[rockdoc123]

Just some important information to keep in mind when talking about the eventual decline and fall of the mighty Bakken.

The estimate of original oil in place for the Bakken most quoted was that done by Leigh Price who estimated a mean OOIP of 413 billion bbls.

The USGS has estimated the amount of technically recoverable oil from the Bakken has a mean estimate of 7.4 billion bbls. That would be an ultimate recovery factor of ~1.8%

From 2008 through 2013 it is estimated that 450 million bbls had been produced from the Bakken. Given the average daily production from the Bakken there would have been an additional 1.7 billion bbls produced through to 2018. A reasonable estimate of total produced to date would thus be around 2.2 billion bbls.

What that means is that even if ultimate recovery factor is as low as what the USGS estimated (1.8%) then there is still 5.2 billion bbls yet to be produced or a little over double current production.

That being said a few years after the USGS estimate it was noted that average wells were producing at double the rate in the first year suggesting well EUR would be higher and that ultimate recovery factor would also be higher.

In 2011 a paper published in the SPE

Dechongkit, P and Prasad, 2011, M. Recovery Factor and Reserves Estimation in the Bakken Petroleum System (Analysis of the Antelope, Sanish and Parshall fields), SPE 149471

Noted mean recovery factors for the Bakken anywhere from 9% to 16%.

If we were to assume ultimate recovery factor of 6% (well below the lowest estimate of Dechongkit and Prasad, 2011) that still leaves over 20 billion bbls of oil to be produced. That number is interestingly at the low end of the estimate of ultimately recoverable reserves from the Bakken made by Continental Resources of between 20 and 40 billion bbls.

This suggests that by all accounts the Bakken is nowhere near dead.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')If we were to assume ultimate recovery factor of 6% (well below the lowest estimate of Dechongkit and Prasad, 2011) that still leaves over 20 billion bbls of oil to be produced. That number is interestingly at the low end of the estimate of ultimately recoverable reserves from the Bakken made by Continental Resources of between 20 and 40 billion bbls.

This suggests that by all accounts the Bakken is nowhere near dead.

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A') "red flag" warning in the Bakken? No, it isn't: it's a condition fully anticipated by anyone knowledgable of oil production operations. This same phenomenon has happened in every newly developed trend of water drive oil reservoirs. Early on most of the wells produce no or very little water. But as a trend continues to be developed wells drilled early on begin producing more water as they deplete. But new wells are producing more oil. But eventually the NUMBER of the older wells (with ever increasing water production) begin exceeding the number of new wells brought on line. And simple arithmetic explains why the total water production in the trend starts exceeding the total oil production. It is inevitable and always has been. And this differential can show a very big jump should the number of new wells deceases significantly. As might happen if oil prices fall and activity decreases.

[asg70]

^^^ More content-free drivel.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '^')^^ More content-free drivel.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')the Bakken is nowhere near dead.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince the best and most productive acreage mostly gets drilled first, it becomes harder and harder to grow production as time goes by and the best acreage is used up. One of the clearest signs that new wells aren't as productive as wells were in the past is the increasing amount of water (i.e. the water cut) in wells now versus wells drilled in the past.

[ROCKMAN]

P – “Increasing percentages of water and less oil in productions wells has always been a bad thing in the oil biz. Don't let anyone tell you different.” I’m not going to tell you different but will take the liberty to qualify you statement. You need to make sure you know what group of wells you’re referring to. Group A are wells drilled in the past and Group B are recently drilled wells. The A’s will be increasing in water cut as well as producing less oil. This is as predictable as the sun rising tomorrow: it has happened in every water drive reservoir ever developed.

The B’s OTHO are not as predictable. I can show you trends, such as the Frio of the Texas coastal plane, where wells drilled 30 or 40 years after it began being developed were still producing oil at the same initial rate and zero water cut as wells drilled in the 1940’s.

But here’s the tricky part: the fields developed in the 1940’s and 50’s ultimately produced 30 to 150 MILLION bbls of oil. But those recently developed fields will only cumulatively produce 30 to 150 THOUSAND bbls of oil. The timing of the development does not change the reservoir dynamics of production. Even worse: technology changes can have a very dramatic effect on that dynamic: look at the difference between the early VERTICAL Bakken wells and the more recent HORIZONTAL WELLS. In addition to much higher initial flow rates the horizontal wells will see water cuts and rate reduction occur much faster then the vertical wells. Even the more recent horizontal wells can have a significantly different production profile then earlier horizontal wells.

This can truly be a risk of comparing apples to oranges. In fact, even worse: apples vs oranges vs bananas vs watermelons. As a reservoir engineer the Rockman has spent 4 decades dealing with this phenomenon. You may be aware of these distinctions. Just wanted to keep any less informed on the right track.

[Newfie]

Apparently we are a bunch of stupes here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he situation has changed drastically -- mainly because of new technologies and the free market. President Donald Trump has just announced the official end of the oil crisis. He also hinted at the end of the miles-per-gallon [MPG] restrictions on cars and trucks.

[ROCKMAN]

Yes Newfie: just another case of the blind (or ignorant) leading the masses of blind (or ignorant). You can't even take it for granted the POTUS (and his advisors) are that ignorant: they may just be taking advantage of a technical ignorant public to sell his agenda.

[Cog]

Where does the Constitution specify the role of government is to set mpg standards? I'll wait while you look it up. The market will set the price point at which consumers will either buy or find an alternative.

[Newfie]

Case in point.

[Cog]

I'm glad I could provide it.

[AdamB]

For energy security, power is the new oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')lectricity truly is the lifeblood of modern civilization.

[jedrider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'W')here does the Constitution specify the role of government is to set mpg standards? I'll wait while you look it up. The market will set the price point at which consumers will either buy or find an alternative.

[AdamB]

US energy independence

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')imply producing more than you consume might qualify as self-sufficiency, but not true independence.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'W')here does the Constitution specify the role of government is to set mpg standards? I'll wait while you look it up. The market will set the price point at which consumers will either buy or find an alternative.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
You are arguing a nearly 2 year old post with someone who is not currently posting.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
You are arguing a nearly 2 year old post with someone who is not currently posting.