Peak Oil is You
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Page added on August 2, 2018
The threat to oil is not just electric cars, but self-driving electric cars
The phrase “peak oil” was coined to explain when the world’s supply of oil would start running out. Over the past decade, however, the meaning has shifted from supply to demand—consumption of oil may dwindle out before resources do.
What changed? The rise of electric cars means that there will come a time when more drivers will get their energy from the grid than the gas station. Cars and trucks account for the largest share of global oil demand, by some distance.
Wood Mackenzie, an influential oil consultancy, thinks that the threat to oil will become more severe with the rise of self-driving cars. Ed Rawle, WoodMac’s head of crude oil research, told the Financial Times (paywall):
Autonomous electric vehicles or robo-taxis will really change the face of transport in the coming decades. We presume they become commercial by 2030 and widely accepted by 2035, with each autonomous electric vehicle expected to have a larger impact on curbing oil demand than a conventional electric car.
The logic goes: When there are self-driving cars, people would increasingly prefer to be driven than to drive. That means self-driving cars will spend more time on the road than normal cars. These newer cars are more fuel efficient, so widespread use will curb oil demand, regardless of whether they are electric or not. But if self-driving cars are also electric, which is likely to be the case, the threat to oil is even greater.
QZ
56 Comments on "The threat to oil is not just electric cars, but self-driving electric cars"
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 12:33 pm
Even if this happens to the extent EV’s are the solid majority of transportation it will take multiple decades. Perhaps 3 to 5 decades.
Not if you put yourself to it. Then it can be done in a decade.
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/norway-to-ban-the-sale-of-all-fossil-fuel-based-cars-by-2025-and-replace-with-electric-vehicles-a7065616.html
Sales of new petrol cars banned by 2025. Add 5-7 years and most petrol fueled cars will be gone.
Countries with similar plans:
Netherlands: 2025-2030
Germany: 2030
India: 2030
If the Summer of 2019 is going to be like this one, expect an avalanche of new environmental protection measures.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 2:55 pm
clogg
We have studied how long a transition would take..its not some big mystery you moron
UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives
(Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q
University of Chicago Peer Reviewed Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
MASTERMIND on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 2:58 pm
Family vacation in our EV..Well honey we have gone are 200 miles..Time to pull over for the night somewhere and filler up..
LMFAO!
jawagord on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 2:59 pm
The Germans manufacture 5.5+ million cars a year and export 4.5+ million per year to countries that are not named Netherlands and India. Ridiculous promises made by politicians that won’t be in government in 2030 should not be taken seriously.
Cloggie on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 3:34 pm
“We have studied how long a transition would take..its not some big mystery you moron
UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives
(Malyshkina, 2010)”
In the US perhaps, now that you have run out Natzis to do difficult stuff for you.
“Family vacation in our EV..Well honey we have gone are 200 miles..Time to pull over for the night somewhere and filler up..”
People commute 250 times per year but go on family vacation 1-2 times per year. A 200 miles range is sufficient for commuting, for a holiday to places where you don’t belong, take train or plane.
“Ridiculous promises made by politicians that won’t be in government in 2030 should not be taken seriously.”
Politicians may be gone, their laws not so much. The Paris Accords are in place, the signals have been given. All German and other European car companies have massive programs to develop a large number of e-vehicle models.
https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/07/bmw-to-offer-12-fully-electric-car-models-by-2025/
There is no way back.
jawagord on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 4:32 pm
Like how Obama committed the Americans to the Paris Accord. That kind of “law”?