Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing base

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing base

Unread postby Euric » Mon 27 Mar 2006, 01:01:13

http://europa.eu.int/comm/enterprise/en ... dex_en.htm

http://www.euractiv.com/Article?tcmuri= ... &type=News


The links above connect to a site that shows how the EU is moving into the direction of promoting the EU as a centre of manufacturing despite the global efforts to send this type of work to the third world.

Whereas the US will continue to export its manufacturing base, the EU sees this as folly. It knows that the service jobs that Americans seem to love don't provide the path to a prosperous future. Service jobs eventually lead to poverty. The pay and benefits just are not there.

I found this part quite interesting:

In Short:

Service orientation is a fine thing, but Europe needs manufacturing
to remain competitive and wealthy, industry spokesmen and Commission
officials at the European Business Summit agreed.

Brief News:

Manufacturing industry accounts for 75% of the EU's exports and for
80% of private research and development spending, said Gert Jan
Koopman, Director for Industrial Policy and Economic Reforms in DG
Enterprise. Koopman was speaking as a member of the panel
entitled "European Industrial base: Dead loss or new start?" at the
European Business Summit, held in Brussels on 16 - 17 March 2006.

In addition, manufacturing provides for better-paid, higher-qualified
jobs than most services trades, added Professor Robert Sugden of
Birmingham University, citing the example of workers laid off at
Rover plants in the English Midlands who, according to a recent
survey, are discontented with their new jobs in service industries
like lorry-driving, which they perceive to be less interesting and
worse paid.


Of course as the US continues to expect itself to be subsidized by petrodollars and continue to measure its increased deficit spending as growth, the EU will grow in real terms by producing and earning from what it produces. In the long term the EU countries will be the real winners.
User avatar
Euric
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 622
Joined: Sat 04 Dec 2004, 04:00:00

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby Raxozanne » Mon 27 Mar 2006, 03:01:56

Meanwhile China just laughs chanting "anything you can make, we can make cheaper...."
Raxozanne
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 945
Joined: Thu 24 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Location: UK

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby lateStarter » Mon 27 Mar 2006, 04:27:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'M')eanwhile China just laughs chanting "anything you can make, we can make cheaper...."


That will continue to be true for the short term, however, eventually at some point, transportation costs will have a much greater effect on price and the advantage of cheap labor will be gone. At that time, countries that still have a substantial manufacturing base will be in a much better position than places that have switched to service based economies.

For that reason, I try to buy local even if it costs a bit more.
User avatar
lateStarter
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1058
Joined: Wed 06 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: 38 km west of Warsaw, Poland

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby Doly » Mon 27 Mar 2006, 05:19:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '
')That will continue to be true for the short term, however, eventually at some point, transportation costs will have a much greater effect on price and the advantage of cheap labor will be gone.


It will depend on the weight of the product. I suspect the advantage will remain for clothes, for example. If it was worth in the Middle Ages to bring silk from China, it will still be worth it to import clothes post peak.
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4370
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 27 Mar 2006, 11:37:11

Yes, the European markets sure a model of integration and efficiency as they provide a united front against global competition. Especially France, who's motto seems to be 'competition is good so long as our national champion is the undisputed leader and no one plays in our own backyard.'
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')UNDAY, MARCH 5, 2006


PARIS As French officials defend the deal they brokered to keep the French utility Suez out of Italian hands, another, potentially broader clash with the European Union over energy is just getting under way. This one, involving antitrust issues, could determine to what extent European countries like France are able to refashion their national champions to exert greater control over European energy markets.

Within weeks, the French authorities are expected to ask the European antitrust authorities for permission to merge Suez, which provides electricity, waste and water services, with Gaz de France, the dominant French natural gas company. The deal would create the world's largest utility by sales in a country that already includes one of the world's most valuable electricity companies, Électricité de France.

Opponents, including some big power users in heavy industry, are already pushing the European Union's competition commissioner, Neelie Kroes, to scrutinize, and perhaps even block, the French deal on the grounds that it could set back efforts to break down national barriers in the energy sector.

"The EU should not be allowing consolidation in markets like energy where we haven't even established competition yet," said Jeremy Nicholson, the director of the Energy Intensive Users Group, which is based in London and includes the aluminum company Alcan and the industrial gases company BOC.

But any attempt by Kroes to block the deal would be difficult, lawyers say, because she might need to show that remedies would not repair a loss of competition in the sector, or that there would be the potential for the newly merged company and the other big player in France, EDF, to coordinate their strategies. EU courts have been skeptical about such theories.

In fact, the markets of the merging companies, Suez and GDF, overlap very little, said Colette Lewiner, a senior vice president at Capgemini in Paris. But GDF and Suez "could have been competitors without the merger," she said, because GDF has ambitions to get into the electricity business.

But the deal could still be "a plus for competition if Suez and GDF bundle their offerings to give customers like industry better offerings, perhaps in the form of a single bill for electricity, gas and water," she said. She also called the political outcry against the deal in parts of Europe somewhat hypocritical, particularly since gas and electric companies in Spain and Germany have been allowed to merge.

According to International Oil Daily, the new entity would be the second largest utility in Europe, after Électricité de France, and ahead of the German utility E.ON. But E.ON would take the top spot if it succeeds in its bid for Endesa, a Spanish power company.

A major difference in the French case is that Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin announced the deal on Feb. 25, contributing to the perception that state-led protectionism is on the rise.

Some smaller players in France even see potential advantages to the deal.

"The good news is that existing competitors become an even better alternative for customers - especially if the EU forces them to sell assets in France and Belgium that we can then buy," said Charles Beigbeder, the chief executive of the French power company Poweo.

"The bad news," Beigbeder acknowledged, "is that we will have two giants very close to the French state seeking to regulate tariffs and with the potential to set back liberalization."

The French deal is already the subject of a European Union investigation into suspected actions by the French to stop a rival Italian bid for Suez. During the competition inquiry, the EU will ask whether the French merger would mean higher prices and fewer new entrants in a market that it regards as malfunctioning.

Jonathan Todd, a spokesman for Kroes, said that the EU expected to review the deal because Suez does a significant amount business beyond France, notably in Belgium.

The French authorities are expected to argue that the merger is a legitimate measure to help guarantee energy security at a time when prices are volatile and steady supplies of gas from countries like Russia - which supplies a quarter of European energy needs - are in doubt.

At first glance, a merger between Suez and Gaz de France would also appear to create a stronger potential competitor to EDF. EDF has long been a nemesis of EU regulators because of the way it kept a lock on competition at home while pursuing aggressive moves into neighboring markets. But critics like Nicholson said it would be naïve to expect the French government to expose either company to greater competition. The government controls EDF through a holding and would still control GDF through a one- third holding after a merger with Suez.

"Back in the real world one must recognize that the French government will be calling many of the shots," Nicholson said about the management of EDF and Suez-GDF.

Breaking open cozy national arrangements in energy markets is supposedly an important goal for Kroes, the EU competition commissioner, who has staked her tenure on new companies' being able to offer better prices to customers and holds some leverage over merger. Besides requiring the French to sell some holdings in Belgium, the European Union could also require access to gas distribution networks to allow entrants into the market. But proving that a merged Suez-GDF could cooperate with EDF as a duopoloy could be much harder.

Meanwhile, despite protests from the Italians and skeptical comments from the German chancellery minister, Thomas de Maiziere, over the weekend, the French seem determined to press forward with the deal.

Gaz de France's chief executive, Jean- François Cirelli, told Europe 1 radio on Saturday that a major rationale for the merger was to allow the state to continue determining strategy and setting prices.

"Let's not play with words," Cirelli said. "The state will still have considerable influence in this sector because it's a strategic sector."



French merger bid creates EU paradox

Perhaps if the EU members wanted a real common market they might allow free movement of citizens, and make sure their power grids and rail links were 100% interconnected. How long have they been trying to get it right now? Since 1957? ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby Kingcoal » Mon 27 Mar 2006, 12:23:03

When I was a kid in the late sixties and early seventies, I remember seeing educational films in school talking about the global economy. The position of the US as export leader and standard of living leader was seen as unsustainable. Back then, we had over half the world’s wealth and only 3% of its population. The prediction was that Japan and other highly motivated countries would take over more and more of the manufacturing base. That meant that we (the youth) had to go to college and become professionals because the current (at the time) situation of union laborers making more money than most college graduates was not going to last. Boy were they right! Contrary to the doomers, America didn’t go off into the sunset, America has continued to boom. That doesn’t mean that along the way, many were left to find different places to apply their skills. Poor babies.

America has not exported its entire manufacturing base; food production, defense, medical and other critical industries remain in the US. Commercial manufacturing (TVs, PCs, etc) have for the most part gone where the markets have led them. It's not a bad thing; in fact it's overall a good thing. Third world countries need to raise their standard of living and in the process become a new dollar customer. In regards to peak oil, getting out of the business of making automobiles should be next. I define a low skill job as one that requires no formal education outside of high school. The US still has plenty of high paying, low skill jobs in the construction industries, heating and cooling, pipe fitting, plumbing, etc. There are still a lot of medium skill jobs such as electricians, electronic technicians, etc. Software is threatened by India and China, but there are still plenty of niches where a programmer is needed. For instance, I am a software consultant and my earning capacity locally is dismal. However, if I travel, I can make several times as much as I can locally. I know many programmers who are unwilling to travel to job sites and thus have tremendously reduced earning power because they are left with software jobs that can be done in India or China and have to compete with programmers in those countries.

In other words, protecting jobs in the long run is just delaying the inevitable. Better to look at how you can fit into the new state of affairs when your current job goes overseas. You’ll find as I have and many others have, that you’ll end up much better off than before.
User avatar
Kingcoal
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2149
Joined: Wed 29 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Pennsylvania, USA

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 29 Mar 2006, 03:51:30

Kingcoal you may be interested in this article on competition in the EU. I reprint it in its entirety because it is password protected.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')T MAY be spring, but the atmosphere in Brussels this week is markedly frosty. As leaders of the European Union’s member countries gathered to issue platitudes about the “Lisbon agenda” and discuss the prospects for reform on the continent, a row about economic nationalism looked set to dominate. Wolfgang Schüssel, the president of Austria, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, might have yearned for a more consensual gathering. After all, analysts hoping for European economic recovery have had quite a few good signs to hang their optimism on recently.

Confidence is nudging upwards in some of the bigger economies. On Wednesday France’s finance minister, Thierry Breton, predicted French growth in 2006 will be higher—above 2%—than last year’s dismal 1.4%. Consumer spending has been strong in France and may yet rebound in (otherwise rather stagnant) Italy. Britain’s finance minister Gordon Brown also delivered his annual budget this week and suggested long-running expansion will continue there, with growth likely to top 2% this year too. Even Germany is looking distinctly perky, with consumer confidence and business sentiment rising in recent months.

But Mr Schüssel was bound to be disappointed. Europe’s politicians have been getting agitated about cross-border mergers, after a number of high-profile takeover attempts in industries like energy and banking. Italy—where prime minister Silvio Berlusconi is seeking re-election—is fuming over a French government attempt to merge energy and water firm Suez with another French energy company in order to keep Enel, an Italian energy giant, from buying it. Adding insult to injury, the French government has announced plans to use a state-owned investment vehicle to block future foreign takeovers. EU officials are scrutinising the French actions in case they have broken rules on the free movement of capital.

This week the Italians tried to persuade fellow EU governments to sign an open letter denouncing protectionism, in a swipe at France. Though Denmark, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovakia and Sweden all confirmed they had been approached to sign the letter, all chose not to do so. Nonetheless, the row is likely to splutter on. The Spanish, too, are drawing fire for trying to engineer a similar domestic deal in order to keep German firm E.ON away from Spain’s Endesa.

None of this is encouraging for other efforts to break down national borders and integrate Europe’s markets, for example in energy. José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, is strongly pushing for a single integrated market, rather than the current 25 “mini-markets”. A single one should allow for more competition between energy firms, more effective distribution of gas and other energy supplies and could allow for importers to negotiate with suppliers as a single block—potentially pushing down import prices. As the summit drew to a close on Friday, the ministers announced that they had agreed to the outlines of a draft proposal on the energy market that aims to give the EU a more unified voice in negotiating with external suppliers and reduce its vulnerability to supply shocks. But the issue of cross-border mergers remains unresolved.



Europe's insiders and outsiders
Nor is there much reason to hope that individual countries will introduce other much needed economic reforms of their own accord. Europe’s governments have been hopelessly slow at reforming their economies. The streets of France have been filled with huge protests against a new labour contract. In Germany public-sector workers have staged a series of protest marches over pay. Even Britain, which has reformed its economy more than most, will next week see a big demonstration against public-sector pension changes. And in Italy’s rancorous election campaign, both government and opposition have been too fearful of voters to talk about the radical reforms that the country needs.

Europeans have been fighting not just against new labour laws but also against energy liberalisation and the opening of markets to migrant labourers from central Europe—the much discussed “Polish plumber”. They have also resisted freer trade in services. The services directive, which was supposed to let services flow across the borders the way goods already do, is unlikely to achieve that vision. After long wrangling, last month a deal was announced that would substantially weaken its force.

But something else obstructs would-be reformers in Europe. This is an acute case of a particular economic complaint: the excessive protection of insiders at the expense of outsiders. In Europe, insiders have permanent jobs with nigh-impregnable security, high wages, guaranteed pensions and a still generous welfare state that they know how to exploit. They are more often male, middle-aged and white than female, young or from ethnic minorities. Many work in the public sector. Others, such as shopkeepers, taxi drivers, lawyers or pharmacists, are insulated from competition by a web of regulations. Outsiders have none of these benefits.

Worse, the few reforms that have been made have often left insiders largely untouched. France’s new job contract is only for the young—and, if the government offers more concessions, it may not even help them much—while insiders will keep all their old job security. Too many labour-law changes have created two-tier markets, with an inner tier remaining protected but an outer one on temporary or short-term contracts. Pension reforms have often stopped when they reach sensitive bits of the public sector. And some governments have tried only to change welfare systems and labour laws, which is necessary if unemployment is to be reduced but can also create insecurity and drive down consumer spending. They have neglected the vital accompanying task of injecting more competition into protected industries and services, which would both create jobs and cut costs.

All this keeps economies inflexible. One outcome is the high unemployment of France and Germany. But another case is Italy, where plenty of temporary jobs have been created, but protected insiders have continued to win big wage increases. Italy has reduced unemployment, but rising unit labour costs are squeezing firms out of markets, a big cause both of slow economic growth and of demands for trade barriers.

And in the end, it will not work. If it were possible always to insulate insiders, there might be a better argument for doing it. In Germany, for example, businesses have temporarily cut costs and regained competitiveness without ending the insider/outsider split. But they have done it without creating more jobs at home, so unemployment remains high. Thus, even in Germany the pressure of global competition is such that insiders cannot be protected from it for ever. The only real options are to accept change now, or to defer it until economies get into such straits that change is forced.

The Economist March 25th 2006
Thanks for the good points you made. You forgot one highly paid trade that only requires a high school education though? Movie star! ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby lateStarter » Wed 29 Mar 2006, 04:35:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '
')That will continue to be true for the short term, however, eventually at some point, transportation costs will have a much greater effect on price and the advantage of cheap labor will be gone.


It will depend on the weight of the product. I suspect the advantage will remain for clothes, for example. If it was worth in the Middle Ages to bring silk from China, it will still be worth it to import clothes post peak.


It is interesting that you chose 'silk' in your example. I have no doubt that as tranportatiion costs rise (and ultimately increase the final cost to the consumer) luxury items will still continue to be profitable in the short term. The price difference will matter little to the people who can afford them. On the otherhand, just as I doubt there were many peasants buying 'silk' shirts in the Middle-Ages, I think most of us will be buying less and less imported items even if they are available.

I'm also not sure what weight has to do with it... 50 tons of clothes transported by container ship from China to Europe is the same as 50 tons of plasma screen tvs. Once the ship unloads at Rotterdam, all the stuff gets distributed by truck across Europe. The people in Poland who can afford a new Plasma screen tv are not going to wince at the markup due to rising fuel costs. The people buying cheap shoes or clothes at Tesco or Geant are going to think twice. The required markup on the cheap items will me more noticeable to people with very little disposable income. At some point, as costs continue to rise, the company that makes shoes or clothes in Poland will be able to compete with the imported stuff. That assumes that the manufacturing capability still exists of course!
User avatar
lateStarter
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1058
Joined: Wed 06 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: 38 km west of Warsaw, Poland
Top

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 29 Mar 2006, 08:13:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')quote="lateStarter]
It is interesting that you chose 'silk' in your example. I have no doubt that as tranportatiion costs rise (and ultimately increase the final cost to the consumer) luxury items will still continue to be profitable in the short term. The price difference will matter little to the people who can afford them. On the otherhand, just as I doubt there were many peasants buying 'silk' shirts in the Middle-Ages, I think most of us will be buying less and less imported items even if they are available.

I'm also not sure what weight has to do with it... 50 tons of clothes transported by container ship from China to Europe is the same as 50 tons of plasma screen tvs. Once the ship unloads at Rotterdam, all the stuff gets distributed by truck across Europe. The people in Poland who can afford a new Plasma screen tv are not going to wince at the markup due to rising fuel costs. The people buying cheap shoes or clothes at Tesco or Geant are going to think twice. The required markup on the cheap items will me more noticeable to people with very little disposable income. At some point, as costs continue to rise, the company that makes shoes or clothes in Poland will be able to compete with the imported stuff. That assumes that the manufacturing capability still exists of course!


Several points to add if I may?

First, clothing has become ridiculously inexpensive. In an affluent society, clothing durability has nothing to with longevity and everything to do with fads & fashions. I may wear a t-shirt or jeans or a sweat shirt for 10-15-20 years, but my wife certainly will not.

As clothes rise in price in absolute terms relative to incomes we will simply start to be much more aware of quality and will not be throwing away perfectly good articles of clothing. Ditto for everything else we currently throw away because we cannot be bothered to keep it or have it altered or fixed. In fact many consumer goods can no longer be fixed, so they are designed to be thrown away.

As goods become more expensive consumer preferences will switch to items that hold their value and can be repaired and used again. That is an example of creeping normality. We became a throw away society in part because energy was so cheap and we had sources of cheap labor located far away at the other end of the world. Post peak oil the balance point in that equation will change.

Secondly, prices of manufactured goods have been coming down in absolute prices making them more affordable to everyone. I am amazed to watch any 24-hour news channel covering events around the world and see 'well-dressed poor people'. It is rare to see children in rags anymore.* Even in primitive tribes it is not unusual to see t-shirts, ball caps, jeans, shoes, etc. that would not look out of place in our own malls. That is how cheap these things have become.

*Distribution in sub-Sahara Africa may be a problem, but I believe that is not related to clothing being too expensive? As a matter of fact African farmers might argue that subsidies to rich world farmers is making cotton too cheap?

Of course, this marginal demand will be the first to disappear and these low income/marginal earners will feel the changes first. That is the downside of demand destruction. However, just the like the Babuschka who judges the change from communism to capitalism as a failure because the price of bread rose from 2 kopecks to 10 cents a loaf we cannot make policy based on goods & services delivered to the market at less than their true cost in terms of energy, resources, labor and return on capital. In the long run that is a waste of resources. Pre peak oil we had resources to waste, post peak oil that will be a luxury society cannot afford. The price of any good must reflect its true costs including recycling, reclamation and disposal. Any good sold below its true cost is a waste of resources and that is a subsidy. Any subsidy increases demand higher than what it should normally be. Post peak oil = demand destruction = less

But in terms of trade, any good that does not have an adequate subsitute will be traded based on comparative advantage between producers and consumers. Post peak oil plasma television sets may have very little intrinsic value if people a) cannot afford them; or b) the content is not there or it does not pay to produce content; or c) people are working longer hours and have no time to watch TV; or d) it costs more to produce them then they can be profitably sold for to consumers with less discretionary spending?

However, all societies will be struggling to cope with post peak oil realities, so they will continue to produce what they can with the resources they have, like surplus or under utlitized labor, and be trying to sell or trade those goods for what they need. Post peak oil will not mean the end of commerce. Post peak oil will make commerce more difficult, more expensive in real terms and in some cases less efficient. That will result in lower standards of living for both the buyer and the seller and the producer and the consumer. In otherwords, living standards will go down regardless of where the means of production are located and what is traded for what.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby lateStarter » Wed 29 Mar 2006, 08:55:43

MrBill wrote: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n otherwords, living standards will go down regardless of where the means of production are located and what is traded for what.


I agree. My original point however was that once 'stuff' becomes less available for whatever reason (not just more expensive) it would be somewhat advantageous to still have basic manufacturing capability - especially for things that will be essential. Even if you weren't making 'stuff' that will be viewed as more essential in the future, you could probably start to retool and at least the basic manufactuing mentality would still exist. How many bicycle manufacturers still exist in the US?
User avatar
lateStarter
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1058
Joined: Wed 06 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: 38 km west of Warsaw, Poland
Top

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 30 Mar 2006, 03:09:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'M')rBill wrote: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n otherwords, living standards will go down regardless of where the means of production are located and what is traded for what.


I agree. My original point however was that once 'stuff' becomes less available for whatever reason (not just more expensive) it would be somewhat advantageous to still have basic manufacturing capability - especially for things that will be essential. Even if you weren't making 'stuff' that will be viewed as more essential in the future, you could probably start to retool and at least the basic manufactuing mentality would still exist. How many bicycle manufacturers still exist in the US?


Don't get me wrong, manufacturing is still important, but looks can be deceiving. If a manufacturing activity can be offshored to somewhere cheaper then that is an macro economic plus. It is better than having underemployed labor in one place and a loss making factory somewhere else.

I think at one point Germany was subsidizing each coal miner in that country to the tune of DEM28.000 per year for example. The coal is still there. When it becomes more cost effective you can still go dig it up. There is no point extracting it at a loss when the price is low.

But the technology and know how does not disappear. One of my former clients was Giant bicycle. As you know many mountain biking innovations do come from the USA and especially California. It does not matter where those bikes are eventually mass assembled. It is the know how and the culture of innovation that count.

A friend of mine is an engineer for Intel. He designs factories to make chips. Then based on economic fundamentals they decide to put that factory in Ireland, Israel, Shanghai or the USA. The chip making know how and the expertise to build factories is in head office not in the factory.

I used to live in Munich. A truly wonderful city. Many world class companies are located there. Siemens, BMW and Osram to name just a few. But again they may locate their manufacturing activities elsewhere to take advantage of favorable tax treatment in places like in Vicegrad countries where skilled labor is cheaper and the tax treatment lighter.

You may bristle at the thought of a race to the bottom, but why is a job in Germany more important than a job in Slovakia, Hungary, Poland or the Czech Republic? They are all in the EU now. Secondly, why should German companies pay higher taxes in Germany, if they feel they are not getting a good deal? Personally, I feel that a company's only leverage with over aggressive unions and with prolithic governments is their ability to relocate if necessary. I would never relocate a company to France, despite France being a wonderful country. The labor and politics is simply too business unfriendly. The Czech Republic is so much better and Prague is equally as nice as Paris.

The quality of life in Germany for example is very high by any standard, but it is also a very high tax environment for companies and employment is high due to structural rigidities. Only when the German people and German politicians see jobs going abroad will they face up to needed changes to keep productivity per worker at worldclass highs, which by the way seems to be happening now. Also Germany is making it easier for entrepreneurs to start businesses with less red tape, and finally addressing Germany's creaking, outdated secondary education system. If you're only willing to work 38 hours a week, you take 6-weeks of vacation per year and you demand some of the highest salaries in Europe/the world, you better be productive or not?

Germany has already lost many 'Mittelstand' companies, it remains to be seen whether this is too little too late? Whether new companies can grow-up to take their place? Otherwise you will have well paying management jobs in head office and fewer manufacturing jobs in Germany. That is good for the recipient country, but not as good for social harmony in Germany. Sure it is difficult to fire you, so we just won't hire you in the first place. There goes all that job security!

By the way, I chose Germany because it is the economic powerhouse of Europe, and the world's largest manufacturing exporter, to prove you can have high standards of living, high real wages and be competitive at the sametime. Believe me the situation in Italy is much worse from a compartive advantage point of view. And as we have seen recently, Italy, France and others are more interested in keeping the status quo and sheltering their domestic industry from competition than they are in addressing the underlying problems of unemployment and creating efficient companies and industries.

But by the way, back to your original statement. The USA is still the world's largest manufacturer. They just happen to import a lot of junk, too.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Unread postby CARVER » Thu 30 Mar 2006, 06:43:53

MrBill, doesn't comparative advantage only work if capital doesn't become mobile as well? So that we have to choose between freedom of movement of capital or of goods, we can't have both and still derive the benefits of international trade?
User avatar
CARVER
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 396
Joined: Thu 19 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Holland

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 30 Mar 2006, 08:03:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', 'M')rBill, doesn't comparative advantage only work if capital doesn't become mobile as well? So that we have to choose between freedom of movement of capital or of goods, we can't have both and still derive the benefits of international trade?


Comparative advantage means that we each choose to do what we're good at, or what we want to do, or what we can do, and then we trade the goods & services we have for the ones we want.

For example, you can go to work or you can stay home and clean your house. You may be good at both. But you cannot do both. Therefore, if you choose to go to work, you have to pay someone else to clean your house. It does not matter that you are better than them at cleaning, what matters is that you earn more going to work than staying at home to clean your house.

Mobility of capital works on several different levels simultaneously. On one level primary deposits are collected at the local level, through your Sparkasse or Caisse Depot, and are re-lent locally. If there are surplus funds leftover to lend, the bank or financial institution may lend those funds to other banks via the Interbank market. They may have only credit limits set-up for other Dutch banks or they may have also limits set-up for Brazilian banks, too. If they have limits for a Turkish bank, then those surplus local funds may end up in Turkey. If not, they may go to another Dutch bank and stay in Holland.

Now a certain percentage of funds does goes looking for the highest yields possible. They may find those yields in Turkey or Brazil or somewhere else? But, of course, the higher the yield the higher the potential risk of default. The person or company or bank that borrows from the local Dutch Bank has a liability to repay. If they lend that money somewhere else and lose it they still have to repay that liability.

So funds do not always go to where they earn the most interest. Capital security matters to individuals, companies and banks as well. Sometimes we forgo potential profits or higher yields to maintain a steady or predictable risk profile. In this respect some cash in the system is sticky. It is not mobile at all. Current accounts that pay next to nothing in terms of interest are still a better alternative to losing money in a risky investment. And a certain percent of site deposits remains in a bank or deposited with the central bank that earns no interest.

However, cost of production is determined by labor, land, capital and intellectual property or know how as well as how efficiently those factors are combined. So a company or a country can compete on their own comparative advantage depending on what they have a surplus of in terms of labor, land, capital or intellectual property. They do not need an absolute advantage only a comparative advantage. So for example, as we said, you cannot go to work and stay home and clean your house and neither can a country's workers simultaneously produce crops and manufacture goods using the same workers, the same land, the same capital and the same know how, so they have to chose which it is going to be? Grow crops or work in a factory? Build container ships or design software?

Flow of capital from savers to borrowers and from investors to risk takers may help a country decide to substitute more capital for less labor, and, of course, a dearth of inward foreign investment might necessitate a country use more labor and less capital. They are not mutually exclusive. China for instance combines high technology with cheap labor to bridge the divide between full automation and manual assembly. Due to high labor costs in Germany, this is not a cost effective option, so they are forced to use more capital and less labor in their manufacturing.

A well-educated workforce and a diversified economy means that a country, company or individuals can switch effortlessly or with less disruption from one economic activity to another depending on their perceived view of which activity will bring the highest economic return. A one industry town or country lacking basic infrastructure may not be as flexible and therefore is much more vulnerable to economic disruption.

This is the point that Late Starter made about not giving up all your manufacturing know-how. Or never trade away your core competencies.

So comparative advantage can be influenced by capital flows, but they are not mutually exclusive.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 30 Mar 2006, 08:44:05

Some articles from Reuters today. RE printed in their entirety as they are not available on reuters.com
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
BERLIN, March 10 (Reuters) - Germany exported a record amount of goods in January, but with import volumes also soaring, there is mounting evidence that a burgeoning recovery will profit less strongly from net trade than in the past.

The Federal Statistics Office said on Friday that in seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose by 3.3 percent month-on-month to a record 69.7 billion euros, with imports climbing 3.0 percent to 57.8 billion euros, also a new high.
This yielded a trade surplus of 11.9 billion euros, which was lower than expected. The mid-range forecast of analysts polled by Reuters last week was for the surplus to widen to 13.0 billion euros from 11.4 billion euros in December.
DZ Bank economist Bernd Weidensteiner said the figures testified to the strength of German firms on the global market, but also suggested that domestic demand was strengthening.
"January was somewhat assuring and we could have another positive contribution from trade to GDP, even if that boost shouldn't be as high as it has been in the past due to the pickup in domestic demand," he said.
Confidence has increased about Germany's prospects for this year, with the Kiel-based IfW institute on Thursday raising its 2006 growth forecast by 0.6 percentage points to 2.1 percent.
Though industrial output was held back by poor weather in January, manufacturing orders rose strongly and economists say Europe's largest economy is heading for a strong pick-up in the first quarter after stagnating at the end of 2005.
A breakdown of the trade data showed that Germany, the world's biggest exporter of goods in 2005, had increased exports by 13.3 percent in comparison to January 2005.
Annual import growth was 18.7 percent, with imports from outside the European Union rising by 27.5 percent.

BUBBLE FEARS RECEDE
Economists attribute Germany's export strength to firms' increasing competitiveness in relation to other economies. Data on Thursday showed German hourly labour costs fell during the fourth quarter of 2005 for the first time in at least ten years.
"Germany is profiting from its better competitive position," said Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein economist Rainer Guntermann.
"Even the exchange rate has become more advantageous. Above all, Germany produces engineering products that are needed in a lot of emerging nations at the moment."
Guntermann said recent economic data, which showed big gains in engineering orders and retail sales in January, meant the risk of a sentiment bubble forming in Germany had eased.
"The leading indicators are giving a realistic picture. We are expecting growth in Germany of 0.6 percent in the first quarter," Guntermann said.
Some analysts had warned expectations could be getting dangerously inflated when the Ifo institute's closely-watched gauge of business confidence hit a 14-year high in February.
Separately, the Office said that annual German inflation, measured both by the national (CPI) and the EU-harmonised (HICP) gauges, held steady at 2.1 percent in February.

By Holger Hansen and Kerstin Doerr
BERLIN/NUREMBERG, March 30 (Reuters) - The number of Germans out of work jumped unexpectedly by 30,000 in March, adjusted for seasonal swings, in a sign that the country's export-driven economic recovery has yet to translate into more hiring by firms.

The Federal Labour Office said the increase, which pushed the adjusted jobless rate up to 11.4 percent, was partly due to unusually cold, snowy weather, which dampens hiring in sectors such as construction.
But economists said the data, which also showed a smaller-than-expected dip in the politically-sensitive unadjusted jobless total to 4.976 million, highlighted the uneven nature of a recovery which other indicators have suggested is gathering pace.
"There may be unseasonably cold weather effects to take into account, but even so, the German jobless rate at 11.4 percent still casts a very long shadow over sustainable recovery prospects," said David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns International in London.
The numbers were a disappointment to the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel which has made cutting unemployment its top priority.
"The labour market numbers, which we are getting today, are not as good as we really hoped for," Vice Chancellor and Labour Minister Franz Muentefering told the Bundestag lower house of parliament. "The number of unemployed people is too high."
All the headline numbers in the March report were weaker than expected. A survey of 46 analysts polled by Reuters last week had produced a consensus forecast for a 6,000 drop in the adjusted jobless total <ECONDE> and the adjusted jobless rate had been expected to hold steady at 11.3 percent.
The 30,000 rise brought the adjusted jobless total to 4.73 million. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, vacancies fell by 3,000 month-on-month to 462,000.
NO SIGNS OF HIRING PICKUP
Economists have grown more optimistic about the German economy in recent months and some are forecasting growth of as much as 2 percent this year, which would be the strongest rate since 2000's expansion of 3.2 percent.
A series of sentiment indicators have fuelled bullish views on Europe's largest economy. On Tuesday, the closely-watched Ifo business climate index shot up to a 15-year high and a survey published on Wednesday showed consumers growing more confident.
But the Labour Office said the positive growth trend was not having a noticeable impact on the jobs market, where firms remain reluctant to hire.
"The development of economic indicators points to a continuation of economic growth in 2006. However, the economic impulses were not yet strong enough for a fundamental improvement in the labour market," the Office said. "While there are positive signs in the trend in unemployment and vacancies, there is no sign of a general pickup in hiring."
Without a sustainable improvement in hiring, economists say growth in the broader economy is likely to remain limited.
Merkel's right-left coalition is in the midst of a divisive debate about how far to go in loosening job protection rules to boost employment.
The disappointing March numbers could further fuel that debate, which is being coloured by mass protests in France against measures aimed at boosting jobs for young people
.
The Labour Office said the weather, which remained unseasonably cold throughout the first half of March, was partly to blame.
"The seasonally-adjusted gain in unemployment in March was a result of the unusually cold and snowy weather which can't be sufficiently accounted for in the seasonal adjustment," the Office said. "The usual decline in seasonal unemployment will be partly delayed until April."

By Swaha Pattanaik
PARIS, March 30 (Reuters) - French consumer confidence fell more than expected in March, dented by protests against a government-backed youth employment contract which its critics say heightens job insecurity.
Thursday's data was more bad news for Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, who made cutting joblessnes and restoring confidence a priority when he came to office in 2005 and is now under intense pressure to withdraw the youth job contract.
Consumer morale in the euro zone's second biggest economy fell to minus 26, almost fully reversing gains which took it to minus 24 in February. It was the first drop since November, when rioting in poor French suburbs hit consumer confidence.
The breakdown showed heightened concern about the outlook for personal finances and general living standards, as well as a downturn in opinions on whether it was a good time to spend.
"The massive demonstrations against the CPE (First Job Contract) is crystalising all the fears of French households about employment and joblessness," said Mathieu Kaiser, economist at BNP Paribas in Paris.
"There is a serious fear about the future, a serious fear about what globalisation could be bringing, in terms of job instability or flexibility."
The retreat in the consumer confidence figures was more marked than the slight slippage in business morale for the same month reported on Monday.
That data had showed business sentiment easing to 105 in March from an upwardly revised 106 in February but revealed optimism about future growth -- a sign that protests had yet to dent business chiefs' confidence about the economy.
"If the situation is resolved soon, there won't be any further deterioration and it won't spill over into business confidence," said Audrey Childe-Freeman at CIBC World Markets in London.
"If there is prolonged unrest, it is another story. But we can't get too concerned about it yet."
CRYSTALLISING FEARS
National statistics office INSEE which releases the report said that, unlike previous months, almost all the components of the confidence indicator had declined.
"Households' views on the quality of life in France, past and future, worsened fairly clearly. The reading on whether it is a good time to spend started to decline again in March," it said.
There were declines in some of the other measures, which are not included in the calculation of the headline index, most notably in the outlook for unemployment.
"There's a great fear about unemployment," BNP's Kaiser said. "This translates into a rise in the savings numbers."
A separate report on Thursday showed producer prices, a key measure of pipeline inflation pressures, rose by a smaller- than-expected 0.1 percent in February and 3.5 percent from a year earlier.
Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected consumer confidence to dip to minus 25 from minus 24 in February and forecast a monthly rise of 0.4 percent in producer prices.



Source: Reuters3000
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby Euric » Sun 02 Apr 2006, 00:26:59

[quote="MrBill"]Some articles from Reuters today. RE printed in their entirety as they are not available on reuters.com
[quote]


You seem to think that all of this anti-EU propaganda emanating from the US/British press is somehow going to sway governments and citizens around the world to keep feeding the American gluttons. It may convince you, but very few others.

Whereas in times past investors would flee the EU countries when news reports of demonstrating students would hit the media, this time it isn't working. The Euro is not only holding its own, it is pushing away from the 1.20 mark. No matter what fibs the US utters about how wonderful its indebted economy is, very few are believing it.

As for unemployment in Germany, ask any German which he would prefer if given a choice: American working conditions, of working multiple minimum wage jobs with minimal or no benefits averaging 60~80 h/week or to be unemployed and receiving more money sitting at home then working at American style jobs with full medical care included.

This is the very thing the French are fighting against, the Americanization of the economy. Give the jobs, both skilled and unskilled to low labour countries, and force the citizens to work as slaves for almost nothing.

The EU knows that its future is in manufacturing and in the end it will draw the investments from the outside to secure that future, despite US propaganda. While the US, like Humpty-Dumpty, will and be unrepairable.

Humpty-Dumpty (the US) sat on a Wall (Wall Street)
Humpty-Dumpty had a great fall (Economic Crash)
All of the King's horses (military leaders) and all the King's men (advisers) couldn't put Humpty back together again.
User avatar
Euric
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 622
Joined: Sat 04 Dec 2004, 04:00:00

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby Kingcoal » Sun 02 Apr 2006, 00:55:55

Mr. Bill, I think you've got Euric upset!
User avatar
Kingcoal
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2149
Joined: Wed 29 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Pennsylvania, USA

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby MrBill » Sun 02 Apr 2006, 12:23:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Euric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')ome articles from Reuters today. RE printed in their entirety as they are not available on reuters.com
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')

You seem to think that all of this anti-EU propaganda emanating from the US/British press is somehow going to sway governments and citizens around the world to keep feeding the American gluttons. It may convince you, but very few others.

Whereas in times past investors would flee the EU countries when news reports of demonstrating students would hit the media, this time it isn't working. The Euro is not only holding its own, it is pushing away from the 1.20 mark. No matter what fibs the US utters about how wonderful its indebted economy is, very few are believing it.

As for unemployment in Germany, ask any German which he would prefer if given a choice: American working conditions, of working multiple minimum wage jobs with minimal or no benefits averaging 60~80 h/week or to be unemployed and receiving more money sitting at home then working at American style jobs with full medical care included.

This is the very thing the French are fighting against, the Americanization of the economy. Give the jobs, both skilled and unskilled to low labour countries, and force the citizens to work as slaves for almost nothing.

The EU knows that its future is in manufacturing and in the end it will draw the investments from the outside to secure that future, despite US propaganda. While the US, like Humpty-Dumpty, will and be unrepairable.

Humpty-Dumpty (the US) sat on a Wall (Wall Street)
Humpty-Dumpty had a great fall (Economic Crash)
All of the King's horses (military leaders) and all the King's men (advisers) couldn't put Humpty back together again.



yes, it is all a big conspiracy. you simply cannot believe anything you read on Reuters, AP, Knight Ridder, Bloomberg, The Economist, the FT, etc. not even the SDZ or FAZ if you wanna know the truth. all lies. thanks for setting us straight Euric. make sure next time you're trying to prove one of your points that you also do not use any of these sources of information to support your arguments! ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: A new EU initiative - assuring a strong manufacturing ba

Unread postby MrBill » Sun 02 Apr 2006, 15:46:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'M')r. Bill, I think you've got Euric upset!



It is really not my intention to upset anyone. I prefer a balanced argument. Of course, I have lived and worked in European countries for 14-15 years, and before that in the USA. Obviously, I prefer Europe for the lifestyle. Mind you the high unemployment is not benign. Experienced workers with a good post secondary education out of work for more than one year just because they are over 40 and no emplyer wants them because they are older, more expensive, and restrictive labor laws mean once you take them on, you cannot easily reduce your labor force.

Some people who have never lived and worked here see the 6 weeks of vacation, the high living standards and think it is great. It is great. When you have a good job. But of course the new factories are being built somewhere else. And once you lose your job, you can send out 200+ resumes and never receive a positive reply.

Then like in France you have high unemployment amoung youth. So they do not get the chance to get started in a career.

Yes, I like Europe very much. The different languages, the cultures and the diversity. However, it is an economy of insiders and outsiders. Those who have good jobs, and those without jobs. That is what the street violence last Fall was about in France. And by the way, if you want protectionism and no free trade, then you should withdraw from the EU free trade zone, the euro project, which says what you can and cannot subsidize from the public's finances, and while you're at it withdraw from the WTO. What you cannot do is prevent free trade and belong to those clubs that promote free trade and economic integration. It is simply a choice. Those that suggest you can have it both ways are either extremely naive or French or both.

But Humpty Dumty man always knows better... ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 03 Apr 2006, 04:17:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', 'M')rBill, doesn't comparative advantage only work if capital doesn't become mobile as well? So that we have to choose between freedom of movement of capital or of goods, we can't have both and still derive the benefits of international trade?


RE compartive advantage
Carver, I found this article very interesting, as it shows how trying to keep an unviable or marginal industry alive can have perverse side effects, I cannot even call them unintended consequences. If your economy is so badly skewed that worker's rights cannot be guaranteed and federal laws enforced then that is likely an industry that you/the country should not be in. Far better to offshore that work than bring in guest workers to provide cheap labor without the benefit of the law to protect them. Before someone says, 'ah, that is America for you', you should probably consider guest sex workers from CIS, African and Asian countries, or farm workers/pickers/harvesters from Africa and the CEE and their plight in unregulated areas through the EU, that are doing the jobs that no EU bergher wants either.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
The Job No Americans Want Isn't Getting Any Easier

MENDOTA, Calif. -- The seven sheepherders were eating lunch in a trailer with no toilet, heat or water, its leaky roof held down by a rope.

A lunch break, especially one together, was a rare event. But they were celebrating, sort of. Lambing season was ending. That's when the ewes give birth and the sheepherders who come to this country on three-year work visas put in their hardest 12- to 16-hour days, seven days a week.

In the list of jobs immigrants perform that no U.S. citizen wants, sheepherding must rank near the top. The 825 or so sheepherders who work the nation's sheep farms -- mostly in California, Texas and Wyoming -- are immigrants here on H-2A visas from Peru, Chile, Bolivia and Mexico, according to the Western Range Association, an industry group.

Their lot was supposed to change, at least in California. In 2001, the state legislature passed a law imposing new labor standards for sheepherders. They were to have adequate housing, with toilets, heat and potable water. They were to get graduated raises, from $800 to $1,300 a month at present, and they were to get vacation. But in March 2005, a report by Central California Legal Services, a Fresno-based legal aid group, found that little had changed.

continued.....

The Job No American Wants
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Unread postby Doly » Mon 03 Apr 2006, 10:44:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Carver, I found this article very interesting, as it shows how trying to keep an unviable or marginal industry alive can have perverse side effects, I cannot even call them unintended consequences.


Mr Bill, don't you think that peak oil can radically change what is an unviable industry? I mean, if the costs of transport start to become significant, a local industry could become cheaper than a far-away one and start having a comparative advantage. And in that case, if a government has reason to think a certain industry would have a comparative advantage post peak, wouldn't they be justified in trying to keep the industry alive?
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4370
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Next

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron