[Graeme]

New findings on peak oil timing and impacts to be presented at Houston Conference$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n Wednesday night at this week's Houston Oil Conference, Aage Figenschou will report on the changing date of Peak Oil as predicted by the IFP, the French Petroleum Institute. He says that in 2001 IFP predicted oil would peak in 2020. But in 2006, IFP said the year would be 2015; and in June of 2007, they had moved the peak year forward to 2010.

But more important than the date predicted for peak are the dates when impacts will be felt and the date mitigation steps are taken, say Conference organizers. Many energy analysts believe that $80 oil is creating impacts right now, and that mitigation steps are being taken very slowly, if at all.

"In the context of world oil," Hirsch says, "relatively small percentage changes are hugely meaningful." He notes that "a 1% change in current world oil production equates to over 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), which represents a huge volume." To save that level of consumption through increases in the efficiency of the world's light vehicle fleet, he says, would require more than a decade, assuming the implementation of a crash program.

His new study has resulted in three scenarios for mitigation of Peak Oil impacts:

1) Best Case Scenario - where maximum world oil production is followed by a multi-year plateau before the onset of a monatomic decline rate of 2-5% per year.

2) A Middling Case - where world oil production abruptly reaches a maximum, after which it drops into a long-term, 2-5% annual decline; and finally ...

3) A Worst Case, where the sharp peak of the Middling Case is degraded by oil exporters withholding product, leading to world oil shortages growing more rapidly than 2-5% per year, creating the most dire world economic impacts.

[roccman]

Well I go with #4

Bone crushing thud


Cantarell declining at 15-20%

KSA at 4-6%

Forty's Field 6-8%

North slope 6-8%


Then chuck in ELM at 2-5%

Then top it off with "above ground factors" - 2-5%

and we are at 30% decline rate.

We are screwed.

[turmoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '3')) A Worst Case, where the sharp peak of the Middling Case is degraded by oil exporters withholding product, leading to world oil shortages growing more rapidly than 2-5% per year, creating the most dire world economic impacts.

[dukey]

north sea has seen some steep declines
13% ish

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'W')ell I go with #4

Bone crushing thud


Cantarell declining at 15-20%

KSA at 4-6%

Forty's Field 6-8%

North slope 6-8%


Then chuck in ELM at 2-5%

Then top it off with "above ground factors" - 2-5%

and we are at 30% decline rate.

We are screwed.

[roccman]

My bad...50% decline.

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'W')ell I go with #4

Bone crushing thud


Cantarell declining at 15-20%

KSA at 4-6%

Forty's Field 6-8%

North slope 6-8%


Then chuck in ELM at 2-5%

Then top it off with "above ground factors" - 2-5%

and we are at 30% decline rate.

We are screwed.

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'P')lease feel free to make the more reasonable calculations. Thanks! =)

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', 'n')ot enough info. i don't know what the relative volume from each field is... alls i'm saying is that it looks like roccman is adding the decline rates of Cantarell, Forty's, KSA, and North Slope to get 30%. but to get an overall decline rate you should be taking a weighted average. to get a weighted average, you need to know the relative production volume of each field. i'm not claiming to be an oil expert, i just passed junior high math, yo.
given his numbers, the total decline rate would have to be somewhere between 4% and 20%.

[OnceFueled]

More than enough for the Dead-Cat Bounce.

I'm afraid it's gonna leave a mark.

[sicophiliac]

Well everybody I suggest this, when oil prices do their usual dip this winter I would recommend loading up on as many solid energy stocks as you can, as well as precious metals related investments. Hang on for the ride !

[shortonoil]

sicophiliac said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell everybody I suggest this, when oil prices do their usual dip this winter I would recommend loading up on as many solid energy stocks as you can, as well as precious metals related investments. Hang on for the ride !

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'M')y bad...50% decline.

[DantesPeak]

We've had about 1 million barrels of new production start over the last year, and there's a good chance that we could get about 1 million more over the next year too. But oil production (not counting biofuels and various kinds of conversions of other fuels to oil) is still falling. So it would seem that all existing fields are losing about 2% of their output per year. If you exclude the newer fields, you come up with even a steeper decline rate.

So, we can look forward to another year of crude production declines. By the end of 2008, it will likely appear to most that extractable crude peaked out sometime in 2006. Please note that total liquids (including everything) may not yet have peaked.