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IT'S REAL???

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.
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IT'S REAL???

Unread postby MR_SHERRILL » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 15:29:04

I am shocked... Are you guys saying what I think you are saying on this site. The world is about to blow up around us????
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby bartholland » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 15:36:32

Sorry, that it's this board that had to bring the message....

I sometimes wonder if I'm better of knowing :cry:
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 15:39:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MR_SHERRILL', 'I') am shocked... Are you guys saying what I think you are saying on this site. The world is about to blow up around us????

We are saying that a serious liquid fuel crunch is about to hit us. Nothing more and nothing else. Some people use this , to promote their apocalyptic vision of the world. Keep reading ...., get out of debt, educate yourself, do not mess up your brain.
IF you drive a SUV ... well you know now that it was a bad "investment"
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby killJOY » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 16:01:57

I think "implode" is a better expression than "blow up."

As for that "about to": that's the tricky part.

No one knows when the peak will be exactly, nor how steep the decline will be afterward, nor how people will react. I suspect not well.

Couldn't ya frow up?
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby Cynus » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 16:03:36

That red pill leaves a bitter aftertaste, don't it? Here's some cool-aid to help wash it down.
Last edited by Cynus on Sat 07 Jan 2006, 16:09:36, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby AmericanEmpire » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 16:04:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') sometimes wonder if I'm better of knowing


Sometimes I wonder too. Life is never the same once you are a peak oiler.

But I wouldn't have it any other way. Just think how shocking its gonna be to people who don't know about or understand peak oil.
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby Raxozanne » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 16:06:49

Sorry to be a spoil sport, but wasn't it the red pill that lead [Neo] to the truth?
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby aldente » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 17:13:57

Mr.Sherill,

The topic nature is not hard to grasp and as Energyspin pointed out correctly all that we recognize here is that we very likely are facing a liquid fuel supply crisis scheduled to setting in shortly.

The problematic psychological aspect that comes with the realisation of the enormous dependency on our all so beloved hydrocarbons of which the access to we take for granted as much as our birth right is that the depletion rate will be shrinking permanently after the peak of production has been passed. Simple isn't it?!

Which would explain that the subject matter is of absolute unheard proportions, not managable and not comparable to any problems of the past and for that reason very difficult to communicate probably both before and after the fact. That some individuals react with the "doom and gloom" notion is nothing but one form to deal with a reality that is larger than anything else ever seen, since no one is in the position to turn back the clock and to reverse the technical achievments, side effects - the now onsetting global warming process notably- and population growth that happened as a direct result of the discovery of these all so infamous liquid hydrocarbon molecules.

Also stunning that there seems to be hardly any indicator that would allow the larger public to realize how sudden a supply shortage will change the overall socio-economic dynamics not of just a nation but essentially the world now which in return makes the communication of what PeakOil is so difficult.

It is unlikely that Peak Oil will ever be communicated on a larger scale and recognized and understood as the underlaying catalyst of the events to come. Chances are way higher that finger pointing will start to occur: Islam, religion, the Russians, the Chinese, you name it, and there is speculation that out of regional resource wars "the" final super war could erupt. Others talk of a gradual and less spectacular however just as devastating die-off of the human race.

Pretty dark scenarios and again, as Energyspin already warned you, don't get succered in these all to negative mindsets. This forum seems to me a mental practice and preparation ground of how to deal with a future that neither of us has a recipe or plan as to how to deal with.
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby malcomatic_51 » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 18:03:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MR_SHERRILL', 'I') am shocked... Are you guys saying what I think you are saying on this site. The world is about to blow up around us????


It's interesting isn't it? But look on the bright side; you are privy to knowledge that not 1% of the Fatted Masses out there have a clue about.

That gives you a chance to make wise decisions ahead of the game. For instance, you might consider buying some gold and silver.

Like you, I was deeply affected by the realisation of Peak Oil, as much as anything because, as an engineer employed in the energy sector, it astounded me that the inevitability of PO has never spread even within specialist circles.

I am sceptical that the worst-case scenarios of advanced societies collapsing will come to pass. The strongest societies will survive and those now struggling will be the shock absorbers that take the impact. It is fair to expect a prolonged period of economic privation in the industrialised societies, probably as deep as the Great Depression and probably lasting longer. Will we come through it, or will there be a long progression of decline into petty states struggling along amid the technical heirlooms of the past that nobody can remember how to build any longer? I don't know. It boils down to the quality of the leadership that emerges; Hitler versus Roosevelt.

Save. Stay out of debt, clear all debt you now have. It probably is worth considering getting a firearm and secreting it away for trouble. I would advise you get exposure to gold and silver, but do your own research. Learn to ride a bicycle competently, it will give you the edge on folk who think it's "too dangerous" and therefore don't try to learn. Keep in touch with oil developments.
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby Wildwell » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 18:25:45

Some of this information is not very good news. On the other hand the world always has had huge problems. And this one, like some of the others might be solvable. Fundamentally it is tied with monetary systems, consumption, demand, economics, geopolitics, the human condition.

Keep positive, stay objective, research as much as possible from as many sources and look for a win-win. Knowledge is power, but no single person will able to solve it, use the knowledge to think and plan if things start to go bad. You will not find any black and white answers, nor will you find silver bullet solutions or political mechanisms.

Here are a few primer articles:

http://www.vermontguardian.com/local/012006/PlanB.shtml

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/615

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/news/605

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/lectures/461

www.peakoil.net
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby bob_loblaw » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 18:47:33

only a few months in myself, and I feel so late to the party.

Give it time for the reality of it all to sink in.

I'm trying to sort out how to present all of it to my family.
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 19:19:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MR_SHERRILL', 'I') am shocked... Are you guys saying what I think you are saying on this site. The world is about to blow up around us????

We are saying that a serious liquid fuel crunch is about to hit us. Nothing more and nothing else.


Nothing more? Nothing else?

Are you to have us believe the war in oil-rich Iraq, the war on terror which happens to be centered where most of the world's oil is, the rash of bankruptcies in the highly oil dependent airline industry, potential bankruptcies for highly oil dependent companies like Ford and GM, the consolidation trends in the oil industry etc . . . have nothing to do with this "liquid fuel crunch"?

This is going to affect every aspect of our lives and, in fact, is already beginning to if you look at the trends of the last five years.

Best,

Matt
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby gt1370a » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 20:11:07

Since Matt didn't do it, Mr Sherrill I recommend you check out Life After the Oil Crash.
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby ubercynicmeister » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 20:37:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MR_SHERRILL', 'I') am shocked... Are you guys saying what I think you are saying on this site. The world is about to blow up around us????


UH, Mr Sherril...Um, no-one's saying the "world's gonna blow up"...in fact, "the world's gonna shut down" might be closer to the message here.

Firstly: this is Peak Oil. It need not become Peak Energy, but, unfortunately, the run to convert to some "other" type of energy source (as yet undiscovered, perhaps) has been left too, too late. For example, the time to do that research on Nuclear fusion was in the 1970's. Only now are they re-starting an effort that was left languish for 30 years. I've said it before, I'll say it again: I cannot pick which technology had the least research done on it in modern times: Nuclear Fusion or Steam Locomotives.

Secondly: Assuming that Peak Oil does become Peak Energy (the likely outcome, right now - but let's give some latitude, here - we might possibly juuuust avoid it) then the modern world probably won't be destroyed by the wars that are fondly imagined. No Terminator "Judgement Day" style of apocalypse, if you follow me. More like the old saying "Humanity will end with a whimper, not a bang".

Thirdly: as Matt Savinar said (Love your book, Matt!) the problem is not so much lack-of-ideas, the problem is lack of time to implement those ideas. And instead of getting together, realising that we're all in the same oil-fuelled boat and that it's headed towards Niagara Falls just as the fuel begins to look like it's not gunna last the distance, we are spending our time idling it away, or going off to wars we neither needed nor were based on truth, or introducing yet more energy-consuming technology, or ignoring the problem, or being distracted by stories from the clueless media about Jennifer Lopez and her latest body piercings (or how Angelina Jolie is supposed to be having sex with her brother - betcha THAT remarks gets more attention & comments than anything else I've ever written).

Therein lies the crux of the problem. We can't solve what we ignore. At some point (let's calls it Peak Oil) there comes a time when one simply has no lead-up time to effectively put in the effort to fix the problem. Or even effect a partial solution.

This can be expressed by the following example: a young apprectice lawyer (I'm picking on you, Matt) has some very rich parents and like most rich kids is a complete brat, prefering to spend every minute of the day sleeping and every minute of the night either partying, doing drugs or having sex. Sometimes all three at once. She (let's not be sexist here - females can be lawyers, too!) is getting $20,000 per month from her rich parents as an allowance.

Then comes the day of the Final Exams. A few hours before, the young brat awakes and realises she's done NO study, whatsoever...and there's no time left to study. And her parents are getting angrier and angrier with her, and it looks like they could "cut her off" or at least drop her allowance to only $10,000 per month. Because of all of her drug-taking, she's racked up lotsa debt and needs at least $20,000 per month to pay it all off. And these drug-lords are the Russian Mafia, and they'll shoot first and ask questions later.

So what happens?

We're all now in the same boat (pardon the pun) as that apprentice lawyer - we're facing a hurdle we've (collectively) made no effort to learn about it, no effort to "size up", no preparation to surmount and undertaken no training to attempt to do so.

Under such a circumstance, I'm predicting that the apprentice lawyer will fail her final exams. I'm predicting that humanity will also fail it's "energy exam". Not because we "can't" do it, but because we've frittered away every opportunity that we've been handed.

Solutions to Peak Oil exist. The time to implement them may NOT exist. Therein lies the entire cause of the dilemma at these boards: do we have enough time?

It is, In My Humble Opinion, just as "legitimate" to say 'yes, we have the time' as it is to say 'no, we do not.' Unfortunately, there's only one way to find out, and it's likely to be rather nasty in it's consequences if we get things wrong.
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby DigitalCubano » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 21:12:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gt1370a', 'S')ince Matt didn't do it, Mr Sherrill I recommend you check out Life After the Oil Crash.


And in the spirit of honest debate and objective analysis I reccommend that you check out a very reasonable retort to much of Matt's analysis here as well as the thread that cropped up in response here. I believe Matt's official response can be found here. I also think it would be instructive to peruse a recent thread concerning Matt's take on the nuclear energy option here. I believe that the content within this thread will help you understand some of the issues that some folks have with Matt's analyses and conclusions.

I think that Energy Spin's opinion was spot-on and I my advice to you would be to apply a great deal of scrutiny to much of what you read in some of the more dystopic sources before you draw any conclusions. You should be especially wary of the ubiquity of dubious inference to support various outlandish claims within these sources.
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby killJOY » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 22:11:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou should be especially wary of the ubiquity of dubious inference to support various outlandish claims within these sources.


And in addition-- as the above quote demonstrates--beware of people who speak in blowsy abstractions instead of figures.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby Wildwell » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 22:55:34

Hmn, hands up who is looking for some objectivity? I am, since the beginning.

As wonderful and informative as the internet is, it’s given a platform to people with an axe to grind, people who pretend to be experts on things, people with an agenda or certain political point of view. I have seen many sites that are just complete works of fiction, at least if you are competent to recognise the fact.

Is peak oil real and are well qualified people concerned about it? Yes.

Do we have any idea of real oil reserves? No

What is the response of economists?

‘Prices will rise and resources that were not profitable to extract beforehand are now profitable to the market’, which is fairly plausible and logical. But the one I find the most irritating is ‘Prices will rise and alternatives will become available’. Which could possibly be the case but?

a) Is an article of faith and belief that humans can solve all problems.
b) Assumes governments won’t interfere with the markets
c) Assumes scalability, technical perfection, affordability, the capital and manpower and resources are available (and affordable) and people want to buy the alternatives. For example, solar panels are available now, but most people would rather spend the money on a vacation by plane to the other side of the world.
d) Fails to take into account oil is very inelastic.
e) Fails to take into account that oil is not an ordinary commodity, but one which powers the majority of transportation, without which we wouldn’t have an advanced civilisation.
f) Ignores the geopolitical realities. Such as Russia, Iran or Venezuela etc pulling the plug at a strategically opportunistic moment and the location of the remaining resource.
g) Assumes other resources won’t become scarce (Steel, copper, food, water, intellectual capital)


I share some concerns with LATOC, while a well thought out and logical site it makes certain assumptions too. Peak Oil is mainly a liquid fuels crisis; nevertheless it may be a real test for the markets and the human response to behave sensibly when the markets are not in their favour. Keep reading and watching.

Are there any real objective views of Peak oil? No, there are few good reports but the world economy is far to complex to predict macroeconomic response nation-by-nation. Should we be concerned? Yes. The market has failed to deal with Climate change because it’s an externality and affordable alternatives aren’t readily available. This is despite many years of warnings (based on a few uncertain facts, similar to oil reserves), the most affluence the world has ever known and because they are myopic, manipulated and based upon the ideas of a few social thinkers, not natural limits, practicality or the imperfect hard-wired human.
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby Guest » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 23:16:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou should be especially wary of the ubiquity of dubious inference to support various outlandish claims within these sources.


And in addition-- as the above quote demonstrates--beware of people who speak in blowsy abstractions instead of figures.


Beware, also, of people who speak in figures but don't look at what is actually happening in front of them in the real world.

The nuclear thread is an excellent example. Plenty of people with lots of figures but guess what? It ain't going to happen in real life. Rearranging massive parts of an incredibly leveraged economy run by corrupt insiders and their incompetent cronies during an unprecendented crisis isn't as simple as moving legos - or numbers on the back of an envelope - around.

Look at the coporate-government reaction to Katrina, an event which we were able to watch from space ahead and predict with relative accuracy ahead of time! On paper, things should have been maybe 10% as big a disaster as it was/is. But numerical figures and theories on paper ain't the real world.

Best,

Matt
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Re: IT'S REAL???

Unread postby Guest » Sat 07 Jan 2006, 23:36:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gt1370a', 'S')ince Matt didn't do it, Mr Sherrill I recommend you check out Life After the Oil Crash.


And in the spirit of honest debate and objective analysis I reccommend that you check out a very reasonable retort to much of Matt's analysis here as well as the thread that cropped up in response here. II my advice to you would be to apply a great deal of scrutiny to much of what you read in some of the more dystopic sources before you draw any conclusions. You should be especially wary of the ubiquity of dubious inference to support various outlandish claims within these sources.


I would advise you to apply an even greater deal of scrutiny to much of what you read from the more utopic sources.

These are the same people who would have told you, "The US will NEVER occupy Iraq. Look at these numbers: You see, if the US invades and occupies Iraq it will have access to X amount at Y price. The cost of the invasion will be A, the occupation B, blah, blah, blah . . . It would be much more profitable to do D (D being a peacefull, rational course of action). Anybody who says the US will invade to control oil is just saying that to support an anti-American political agenda or apocalyptic/catastrophist mindset. They're obviously not looking at the figures."

Best,

Matt
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