the supply or regulatory side, rather more with the demand side.

Actually, most people never contemplated the finiteness of any of our base resources. They simply assume that tomorrow will be much like today, only more, and better. You are free to believe that prices are unrelated to supply constraints but those looking to have their demand fulfilled may disagree with you.
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby muon » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 15:32:53

I haven't tried talking to anyone in real life, just trying to be supportive of lower energy type things that anyone comes up with. Online I've noticed a lot of opposition...

One person said it's the oil companies fleecing people, there's loads of oil, it gets made in the earth and the oil fields refill themselves. Others who were more informed about oil said that the refineries weren't working at full capacity (USA) due to not enough demand, and that Saudi has lots of wells capped (whatever the right terminology is) and they could uncap those if it was a supply/demand issue. That was actually good because they were open to discussion, so I asked them if they knew the year of peak oil discoveries and they were surprised at the answer. I was also able to point someone in the direction of numbers of how much more oil the USA uses than other countries, they didn't believe me but I think they did want to look it up to see if I was right or not.

I read an oil thread in a forum yesterday and someone said that the Bakken formation has loads of oil in it, but they're not drilling there yet. In response someone else said yes, there's loads of oil shale too! Someone else said that they read oil is made deep in the earth from helium and moves upwards to where we find it, so we'll never run out, they even provided a link to a website saying this.
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby timbo » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 15:44:42

But I still get some resistance on it meaning Global War. I don't want a war but if history is anything to go by it will happen. My only uncertainity is how many nukes get traded.
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby socrates1fan » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 16:10:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('socrates1fan', 'T')o a large degree people are starting to accept that oil is finite.
We always knew it was finite. We didn't know exactly when it was going to end. We still don't. These price hikes have little to do with the supply or regulatory side, rather more with the demand side.


Indeed most people know it is finite.
If you ask them if they believe it is a never ending source than they will tell you no.
But its the same with death. People take it for granted that they will be alive tomorrow. If you ask them if they think they will live forever they will tell you no.
same thing.
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby socrates1fan » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 16:13:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timbo', 'B')ut I still get some resistance on it meaning Global War. I don't want a war but if history is anything to go by it will happen. My only uncertainity is how many nukes get traded.


I don't think we have to worry about Nukes.
People with nukes realize if they attack other countries with nukes that country will try and take them down with them.
-_-
No one will nuke the other(or at least the countries with nukes) due to their own self-interests.
I don't think people have nukes for war as much as they do to use it as black mail or power.
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Re: No longer any resistance to the Peak Oil news?

Unread postby mrobert » Sun 29 Jun 2008, 16:38:30

@sjn: He did partially blame me. He contracted me to design the website. He was building an online store.

You don't have to work in the industry, to know that if you want to sell something online on a website, you have to advertise and promote it, so that people visit it and eventually buy something.

He claimed that if the site would have been done "right", people would have simply stumbled upon it and the business would have went perfectly.

Also, he claimed that I overcharged him, when I negotiated the price in a friendly maner, like this:
Me: What is your best price offer for this, from other companies?
Him: X dollars
Me: Ok, will charge you around 60% of your cheapest offer. 40% discount for being friends.
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