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Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby kmann » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 00:47:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't buy it.
I'm not trying to sell it. This stat, like all others, should understood for what it is, and isn't. It is an advance number subject to revision. It is also indicative of what's going on in the whole nation, not just one VA hospital or one university. It isn't the final word on the current state of the economy, but it's the best available right now and from my perspective it appears accurate enough to be useful.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 01:14:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', 'T')he GDP figure is an incredibly useful piece of information.

I just sold my buddy a beer mug for $10,000,000,000. Then I bought it back for $10,000,000,000

Between us we just added 20 bill. to the GDP. You're welcome.


Buying and selling investments are not counted in GDP.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby gollum » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 01:17:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alpha480v', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', 'G')overnment spending was down 0.2 % for the quarter. This growth was not led by stimulus dollars.




I don't buy it. I work for the Federal government(Dept. Of Veterans Affairs) and my facility alone has 10 million dollars in Stimulus projects going on right now, or soon to start.



I to work for the government, lot of spending this year...renovations and overtime....
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 06:12:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', 'T')he GDP figure is an incredibly useful piece of information.

I just sold my buddy a beer mug for $10,000,000,000. Then I bought it back for $10,000,000,000

Between us we just added 20 bill. to the GDP. You're welcome.

It seems, that now both of you should pay sales tax.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 09:04:32

Bloomberg: Roubini declares that US GDP is a dismal failure, concluding that the US is "in trouble" “It’s going to feel like a recession even if technically we’re not going to be in a recession,” he said.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby Kristjan » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 11:56:58

Roubini is like a broken clock that's right twice daily. He's been überbearish since ....well...forever I guess. He is a victim of his own success and now he can't seem to break out. Each time something positive about the economy comes out, he starts telling us why it's not as it seems. But who cares? GDP is not supposed to measure the well being of individuals or the viability of corporations. Everyone knows that! GDP is a measure of economic activity. Economic activity doesn't necessarily mean that less people are unemployed, but usually when you get successive quarters of growth, unemployment tends to decrease, wages tend to increase, investments tend to increase and so. And that is why economists focus of the GDP number. I don't know why Roubini is so bearish... maybe he just likes to see the US burn?
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 15:44:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', 'R')oubini is like a broken clock that's right twice daily. He's been überbearish since ....well...forever I guess. He is a victim of his own success and now he can't seem to break out. Each time something positive about the economy comes out, he starts telling us why it's not as it seems. But who cares? GDP is not supposed to measure the well being of individuals or the viability of corporations. Everyone knows that! GDP is a measure of economic activity. Economic activity doesn't necessarily mean that less people are unemployed, but usually when you get successive quarters of growth, unemployment tends to decrease, wages tend to increase, investments tend to increase and so. And that is why economists focus of the GDP number. I don't know why Roubini is so bearish... maybe he just likes to see the US burn?


Irrespective of whether Roubini has a bearish bias, he is correct to point out that the GDP figure deserves close scrutiny and should not be taken at face value, especially amid unparalleled deficit spending and abnormally loose monetary policies. If a majority of the GDP figure results from temporary govt and Fed stimulus measures, then he is correct to suggest that when those temporary forces stop, the ensuing GDP figure will be commensurately smaller.

Obama, Pelosi et al. have essentially mortgaged the country's future (via rampant deficit spending) in order to provide a temporary stimulus, rather than focus on the core macroeconomic issues facing the US. More troubling, future interest payments on these deficits will limit future govt spending on needed social services.

What value is there in having a shallow, hollow, govt-sponsored "recovery," when the long-term costs of the stimulus will significantly offset any perceived short-term benefit?

The government sector is usurping and suffocating the private sector, and this will not end well for future generations.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 16:45:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', 'T')he government sector is usurping and suffocating the private sector, and this will not end well for future generations.


I'd say its a more immediate problem that We will be dealing with sooner than later.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 16:50:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', 'T')he government sector is usurping and suffocating the private sector, and this will not end well for future generations.


I'd say its a more immediate problem that We will be dealing with sooner than later.


I agree, our generation is already groaning under the mismanagement that is running most of the governments world wide. How much longer will we be able to adapt before something falls apart and starts a cascade failure?
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby mos6507 » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 19:14:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')Obama, Pelosi et al. have essentially mortgaged the country's future (via rampant deficit spending) in order to provide a temporary stimulus, rather than focus on the core macroeconomic issues facing the US. More troubling, future interest payments on these deficits will limit future govt spending on needed social services.


And what form should that have taken?

I see a lot of criticism of what's been done but not a lot of detail on what they should have done, other than folks like Schiff who say we should have just done NOTHING and let everything crash and burn to the ground.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby Revi » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 19:22:01

The longer we can hold up this house of cards the better. We all know that it is only a matter of time before we are all riding shanks mare and eating rice and beans, if we're lucky.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby pablonite » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 19:32:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')Obama, Pelosi et al. have essentially mortgaged the country's future (via rampant deficit spending) in order to provide a temporary stimulus, rather than focus on the core macroeconomic issues facing the US. More troubling, future interest payments on these deficits will limit future govt spending on needed social services.


And what form should that have taken?

I see a lot of criticism of what's been done but not a lot of detail on what they should have done, other than folks like Schiff who say we should have just done NOTHING and let everything crash and burn to the ground.

Good question. It's quite a Frankenstein, how they keep coming up with the interest payments on a quadrillion dollar derivative bubble is easy with computers and stimulus. The real fancy footwork comes when they try and redistribute wealth in a reasonable manner just to keep the pitchforks at bay. Unless the huddled masses go down hungry and cold with barely a whimper?
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 19:46:32

Anyone who believes the fuzzy math being spouted by the USA government is a fool. The big players all know these numbers have been massaged so hard they are as stiff as toothpaste! That is the most likely reason the Markets didn't get a bump from the rosy picture presented, they do no believe the number is real and neither do I.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 20:23:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')Obama, Pelosi et al. have essentially mortgaged the country's future (via rampant deficit spending) in order to provide a temporary stimulus, rather than focus on the core macroeconomic issues facing the US. More troubling, future interest payments on these deficits will limit future govt spending on needed social services.


And what form should that have taken?

I see a lot of criticism of what's been done but not a lot of detail on what they should have done, other than folks like Schiff who say we should have just done NOTHING and let everything crash and burn to the ground.


Mos, in lieu of Obama’s short-term, shotgun approach to pork-laden stimulus spending, the following core macroeconomic issues should be addressed:

1. The US's hollowed-out manufacturing base (less than 9% of the economy is mfg, back to 1941 levels);
2. The US's rampant, escalating off-shoring of labor;
3. The US's reliance on "bubbles" to sustain the illusions of "growth" and "prosperity"
4. The US's massive shift of resources from the private sector to the public sector;
5. The US's reliance on consumer credit and consumer spending to power its economy;
6. The US's rampant bailouts of Wall Street banksters & failed companies (AIG; GM)
7. The US's defacto nationalization of the housing/mortgage sector (Fannie/Freddie/FHA);
8. The US's reliance on the obsolete "Growth Model"
9. The US's reliance on foreign oil and its lack of a cohesive energy/resources policy;
10. The US's massive deficit spending and its reliance on foreign investors to purchase Treasuries;
11. The US's short-sidedness and tendency to "kick the can" down the road rather than address present issues;
12. The US's total evisceration of the US Constitution, especially Article 1, Section 8.
13. The US's failure to regulate derivatives, CDO's, and banking in general;
14, The US's fudging publicly-disseminated data and its deception regarding PO, GW, etc.
15. The US's and the Fed's lack of transparency;
16. The Fed's massive distortions of the free market via artificially low interest rates and QE (printing)
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 21:24:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pablonite', ' ')The real fancy footwork comes when they try and redistribute wealth in a reasonable manner just to keep the pitchforks at bay.



Not likely with a biggish percentage (40%?) of folks so worried about the rich being taxed they will fight to stop any tax increases, even on the top 2%. Maybe they think they will win the lottery and become rich themselves? Otherwise I'm not sure why they are so worried about these rich folks.

We don't need to worry about the rich, they will be fine. We need to be worrying about the rest of us. 8O

Personally, and this is just my lame-ass uninformed opinion, I think folks need to stop working for The Man and work to support ourselves and each other. Like I said earlier, if productivity is up and so many people are unemployed, the employed are working much too hard, and should probably slack off and steal some pencils or something. Or start an under-the-table business.* :cry:

*I don't "advocate" any illegal activity :|
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby mos6507 » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 23:12:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')Mos, in lieu of Obama’s short-term, shotgun approach to pork-laden stimulus spending, the following core macroeconomic issues should be addressed:

1. The US's hollowed-out manufacturing base (less than 9% of the economy is mfg, back to 1941 levels);
2. The US's rampant, escalating off-shoring of labor;
3. The US's reliance on "bubbles" to sustain the illusions of "growth" and "prosperity"
4. The US's massive shift of resources from the private sector to the public sector;
5. The US's reliance on consumer credit and consumer spending to power its economy;
6. The US's rampant bailouts of Wall Street banksters & failed companies (AIG; GM)
7. The US's defacto nationalization of the housing/mortgage sector (Fannie/Freddie/FHA);
8. The US's reliance on the obsolete "Growth Model"
9. The US's reliance on foreign oil and its lack of a cohesive energy/resources policy;
10. The US's massive deficit spending and its reliance on foreign investors to purchase Treasuries;
11. The US's short-sidedness and tendency to "kick the can" down the road rather than address present issues;
12. The US's total evisceration of the US Constitution, especially Article 1, Section 8.
13. The US's failure to regulate derivatives, CDO's, and banking in general;
14, The US's fudging publicly-disseminated data and its deception regarding PO, GW, etc.
15. The US's and the Fed's lack of transparency;
16. The Fed's massive distortions of the free market via artificially low interest rates and QE (printing)



The majority of these are a critique of american society as a whole and are not really within the domain of the government to solve, at least not without seriously upsetting the applecart.

Most of the rest is yet another critique of what the US has done in reaction to the credit crisis rather than an alternate plan we should have followed.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby mos6507 » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 23:18:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')nyone who believes the fuzzy math being spouted by the USA government is a fool. The big players all know these numbers have been massaged so hard they are as stiff as toothpaste! That is the most likely reason the Markets didn't get a bump from the rosy picture presented, they do no believe the number is real and neither do I.


Let's not be hypocritical and celebrate all numbers that are negative and claim that any numbers that are good are faked. This is the kind of stuff that gives doomers a bad name. Why can't we just be LONG on doom rather than expecting every chapter of this story to be uniformly negative? This is why so many doomers like Matt Simmons called the end of the world when oil hit $147/bbl, only to look like an idiot afterwards. Let the economy do its partial recovery. It won't necessarily change the end product.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 23:18:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '1'). The US's hollowed-out manufacturing base (less than 9% of the economy is mfg, back to 1941 levels);

This is way off. Back in 1941 manufacturing would have been something like 30% of the US economy, or even more.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 31 Jan 2010, 02:02:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')nyone who believes the fuzzy math being spouted by the USA government is a fool. The big players all know these numbers have been massaged so hard they are as stiff as toothpaste! That is the most likely reason the Markets didn't get a bump from the rosy picture presented, they do no believe the number is real and neither do I.


Let's not be hypocritical and celebrate all numbers that are negative and claim that any numbers that are good are faked. This is the kind of stuff that gives doomers a bad name. Why can't we just be LONG on doom rather than expecting every chapter of this story to be uniformly negative? This is why so many doomers like Matt Simmons called the end of the world when oil hit $147/bbl, only to look like an idiot afterwards. Let the economy do its partial recovery. It won't necessarily change the end product.


I Heartily agree with everything you just typed. However I am dead serious when I say that the numbers have been massaged so hard that they no longer reflect reality. This was equally true in 2004, and mostly true even in 1994. As time has passed since the Great Society was enacted in the 1960's the numbers released by the government of the USA have grown less and less reflective of what people in the 'real world' are experiencing compared to what the numerical formula's used say they mean. Before 1970 GDP had a solid foundational meaning when the term was used, however the number used today as GDP has almost no resemblance to what the number would be if the methodology from before 1970 were still used. The same thing is true of Inflation numbers and Unemployment numbers, any numbers that might make TPTB (whichever ones it is at any given time) look bad go through a series of 'adjustments' to make them look more appealing.
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Re: Happy Days are here again ! GDP + 5.7%

Unread postby Kristjan » Sun 31 Jan 2010, 06:23:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')1. The US's hollowed-out manufacturing base (less than 9% of the economy is mfg, back to 1941 levels)

Where do you get this number from? According to Wikipedia (citing CIA), in 2005 the industrial sector accounted for 20.4% of US GDP: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... omposition
According to CIA Factbook, in 2009 industry accounted for 21.9% of US GDP. Do you have a source to back up your claim or did you get it from Glenn Beck? :-D
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