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Interview with Jay Hanson

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Unread postby Ayoob » Thu 07 May 2009, 17:40:55

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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Revi » Thu 07 May 2009, 21:28:24

That was a great interview! I haven't heard anything from him in years.

Die off was the site that got me into peak oil back in the late 90's.

It's still as scary as ever, but

Now I am more resigned to the outcome.
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Narz » Thu 07 May 2009, 21:39:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow I am more resigned to the outcome.
That's Expletive deleted..

Jay Hanson is a know-nothing who thinks he knows something. Also, his wesbsite is terrible.
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 07 May 2009, 22:11:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')t's still as scary as ever, but Now I am more resigned to the outcome.
I think a good attitude is to be ready for whatever might happen. If by some miracle we escape die-off by changing our behavior and reducing our population voluntarily (or by "escaping to the stars"), we can breathe a sigh of relief.

And by "ready" I mainly mean spiritually/mentally ready, not necessarily physically ready to fight off zombies, etc. :)
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby dunewalker » Thu 07 May 2009, 22:27:46

Jay Hanson has been one of the great critical thinkers of our time, a seminal contribution to the discussion of critical issues surrounding the global peaking of cheap energy. Personalities such as Jason Bradford are currently carrying the torch of problem solving.
"Wilderness is another civilization apart from our own." - H.D. Thoreau
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Grautr » Fri 08 May 2009, 04:48:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'w')hat's wrong with him? Other than his message.

A lot of people complain about Jay saying that as soon as you are in disagreement with him he tells you; "Look I have put x amount of time into studying this subject and you havént" and then dismissing their argument.

I hear this complaint about him often. I personaly am in total agreement with his predictions though.
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Schmuto » Fri 08 May 2009, 10:18:22

Guy is brilliant. I like the way he integrates biology into the discussion.

I agree with everything he said, and particularly with:
1. The impact of self-deception.
2. The fact that today's "renewables" are not renewable, and that things like "wind" and "solar" are red herrings because they require huge energy and material inputs.

Thanks for the post.
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Narz » Fri 08 May 2009, 17:45:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'w')hat's wrong him? Other than his message.

See Revi's response. That's what he does to otherwise intelligent people. He's depressing & a lazy thinker. Typical doomsterbater. Dataset A says human beings currently live in an unsustainable way therefore we're all gonna start dying off starting in 1998 as shown by this GIF created by my 13-year old nephew.

Typical religious mindstate*, easily recognizable by the fact that his opinions have not changed or evolved since he converted.

* select what you want to believe in, then find data to support that as opposed to looking at the data & analyzing it objectively.

The main thing about the guy I dislike is that his message is this : "You're as dumb as yeast, give up.". If people like that all put their money where there mouth was and killed themselves the world would be a much better place.

Guys like this are devoid of courage, honor & respect for life though. They'll claim we're all FUBAR but they'll live it up "cause we're fucked anyway", with maybe a secret stash to try to ride out the hordes. No hope, no striving to make the world better, just doomsterbation, because, in the end, they all hate the world & life as we know it anyway & it's not their fault so why should they care for anyone but themselves.

He's a lazy thinker, as Grautr says, he doesn't back up his arguments but expects you to take his incredible leaps of logic on faith. Alex Jones is also like that. "Look at this data-set! Therefore my theory is true!"
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Schmuto » Fri 08 May 2009, 19:20:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'G')uys like this are devoid of courage, honor & respect for life though. They'll claim we're all FUBAR but they'll live it up "cause we're fucked anyway", with maybe a secret stash to try to ride out the hordes. No hope, no striving to make the world better, just doomsterbation, because, in the end, they all hate the world & life as we know it anyway & it's not their fault so why should they care for anyone but themselves.He's a lazy thinker . . .
I disagree. It's lazy of you to call him lazy. What you really don't like about him is the fact that he's resigned to our fate, as he sees it.

That is, he believes that there's nothing we can do - human beings are so G--d d---ed stupid they're going to run the bus off the cliff no matter what. That's the part you don't like. So you take that and you turn it into, 'he's a lazy thinker.'

You say he hasn't evolved? Has it occurred to you that he got it close to correct with his early analysis? The shark hasn't outwardly evolved in a few hundred million years either.

So what? In the end, I agree with his premise, and you do not.

His premise is that we're screwed because people intentionally deceive themselves so they can be better liars, and, because that's hardwired into us, we have no chance of overcoming it during the short timeline we're working with right now. A corrolary to that is that people don't want to think about how bad things can get because it's against their nature.

In fact, if you think about it, you're nothing more than one of the people who doesn't want to face the awful facts we're facing.

You don't like him because what he says to you is - "you're refusing to face the facts, and that's why you believe what you believe."

I agree with him. Anybody who thinks we're getting through the next 90 years without a huge % of the population dying is, in my opinion, not willing or able to deal with the raw data.

He says 90%. I'd go 66% or more. Without oil, it's chaos. The deatheaters come soon.
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 08 May 2009, 19:50:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', ' ')because that's hardwired into us, we have no chance of overcoming it during the short timeline we're working with right now.
Not necessarily "hardwired." If it were "hardwired" there would be no examples of people who saw the problems and dealt with them in an effective way.

One example is the island of Tikopia. The Tikopians came to their small island and noticed it was small. They realized they would overpopulate and destroy it if they didn't behave differently. So they organized their culture to limit their population. They used several methods, one of which was heroic but suicidal ocean voyages by their young men, another infanticide. (not promoting infanticide mind you, just pointing out it was a population control method they had at their disposal).

Jared Diamond writes about the Tikopians in "Collapse."

Running headlong into societal collapse may be as much, or more, cultural as it is "hardwired." There are many more examples of peoples who deliberately limited their populations because their survival depended on remaining within the resources of their territory.

It may be quite difficult or impossible to change our cultural assumptions about "more just over the next hill," which we've believed in for thousands of years, in time to avoid painful collapse.
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Narz » Fri 08 May 2009, 23:12:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', 'I')n fact, if you think about it, you're nothing more than one of the people who doesn't want to face the awful facts we're facing.

:lol: Yeah, snappy comeback. Is that the only comeback doomers are capable of?

"Uhh, I'm not wrong, yous in denial :| "

Evolved like a shark, that's cute.
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Schmuto » Sat 09 May 2009, 00:27:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', 'I')n fact, if you think about it, you're nothing more than one of the people who doesn't want to face the awful facts we're facing.
:lol: Yeah, snappy comeback. Is that the only comeback doomers are capable of? "Uhh, I'm not wrong, yous in denial :| "
Evolved like a shark, that's cute.
It's not a question of capacity.

If somebody kept trying to tell you that 2+2 was 3, what would you tell them if not, "2+2 is, in fact, 4?"
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Grautr » Sat 09 May 2009, 09:38:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', 'W')hat you really don't like about him is the fact that he's resigned to our fate, as he sees it.
I dont think he is resigned to our fate. He has a new group set up where they are debating what would be the best form of government for future generations. That doesnt sound like giving up to me.

He is, I find, quite often misunderstood. I've even seen him accused of being a facist just because of the name of his website.
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Schmuto » Sat 09 May 2009, 15:33:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grautr', 'I') dont think he is resigned to our fate. He has a new group set up where they are debating what would be the best form of government for future generations. That doesnt sound like giving up to me.
He is, I find, quite often misunderstood. I've even seen him accused of being a facist just because of the name of his website.
Wait wait wait wait wait. I didn't say, "giving up." You said it. I said, "resigned to our fate."

Show me where he now doesn't believe there is no way to avert 90% ish death toll world wide and you're right.

But talking about what the future govt. will look like is simply planning for what happens after the crash, not changing his mind on the crash itself.
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Narz » Sat 09 May 2009, 17:52:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', 'I')t's not a question of capacity. If somebody kept trying to tell you that 2+2 was 3, what would you tell them if not, "2+2 is, in fact, 4?"
If only life were so simple as addition & subtraction.

I am in agreement sustainability much be reached, I'm not hubristic enough to know the detail & timelines of how we're going to get there.
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Ben » Sun 07 Jun 2009, 08:57:05

I have to say the more I realize that Jay Hanson is human, the more disappointed I become. :-D I always had the image of him being some perfectly logical being, almost machine-like. To hear his voice is weird.

Actually it was an interview of his I read a while back, on The Oil Drum I believe, where the interviewer asked if he was going the survivalist route, or what was he doing to plan for the peak? And my interpretation of his answer was he basically wasn't really doing anything. And it occurred to me that really I wasn't doing much either. Between that and everything else going on in the world it was at that point that I decided to actually start preparing, for real.

I did feel some disappointment to hear that he is still looking for some kind of political apparatus to solve the peak oil problem. It was his writings that convinced me that most (all?) humans are essentially losers -- in 100% of scenarios they will simply make a series of trades that benefit them in the short-run but are disastrous in the long-run, at which point they will destroy themselves and the environment. It couldn't be any other way. The only solution that makes sense to me is to identify these traits that are essentially losing, and eliminate them through genetic manipulation. Everything else to me is just re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Does anyone know if it's still possible to join Jay's new list? It strikes me as being nothing more than a plausible excuse to interact with other "peak oilers", but that's all I'm interested in right now anyway.
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Grautr » Sun 07 Jun 2009, 09:18:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ben', 'I') have to say the more I realize that Jay Hanson is human, the more disappointed I become. :-D I always had the image of him being some perfectly logical being, almost machine-like. To hear his voice is weird. --snip--
Does anyone know if it's still possible to join Jay's new list? It strikes me as being nothing more than a plausible excuse to interact with other "peak oilers", but that's all I'm interested in right now anyway.
The last time I saw an invite to Jays group was only a few months back on the Yahoo dieoff Q and A list. I think if you pester him and show interest he will let you in.

But my question has to be, after reading what you wrote above and personaly I feel the same, why do you want to join a list to debate a hypothetical political solution to the problem?
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Re: Interview with Jay Hanson

Unread postby Ben » Sun 07 Jun 2009, 10:44:05

Thanks Grautr, I'll give it a try.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grautr', 'B')ut my question has to be, after reading what you wrote above and personaly I feel the same, why do you want to join a list to debate a hypothetical political solution to the problem?
Same reason I'm here, just trying to connect with like-minded people. The discussion topic is really just an excuse, for most people I think, whether they're conscious of that or not.
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