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Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby lateralus » Wed 19 Sep 2007, 22:51:58

Overshoot is what happens when your sled hits a bump and goes way to fast and you speed really, really fast down a slippery slope that leads you to a tarmac that you were not expecting. Dangerous is sledding in the snow without proper preparations.

No degree required.
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 19 Sep 2007, 22:55:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'A')gain monte...you are not staying focused.

Not only are you not staying focused, but you are also being passively threatening.

Good thing you are not a mod around here.


I was when those actions were taken, so the rules still apply.

It isn't about me, it's about not allowing members to publicly question moderator's actions at any time...even after they are no longer moderators.

It is to protect the ability of the current moderators to do their job without being constantly harrassed and questioned about it.

Reminding you that you are in violation of the COC and subject to an automatic 2 week ban for doing so, is not threatening anything.

Reap what you sow.

Mods?
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby roccman » Wed 19 Sep 2007, 23:07:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'A')gain monte...you are not staying focused.

Not only are you not staying focused, but you are also being passively threatening.

Good thing you are not a mod around here.


I was when those actions were taken, so the rules still apply.

It isn't about me, it's about not allowing members to publicly question moderator's actions at any time...even after they are no longer moderators.

It is to protect the ability of the current moderators to do their job without being constantly harrassed and questioned about it.

Reminding you that you are in violation of the COC and subject to an automatic 2 week ban for doing so, is not threatening anything.

Reap what you sow.

Mods?


You are pathetic Monte...absolutely pathetic.
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 00:50:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', 'M')onte screwed up with the 'die-off' sketch.


Oh? I thought my sketch was quite moderate.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'T')here has been a continuous debate about whether or not there will be a die-off of the human population post-peak oil. I think there is great confusion regarding this. Will there be a massive increase in human mortality across the globe overnight? It is possible, but in my opinion, not very likely, unless we nuke the oil fields. I think that what we will see will reflect the inequity in the world today; the difference between the haves and the have nots.

The inevitable die-off necessitated by overshoot will apply differently depending upon where you are in the Petri dish. In the third-world, the inability to purchase or grow food will cause starvation, malnutrition, and markedly increase the death rate. Many starving countries rely on exports of cash crops to survive. They won’t be able to afford IMF debt, nor the energy required for irrigation, petrochemicals, or fertilizers.

In the 1st world, our standard of living will decline markedly. In some ways, modern civilization has allowed us to redirect or satisfy the desire to reproduce by allowing us to acquire things—material possessions—in place of having children. Our "material infant mortality" will increase dramatically. I see an end to NASCAR and long commutes, long-haul trucking, and an implosion of our urban sprawl and financial systems. Unemployment will rise beyond belief. People will have to actually work for a living, rather than live off investments.

This might seem, in principle, an alternative to the more literal form of die-off which is an abrupt increase in human mortality. Of course, there will be a lack of available, affordable medical care, resulting in a lower life expectancy. Poorer diets will also lower life expectancy. As the standard of living declines, more of the lower income and elderly will starve, freeze to death, or die from heat exhaustion, as do every year. Depending upon the rate of decline of available energy, the attrition could be slow or quite fast.
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby Ludi » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 10:15:33

Ok Monte, but this would mean having to read a book. Would you read it?


BTW, this isn't about debating overshoot and die-off. I'm not debating that anymore. I really don't care about it anymore. I don't think it's useful or helpful to dwell on it, personally.
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby NWMossBack » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 13:53:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'C')arrying capacity is not about how much food you can grow by any means. It is about the ability of the environment to tolerate our presence...our ecological footprint. The consumption of resources, biodiversity, and the ability to absorb our wastes.


I realize this thread is not a serious discussion of overshoot, but this phrase jumped out at me. I think this interpretation of carrying capacity contains a subjective aspect to it: i.e. "How much ecological impact is too much."

I don't recall reading this definition in Overshoot; I have been interpreting "carrying capacity" as a per species absolute population limit based on available food, energy, etc.

Perhaps the broader definition helps explain the wildly divergent calculations for human carrying capacity. I think it also nudges the topic away from purely a biological assessment, and includes a philosophical value judgement.

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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby NWMossBack » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 14:16:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', ' ')We may or may not be in overshoot. Even Gigi Richard didn't say that we were. She said that taking median values from some studies suggested we may be in overshoot. There is a world of difference between this reasonable stance and your strident claims.


Then take on William Catton who stridently claimed we were in overshoot in 1982 when the world's population was only 4 billion.

You are in denial and on my ignore list.




Confirmation bias Monte? You continue pointless discourse with obvious trolls, but brusquely dismiss or "ignore" the civil and rationally presented arguments from those you do not agree with.

If your goal is to inform people, this tactic does not serve you well. If your goal is to be a lightning rod for trolls and malcontents, then well done, and carry on.
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby NWMossBack » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 14:20:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '
')It's a fact that our species depends upon a healthy ecosystem for its survival. That's not subjective. The continual damage we are doing to the ecosystem is clearly not sustainable. A healthy ecosystem is definitely contained within the definition of carrying capacity, regardless of how difficult it is to quantify what "healthy ecosystem" means.


If you cannot quantify "healthy ecosystem" how can you quantify the carrying capacity that follows from it?
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 17:11:49

I observe that few reasonable changes have happened on this forum (eg Monte got tempered a bit), so may be it is time to start posting again?
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby jasonraymondson » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 17:50:34

How the hell can I miss Montequest, he apparently didin't freaking leave.

Damn Nazi Muffin :P
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby NWMossBack » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 18:32:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'I') didn't say you could quantify it, I said it's not subjective. :) While I personally believe we're in severe overshoot, I have agreed with those who argue we don't know the carrying capacity with precision, and that it's dynamic to some extent. The reason I posted what I just did is that I believe it's important for people to understand that we are dependent on the health of the ecosystem.


OK, I can get behind that. For what it's worth I think you are probably right. Where I have a problem is when someone claims that it is a scientific fact that we are in overshoot, and a die-off is the inevitable result. Since the experts are clearly divided on the subject, it can hardly be characterized as an axiom from "Biology 101".
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 22:24:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'C')arrying capacity is not about how much food you can grow by any means. It is about the ability of the environment to tolerate our presence...our ecological footprint. The consumption of resources, biodiversity, and the ability to absorb our wastes.


I realize this thread is not a serious discussion of overshoot, but this phrase jumped out at me. I think this interpretation of carrying capacity contains a subjective aspect to it: i.e. "How much ecological impact is too much."

I don't recall reading this definition in Overshoot; I have been interpreting "carrying capacity" as a per species absolute population limit based on available food, energy, etc.

Perhaps the broader definition helps explain the wildly divergent calculations for human carrying capacity. I think it also nudges the topic away from purely a biological assessment, and includes a philosophical value judgement.


Let me refresh you, then. This is the root of our problem; failure to grasp the ecological paradigm.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', 'T')he consequences of our uses of hydrocarbon fuels will never be adequately understood if viewed apart from a context provided by principles of ecology," Catton explained. "It's become essential to recognize that all creatures, human or otherwise, impose a load upon the environments that surround them, the ability of that environment to supply what they need, and to absorb and transform what they excrete or discard.

"What is meant by an environment's carrying capacity for a given kind of creature living in a given way of life, is the maximum persistently feasible load. It's a load just short of what would begin damaging that environment's ability to support life of that kind.

Most people still resist seeing the relevance of the carrying capacity concept for the human condition. Without this conceptual aid to vision, they fail to see the serious effects of overuse of the environment or of a resource.


From Overshoot:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', 'F')rom the very definition of carrying capacity—the maximum indefinitely supportable ecological load—we can now see that non-renewable resources provide no real carrying capacity; they provide only phantom carrying capacity.


And his most often quote:

“An environment's carrying capacity is its maximum persistently supportable load.” (Catton 1986)

And here:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', 'T')he concept of human carrying capacity is not qualified sufficiently by noting that the load depends on level of living as well as number of people. What the carrying capacity concept must spotlight is the issue of system durability; how long can an ecosystem support a given load? It is true that the load varies with level of living. It is no less essential to recognize the idea (which should be so simple) that overuse of an environment reduces its load-supporting capacity for future generations of users.
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 22:44:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', ' ')You continue pointless discourse with obvious trolls, but brusquely dismiss or "ignore" the civil and rationally presented arguments from those you do not agree with.


LOL! I write not to win a debate with any troll, but for the lurkers who read these forums.

Sure, often I should just not respond.

Anyone else guilty of that?

I put davep on my ignore list because he is in denial of reality. It is a waste of time to try to debate someone who does not grasp the concepts of the issue.

To say we are not in overshoot is ludicrous and reeks of an ignorance of well-known science.

I'll let Catton explain.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', '[')b]DENYING REALITY
There are others who deny the whole idea that carrying capacity has now been, or ever will be, exceeded by the human load. Writing of a future "age of abundance," an economist at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC, has argued that just because a grocery store stocks only a three days supply of milk no one worries that life after the third day must be lived without milk, and similarly, we should not expect to run out of copper simply because copper mining companies calculate that they have only a certain number of years of reserves. When they use up those reserves, they will have a renewed incentive to locate new sources of supply (Moore, 1995,116).

He insists, therefore, that the only reliable measure of "a resource's supply is the change in its market price." In support of that view, he cites Julian Simon's book. The Ultimate Resource, a title alluding to human brains and reflecting a faith that ever-increasing numbers of them on this planet will ensure an escalation of solutions to outrace any escalation of problems.

In a more recent book, Simon (1994,65) has asserted that we already have in the world's libraries "the technology to feed, clothe, and supply energy to an ever-growing population for the next 7 billion years." After noting the relative recency of much of our technological knowledge, Simon adds, "Even if no new knowledge were ever invented after those advances, we would be able to go on increasing forever, improving our standard of living and our control over our environment."

If most human ecologists would regard this as quite preposterous and detached from reality, I have felt almost as stunned each time I have read the negating paraphrase by Julian Simon and Herman Kahn (1984,1-2) of the summary of The Global 2000 Report to the President:

If present trends continue, the world in 2000 will be less crowded (though more populated), less polluted, more stable ecologically, and less vulnerable to resource supply disruptions than the world we live in now. Stresses involving population, resources, and environment will be less in the future than now... The world's people will be richer in most ways than they are today ... The out­look for food and other necessities of life will be better ... life for most people on earth will be less precarious economically than it is now.
The emphases and ellipses are by Simon and Kahn, obviously intended to make their glowing expectations contrast maximally and point-for-point with the Global 2000 summary they were paraphrasing.

Knowing these two men to be both intelligent and educated, I have wondered every time I looked at the quoted passage how they could so flagrantly deny what so many ecologists regard as the real state of the world.7 As long ago as 1956, a past president of the American Ecological Society, who was then president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and would shortly thereafter serve as president of the American Society of Naturalists, wrote: "I have yet to meet a biologist who shares the optimistic unconcern about natural resources that is so prevalent among a considerable group of technologists and economists" (Sears, 1956,22).


http://www.greatchange.org/ov-catton,denial.html

I think many of my detractors suffer from this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', 'E')cological understanding of nature's limits and man's place in nature contradicts deeply entrenched cultural expectations of endless material progress.


I dismiss or "ignore" arguments from those who do not agree with or show a profound lack of knowledge of known science...not me.
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 22:56:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', ' ')Confirmation bias, Monte?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions and avoid information and interpretations which contradict prior beliefs.


Biology and ecology are not beliefs, they are science.

I do my homework on both sides.

It is why I don't "cherry-pick" a carrying capacity number as davep continues to say I do. I link to the whole gambit of studies.

He does not grasp the concept of overshoot.

Few do.

That is patently clear.

Not my opinion; just basic known science.

Trying to refute or dismiss known science is what the is doing, not disagreeing with me.

Overshoot is not my opinion; it is reality.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Fri 21 Sep 2007, 00:56:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Carrying Capacity

Postby NWMossBack » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 23:10:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', 'T')he concept of human carrying capacity is not qualified sufficiently by noting that the load depends on level of living as well as number of people. What the carrying capacity concept must spotlight is the issue of system durability; how long can an ecosystem support a given load? It is true that the load varies with level of living. It is no less essential to recognize the idea (which should be so simple) that overuse of an environment reduces its load-supporting capacity for future generations of users.


Thanks for taking my observations seriously Monte, and thanks for the Catton quote above that directly addresses my point.

So according to Catton, carrying capacity is a bit of a sliding scale based on standard of living. He adds a warning to be mindful of cumulative degradation of the environment, but taking a long view in that case I would think it would not truly be a system in equilibrium.

So it seems reasonable to deduce that there could be a continuum of potential carrying capacities for humans, with a corresponding level of environmental impact at each point. The absolute lowest capacity corresponding to a pristine natural environment, and the absolute highest corresponding to some unknown level of man-made environmental degradation.

I do not think it is possible to know in advance what that maximum level of degradation is. A prudent society would obviously err on the side of caution and refrain from testing the limits, but since draconian population reduction measures are off the table (right?) all we can do now is reduce our footprint by all means at our disposal.
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 23:10:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', ' ') Where I have a problem is when someone claims that it is a scientific fact that we are in overshoot, and a die-off is the inevitable result. Since the experts are clearly divided on the subject, it can hardly be characterized as an axiom from "Biology 101".


Like I said, refute Catton.

Refute these 17 leading commentators in the field of population and development.

http://eco.gn.apc.org/pubs/smail.html

The experts are not divided; they are in unanimous agreement that we are in overshoot, save Julian Simon and a few others in denial of reality..

Die-off is always the inevitable result of overshoot.

Always has been and always will be.

That is biology 101.

There is not an ecologist or biologist I know of who would disagree..and I know a lot of them from my work for the National Park Service, the US Forest Service, and US Fish and Wildlife Service.
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Re: Carrying Capacity

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 23:15:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', ' ')I do not think it is possible to know in advance what that maximum level of degradation is. A prudent society would obviously err on the side of caution and refrain from testing the limits, but since draconian population reduction measures are off the table (right?) all we can do now is reduce our footprint by all means at our disposal.


Reducing our footprint is meaningless if we don't reduce our population.

A 25% across the board cut would be exclipsed in 13 years by population growth alone,according to a study I read.

I'll try to find the link.
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 23:19:06

Anyone who wishes to debate me needs to read all of the works of Catton at this search link.

William R. Catton Jr.

Especially this one.

The public denial of the reality of overshoot
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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 23:26:49

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Re: Does anyone miss MonteQuest...?

Postby NWMossBack » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 23:34:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
I'll let Catton explain.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', '[')b]DENYING REALITY
There are others who deny the whole idea that carrying capacity has now been, or ever will be, exceeded by the human load. Writing of a future "age of abundance," an economist at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC, has argued that just because a grocery store stocks only a three days supply of milk no one worries that life after the third day must be lived without milk, and similarly, we should not expect to run out of copper simply because copper mining companies calculate that they have only a certain number of years of reserves. When they use up those reserves, they will have a renewed incentive to locate new sources of supply (Moore, 1995,116)...................


I think many of my detractors suffer from this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', 'E')cological understanding of nature's limits and man's place in nature contradicts deeply entrenched cultural expectations of endless material progress.


Straw man. I'm not a cornucopian wingnut, and neither is davep. (as near as I can tell.)
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