Yeah, the electronics aren't coming down so fast, the panels are already relatively cheap and LiFePo have come down a lot. But just because there is lots of desert doesn't mean there will be lots of projects overnight. In the Bakken there weren't pipelines to take away the oil so they sent it out on trains, can't do that with electricity.The grid is feeble already, it isn't going to be ready for massive new PV farms in 2 years.
In fact, Overwhelmed by solar projects, the nation’s largest grid operator seeks a two-year pause on approvals. And that's in the East.
CA was thinking of a connection charge for small RE but they have a big backlash so that might not be a thing. Surprisingly Missouri has net metering and in the SW pretty good insolation—if we stay here I'd probably start with a grid tie and build storage capacity over time as cost comes down. If you can do that with LiFePo, I haven't found a definitive answer to that yet. The advantage aside from catching any price decline, is when they croak one at a time you don't need a mortgage to replace a whole bank.
PeakOil is You
Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change
Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change
by Pops » Sun 13 Feb 2022, 10:21:44
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-
Pops - Elite
- Posts: 19746
- Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change
by evilgenius » Wed 16 Feb 2022, 07:21:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'Y')ou can look at the Ukraine, and Putin's threat to invade it, and tell that peak oil is real. But you can also tell that it is on the back burner.
If you want to argue Peak Natural Gas perhaps, but wars that aren't even wars yet are no more peak oil derived than the war in Vietnam, Russia's war against Chechnya, Gulf War 1 or 2, the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan or America's abandonment of it in 2021.
They used to call it the Grand Game, or the Great Game. It was what statesmen and aristocrats did in the run up to World War I, and have been doing since. It's as strategic as the Cold War, which is another war you could make the same criticisms of, looking for a plot.
I don't think the people who think this way for the US are ignoring the situation with oil. It does look like the situation is not dire, like it may have looked in 2006, when there were fewer alternatives. We can see an electric future, now. It even has excellent 4WD!
Baring the worst sort of luck, the peak can come and go and the country won't face the same sort of strategic peril it may have under the old way of thinking about these things.
-
evilgenius - Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 3730
- Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
- Location: Stopped at the Border.
Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change
by AdamB » Wed 16 Feb 2022, 10:30:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')They used to call it the Grand Game, or the Great Game. It was what statesmen and aristocrats did in the run up to World War I, and have been doing since. It's as strategic as the Cold War, which is another war you could make the same criticisms of, looking for a plot.
I don't think the people who think this way for the US are ignoring the situation with oil. It does look like the situation is not dire, like it may have looked in 2006, when there were fewer alternatives. We can see an electric future, now. It even has excellent 4WD!
')They used to call it the Grand Game, or the Great Game. It was what statesmen and aristocrats did in the run up to World War I, and have been doing since. It's as strategic as the Cold War, which is another war you could make the same criticisms of, looking for a plot.
I don't think the people who think this way for the US are ignoring the situation with oil. It does look like the situation is not dire, like it may have looked in 2006, when there were fewer alternatives. We can see an electric future, now. It even has excellent 4WD!
Those of us around during the 1970's are quite familiar with The Great Game, as you have described it (reasonably well I might add). It was far more serious then and had a name, The Carter Doctrine. The basics of it are probably no different than they are today, other than it seems far away in a world where the US is the world's largest producer of both oil and gas, and exporter of LNG. Those things will one day come to an end, and we'll be back right where we were 45 years ago. The good news being we've got more time now than we thought we did back then, and EVs are really a thing, rather than homebuilt toys of hobbyists. It doesn't hurt sitting right beside the world's largest accumulation of oil all under the control of a friendly foreign power though, in the long run.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
-
AdamB - Volunteer
- Posts: 11018
- Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change
by evilgenius » Sun 20 Feb 2022, 11:21:22
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')They used to call it the Grand Game, or the Great Game. It was what statesmen and aristocrats did in the run up to World War I, and have been doing since. It's as strategic as the Cold War, which is another war you could make the same criticisms of, looking for a plot.
I don't think the people who think this way for the US are ignoring the situation with oil. It does look like the situation is not dire, like it may have looked in 2006, when there were fewer alternatives. We can see an electric future, now. It even has excellent 4WD!
')They used to call it the Grand Game, or the Great Game. It was what statesmen and aristocrats did in the run up to World War I, and have been doing since. It's as strategic as the Cold War, which is another war you could make the same criticisms of, looking for a plot.
I don't think the people who think this way for the US are ignoring the situation with oil. It does look like the situation is not dire, like it may have looked in 2006, when there were fewer alternatives. We can see an electric future, now. It even has excellent 4WD!
Those of us around during the 1970's are quite familiar with The Great Game, as you have described it (reasonably well I might add). It was far more serious then and had a name, The Carter Doctrine. The basics of it are probably no different than they are today, other than it seems far away in a world where the US is the world's largest producer of both oil and gas, and exporter of LNG. Those things will one day come to an end, and we'll be back right where we were 45 years ago. The good news being we've got more time now than we thought we did back then, and EVs are really a thing, rather than homebuilt toys of hobbyists. It doesn't hurt sitting right beside the world's largest accumulation of oil all under the control of a friendly foreign power though, in the long run.
I started thinking that way when I read an article in Foreign Affairs years ago, about how the Caspian Sea region was a disaster for a certain kind of thinking. The Caspian had not come in. The reserves were not going to be huge, like Iran or Iraq. A lot of geopolitics was waiting to see if they would.
But, then, there are already proven reserves in that same area, and they are strategic. It's just that they belong to Russia. If the electric future isn't going to work, I think that sort of strategic thinking would still apply. I reckon Putin is trying to use the lacunae that has developed in the aftermath of the sea change in energy to get some guarantees from the West.
I wonder if the West realizes that they can pretty much give him whatever he wants? In ten years Russia will have a lot of oil and gas, and no robots and a rotten electrical infrastructure. It'll be hard to compete against even Mongolia with no robots. Imagine the human suffering. It will literally take place on a Russian scale. We know they have the net, though. They have proven they can hack. They haven't proven they can do any good, except toward the kleptocrats.
It will take a lot more economic freedom for the sort of overall freedom that robots can bring to get to your average Russian. What to do about the weak? Stringing them along is not a good tactic when change is taking place so fast. They are only setting themselves up to see the West as carpet baggers, or robber barons.
-
evilgenius - Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 3730
- Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
- Location: Stopped at the Border.
