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Conservation, Doom, Madness

How to save energy through both societal and individual actions.

Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby deafskeptic » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 14:54:29

My parents stopped growing corn when they couldn't keep crows out of the corn in their organic garden.
Also as oil prices increase, you'll have a more difficult time ordering biological pesticides.

I think organic gardening is the only way to go in the future but it simply will not yield as many vegetables in the future. It'll cost more too and the vegetables won't be as attractive as the vegetables we see in store now.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby Ludi » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 15:55:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deafskeptic', '
')I think organic gardening is the only way to go in the future but it simply will not yield as many vegetables in the future. It'll cost more too and the vegetables won't be as attractive as the vegetables we see in store now.


Well, that's just not true. The Biointensive method yields are higher than industrial ag yields for vegetables.


http://www.growbiointensive.org/



These comments are very frustrating and make me sad. I feel you are well-meaning, caring people, but you are so set in your ideas, you won't accept information which is contrary to what you think you know.

Crows can be a problem with corn, they always have been. That didn't keep people from growing corn in the past. Personally, I have a lot of trouble from armadillos.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby deafskeptic » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 16:10:12

Thanks for the link. I think my parents have used some biointenisve methods (double dug raised beds and composting) and thanks for the link. There's a lot I need to learn. This looks like it'll work very well.

I am open to a lot of stuff as I'm aware there's a great deal I don't know.

I wonder if crows prefer prefer the supersweet kind of corn to the regular corn grown for corn bread and grits and such.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby Ludi » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 16:14:05

I wasn't able to grow sweet corn because racoons ate it, but I had no major "pest" or varmint problems growing field corn (specifically Tohono O'odham 60-day corn).

I hope that link will help some other folks. If I were able to help people learn more about growing food, I'd feel I was doing something of value. But here at PO.com, it doesn't go over very well, usually.... :(
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby ashurbanipal » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 20:26:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')any practitioners of organic agriculture do not experience problems with "pests" and in fact don't recognise insects as "pests" but instead as indicators of unhealthy plants.


While I practice organic agriculture in my (very large) back yard, I disagree with this notion. A plant can be perfectly healthy and still be attacked by pests (which are, by definition, organisms that attack plants that humans are trying to grow). Pests will make the plant unhealthy, and thus host to even more pests. The only way to control this process is by limiting the number of pest organisms, which in turn requires either pesticides or biological controls. Organic agriculture relies on the latter, and I have argued that there won't be enough of them to go around.

Agriculture right now has such high yields because those yields are predicated, in part, on almost NO pest organisms. We spray such toxic chemicals on our food that the pest organisms die.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')liot Coleman has organically farmed successfully for decades in Vermont and Maine without use of pesticides.


I've never heard of Elliot Coleman. But I'll take you at your word; my point is that his success, or Fukuoka's success, or Seeds of Change, or other such success stories, are not analyzed well enough. When you look at what it would take for everyone to try to follow their methods, you come quickly to understand that it just isn't going to happen. Sans fertilizers, pesticides, and water pumped via diesel engine pumps, the vast majority of Oklahoma (where I live) will become non-arable. Organic agriculture requires an immense input of manual labor, a little luck, and the right location. There aren't enough right locations to go around.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou seem to expect these methods to somehow translate to industrial agriculture scale.


I do not. I think they won't, and can't. That's my point.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy?


Because if they do not, we're in a doomer scenario. Industrial agriculture is what supports the world's population. Without it, many billions are screwed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith less petroleum, industrial style agriculture won't be possible, probably.


No, not probably. It absolutely can't.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur manner of growing food will simply have to change.


This reminds me of corporations cutting benefits but calling it a "benefits program change." Of course our methods will have to "change." Part of the "change" will entail growing about 1/6th to 1/8th less food than we grow now. Again, surely you understand the implications of this.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his doesn't seem a bizarre concept to me,


I'm glad.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'e')specially since people here on PO continually point out that in order to avoid the worst effects of peak oil our culture will have to drastically change. A basic part of our culture is how we grow food. Don't you think that would have to change too?

I don't know how I can be any plainer. Of course it must "change." Again, that change will involve growing a lot less food. Which in turn will involve many many many people starving to death.

Let me ask you, Ludi, since you seem to be someone who grows food--where do you get your water for growing? Do you ever irrigate your crops from a municipal supply? Alternately, if you're near a body of water, do you think all farms are near enough water to make it without pumping water in? What would you do if there was a drought and you couldn't pump water in? Also, do you, or did you, use any machines driven by diesel or gasoline or something else derived from hydrocarbons to help with the food you grow? Are the tools you use hand made? If you have rain barrels or water reservoirs, are they made of plastic or metal? If metal, were they hand forged or milled? Do you grow heirloom or open-pollenated crops and save your seed year to year? How do you isolate your plants? Do you use plastic cages? What do you store your seed in? To ensure viability, do you put them in the icebox? Could you rebuild your refrigerator with materials you could find locally, in your fields? Could you do so without electricity? If you were to be transplanted to, say, Alberta Canada, would you be able to have the same growing season without some 6-mil plastic? Do you have any biological controls (like Praying Mantis egg cases, ladybugs, beneficial nematodes or bacteria or fungi) shipped to you to help your garden? What about bees? Have you ever? Have you ever cleared an overgrown plot by hand, without the use of any kind of machinery other than those driven by your own exertions or the exertions of animals? Have you raised those animals without the use of antibiotics, vaccinations, etc. which are usually prepared in labs powered by hydrocarbon generated electricity?

These aren't idle questions, and if you can answer them all, I've got hundreds more. I'm not trying to be insulting or rude; but I want there to be complete honesty in this conversation. The point I'm making is that the organic farmers that get their favorable-sounding yields do so with lots of petroleum inputs, lots of free labor, water that's pumped via a municipal and petroleum driven water distribution system, etc. etc. Moreover, the fertilizer and pesticides/ biological controls they use are shipped to them via power generated by petroleum. None of that will be an option at some point post-peak. Let me repeat that: NONE OF THAT WILL BE AN OPTION AT SOME POINT POST-PEAK. The studies that report yields similar to non-organic agriculture assume certain infrastructure remaining in place, but global oil peak will gradually take that infrastructure away. Once that happens, those yields will sink to pre-industrial levels. Now, if you've got serious suggestions about replacing those inputs post-peak, I'd love to hear them. But absent solid ideas, I would maintain that there are reasons why, prior to the industrial revolution, there was quite a bit less arable land than there is now. There are solid reasons why yields were as low as they were.

Right now, I'm begining the process of figuring out how to create a completely sustainable agriculture in Central Oklahoma. What I'm learning is that basically everything that's been written about sustainable methods are horse puckey. Organic farmers still harvest their grain with combines, and spread fish emulsion with gasoline powered machines. Take that away, and those farmers will be able to grow much, much less.

Have I made my point clear yet? Is this starting to sink in? When you go out into your garden/ field/ whatever next year, try to cultivate using nothing that gets shipped to you, no tools that you didn't make by hand from materials you personally found, and using no machines that are powered by anything other than nuclear/ wind/ solar power. Maybe then, you'll begin to get my drift. We won't be reduced to that overnight post-peak. But we will eventually come to that, or very close to it. The challenge is to figure out what to do from that starting line. Because, make no mistake, that will be the starting line. I expect the starting pistol to go off sometime soon.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby Ludi » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 21:04:12

What the HELL is your problem ashurbanipal?

Just give the fuck up and die, see if I give a rat's ass.

God damn it to hell.

If you insist on staying so fucking ignorant, that's your choice.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby Seadragon » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 21:11:54

This thread is certainly living up to its title...
Exporting oil is an act of treason"-- Heitor Manoel Pereira, president of AEPET in Brazil, January 06, 2006
come see me sometime... http://www.sonofchaos.blogspot.com/
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby Ludi » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 21:19:46

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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby Seadragon » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 21:30:22

Very nice, thank you for the references!
Exporting oil is an act of treason"-- Heitor Manoel Pereira, president of AEPET in Brazil, January 06, 2006
come see me sometime... http://www.sonofchaos.blogspot.com/
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby Ludi » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 21:31:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Seadragon', 'V')ery nice, thank you for the references!


You're welcome. I hope they help.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby Ludi » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 21:51:24

No, I'm too tired. I'm tired of being treated like a moron by ignorant people.

All of those questions have been covered at length in the books I listed in the link.

If people are unwilling to learn about their field of interest, I can't help them.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby rogerhb » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 22:27:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'T')hus the human biomass.


Ah, so no shortage of fuel then.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby JohnDenver » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 23:10:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ashurbanipal', ' ')Sans fertilizers, pesticides, and water pumped via diesel engine pumps, the vast majority of Oklahoma (where I live) will become non-arable.


The U.S. is not going to run out of fertilizers and pesticides any time soon because both can be made with coal.

Fertilizer can also be made from hydrogen, generated by nuclear, solar, wind or hydro.

Water can be pumped with electricity generated by coal, nuclear, solar or wind.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')et me ask you, Ludi, since you seem to be someone who grows food--where do you get your water for growing? Do you ever irrigate your crops from a municipal supply? Alternately, if you're near a body of water, do you think all farms are near enough water to make it without pumping water in?


They can (and often do) pump water with electricity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat would you do if there was a drought and you couldn't pump water in? Also, do you, or did you, use any machines driven by diesel or gasoline or something else derived from hydrocarbons to help with the food you grow? Are the tools you use hand made? If you have rain barrels or water reservoirs, are they made of plastic or metal? If metal, were they hand forged or milled? Do you grow heirloom or open-pollenated crops and save your seed year to year? How do you isolate your plants? Do you use plastic cages? What do you store your seed in? To ensure viability, do you put them in the icebox? Could you rebuild your refrigerator with materials you could find locally, in your fields? Could you do so without electricity? If you were to be transplanted to, say, Alberta Canada, would you be able to have the same growing season without some 6-mil plastic? Do you have any biological controls (like Praying Mantis egg cases, ladybugs, beneficial nematodes or bacteria or fungi) shipped to you to help your garden? What about bees? Have you ever? Have you ever cleared an overgrown plot by hand, without the use of any kind of machinery other than those driven by your own exertions or the exertions of animals? Have you raised those animals without the use of antibiotics, vaccinations, etc. which are usually prepared in labs powered by hydrocarbon generated electricity?


Peak oil means higher petroleum prices. It doesn't mean an instantaneous end to all energy. People need to prepare for higher prices, not an asteroid strike.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hese aren't idle questions, and if you can answer them all, I've got hundreds more.


Yah, and they're all just as dumb as the one's you've already given. Here's two clues for you:
a) Oil is not the only source of energy or feedstock
b) Peak oil is not going to cause a halt to all energy production.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby ashurbanipal » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 23:10:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat the HELL is your problem ashurbanipal?

Just give the fuck up and die, see if I give a rat's ass.

God damn it to hell.

If you insist on staying so fucking ignorant, that's your choice.


My problem is your problem. It's everyone's problem. I'm not giving up. I'm asking that the problem be understood. If you have no actual response to my post, then say so.

Perhaps I'm ignorant, anyway. You're not doing anything to enlighten me with such invective, however. I understand you posted some stuff intended to educate me. I had questions. You didn't answer them. All these are verifiable facts. I cannot speak for you. But if I am ever trying to offer a point of view, and someone asks me something for which I have no answer, in my heart, I know that I am the ignorant one.

Wisdom, it has been remarked, begins in questioning.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby rogerhb » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 23:20:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ashurbanipal', 'W')isdom, it has been remarked, begins in questioning.


What? :roll:
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby Gary » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 23:26:13

Robert Waldrop from Oklahoma City did a presentation called "Pathways to Local Food Systems" at the Community Solutions Peak Oil Conference recently. You can link to info about it here:

http://www.communitysolution.org/

I think it is a good idea to be active and planning and working with folks in your own area. There sure are no complete solutions or easy answers. We are likley to see a fair amount of suffering before we learn how to live sustainably.

We've spent much time assuming that nature has an inexhaustable supply of resources to draw from and that nature also is an infinite sink for our waste. We may or may not grow through to a deeper understanding of how we fit in.

But as far as doing our part, I think we can only "bloom where we are planted" and live as authentically as possible.

As for the technical farming and agriculture stuff, it seems best to seek out people in your bio-region and local community to work with.

-- Just my two cents worth.....
pedaling for peace and ecojustice -- Gary
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby ashurbanipal » Sun 06 Nov 2005, 23:26:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. is not going to run out of fertilizers and pesticides any time soon because both can be made with coal.


More energy intensively, but yes. This is correct. It won't be forever, and it's certainly not going to cover our fertilizer needs worldwide. I think urea has a better chance, actually. But, again, in the short term, you're right.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ertilizer can also be made from hydrogen, generated by nuclear, solar, wind or hydro.


As I understand the state of the technology so far, it's quite a bit more expensive to do so, and the process can't be scaled up quickly. Again, you're correct, but doing so would make food horribly expensive. Hey, maybe someone will come up with that proverbial invention that's going to save us, eh?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ater can be pumped with electricity generated by coal, nuclear, solar or wind.


Converting our current systems, however, will take many billions--if not trillions--of dollars. Have you got that kind of change lying around? Does anyone?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey can (and often do) pump water with electricity.


Do you have any good data?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil means higher petroleum prices. It doesn't mean an instantaneous end to all energy. People need to prepare for higher prices, not an asteroid strike.

I don't mean to suggest that it will all happen instantaneously. But this kind of "change" will happen. We need to be prepared for that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ah, and they're all just as dumb as the one's you've already given.

1) If they're so dumb, then you, Ludi, or one of the people who agree with you could answer them easily.
2) You haven't heard them anyway. The fact you assume they'd be dumb (or at least consistent with what I have already asked) leads me to wonder what other assumptions you make in the place of looking at facts.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')) Oil is not the only source of energy or feedstock
b) Peak oil is not going to cause a halt to all energy production.

Of course not. Who said that? It's only something like 85% of all current energy and feedstock (my estimate, anyway). No worries, then.

Look, I'm not saying anyone should give up. But I'm afraid I see a lot of people not willing to face the full scope of the issue. We must do that first, and then we can work on solutions.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby JohnDenver » Mon 07 Nov 2005, 01:43:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ashurbanipal', 'I')t's only something like 85% of all current energy and feedstock (my estimate, anyway).


Oil accounts for about 35% of total world primary energy production. (From the DOE's Annual Energy Review, 2004).

Oil makes a 0% contribution as a fertilizer feedstock. Virtually all fertilizer is made, at the present time, from natural gas. According to Laherrere, NG will not be peaking globally until around 2030.
http://www.peakoil.net/JL/JeanL.html

Non-fuel use of petroleum (plastics, motor oils, lubricants) can be greatly mitigated by recycling. Motor oil, for example, does not wear out, and can be cleaned and recycled indefinitely.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby Ibon » Mon 07 Nov 2005, 02:11:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')aybe lots of motivation, but few jobs due to conservation, deflation, and a lack of capital for investment with less than zero for a savings rate. We would have to borrow from the Chinese to fund the transition or hyperinflate the currency by printing it.


Can you tell me why we wouldn't find a way to "recapture" the vast amount of monies going into the oil sector? I mean, that money does have to go somewhere, right?

But oil money or no, I think printing dollars to pay for massive alternative energy projects will be the way to go...inflation be damned. Solves the peasky problem of all those danged mortgage and debt payments, too. Another thing that I see that the US might attempt doing is convincing other major economies (Japan, Europe) to inflate their currencies in lockstep with ours, creating some sort of "false equibrium" that could enable the transition off of fossil fuels even in the face of global economic contraction.



(Just trying to put an optimistic spin on things, is all :-D )


Another optimistic spin on printing dollars and devaluing further the currency is that we simply wont be able to afford imported goods. This could help reinforce local regional economies, reduce consumerism and reduce oil consumption. There are some positives associated with economic recession and the US dollar collapse in restructuring our economy more local and in perhaps allowing alternative value systems to consumerism to take hold.
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Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness

Postby aldente » Mon 07 Nov 2005, 05:10:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ashurbanipal', '"')Doomers" are often called such because the scenarios they envision and argue as likely involve a massive die-off. Optimists want to eliminate such a possibility, but the question that presents itself is how it can be anything more than forestalled.

What both parties have in common is their ability to sense the the future.

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