Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on September 23, 2020
So, We’re Back To “Peak Oil” Again
During a panel discussion in which I participated recently with three energy experts, the moderator asked us if we agreed with the recent projection by British oil giant BP that oil demand may have already peaked during 2019. Everyone on the panel answered with a firm “no.”
From my own perspective, I gave that answer in large part because all of the dozens of previous “peak oil” predictions – whether from the supply side or the more recent demand side reasoning – have turned out to be entirely wrong, often in hilarious fashion. From an historical perspective, it just seems like the safer position to take.
That’s not to downplay the position assumed by BP, whose internal expertise is undeniable. But it’s key to note that much of the media coverage the company’s findings have received portrays BP’s position as being far more absolute than it really is. The company’s position on “peak oil” is in fact highly-qualified.
As a part of its recently-released Global Energy Outlook study, the company ran three scenarios based on differing assumptions regarding how rapidly governments around the world would attempt to move to adopt emissions-reducing policies and subsidize renewables. The cases were labeled “Rapid” (the most aggressive assumptions), “Net-Zero” (assuming most governments would adopt ‘net-zero by 2050’ policies) and “Business as Usual”, in which progression would continue on the slower path seen to date.
In a COVID-19 hampered world in which governments across the globe are teetering on the brink of insolvency, the “Business as Usual” scenario certainly appears to be most likely to persist for the time being, given the multi-trillion dollar costs involved in the other two cases. Under that scenario, BP in fact projects that global demand will not only recover to pre-COVID levels seen late last year, but continue to grow through the year 2030.
Past 2030, BP projects that demand would then begin to slowly decline, but only by 10% by 2050. So, does BP in fact predict that we have reached “peak oil” demand? Not really, no.
But of course, noting all of that doesn’t really make for the sexy headlines that attract clicks on articles.
I’ve written so many pieces debunking various “peak oil” claims over the past 8 years that it’s hard to know what more to say about it now.
There is no question that the oil and gas industry is currently in a depression, the deepest one it has suffered since the mid-1980s. That depression is likely to linger for awhile, especially when one considers that the OPEC+ nations currently have about 8 million barrels of oil per day of spare capacity sitting on the sidelines. That spare capacity, which can be rapidly turned on by national oil companies, will be the first to fill any voids created by recovering demand.
That reality in turn means that the U.S. shale industry is going to be especially hard hit over the next few years as demand slowly recovers. In an excellent op/ed this week, Dan Yergin said that “As a result of a drastic cutback in investment, shale output will go in reverse and decline. When growth returns, it will be at a slower pace.”
Yet, the growth will return because, as Yergin further states, “shale is now established as a formidable resource. The shale revolution has transformed the world oil market and is changing concepts of energy security.”
Supply-side “peak oil” theory was always wrong in the past because its proponents invariably underestimated the enormity of yet-to-be-discovered resource that lay beneath the ground in various parts of the world. In more recent years, Demand-side “peak oil” theory has always managed to overestimate the ability of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles to displace fossil fuels.
BP, in its 2020 Global Energy Outlook, did not really predict that the world has already reached “peak oil” demand. But if the company had in fact done so, it would almost certainly have turned out to be wrong.
188 Comments on "So, We’re Back To “Peak Oil” Again"
makati1 on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 7:26 pm
I see that the demented children have had their nap and are back on PO to express their lack of intelligence. Not worth my time to remain here. Laterz!
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 7:44 pm
Mak
China is a paper dragon. And world can no longer afford to consume like pigs for as cheap as possible. We have to move back to a world of long lasting quality products. Think Amish furniture
makati1 on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 8:06 pm
This comment from a suicidal maniac who’s future plans involves a 22 bullet in his head? LOL
makati1 on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 8:16 pm
BTW: The 50’s are not coming back. Cheap shit is all you Amerikan tax slaves can afford. And even then most will not be buying much that are not necessities.
How many TVs could you afford if they cost more than you net in three months employment? My dad made $60 per week in 1950 and our first TV (1950) cost $500 in 1950 dollars. Minimum wage was $0.75/hr.
You are just dreaming, like some others here. Wouldah, Shouldah, Couldah is the mantra but…reality says it will never happen.
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 8:24 pm
Mak
I never said we were going back to the 50’s. What I mean is we are going back to a time when you don’t buy a 60 inch TV that you throw away in five years. We are going back to the 25 inch zenith that last 20 years.
Where is China going to get the oil and resources to keep growing at their size and scale? Russia has peaked and will decline fast. And the Saudi’s have peaked. The only thing really left is Iran. And they could likely fill the void for another 5-10 years. But then it would be gone. And if the middle east goes into flames. Cause Iran is the tiny minority muslims. Then it would implode china.
The only choice for the entire world is to wipe the chinks off the map. The OECD economies resource consumption has been flat for around 20 years. And they could keep that going for much longer.
China has simply ran out of room. If they had the oil reserves like the US. It would be the other way around. but they don’t.
And everyone in the entire world is coming down on the US and trump. But nobody is accusing him of starting this whole thing. And that is what the stage magicians call a “misdirection”..
India will provoke a regional conflict. Then the US will hit them with a false flag in SCS. And then Nuke first strike and knock out the dam.
And Americans burn their masks and dance in the streets! Followed by the Great reset in summer and UBI for all. And the world resets and tries to live within its means and sustainable.
Watch and see..
And hold onto your hat!
Scorched earth FTW!!
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 8:31 pm
Wow, an emotional Glenn Beck, begging that he is wrong, but says that he knows better and that CW2 will happen, probably in the wake of the elections:
https://youtu.be/XZ4U5KKEcPg
Beck worked for CNN and Fox.
bochen787 on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 8:33 pm
I AM THE MOB is right, this is the USA plan from day 1….
If China was smart it would launch the DF-41 and glass the top ten US cities right now since China gonna get nuked in first strike anyway…
But China’s greatest weakness and flaw is that it is too naive, too peaceful and has too kind a heart…
dog is supertard new sock on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 8:48 pm
everyone please respect supertard sock
please respect supertard
makati1 on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 8:55 pm
MOB, the 50s is when things were made to last and not throw away. A TV lasted decades, as did most things you bought. Planned obsolescence took over when the greed of the elite got too big. That was the time before plastics.
Amerika is the land of waste. That is not true of most countries and people.
no worries CW2 will be over in less than 1 second since somewhere in continential america there are surveilance aircrafts or satellite watching on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 9:06 pm
once the libs are sighted they surrender
similarly muzz-19 is a sentinel beacon so the body can detect convict-19. game over shortly after that.
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 8:31 pm
Wow, an emotional Glenn Beck, begging that he is wrong, but says that he knows better and that CW2 will happen, probably in the wake of the elections:
i wish CW2 breaks out soon because I purchased expensive binoculars on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 9:07 pm
with infrared
once a game is visible to me, im heading home to enjoy tasty meat
Breaking – Eiffel Tower evacuated after man shouting “Allahu Akbar” threatens to activate explosive device on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 10:49 pm
Harvesting soon?
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 10:50 pm
More documentation about the coming CW2:
https://youtu.be/AHbxVuxJ7g8
Interesting pictures from a Seattle tunnel, occupied by BLM-ers at [22:00].
As the female narrator says: if you are white and own a home in NYC, LA, Chicago, Seattle, Minneapolis and other big cities, YOU ARE SIMPLY TOO LATE! Too late to sell you home. You will be forced to take your losses and flee inland, totally broke.
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 11:06 pm
CNN King Creole Don Lemon wants to “blow up the system”:
https://youtu.be/UkRe6VNtlhI
We, the 2 billion from Eurasia, can only encourage him to do that, while we’ll be having great trouble surpressing our evil nahtzi grin at the thought of all these juicy new European Dominions lying in waiting out there, merely to be picked up by us after the Boogaloo.
The australian chap is clearly nervous at the idea of major “disturbance” in the US, because he knows all too well that if Americans go at each others throat on a continental scale, Australia will be at the mercy of China.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/13/culture-clash-has-australia-miscalculated-in-its-feud-with-china
“Culture clash: has Australia miscalculated in its feud with China?“
People in Melbourne, Sydney and elsewhere have a very small window of opportunity left to sell their homes to a less smart Aussie and plan to return to Eurosphere ahead of the foming events.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3102228/australia-has-painted-itself-geopolitical-corner-china-what
“Australia has ‘painted itself into a geopolitical corner’ with China, but what is Beijing’s trade endgame?“
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 11:11 pm
I AM THE MOB is right, this is the USA plan from day 1….
If China was smart it would launch the DF-41 and glass the top ten US cities right now since China gonna get nuked in first strike anyway…
But China’s greatest weakness and flaw is that it is too naive, too peaceful and has too kind a heart…
Rubbish, MAD-logic continues to apply. Relax, China and Greater Europe will come victorious out of this exercise and will run a multi-polar world order, after empire.
https://parisberlinmoscow.wordpress.com/2020/08/25/what-comes-after-the-three-anglo-empires/
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 23rd Sep 2020 11:23 pm
Europe prepares for the take-over:
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germanys-transport-minister-pushes-european-high-speed-train-system
“Germany’s transport minister pushes for European high-speed train system“
https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/low-carbon-energy/energy-transition/2020/eu-claims-central-role-in-global-hsub2sub-market
“EU claims central role in global H2 market“
Bye-bye Anglo Seven Sisters, you are going to be deep-sixed by the EU Seven Brothers.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 3:41 am
Abraham
The wood has been dried. And all we need to do is light a match.
A simple false flag will get this party started!
My question to you is “who’s gonna stop us?”
Not your soy boy cucked region of the world. Europe has no shared culture or language. That is why the UK wants the hell out. Merkel (the man) is about to leave. And Macroni of france is a nigger lover of the worst kind.
Your regions future is just like the economist magazine said “EurAfrica”
The great replacement of European whites is accerlating like a bullet train.
Keep em coming!
https://imgur.com/a/z7GHKux
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 4:13 am
The wood has been dried. And all we need to do is light a match.
A simple false flag will get this party started!
My question to you is “who’s gonna stop us?”
Nobody is going to stop you, but remember that the pile of dry wood is this time located in America.
Carry on, you fool. It is 330 million Americans, divided to the core over race, against 2 billion Eurasians, who are just biding their time to get you toppled from planetary pole position. Your own “1945” is rapidly approaching, with you at the receiving end. The prospect of gaining Australia will be the impetus for China to deal you the first blow in the SCS. Happy swimming in Eastern direction!
WW2-payback is around the corner.
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 4:42 am
Oil and gas, just pack your bags and go, never to return:
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/eis-schmelze-in-der-arktis-diese-schlacht-ist-verloren-a-4e88ba55-4dd0-4c15-ba5f-0ec3e4832af4
“The battle has been lost”
Arctic ice at 3.7 million km2 this month, the 2nd lowest in recorded history.
3.7 m km2 is less than France. In a not too distant future, the North Pole will be ice-free in the summer. Expect hydrogen-powered cruise ships with tourists and cargo ships to travel from northern Canada to Siberia during the summer. Expect population density to increase in both Northern Canada and Siberia.
i thought we are back to muzzie lovin on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 6:22 am
On This Day…
Sep 24, 2017: Ye Baw Kya, Myanmar
Children are among Hindus massacred
after refusing to embrace Islam: 28 Killed
Cloggie on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 6:43 am
Do I have a treat for you, my holiday pictures from last Monday!
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/09/24/maasvlakte-2-indian-summer/
“Maasvlakte-2 Indian Summer”
Jihadist bravado: Hossein Shariatmadari, a representative of Iran’s supreme leader and editor-in-chief of the state-run newspaper Kayhan, declares that on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 7:51 am
Trump will be a target of the Iranian military “for the rest of his life” for his involvement
global muzz harvesting soon?
Jihadist bravado on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 8:10 am
our muzz are emboldened. you’d think destruction of ISIS caliphate and daily roasting of chief muzzes woudl teach them something
no, muzz idealogy has been going on 1400 years so nothing will work
time to do the china way, harvest all global muzz
Not just the Iranian elites, but around the world, jihadis of all stripes have grown accustomed to assuming that infidels will succumb to their demands and threats. After eight years of the Obama administration, one can easily see why they were emboldened, as they built an alliance with the Western Left. Now Islamic lobbies operating in the West skillfully manipulate political correctness and fear of being called “racist” and “Islamophobic.”
only whitey supertard president "the irishman" general flynn "the honest one" can help us now on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 8:11 am
put him in charge and global muzz harvesting can commence
Pro-Sharia anti-Semite Linda Sarsour spotted at Louisville Breonna Taylor riots on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 8:16 am
why do we let muzz participate in western politics? muzz politic is sharia. totally incompatible
Former CNN Host Reza Aslan Threatens to ‘Burn the Entire F***ing Thing Down’
Hamas and Islamic Jihad fire rockets into Israeli cities as Bahrain and UAE sign peace deals with Israel
Chicago: Muslim tech executive charged with illegally exporting computer equipment to Pakistan
Niger: ISIS claims responsibility for murdering six French aid workers and Nigerien guide at giraffe reserve
France: Muslim migrants kill man, try to slit his throat, local media explains that ‘alcohol can drive you crazy’
zero juan on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 9:14 am
Weirdo JuanP:
Pro-Sharia anti-Semite Linda Sarsour spotted at Louisville Breonna Taylor riots said why do we let muzz participate in western politics…
only whitey supertard president “the irishman” general flynn “the honest one” can help us now said put him in charge and global muzz harvesting can c…
Jihadist bravado said our muzz are emboldened. you’d think destru…
Jihadist bravado: Hossein Shariatmadari, a representative of Iran’s supreme leader and editor-in-chief of the state-run newspaper Kayhan, declares that said Trump will be a target of the Iranian military “fo…
i thought we are back to muzzie lovin said On This Day… Sep 24, 2017: Ye Baw Kya, Myanm…
PlentyOfFish said You Have Nice Contents Thank y
bochen787 on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 9:19 am
I love China, Xi and CCP
bochen787 on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 9:19 am
Df-41 for the win!
Germany goes all in on financing the ‘Palestinian’ jihad, gives $62,000,000 to UNRWA on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 9:45 am
you always wonder how they could make bombs, travel, participate in riots etc.
and they were dress. so obviously they don’t work. then who support all this
kufar do. stories like this keep popping up. we love muzz a lot. we give them tons of money to blow us up
zero juan on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 11:25 am
weirdo Juan:
Germany goes all in on financing the ‘Palestinian’ jihad, gives $62,000,000 to UNRWA said you always wonder how they could make bombs, trave…
bochen787 said Df-41 for the win!
bochen787 said I love China, Xi and CCP
Davy on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 11:28 am
woof woof
pal muzz is the perpetual jizya class living life in luxury pay to slay and claiming victim on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 12:51 pm
a harvesting muzz machine behind the victim gate will be the most busy
muzz are either doing jihad, a supremacist, or a victim
dog supertard is a man of few words on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 12:52 pm
i wish supertard would publish on his blog so i can swipe it and make passive income 10 yrs from now
get to work supertard
zero juan on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 1:02 pm
weirdo Juan PeePee is having a long period of delusions from his personality disorder. He does not know who he is 1/2 the time. This has been going on for 2 years now
dog supertard is a man of few words said i wish supertard would publish on his blog so i ca…
pal muzz is the perpetual jizya class living life in luxury pay to slay and claiming victim said a harvesting muzz machine behind the victim gate w…
Davy said woof woof
Davy on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 1:04 pm
Woof! Woof!
France: Head of human resources at Charlie Hebdo flees home after ‘precise and detailed’ death threats on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 1:14 pm
really?
france could harvest their muzzies and live like first worlders with green electricity
if they keep doing this, at this point the weakness will be felt and french people will flock to muzzying
harvest soon
muzzielov on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 1:15 pm
W00f! W00f!
Arab Muslims are People of Color, Arab Christians are White on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 1:31 pm
so the division is being created all the time. in this case putting supremacist muzz in victimhood category.
whiteys in muzz countries are non person dhimmi so they go extinct because nobody cares about “supremacists”.
supremegoat on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 1:38 pm
W00f! W00f!
French Student Beaten in the Street for Wearing Skirt… on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 1:41 pm
without legs what fun is life
harvesting soon?
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 2:52 pm
Bochen787 is going to like this article:
https://www.unz.com/freed/china-and-the-washington-oscars/
“China and the Washington Oscars“
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 2:54 pm
Meanwhile in diverse France, where the only real racism comes from the darkies:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54251389
“Charlie Hebdo: French magazine’s head of HR ‘forced out of home’“
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 4:33 pm
Didnt make the above commennts.
Never been to France, or ever will be. Or China or anywhere else for that matter.
Looks like Ozark Dave is up to his old games again.
Shame on you for trying to paint me as a racysit bigot
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 4:44 pm
Meghan Markle stuns viewers of America’s Got Talent by sending a personal video message to finalist who spent 36 years in prison after he was wrongly convicted of rape.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8767151/Meghan-Markle-sends-heartfelt-message-Archie-Williams-Americas-Got-Talent-finale.html
As a long time royal watcher, I am constantly impressed with her style, as well as her progressive, inclusive messages and works. What can we expect next from the royal couple? I will keep you informed.
I love the new look btw, it really suits her.
zero juan on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 4:55 pm
weirdo juan Pee
French Student Beaten in the Street for Wearing Skirt… said without legs what fun is life harvesting soon?
supremegoat said W00f! W00f!
Arab Muslims are People of Color, Arab Christians are White said so the division is being created all the time. in…
muzzielov said W00f! W00f!
France: Head of human resources at Charlie Hebdo flees home after ‘precise and detailed’ death threats said really? france could harvest their muzzies and liv…
Davy said Woof! Woof!
Davy on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 5:02 pm
woof woof!
REAL Green on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 5:09 pm
So true widdle. So true.
woof woof!
so permacultism is dangerously unpredictable on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 5:54 pm
We should understand degrowth means more environmental damage if not handled properly because of the potential for green efforts being abandoned or becoming dysfunctional. This also means that degrowth policy could become irrational by destroying more than it saves.
zero juan on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 5:57 pm
weirdo juan PPee:
so permacultism is dangerously unpredictable said We should understand degrowth means more environme…
REAL Green said So true widdle. So true. woof woof!
Davy said woof woof!
Cultural Enrichment: UK Pair Dabble in Slavery… on Thu, 24th Sep 2020 5:58 pm
another muzzie pair in texas was busted for slavery too
harvesting soon?