[Newfie]

The problem is that “gun control” only works for those that obey the law.

There are a few high profile cases that hit the media and shape the gun control argument. The vast majority of murders and attempted murders get only local attention and are different that the incidents in mass media.

Above I reported on 5 execution style murders in Philadelphia in 3 days. In one a young woman was shot from behind on a city street and the whole thing was caught in video, the mans face clearly visible. But no one knows nothing.

That is not a gun control problem, it is much deeper and systemic.

And it is not being reported on in MSM, barley by local outlets, so it is not being discussed

[Newfie]

Here is an editorial by a recent past Philly Mayor. It bears on the subject at hand.

https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commen ... 11207.html

Krasner was recently re-elected as DA simply because he was the Democrat and no Republican can win anything in Philly.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'H')ave you ever seen this article, on the origins of gun control in California? It is fascinating, along the point you've just raised, if only because who was involved, and maybe why.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'T')he problem is that “gun control” only works for those that obey the law.

[Newfie]

Adam wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Any suggestions better than the normal party line ones? Ive got ideas myself, but darned if I can honestly pretend they are solutions.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur mass media is completely bat shit crazy but I have no idea how to fix it.

[Newfie]

That is a good question. My SUSPICION is that it is because the MSM is ratings and profit driven. They will say almost anything to make a buck. I think there was a period when that was not so, or at least not as much as now. Early journalism was pretty damn bad then it improved for a while. Now it is bad once again.

[vtsnowedin]

I can't think of a time going all the way back to the American revolution where the press was as good as it should have been.
So everything you read or see should be taken with a full spoonful of salt and skepticism.

[Newfie]

Not sure this is the best place for this article but its an a thread and could fit.

This article discusses the supply chain “crisis” looking forward. It notes how the news is being manipulated, the line if ships outside Long Beach has diminished because they are simply loitering further off shore. Another article noted that ships off Chinas coast were turning off their AIS thereby “disappearing” from satellite monitoring.

The authors clearly think the global supply chain is in a very unstable position which at best wont fully recover for a year or more. They also postulate the chain is very susceptible to future shocks.

https://gcaptain.com/vanishing-ships-un ... -a-mirage/

When I read this I first winder how accurate it is and if to pay attention. If I do give it credence then I see it as supporting the idea that we are encroaching upon the peak(s) as described in LTG. While LTG looked at discrete indicators I think there is some merit in sort of rolling it all together, they sort of alluded to this in noting that once one indicator breaks bad the model falls apart because it is all interconnected. I see some value in looking at this combined system as denoting “complexity”.

The more people, the linger life span, the more gadgets, the more pollution, the more output all requires more complexity to keep it all in balance, the harder it is to balance. It works so that as we approach the apex the balance gets wobbly, we can adjust but then something else goes wonky. The only way to achieve balance is to reduce complexity, but that runs counter to the tenets of Capitalism.

Anyway, its an interesting read. Enjoy.

Oh, and just to keep things from getting too morose, here is an article about cream cheese and the supply chain crisis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... yed-a-part

[Doly]

I do worry about supply chains, but I don't think the LTG model is a good one to think about this particular issue. I've read that supply chains can be compared to traffic, and I wish I had a clearer idea of how the two have been connected (hopefully there is a mathematical connection, rather than just a vague metaphor). I've read studies about traffic that point out that traffic jams tend to appear suddenly, there is a "phase transition" sort of situation. If the same is true for supply chains, and supply chain blocks can appear quite suddenly, it would suggest that it isn't impossible for a serious supply chain "freeze" to appear out of the blue.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I') do worry about supply chains, but I don't think the LTG model is a good one to think about this particular issue. I've read that supply chains can be compared to traffic, and I wish I had a clearer idea of how the two have been connected (hopefully there is a mathematical connection, rather than just a vague metaphor). I've read studies about traffic that point out that traffic jams tend to appear suddenly, there is a "phase transition" sort of situation. If the same is true for supply chains, and supply chain blocks can appear quite suddenly, it would suggest that it isn't impossible for a serious supply chain "freeze" to appear out of the blue.

[Newfie]

Read and find out.

But in short LTG as looking a bigger trends, supply chain are a cog in the global machinery. So they would be a subset of the other trends like production.

I was postulating that the LTG factors when summed equate to “complexity.” The more complex the less stable.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'R')ead and find out.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Others have supposed similar things. But I'm betting that LTG and its 70's vintage "complexity" gets beat by most NASA systems that land things on other planets,

[Newfie]

Mouse,
Thank you. I had never read that description before. It is a good distinction.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')You're confusing complex with complicated. The nasa gadgets are complicated, the supply chain thingy is complex.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')A complicated system is one where there are many intricate component parts that work in a predictable and linear manner. A complicated system is where the whole is the sum of the parts and the behaviour of the system can be derived by studying the behaviour of the individual parts. Examples of a complicated system would include mechanical watches, internal combustion engines etc. These systems are linear and their behaviour can be derived analytically.

A complex system is one in which there are feedback processes that make the system non-linear in behaviour. These systems cannot be understood without looking at the whole. Example of complex systems would include the Weather (Butterfly Effect), predator prey relationships in an ecosystem, the ecosystem itself, most living systems etc.

[Pops]

Very good.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oes the LTG model in fact know anything about supply chains?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he more complex the less stable.

[jedrider]

I see nothing wrong with 'complexity'. It was never our problem as some have stated. Our problem is with the exponential. It is 'complicated' unless one understands it and, then, it is simple: We're doomed.