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A few questions about PO and current situation

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

A few questions about PO and current situation

Unread postby realeyz » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 06:14:43

Hi Gang

I was talking to someone earlier today about oil, gas and the war and had a few questions:

1) Why is the SPR being opened if we don't have the refinery capacity to handle it?

2) I heard that a new refinery has not been built in America in 25 years - if this is true then how have we been able to accomodate our countries increasing demand capacity over those years? Did we build more refineries than we needed back then or improve capacity to existing ones over time?

3) Is the war in Iraq in any way responsible for the increase in oil prices over the last 2 years? If so then how?

4) Is the recent increase in oil prices really due to peak oil or more due to fear, refinery capacity, and the Iraq war? All my research about PO has led me to believe PO is more of a longer term effect than just what we have experienced this last year.

Thanx and sorry if these have been discussed elsewhere before - I am just having a hard time nailing down answers to these specific questions.

- todd
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Re: A few questions about PO and current situation

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 06:32:44

1. It does not have to make a difference, just give the illusion of "The President is Doing Something".

2. Refineries are running at maximum capacity at the moment and blowing up on a regular basis recently.

3. The fact that Iraq is producing less oil now than during Sadam's rule with sanctions is not going to help.

4. If you read the papers and watch the news the prices rises are blamed on exactly everything except Peak Oil. The MSM would blame prices rises on Uncle Fred's cat having hiccups rather than Peak Oil.
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Re: A few questions about PO and current situation

Unread postby gego » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 06:34:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('realeyz', '
')1) Why is the SPR being opened if we don't have the refinery capacity to handle it?


Public relations trick by Bush to make the American public believe he is helping them, and he wants to avert panic. It will work for maybe another week until flights are cancelled, trucking companies shut down and lines at gas stations are blocks long to buy $6 gas, if they have it at all.
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Re: A few questions about PO and current situation

Unread postby Z » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 06:35:42

My 2 cents ( adjusted for inflation )

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('realeyz', '1')) Why is the SPR being opened if we don't have the refinery capacity to handle it?


Political gesture to reassure the markets. Helps lower the price of oil ( fear you know ... ).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('realeyz', '2')) I heard that a new refinery has not been built in America in 25 years - if this is true then how have we been able to accomodate our countries increasing demand capacity over those years? Did we build more refineries than we needed back then or improve capacity to existing ones over time?


I think both plus imports of refined products. I could be wrong.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('realeyz', '3')) Is the war in Iraq in any way responsible for the increase in oil prices over the last 2 years? If so then how?


I think that it is partially true. Iraq oil exports fell a bit from the pre-war period and the continuing insurgency there targets occasionally the oil infrastructure. Both elements push the oil price higher. This was not the original plan of course, but by now it is obvious the plan failed miserably.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('realeyz', '4')) Is the recent increase in oil prices really due to peak oil or more due to fear, refinery capacity, and the Iraq war?


Since it is traded on the global market, the main reason behind high oil prices is the increase of demand, especially from China and India and the lack of an equivalent increase of supply. The later may be due to PO ( struggling against depletion ) or a lack of investments to produce new fields ( fear of big oil that oil price crashes / developpement of oil fields takes time ).
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Re: A few questions about PO and current situation

Unread postby cammo2004 » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 06:46:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('realeyz', 'H')i Gang

I was talking to someone earlier today about oil, gas and the war and had a few questions:

1) Why is the SPR being opened if we don't have the refinery capacity to handle it?

2) I heard that a new refinery has not been built in America in 25 years - if this is true then how have we been able to accomodate our countries increasing demand capacity over those years? Did we build more refineries than we needed back then or improve capacity to existing ones over time?

3) Is the war in Iraq in any way responsible for the increase in oil prices over the last 2 years? If so then how?

4) Is the recent increase in oil prices really due to peak oil or more due to fear, refinery capacity, and the Iraq war? All my research about PO has led me to believe PO is more of a longer term effect than just what we have experienced this last year.

Thanx and sorry if these have been discussed elsewhere before - I am just having a hard time nailing down answers to these specific questions.

- todd


1/ This can be summarised as the politicians aren't as smart as one would have hoped, or are doing what they think will get votes, or Bush is a git. Personally, I prefer the latter choice. Bush has probably in his haste not realised that it needs to be refined... :lol:

2/ From what I've read, an increasing proportion of the oil supplies that the US uses are refined overseas. I expect refineries were built with SOME excess capacity, and that some have been expanded. I don't even pretend to be an expert on this matter though, and there's probably people on this site who know better than me.

3/ To a VERY SMALL (and those two words can't be emphasised enough!) degree, yes. Mainly in the regard that the hostilities prevent "normal" oil volumes from coming out of Eye-raack.

4/ The best answer here is probably a combination of all three. Oh, and add in speculative activity (oh, joy... :( )

Now, I'm by no means an expert on these matters (quite a novice, actually) but that's how I've read the situation.
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Re: A few questions about PO and current situation

Unread postby NEOPO » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 06:57:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('realeyz', 'H')i Gang

I was talking to someone earlier today about oil, gas and the war and had a few questions:

1) Why is the SPR being opened if we don't have the refinery capacity to handle it?

2) I heard that a new refinery has not been built in America in 25 years - if this is true then how have we been able to accomodate our countries increasing demand capacity over those years? Did we build more refineries than we needed back then or improve capacity to existing ones over time?

3) Is the war in Iraq in any way responsible for the increase in oil prices over the last 2 years? If so then how?

4) Is the recent increase in oil prices really due to peak oil or more due to fear, refinery capacity, and the Iraq war? All my research about PO has led me to believe PO is more of a longer term effect than just what we have experienced this last year.

Thanx and sorry if these have been discussed elsewhere before - I am just having a hard time nailing down answers to these specific questions.

- todd


IMHO

1. mainly political
2. Sound business practice when profit is all you care about.
To have one large plant running efficiently rather then 2 medium or 4 small plants running less efficiently - this part is not a conspiracy....
If safety/security were the issue we would not have so many refineries in one area.
3. Remember all those oil fires? also... Saddam might have been an evil cruel american goat that went astray yet he kept the oil flowing..... and you cannot count out relentless insurgent attacks on iraqs oil infrastructure.
4. Supply and demand are about to meet for the first time ever on a world wide level.
There is no more buffer zone. If one major skips a beat - the world will also.
The majors want to find more oil - of course its simply not there to find like it was in the past so they will inevitably face facts and stop spending billions on it.
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Re: A few questions about PO and current situation

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 08:12:38

correct answer for #2: Although no new "refineries" have been built, all of these existing refineries have frequently been expanded, upgraded and debottlenecked to increase throughput. So, the overall capacity has expanded without any new actual greenfield refineries being built.
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Re: A few questions about PO and current situation

Unread postby retiredguy » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 10:11:12

What I heard yesterday was that a Shell refinery in western LA, which wasn't damaged but was cut off from its supply of crude, asked for 500,000 barrels from the SPR to keep working.
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