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Have We Been Wrong?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 15 Jan 2007, 23:58:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TigPil', ' ')There won't be any growth.


My, where to start?

No economic growth, but there will be a growth in population and demand. No growth = a shrinking money supply as no new loans are made. No ROI= no loans.

Our Money System and Oil Depletion; Are they Compatible?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he economy will contract just as it did in the Great Depression or World War II.


Huh?

The economy didn't contract during the Great Depression, it collapsed, worldwide.

WWII brought economic expansion which brought us out of the depression.

And less not we forget...

We were the #1 creditor nation then, #1 debtor now.

#1 producer and exporter of energy then, #1 importer now.

#1 producer of manufactured goods then, now were produce
Disneyland and debt.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have the feeling there will be some significant inflation with rising energy prices so debt will get inflated away.


Duh?

Inflation does not erase debt, it devalues the currency.

You still owe the same amount, it just has less purchasing power.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')reating new jobs won't be as much of a problem as retaining jobs in a contracting economy.


Duh?

We contracted the economy so that energy supply could meet demand. We have no new energy from which to create jobs. In fact, the available energy is in constant decline.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are such things as car pooling and public transportation that will be options for some.


So? Who absorbs this loss of economic activity? 1 in 6 jobs are tied to auto use. Cut back on auto use and you must cut jobs in the auto sector: parts, repair, car insurnace, body repair, carwashes, batteries, brakes, front end, fast food......I could go on for pages.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nergy can be diverted from the manufacture of non-essential goods and into the production of other energy infrastructure.


Non-essential to who? Who absorbs this loss?

Do people really forget that we are talking about the commodity that produces all commodities?

Oil.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 00:06:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')What about the energy required for growth? To service the debt, creare new jobs, etc?

5% decline in oil plus a loss of 3% growth equals 8% net drop.


Monte, you are adding here things that can't be added. 4% oil decline and 3% growth in GDP are like adding apples and bananas.

I'm willing to accept that declining oil implies a decline in GDP, because reduced transport is definitely a killer for the economy. Still, we don't know how much decline in GDP we would have with a given decline in oil.


Duh? A 4% decline means no new energy for growth. We need a 2 to 3% expansion of energy consumption to maintain economic growth, create jobs, etc. 1.7 to 2% oil consumption is the norm.

No growth = increasing unemployment, a shrinking money supply, while demand continues to skyrocket.

We know we won't have any increase in GDP without the energy to do it with...unless we just inflate the value of goods already produced and sell them to each other.. LOL!

Like we have done with housing?
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 00:16:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TigPil', ' ')In previous posts I advocated a conversion to renewable electrical energy generation in the form of solar and wind.


The issue isn't one of EROEI necessarily, it is one of scale.

Wind/solar comprise < 1% of our primary energy.

It takes fossil fuels to build them.

The EROEI may be quite positive, but the energy pay back time to start receiving new net energy can be decades for some centralized applications.

In other words, new energy consumers for some time.

What rate of growth is reasonable to expect?

I explored that here:

Peakoil and the Growth of Renewable Energy
Last edited by MonteQuest on Tue 16 Jan 2007, 00:23:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 00:21:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ')The economy doesn't care what is productive or non productive. If any part of the economy contracts, the economy contracts (unless another part expands to compensate). I think this is what a lot of people keep missing. There are a lot of jobs that are unproductive, but they provide a living, and finance a mortgage, for many people. There is a lot of driving which indirectly finances other jobs (even if just through less fill-ups, less impulse buying at service stations, less snap days out, less frequent tyre changes and servicing, less frequent car replacement, ...). A contracting economy is a contracting economy and will affect the livelihoods and lives of people. You can't cut down on economic activity, without affecting the economy.


Spot on, Tony! Energy doesn't care what it gets used for!

Few seem to be able to grasp this. We keep forget we are talking about "energy" not some resource that is not energy.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby TigPil » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 18:03:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TigPil', ' ')There won't be any growth.

My, where to start?


We could go back and forth point by point but I'm not sure there is much to be gained from further argument when opinions seem to be so thoroughly entrenched and the discussion is somewhat one sided. I will respond to a few points for the sake of clarification.

Monetarism: It is possible to have no economic growth and an increasing money supply. The condition is called "stagflation" and prevailed through much of the 1970s and 1980s. I think it is pretty hard to predict whether the onset of peakoil will be more deflationary or inflationary or go through multiple phases. One could make good arguments for either case.

Great Depression: "contract" and "collapse" is just semantics. GDP did drop on a Y/Y basis for four years straight. I think I posted the stats earlier in this thread or in a different one perhaps. World War II economic growth was government demand for the war rather than a recovery in the private sector but yes GDP increased when measured in that respect.

Inflation and debt: Yes inflation devalues the currency but since debt is nominally denominated, the real burden of repayment decreases. This is a complicated side issue though so not worth the time.

Jobs: Certain parts of the economy will become less energy intensive and more labor intensive. Agriculture is a good example that was much discussed earlier in the thread. It is unlikely the agricultural labor force can stay as low as it is now with the decline of fossil fuel inputs. On the whole though I do expect rising unemployment during the transition period, that is why I referenced the Great Depression in the first place when unemployment reached 24%.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby JPL » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 21:13:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Spot on, Tony! Energy doesn't care what it gets used for!

Few seem to be able to grasp this. We keep forget we are talking about "energy" not some resource that is not energy.


Hi MQ

Yep, I agree.

But also, meditation, and planting a garden, puts energy back into the system, but I think it is a different sort :o)

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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 17 Jan 2007, 00:06:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TigPil', ' ')We could go back and forth point by point but I'm not sure there is much to be gained from further argument when opinions seem to be so thoroughly entrenched and the discussion is somewhat one sided.


Oh? So, you use this to dodge my questions? Opinions? I say a grasp of the facts and a grasp of basic economics is lacking on your part.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')onetarism: It is possible to have no economic growth and an increasing money supply. The condition is called "stagflation" and prevailed through much of the 1970s and 1980s. I think it is pretty hard to predict whether the onset of peakoil will be more deflationary or inflationary or go through multiple phases. One could make good arguments for either case.

Great Depression: "contract" and "collapse" is just semantics. GDP did drop on a Y/Y basis for four years straight. I think I posted the stats earlier in this thread or in a different one perhaps. World War II economic growth was government demand for the war rather than a recovery in the private sector but yes GDP increased when measured in that respect.

Inflation and debt: Yes inflation devalues the currency but since debt is nominally denominated, the real burden of repayment decreases. This is a complicated side issue though so not worth the time.

Jobs: Certain parts of the economy will become less energy intensive and more labor intensive. Agriculture is a good example that was much discussed earlier in the thread. It is unlikely the agricultural labor force can stay as low as it is now with the decline of fossil fuel inputs. On the whole though I do expect rising unemployment during the transition period, that is why I referenced the Great Depression in the first place when unemployment reached 24%.


If you do a search, you will see I have written articles at length on each of these issues. Had it not been for WWII, it might have taken decades for the private sector to recover.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby medicvet » Fri 19 Jan 2007, 03:06:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'N')ow someone please do the energy slave math again - i like that part the most :)
How many man hours per gallon of gas, barrel of oil etc etc?



Maybe we will go back to using human slaves.

The Alberta tar sands could be dug out with human slave labor. The chopping and transportation of wood for cooking the sands could also be assigned to the slaves.

This would keep the military and hi-tech sectors functioning at the command of the ruling elites.



Some would call it slave labor...some would call it prison labor..think about it..there are at awful lot of laws that one can break...and more laws being put on the books all the time....
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Fri 19 Jan 2007, 10:38:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('medicvet', 'S')ome would call it slave labor...some would call it prison labor..think about it..there are at awful lot of laws that one can break...and more laws being put on the books all the time....


I'm pretty sure that NEOPO would go so far to say that if the current administration stay in power, then what would be considered slavery to many, would be moulded into laws defined as "Patriotism".

If Loose Change is anything to go by, nothing is impossible for the NEOCONs.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby Revi » Sat 20 Jan 2007, 00:12:15

It certainly will take a lot more people to do most agricultural activities without fossil fuels. We will have to re-organize society to make it work. The middle class will dissapear, as would the 5 day week. The question is what will we do? There will be a lot of landless peasants. They'll all have to work like slaves for the few landowners. Most people will not be suited to it. Some will adapt. It's not going to be fun.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 20 Jan 2007, 14:32:48

Why would they have to work like slaves? Only if we accept that slavery is inevitable and desirable. I see a tendency for people to assume they will be the landlord and others will be the serfs. There is planty of land available for growing food, though crowded cities will need to disperse.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby slick » Mon 22 Jan 2007, 02:47:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '.')..crowded cities will need to disperse.


There were many crowded cities before mankind started using oil.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby gego » Mon 22 Jan 2007, 03:25:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('slick', '
')
There were many crowded cities before mankind started using oil.


Were they this crowded, and did they depend upon an oil based infrastructure to the extent the world does today?

Seoul 10,321,000
Mumbai 9,900,000
SanPaulo 9,839,000
Jukarta 9,938,000
Moscow 9,000,000
MexicoCity 8,591,000
Shanghai 8,205,000
Tokyo 8,021,000
Istanbul 7,774,000
NYC 7,362,000

That is only about 1.5% of the global population in the top ten.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 22 Jan 2007, 13:25:51

I thought that Mexico City was still the biggest, but it looks like lots of places have outstripped it. A friend from there called it "el hollo negro" or the black hole. It was kinda nice when Diego and Frida were around, but it's turned into a monster since then. I lived in Guatemala City in the 80's and it was quite nice. I went back and it had turned into a total mess. The mountains are barely visible most days now. Yuck!
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby slick » Tue 23 Jan 2007, 00:30:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he mountains are barely visible most days now. Yuck!


Well, scarce oil would soon fix that, wouldn't it? :)
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 23 Jan 2007, 01:07:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('slick', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he mountains are barely visible most days now. Yuck!


Well, scarce oil would soon fix that, wouldn't it? :)


Hardly, the next fossil fuel on the menu is coal.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby NEOPO » Tue 23 Jan 2007, 03:05:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '
')Good thread.

Its the trifecta!!
The decline of: Production, EROEI and their evil step brother Energy density.
....
We will all be doomers when the dust settles on this thread


I wonder how to isolate and predict the effect of the Energy density. In a sense, it looks to me to be a Siamese twin of EROEI because it is included in the ER part of that equation, but it would be perhaps more revealing to calculate this as a separate factor were that possible; any thoughts.

Before you know it someone may even find another sibling, perhaps locked away in the basement.

So true.
Yes - we need like an overlay for the three aspects associated with PO thus far.
One for Decline which might be represented conservatively as a steady 3% decline on a graph.
One for EROEI which would be a scale from 100 to 1 flowing along a bottom time line from the good ole days of production to the supposed end which might be the point where it reachs 2/1 or 1.5/1.
And One for oil grade which I am aware of yet not schooled enough to know how to chart something like that or define its perimeters.
Wiki has a decent ED intro pagehere:energy density
and a decent article dealing in part with this issue is found here: peak sugar
My limited understanding leads me to believe that the transition from high energy dense SLC to the lower energy density of Heavy Sour is not that important while it is occurring quite slowly yet the cumulative effect will be pronounced and should be considered in any Peak theories.
So depletion is depletion is rather simple.
Eroei is the measurement of energy returned on energy invested from a production stand point.
Some may suggest that Energy density is included in EROEI yet I have not seen this seperation where conventional oil grade is concerned - tas sands and bitumen sure but not conventional petroleum.

I imagine EROEI and simple depletion will steal the limelight away from energy density yet it is nevertheless in effect behind the scenes aiding and abetting our energy demise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('medicvet', 'S')ome would call it slave labor...some would call it prison labor..think about it..there are at awful lot of laws that one can break...and more laws being put on the books all the time....


I'm pretty sure that NEOPO would go so far to say that if the current administration stay in power, then what would be considered slavery to many, would be moulded into laws defined as "Patriotism".

If Loose Change is anything to go by, nothing is impossible for the NEOCONs.

I like how you used me as a fodder to disclose your own secret position :razz:
My brain called and said that it has changed all the locks and has a restraining order against your brain which is to remain a minimum of 500 feet away :lol:

Do americans remember when bush got in and bribed all of us blue collars with a nice little tax check in the middle of the summer?
I sure do and I also remember a few hard working "patriotic" co workers who stated that "if the country and the president needed that money for war or whatever then they would gladly return it".
I also recall back in 03' a "good friend" ready to gut me for suggesting that the Iraq war was all about oil.
At that point deep within my soul I knew that Mr Orwell was not an author of fiction.

WAR IS PEACE - FREEDOM IS SLAVERY - IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH
It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby gego » Tue 23 Jan 2007, 14:14:18

In the January, 2007 ASPO newsletter, they indicate 2005 production to be 80 mbpd and 2010 (peak gross production) to be 90 mbpd. This works out to roughly a 2.4% increase per year.

If we are facing a 3.5% annual increase in the EI portion of the EROEI concept, then we will be net losing ground between now and 2010.

Not a good picture; this shows the power of the law of diminishing returns.
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 08:12:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'I')n the January, 2007 ASPO newsletter, they indicate 2005 production to be 80 mbpd and 2010 (peak gross production) to be 90 mbpd. This works out to roughly a 2.4% increase per year.

If we are facing a 3.5% annual increase in the EI portion of the EROEI concept, then we will be net losing ground between now and 2010.

Not a good picture; this shows the power of the law of diminishing returns.


Well I know that this thread has been around for a month or so now, and per usual, a thread that has this many posts can deviate drastically from the original topic, I thank you gego for your tenacity. I first posted this thread with a notion that Peak Oil though serious is really a smoke screen for a larger problem. I asked a question "Have we been wrong? All I can conclude from others reasoning is that we have.

Nice to see Bush doing his deluded bit once again with ethanol. Anyone else think he is pushing for a different swan song?
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Re: Have We Been Wrong?

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 12:14:25

I think Bush is trying to appear to have "done something" by calling for this that and the other, so no-one can blame him for "not having done anything" about global warming and the energy situation.

Presto! He has "done something."
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