Peak Oil is You
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Page added on August 2, 2018
The threat to oil is not just electric cars, but self-driving electric cars
The phrase “peak oil” was coined to explain when the world’s supply of oil would start running out. Over the past decade, however, the meaning has shifted from supply to demand—consumption of oil may dwindle out before resources do.
What changed? The rise of electric cars means that there will come a time when more drivers will get their energy from the grid than the gas station. Cars and trucks account for the largest share of global oil demand, by some distance.
Wood Mackenzie, an influential oil consultancy, thinks that the threat to oil will become more severe with the rise of self-driving cars. Ed Rawle, WoodMac’s head of crude oil research, told the Financial Times (paywall):
Autonomous electric vehicles or robo-taxis will really change the face of transport in the coming decades. We presume they become commercial by 2030 and widely accepted by 2035, with each autonomous electric vehicle expected to have a larger impact on curbing oil demand than a conventional electric car.
The logic goes: When there are self-driving cars, people would increasingly prefer to be driven than to drive. That means self-driving cars will spend more time on the road than normal cars. These newer cars are more fuel efficient, so widespread use will curb oil demand, regardless of whether they are electric or not. But if self-driving cars are also electric, which is likely to be the case, the threat to oil is even greater.
QZ
56 Comments on "The threat to oil is not just electric cars, but self-driving electric cars"
twocats on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 10:09 am
worst case ever presented for how this is all going to reduce demand.
“These newer cars are more fuel efficient, so widespread use will curb oil demand, regardless of whether they are electric or not.”
sounds like an article of faith. I guess one could argue that since there will be a need for fewer cars and cars will run at a higher rate the inventory turnover will be faster.
Makati1 on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 10:42 am
Hahahahahaha! LMAO “The threat to oil is not just electric cars, but self-driving electric cars” The “threat” to oil is inability of the consumer to afford to buy it at prices that can sustain the recovery, refining and transport of the product.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 10:49 am
The idea that electric cars are lowering demand is ridiculous. Electric cars haven’t made a dent, just a small scratch in oil demand. Electric cars are only 0.2% of light-duty vehicles, and cost so much only the upper 5% can afford them, even with subsidies.
I suspect the peak oil demand idea is one more attempt by the wealthy and powerful to hide peak oil, because peak oil studies have shown that if peak oil were acknowledged, stock markets all over the world would crash since the economy would be shrinking from then on and debts couldn’t be repaid. Credit would freeze and dry up. Panic and social disorder would follow.
https://un-denial.com/2018/07/04/by-alice-friedemann-on-fake-peak-oil-demand/
efarmer on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 10:57 am
The Big Petroleum Exploit inspired a nation to sprawl everything out to be connected by easy motoring in gasoline power ICE vehicles. The notion that the solution to this structural liability being a battery operated car rather than mass transit is farce. Similar to saying aging is easily defeated with lucrative and high tech plastic surgery.
Davy on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 11:25 am
I think this could be a bigger threat to the global economy:
“Here’s Why Trump Is Hiking Chinese Tariffs To 25%”
https://tinyurl.com/yclg8aoo
“And with the Yuan hitting the lowest level against the dollar in a year overnight, the ball is now in Trump’s court. Any further escalation will only accelerate the Yuan devaluation, strengthen the dollar, and – eventually – breach China’s capital control firewall at which point 2018 will finally become 2015 all over again. And the biggest irony: it Trump really wants to defeat China, instead of criticizing the Fed for hiking, he has to encourage Powell to do precisely what he has been doing so far, as Eric Peters explained over the weekend: “The best way to bring Beijing to its knees is by running a tight monetary policy in the US. China has the world’s most overleveraged, fragile financial system.” In 2008, China’s total debt-to-GDP was 140%. It is now roughly 300%, while GDP is slowing. “The economy is held together by capital controls. If those fail, the whole system fails.” The capital flight in 2015/16 cost the government $1trln in reserves, and that was with ultra-dove Yellen in charge. Imagine what would have happened with Volcker at the helm. “The Chinese are dying to get their money out.” All Trump has to do, is help them do it and watch as China’s economy crumbles from the inside.”
Antius on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 12:18 pm
So basically, if global liquids consumption per passenger mile in passenger road vehicles drops by 50% over the next decade, total oil demand will drop by 13%. That’s assuming there is no overall growth in transport service demand or growth in other sectors.
This would appear to demolish the case for switching to electric vehicles as a means of mitigating oil supply shortages. Since 2005, global crude supply has already shrunk 10% on a delivered energy basis.
Twocats on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 12:47 pm
The next economic downturn will be the final one. There can be no let down in the system without total collapse. I was actually surprised they allowed the 2008 one to happen and they got lucky with an expert imperial manager in Obama. Could you imagine ding-dong trying to navigate atrue crises (i.e one he hasn’t personally completely created)??
Boat on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 12:57 pm
Antius
Show the 10% drop in delivered energy since 2005? Sounds like something shortonoil would say. A link would be great.
Boat on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 1:07 pm
Mm
Projections are future guessing. One electric car drops fuel consumption. Buy me an EV and I’ll compile the numbers of fuel consumption eleminated for you.
Boat on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 1:14 pm
Wonder if those auto cars will drop you off at the door and pick you up at the door with a cart full of groceries. Be nice if it’s raining.
Antius on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 1:27 pm
“Antius
Show the 10% drop in delivered energy since 2005? Sounds like something shortonoil would say. A link would be great.”
https://d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net/tinymce/2018-08/1533146663-poil10.jpg
MASTERMIND on Thu, 2nd Aug 2018 1:41 pm
Peak oil hit back in 2006 as predicted by hubbert
Source: Nature
Oil’s Tipping Point Has Passed (James Murray & Sir David King 2012)
https://www.scribd.com/document/375500703/Climate-Policy-Oil-s-Tipping-Point-Has-Passed-Murray-King-2012
Unconventional oil is just a stop gap measure..
Anonymouse1 on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 4:39 am
Holy fook are ever a boatretard. Yeah dumbass, the robot cars of the future(tm) will drive you anywhere you need to go. Wall-mart, Wallgreens, Burger King, the texASS special Olympics. Take you to your special ed classes 5 days a week. (And back to the trailer park afterwards, holy shit).
Futures so bright retard, you gotta wear shades.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 5:20 am
“Anonymouse1 on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 2:02 pm”
This was the last comment by asperger that can be considered a comment that contributes. The rest is trolling grunts like the above. DISGUSTING
Antius on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 8:25 am
If self-driving taxis do become a practical proposition then the benefits for personal transportation could be enormous, because it would substantially alleviate the limitations of non-ICE powered vehicles.
If a large number of vehicles can be controlled or assigned to individual journeys by a centralised AI within a town say, then individual vehicles can be assigned to carry out specific journeys. This means that the range and speed capabilities of those vehicles can be matched to specific journey types. A vehicle carrying out short range trips in urban areas, may not need a range greater than 40km or a top speed greater than 50km/h. This enormously increases the options available for powering such a vehicle. It may be an electric vehicle powered by a small battery, a tank of low pressure (10bar) compressed air, a flywheel, maybe even stored thermal energy. Vehicles carrying out longer trips can again be specifically designed for that purpose with an ICE, fuel cell or a long-range battery.
Switching to self-driving taxis would make the transition away from oil based transportation a much more practical proposition. It is definitely a technology that should be pursued.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 9:35 am
“Anonymouse1 on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 2:02 pm”
“This was the last comment by asperger that can be considered a comment that contributes. The rest is trolling grunts like the above. DISGUSTING”
That would be somebody’s username and a date Davy, not a comment, and who gave you the right to determine what is considered to be a “comment that contributes”?
Was your comment above about “asperger’s trolling grunts” a comment that contributes Davy? Does Asperger even exist outside of your own mind? How about your all caps “DISGUSTING”? Is that a “comment that contributes” as well?
Give your head a shake Davy.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 10:52 am
Greygoar, read aspergers comment and with a straight face tell me that noise can be defended. You are at the same level as Asperger so I would expect that out of you. Canada’s worst spreading the ugly message of hate.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 11:16 am
Davy,
There is nobody on this forum with the usernames asperger, or Greygoar.
Your comments about “asperger’s trolling grunts”‘ and “Canada’s worst spreading the ugly message of hate” are both equally as relevant to the discussion as Anonymouse1’s comment about Boat. Neither are “comments that contribute”.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 11:51 am
You answer to it and it works. As long as you troll Americans here it is your username. Try to stop me from using it.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 11:58 am
All you are accomplishing Davy, is making yourself look like an idiot.
Knock yourself out.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 12:36 pm
Greg
Whats going on in your country with the shift to the ignorant right? Looks like you have a Trump in the making in Doug Ford..Another fat tub of lard piece of soggy white bread..
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 3:22 pm
MM,
I gave up on politics a very long time ago. As far as I’m concerned it mostly attracts the wrong kinds of people. I don’t believe in top down control as it always leads to civil unrest, corruption, and wars, and democracy will never work without a well informed public, which will never happen considering the average IQ globally is around 100.
I also happen to agree with Thomas Jefferson:
“The people can not be all, and always, well informed. The part which is wrong will be discontented in proportion to the importance of the facts they misconceive. If they remain quiet under such misconceptions it is a lethargy, the forerunner of death to the public liberty.”
“What country ever existed a century and a half without a rebellion? And what country can preserve it’s liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is it’s natural manure.”
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 3:29 pm
“All you are accomplishing Davy, is making yourself look like an idiot.”
The point is to be an idiot to an idiot but you are not very sharp so yea knock yourself out thinking knock yourself out.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 3:33 pm
Your childish name calling also exposes your emotional insecurities Davy, not that they weren’t transparent already.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 3:34 pm
“I gave up on politics a very long time ago. As far as I’m concerned it mostly attracts the wrong kinds of people.”
Give me a break hyper nationalistic anti-American Canadian. You love dirty politics and live it daily.
“I don’t believe in top down control as it always leads to civil unrest, corruption, and wars, and democracy will never work without a well-informed public, which will never happen considering the average IQ globally is around 100.”
Oh, bright one then what do you suggest with 7BIL people? Democracy works well enough in many locations for realistic people not people like you that dwell in a fantasy world of extremist idealism.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 3:36 pm
“Your childish name calling also exposes your emotional insecurities Davy, not that they weren’t transparent already.”
Shut up hypocrite, you assassinate characters daily and play your group censorship games then you come on here and point fingers at me. What a douchebag
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 3:38 pm
I’ve made my stance perfectly clear Davy. Your imaginary delusions are yours, not mine.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 3:42 pm
I think I was pretty clear but you are a dishonest person so keep playing your adolescent games that just make you look more the weirdo.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 3:45 pm
“What a douchebag”
Your fixation with all things female genitalia, also speaks volumes to your psychological issues Davy. It doesn’t get any more transparent, but don’t let that stop you from continuing to expose your issues for all to clearly see.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 4:01 pm
Geeze, greygoar, quit your games and man up. Stop your trolling, character assassinations, and group censorship and we will not have any issues. I would also recommend you make some intelligent contributions instead of the Facebook grabass noise with your gangbangers
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 4:22 pm
There is no gang Davy, that would also be another one of your paranoid delusions
Put an end to your constant harassment, bullying, and personal attacks against both others, and myself, or this does not stop. Ever.
Your choice.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 4:40 pm
Group censorship Greggie from your gang. Quit your games and be honest. Your effort failed but that does not release you from the transgression.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 4:51 pm
Paranoid delusions Davy.
People have simply had enough of five long years of your constant delusional bullshit.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 5:33 pm
Gregor, I have that documented also despite your denials. BTW, I wish I had a dollar for every time you whine paranoid delusions. You sure are repetitive. Is there nothing else rolling around up there between your ears?
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 6:50 pm
Let everybody know in another five years, if your new moderation ‘strategy’ of an unmoderated Internet discussion forum, was as much of a waste of time as your old moderation ‘strategy’ of an unmoderated Internet discussion forum.
LOL
Have you ever stopped to wonder Davy, why people say that you’re delusional?
Boney Joe on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 6:52 pm
DavyDonaldTurd (DDT):
Once and for all, put a sock in your pie-hole orifice.
Makati1 on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 7:01 pm
Davy obviously doesn’t have a farm and maybe not even a goat. He certainly has a family that cannot stand him and his immature arrogance. Anyone who has a real farm does not live on the internet trying to bully more intelligent people with his bullshit. They have a life. He has nothing but delusions.
https://dmh.mo.gov/CertifiedCommunityBehavioralHealthClinics.htm
or
https://www.bjcbehavioralhealth.org/
Try it Davy. You’ll like. LOL
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 7:28 pm
“Let everybody know in another five years, if your new moderation LOL”
The lol is on you and your gangbangers, grehgor. Let’s see some goods. You struggle to contribute something objective, intellectual, and furthering knowledge on our board. You all are into your troll gaming and extremist agenda noise driven by group censorship. Obviously my strategy is working because of the amount of time you and your gangbangers devote to trying to censor me. You can’t do it. Even when I tried to go a different direction you got cocky and wanted to eliminate me. You wouldn’t let me alone and now you dumbasses got me back with my foot on your necks more than ever.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 7:29 pm
Boney Juan, I am still waiting for a comment to document out of you. Nothing but your puppeteering and trolling has come out of you for weeks.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 7:35 pm
“Davy obviously doesn’t have a farm and maybe not even a goat.”
LMFAO, the senile old man is trying to curse me. Come on billy who cares what you think or don’t think. You are stuck with me sucker.
“He certainly has a family that cannot stand him and his immature arrogance. “
I have a family billy and you don’t. You left your family for a boyfriend and a cheap club med.
“Anyone who has a real farm does not live on the internet trying to bully more intelligent people with his bullshit. They have a life. He has nothing but delusions.”
You don’t know shit about farming billy, your little quarter acre fantasy garden you are never at ain’t shit. Too bad you don’t have a smart phone like me. I make your life miserable don’t I. I expose all those filthy lies and know your inflated image of yourself down a couple of notches. It is funny how you don’t even come out on the board unless your gangbangers are out to support you and walk you across the street.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 7:53 pm
You are clearly not playing with a full deck Davy. Your above comments are all purely delusional.
You are in desperate need of psychological help buddy.
I made the prediction about three years ago that you would continue to become more detached from reality. Spot on.
My prediction now is that you will eventually go AWOL and seriously hurt somebody else.
You are an absolute fucking nutcase Davy. You should be locked away in an asylum, under constant supervision.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 8:04 pm
IMA Davy,
I think the main reason why the U.S. is so mired in mass murders, is because the nut cases like yourself, who can’t understand why people get so upset when hundreds of people are shot down at public music festivals, are not identified, and dealt with, before you go AWOL.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 8:15 pm
Greygoar, where are the goods? You can’t lie about that can you? Where is a comment with some intelligence? Try to tell me this is intelligent:
“Not playing with full deck, delusional, psychological help, AWOL, absolute fucking nutcase, locked up in an asylum”
You can’t write a comment that has content can you grehgor? All you can do is troll and practice group censorship. What a low life scumbag. One thing I know when the greggor starts throwing fucks around you won because you definitely got under his clammy white skin. Go bite yourself you numbnut Canadian holier than thou asswipe.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 8:17 pm
“I think the main reason why the U.S. is so mired in mass murders, is because the nut cases like yourself, who can’t understand why people get so upset when hundreds of people are shot down at public music festivals, are not identified, and dealt with, before you go AWOL.”
Spare me the tabloid drama. That noise just makes you look more off your rocker. You really need to get back to that psychiatrist.
Boney Joe on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 9:26 pm
DavyDonaldTurd (DDT):
At least I’m consistent, DDT.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 9:34 pm
Did you bother to send that opinion piece to your local news outlet Davy, with your full name, address, and telephone number included, explaining to everyone as to why you couldn’t figure out why everyone was getting all upset about the Las Vegas shooting massacre?
I didn’t think so.
Step up to the plate psycho boy, and expose yourself to your community, before you become part of the latest daily US mass murder statistics.
makati1 on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 9:59 pm
GregT, Davy is only one breakdown away from that “postal moment”. I no longer read his rants as he never can remember my correct name here. Just another sign of his immature delusions. He makes the “Mad Hatter” look sane.
GregT on Fri, 3rd Aug 2018 11:10 pm
Makati,
Davy already had at least one major psychological breakdown, which he described to everyone here at the time (all in the archives psycho boy), no doubt, he still hasn’t figured things out quite yet. Maybe after breakdown part two, he’ll wake up, but I wouldn’t hold my breath about that either.
You can’t fix stupid.
Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 12:20 pm
Even if this happens to the extent EV’s are the solid majority of transportation it will take multiple decades. Perhaps 3 to 5 decades.
Now, only about half of oil demand will be replaced. So it’s not like this is going to end the demand for oil — only reduce it.
Also, as global population and third world migration to middle class status continues, that will have a major impact on the demand for oil in things like petrochemicals.
Oh, and building all the batteries and facilities that power the new green transport revolution are going to take LOTS of oil via things like major amounts of plastics. So even more demand for petrochemicals.
So, OK. Let’s put this in perspective. Over the next 3 to 5 decades, there is likely to be a big shift in transport demand from regular ICE cars and light trucks to self driving BEV’s.
And as a result, there is likely to be SOME reduction in the total demand for oil, but overall, it is likely to be well under half of the oil consumed today, all things considered.
The world changes. I believe calling this known coming change a “threat” is overstating the case.
Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 12:27 pm
Of course, human nature, re Jevon’s Paradox is left out of this extremely superficial “analysis”.
If driving by automated taxi (or equivalent) becomes extremely cheap, efficient, and convenient, and safe — that will likely greatly raise the DEMAND for miles driven.
The assumption that there will be great overall efficiency gains might be exactly wrong. If people can go anywhere they want with VERY little inconvenience, and miles driven shoots up, there go your assumed energy efficiency (re total energy consumed) gains.
To me the idea that the (assumed) takeover by fully autonomous cars buys some kind of great energy savings is a farce.