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Page added on September 23, 2020

So, We’re Back To “Peak Oil” Again

During a panel discussion in which I participated recently with three energy experts, the moderator asked us if we agreed with the recent projection by British oil giant BP that oil demand may have already peaked during 2019. Everyone on the panel answered with a firm “no.”

From my own perspective, I gave that answer in large part because all of the dozens of previous “peak oil” predictions – whether from the supply side or the more recent demand side reasoning – have turned out to be entirely wrong, often in hilarious fashion. From an historical perspective, it just seems like the safer position to take.

That’s not to downplay the position assumed by BP, whose internal expertise is undeniable. But it’s key to note that much of the media coverage the company’s findings have received portrays BP’s position as being far more absolute than it really is. The company’s position on “peak oil” is in fact highly-qualified.

As a part of its recently-released Global Energy Outlook study, the company ran three scenarios based on differing assumptions regarding how rapidly governments around the world would attempt to move to adopt emissions-reducing policies and subsidize renewables. The cases were labeled “Rapid” (the most aggressive assumptions), “Net-Zero” (assuming most governments would adopt ‘net-zero by 2050’ policies) and “Business as Usual”, in which progression would continue on the slower path seen to date.

In a COVID-19 hampered world in which governments across the globe are teetering on the brink of insolvency, the “Business as Usual” scenario certainly appears to be most likely to persist for the time being, given the multi-trillion dollar costs involved in the other two cases. Under that scenario, BP in fact projects that global demand will not only recover to pre-COVID levels seen late last year, but continue to grow through the year 2030.

Past 2030, BP projects that demand would then begin to slowly decline, but only by 10% by 2050. So, does BP in fact predict that we have reached “peak oil” demand? Not really, no.

But of course, noting all of that doesn’t really make for the sexy headlines that attract clicks on articles.

I’ve written so many pieces debunking various “peak oil” claims over the past 8 years that it’s hard to know what more to say about it now.

There is no question that the oil and gas industry is currently in a depression, the deepest one it has suffered since the mid-1980s. That depression is likely to linger for awhile, especially when one considers that the OPEC+ nations currently have about 8 million barrels of oil per day of spare capacity sitting on the sidelines. That spare capacity, which can be rapidly turned on by national oil companies, will be the first to fill any voids created by recovering demand.

That reality in turn means that the U.S. shale industry is going to be especially hard hit over the next few years as demand slowly recovers. In an excellent op/ed this week, Dan Yergin said that “As a result of a drastic cutback in investment, shale output will go in reverse and decline. When growth returns, it will be at a slower pace.”

Yet, the growth will return because, as Yergin further states, “shale is now established as a formidable resource. The shale revolution has transformed the world oil market and is changing concepts of energy security.”

Supply-side “peak oil” theory was always wrong in the past because its proponents invariably underestimated the enormity of yet-to-be-discovered resource that lay beneath the ground in various parts of the world. In more recent years, Demand-side “peak oil” theory has always managed to overestimate the ability of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles to displace fossil fuels.

BP, in its 2020 Global Energy Outlook, did not really predict that the world has already reached “peak oil” demand. But if the company had in fact done so, it would almost certainly have turned out to be wrong.

Forbes

188 Comments on "So, We’re Back To “Peak Oil” Again"

im only a disciple of whitey supertard president paul and he taught me the black art of psychohistory that he learned from hari seldon of asimov creation on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 10:34 am

i’m not in the decision making process. you can call me a mason or whatever. i’m just a tard and former paultard, just a crow watching from afar.

supreme goat controls everything
please respect supreme goat

im only a disciple of whitey supertard president paul and he taught my psychohistory which he learned from hari seldon in asimov creation on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 11:01 am

i’m just a crow looking from afar

supreme goat controls everything
im just an observer

convict rate now is hyperreal on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 11:32 am

2^N N>18 years this is not a trivial number people

I can type about a dozen digits per sex. Imagine how many digits one can come up with 18 years of typing

at this rate whitey supertards is in big trouble

only soluiton is to take muzz-19, 30 or more jabs

3 gorges dam gona croak soon on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 11:59 am

release too much water and suffer cavitaion and flooding downstream

release little adn subsidence and collapse and landslide upstream

IFuckCanadianPoliticiansInTheAss on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 12:13 pm

StarvingLion » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 12:52:10

Oil Complex in Total Collapse…
WTI failing…
Gold failing…

It is truly over. I love watching western civilization collapse, and I loved the fact they have no capable leader only shit low IQ brown diversity. I also love punjabi brown diversity. Brampton is full them, so I am not worry, a brown leader will emerge from Brampton, Ontario. Globalists love worshiping brown diversity, I will not get in the way of brown diversity. I fin all get my revenge for 30 year of globalists. At one time, I looked at the shy demand to be alive for this moment, even if I don’t believe in GOD. Apparently I will get what I demanded.

EXCLUSIVE: Soros-funded Open Society preps speeches for Canada’s Immigration Minister (PART TWO)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vnc4mAyYasQ

I love brown diversity and I will not get in their way I will stand by so they can work on a new civilization all by themselves.

They oppression of white people continues on Trudeau watch

Trudeau Liberals want more “hate speech” laws to regulate the internet

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyXyRyQpj9g

zero juan on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 12:19 pm

JuanP is sick:

IFuckCanadianPoliticiansInTheAss said StarvingLion » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 12:52:10 Oil Compl…

3 gorges dam gona croak soon said release too much water and suffer cavitaion and fl…

convict rate now is hyperreal said 2^N N>18 years this is not a trivial number peo…

im only a disciple of whitey supertard president paul and he taught my psychohistory which he learned from hari seldon in asimov creation said i’m just a crow looking from afar supreme go…

im only a disciple of whitey supertard president paul and he taught me the black art of psychohistory that he learned from hari seldon of asimov creation said i’m not in the decision making process. yo…

i dont want to live in a euro stamp sized country infested with muzz once a hero arise in a hundred years like milosevic who happens to love muzz just a lil bit less we have carnage said and then uncle sam will rain peace from the sky. i…

davidjasmine said This is a great improvement indeed. https://www.da…

Davy on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 12:32 pm

WOOF WOOF!!

Bochen777 on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 12:38 pm

Chinese equipment is pretty worthless:

Fire Breaks Out At Huawei’s 5G Antenna Research Lab
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fire-breaks-out-huaweis-5g-antenna-research-lab

Davy on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 1:06 pm

That fire was intentionally set buy the CIA bochenjuan.

stupid

Jesus is finally in the can on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 1:26 pm

people who refuse to swallow (((supremetard))) coq will swallow anything like the second coming of Rasputin

Davy on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 1:28 pm

Thanks for your support davidjasmine.

I agree completely and I am sure others do as well, based on the overwhelming support and enthusiam expressed here by may many supporters for my tireless efforts to neuter and moderate JuanP’s stink off my forum. A great improvement indeed! JuanP thge lunactic is on the run, and will soon be deported from my America. The best America there is.

Usually this is where I just declare victory, but, I think we both know that wont necessary (this time). With JuanP about to be deported for being a crazy fuck-faced illegal immigrant breaking all our laws, we all win. America wins. And freedom from opinions and insights I detest and disagree with, also wins.

When I say, ‘we’ all win, I really mean me of course.

Thanks again David. Nice name btw. Daves are considered amongst the top 1% in intelligence with is how I was selected to neuter and moderate all the dumbass stupid extremists here. Fact.

The board on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 1:47 pm

LMFAO, Yeap, Bo Chen JuanP is the real deal. I love when the rodent takes the bait!

All decked out in one of her favorite Islamic headbags, New Zealand Prime Minister vows to impose Islamic blasphemy laws if re-elected on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 2:11 pm

did i miss something
is this head bag some sort of louis vuton

harvesting soon?

world muzzie head diaper day feb12021 on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 2:12 pm

All decked out in one of her favorite Islamic headbags, New Zealand Prime Minister vows to impose Islamic blasphemy laws if re-elected

zero juan on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 2:32 pm

the rodent JuanP exposed:

world muzzie head diaper day feb12021 said All decked out in one of her favorite Islamic head…

All decked out in one of her favorite Islamic headbags, New Zealand Prime Minister vows to impose Islamic blasphemy laws if re-elected said did i miss something is this head bag some sort of…

The board said LMFAO, Yeap, Bo Chen JuanP is the real deal. I lov…

Davy said Thanks for your support davidjasmine. I agree com…

Jesus is finally in the can said people who refuse to swallow (((supremetard))) coq…

Hello said >> Most Americans are sick and tired of BLM-…

Davy said That fire was intentionally set buy the CIA bochen…

Davy on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 3:26 pm

LMFDAO, Yeap, Bo Chen JuanP is the real deal. I love when the rodent takes the bait!

dumbasses

REAL Dumb on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 3:28 pm

woof woof!

Davy on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 3:40 pm

So true REAL Dumb. So true.

woof woof!

Davy on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 4:05 pm

Shut up retards. Can’t you dumbasses see I’m busy outing Bo JuanP here?

stupids.

zero juan on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 5:00 pm

Comments from Bo chen Juan 777, lunatic:

Davy said Shut up retards. Can’t you dumbasses see I&#…

Davy said So true REAL Dumb. So true. woof woof!

Ricky said Nobody has all the answers to the world’s pr…

REAL Dumb said woof woof!

Davy said LMFDAO, Yeap, Bo Chen JuanP is the real deal. I lo…

bochen787 on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 5:05 pm

Huawei Lab Fire was US sabotage 华为实验室火灾是美国的破坏行为
https://archive.is/q0Bon

makati1 on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 5:23 pm

Sigh! Another day, another pile of retarded bullshit on PO comments. How this site has fallen, just like Amerika.

Davy on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 5:41 pm

Wak, talk to your buddy Bo Chen Juan 777 or 787. You know, the guy you have this great relationship with. He is a lunatic and you love him. Now you are whining about it. What a dumbfuck!

zero juan on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 5:43 pm

JuanP’s Chinese personality disorder:

bochen787 said Huawei Lab Fire was US sabotage 华为实验室火灾是美国的破坏行为 ht…

Anonymouse on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 5:49 pm

LOL.

Looks as if JuanP has been kicking your dumbass all week. Just like every other week really.
No wonder you’ve been so agitated and acting stupid lately. I mean acting like your usual self, sorry. Some dumbasses just cant handle getting their ass kicked by their betters. My advice, you should quit while you are behind. But if you dont LOL, and keep coming back for more moderating and neutering, JuanP is going to be all over your stupidity.

the stalker on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 5:58 pm

LOL.

Anonymouse on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 6:40 pm

Hey dumbass, while you are being ‘exceptionally’ stupid, sorry, I mean your usual self, maybe you could enlighten us about something.

Is being a so-called ‘stalker’, better or worse, than being an fuck-faced depressed illegal lunatic? Its hard to tell really.

In your diseased mind, you likely have some kind of loosely defined sliding scale or criteria for how you ‘rate’ your betters. I mean other than you hate everyone and want everyone to go away. Or die. Or both. We know that much lol.

Anyhow

I know your consider ‘fraud’ to be a pretty garden variety level insult. You seem to
regard ‘frauds’ for example, pretty mildly. Senile old man OTOH, is a worse than a ‘fraud’, but is not as bad as a maniac fuck-face lunatic. Does that sound right?

Maybe you could, if you find the tme, you might, I dont know, ‘document’ for us your rating system, from least worse at top, to worst at the bottom. In order of increasing ummmm, ‘extremism’? I guess to put it stupid terms you can understand

You should do that, right now. Take as much as you need. Like a year, or ten, or as along as required off to build, and document your list for us. Then, when someone says something that rubs your two-working brain cells the wrong way, which is pretty much all of them, we will know how ‘rate’ your disproval by tagging any of your stupid sock and ID theft, with a handy reference.

So, gather up your usual terms and phrases below, list is not complete of course ROFL, of all your usual stupid barnyard insults, and list them as instructed, in increasing order of severity.

Fraud
Senile
‘Stalker’
lunatic
maniac
fuck-face
etc

With your key, or rating system, we can tell a glance how your rage-rate the person you are socking or stealing their ID from. Right now, your all over the place with the rage and having a handy reference chart would be really helpful. Then well know what is going on with those 2 brain-cells of yours on any particular day.

dumbass

supertard annoy please respect supertard on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 6:47 pm

you’re an extremist lib, always bending on dispensing venomous diarrhear

华为实验室火灾是美国的破坏行为 on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 6:49 pm

Bo chen is a traitor. Don’t listen to the skumbag

Rick on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 6:51 pm

Anon, nobody gives a shit about you anymore. You are a nobody

Davy on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 6:57 pm

华为实验室火灾是美国的破坏行为, are you stupid or just not paying attention?

Bo Chen JuanP, is a depressed lunatic from Miami Beach, that is in Florida, with mental health issues. And a drinking problem. And he jerks off to Japanese women working out in Health Club settings.

I have already flushed that covey, idiot. He is not Chinese.

Dumbass.

makati1 on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 7:22 pm

Food for thought: Our farm caretaker’s handicapped son broke a bone in his leg Friday and is getting a titanium brace on Monday to give him support because his bones are brittle from his inability to walk.

What is special about that? No insurance. But… the TOTAL cost, including the doctors and meds, is…P10,000…or …$200US. Think what that would cost in FEE Amerika! $$$$$$$$

BTW: the major handicap was caused by a flu vaccine when he was two years old.

makati1 on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 7:24 pm

Anon, in the delusional goatherd’s mind, NO ONE is above him. He is next to Gawd. LOL

China's vast network of 're-education camps' and prisons where hundreds of thousands of Uyghur Muslims are detained is growing, new Australian mapping project reveals on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 7:30 pm

good harvesting

UK prison: Muslims screaming ‘Allahu akbar’ stab guard multiple times, claim to have bomb

today tomorrow forever as was each day since 1400 years ago

Predominantly Muslim minorities in the Xinjiang region, like the Uighurs, have been locked in camps as part of a government assimilation campaign launched in response to decades of sometimes violent struggle against Chinese rule on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 8:39 pm

muzz will “struggle” regardless because it’s jihad

why war with china? I’m not for it, i’m a sinophile

muzz in the US

Criticized for this open call to violence, Aslan doubled down on Monday, tweeting: “Been a few days since I tweeted that if GOP try to jam a SCOTUS thru B4 election we burn the f**king thing down & since the death threats & Breitbart headlines about my tweet have now stopped let me just say that if GOP try to jam SCOTUS through we burn the f**king thing down.”

harvest

In a barbaric act, a 23-year-old Hindu woman has been brutally murdered by two Muslim youth after she refused to convert to Islam after marriage. The incident has occurred in Sonbhadra, Uttar Pradesh. on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 9:21 pm

China good
Uncle Sam wants peace with China

According to the reports, the Uttar Pradesh police on Monday had recovered a beheaded body of a woman in a forest area near Preet Nagar under the Chopan police station area. The police officials said that the father of the deceased, Laxminarayan on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 9:23 pm

identified the deceased as Priya Soni from her shoes and clothes

Uncle Sam only wants the best for China

A Bulgarian court sentenced two men to life imprisonment without parole over a 2012 bus bombing that killed five Israeli tourists and a Bulgarian driver at the country’s second-largest airport on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 9:42 pm

Foxnews is lover of muzz
Wants uncle Sam start war with China
Uncle Sam doesn’t want to fight China
Uncle Sam only want the best for China

Uncle Sam is lonely uncle Sam want to be friends with China
Uncle Sam wants China to teach uncle Sam about harvesting

uncle Sam is lonely he likes to listen to old Akon song lonely I'm so lonely I got nobody for my own on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 9:49 pm

A Bulgarian court sentenced two men to life imprisonment without parole over a 2012 bus bombing that killed five Israeli tourists and a Bulgarian driver at the country’s second-largest airport

Uncle Sam needs China for a friend

uncle Sam wants 1000 Chinese troops anywhere in America to harvest all muzz they want on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 10:00 pm

Uncle Sam is a friend of China

Man in Islamic Veil Opens Fire on Paris Street… on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 10:04 pm

Jk Rowling writes about a fictional scenario like this in her new novel she is cancelled

Uncle Sam is watching all this
Uncle Sam likes China very much

pat on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 10:24 pm

The world is at last stzges of OIL AGE. The slow down of consumption, demand going to have no major impact on the eventual OIL supply, production and discovery. With what the major OIL fields hardly managing to maintain outputs (which were dead decades ago) using high pressure billions of gsllons of water not to last very long. Eventually the giants oil gields will be gone(event horizon moment anytime), the major oul production and with unprecedented depketion can take out half of oil production from other non-giant, unconventionsl fields. World MUST react to oil production cut to half and falling. The world economic collapse, demsnd decline has only made oil supply look abundant, vast. But oil is in last stages of its OIL AGE, END OF OIL. if 30% of oil is gone next moment!, the giznt oil fiekds go down the oil can rocket to $500. The oil shortages will be worse than any before, rationing the rich to squander away all the hughly expensive resource with none left for the rest.

pat on Fri, 25th Sep 2020 10:29 pm

THE GIANT OILFIELDS ARE DEAD, EVENT HORIZON ANY MOMENT. GIANT OILFIELDS(COVENTIONAL HIGH GRADE CHEAP) WHOSE SUPPLY NOT LAST LONG WITH DEAD DECADES AGO HARDLY ABLE MAINTAIN OUTPUT USING HIGH PRESSURE. WITH GIANTS GONE, the highly expendive low grade non-conventional seeing high depletion, SEE OIL CAN ROCKET TO $500

zero juan on Sat, 26th Sep 2020 1:20 am

A weirdo juan blowout:

Man in Islamic Veil Opens Fire on Paris Street… said Jk Rowling writes about a fictional scenario like…

uncle Sam wants 1000 Chinese troops anywhere in America to harvest all muzz they want said Uncle Sam is a friend of China

uncle Sam is lonely he likes to listen to old Akon song lonely I’m so lonely I got nobody for my own said A Bulgarian court sentenced two men to life impris…

China’s vast network of ‘re-education camps’ and prisons where hundreds of thousands of Uyghur Muslims are detained is growing, new Australian mapping project reveals said good harvesting UK prison: Muslims screaming ‘Alla…

FamousDrScanlon said “Famous Dr Scanlon is a Sinophobe!” Wr…

FamousDrScanlon said Antarctic Ice Sheet to melt, raise sea levels by 8…

Davy said 华为实验室火灾是美国的破坏行为, are you stupid or just not paying…

Rick said Anon, nobody gives a shit about you anymore. You…

yet another christmas without any lib urn said this year as last and always will be i’m the…

华为实验室火灾是美国的破坏行为 said Bo chen is a traitor. Don’t listen to the s

Davy on Sat, 26th Sep 2020 2:56 am

Woof.

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 26th Sep 2020 4:52 am

Some friendly advice from Europe, aka Science Central: quit that nonsense about “renewable energy not working” and build those 15 MW turbines.

Alternatively, adapt to an 1860 lifestyle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ta3eAhG8Lrc

(“you go left, I go right, we’ll cut them off at the pass, yee-haw!”)

You know what? Opt for “Bonanza” first, as society in North-America needs to be rebuilt from scratch after CW2 anyway, very agrarian and stuff. Your older brothers from Europe will drop by and teach you how to manufacture and install these things. That’s what older brothers are for.

I AM THE MOB on Sat, 26th Sep 2020 9:15 am

We have shortages of everything in America right now. And nobody knows why.

the sheeple will go insane when they find out the oil is about to run out.

This isn’t a giant conspiracy. Just a stop gap measure.

6 month global lockdown is coming.

Christmas will be canceled. Enjoy your ramen with your face shield

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 27th Sep 2020 2:09 am

“Labour secures a three-point lead over the Conservatives with Keir Starmer beating Boris Johnson for the first time amid anger over his handling of Covid”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8776611/Labour-secures-three-point-lead-Conservatives-Keir-Starmer-beating-Boris-Johnson.html

Now that’s a long time ago that Labour was in the lead! Expect this whole Brexit prank and own goal to fail majestically and that a PM Starmer will bring back the UK (England?) back into the Common Market, next to the likes of Switzerland and Norway (is good company), enormously solidifying the EU. It is unlikely that Brexit is going to be revoked, certainly not in the short term and it is probably better to reserve full European membership and Euro to convinced Europeans, but at least it will keep England from crashing and enhance the geopolitical clout of Europe as a whole, that will soon be forced to step out of the shadow from a collapsing US empire. Expect the Europeans, who ruled the world for centuries like no other before, not even the Romans come close, to be able to “walk” geo-politically in no time.

Political England is one of the world’s biggest snake pits, with every politician carrying a dagger under his cloths, ready to stab, especially within the Tory party:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8776247/Boris-Johnsons-enemies-spread-false-rumours-split-Carrie.html

“Boris is besieged: Johnson’s enemies spread false rumours about a split from Carrie and friends mutter about his health, as the PM faces rebellions from the Chancellor, Tory MPs – and even his own children”

So, We’re Back To “Peak Oil” Again

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