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Page added on January 20, 2020

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OPEC, IEA or EIA Completely Wrong in 2020 Oil Market Analysis

Consumption

Somebody big has got their analysis of the 2020 oil market flat wrong.

That’s the bottom line from a comparison of supply-and-demand forecasts provided by OPEC, the International Energy Agency in Paris, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed in December to deepen output curbs until the end of March.

OPEC’s own research team sees that pact continuing to drain global stockpiles throughout 2020. By contrast, the IEA and EIA see inventory levels rising — even if the deal gets implemented in full. And even if were to be extended for the entirety of 2020.

The OPEC+ group agreed in December to lower their combined output target by a further 500,000 barrels a day, plus a voluntary additional reduction of 400,000 barrels a day from Saudi Arabia, which depends on everybody else meeting their targets.

OPEC’s latest forecast shows global oil inventories falling at an average rate of almost 100,000 barrels a day over the course of this year assuming the December deal is implemented as agreed and runs through March. That rate of draining could hit 300,000 a day if the measure were to last throughout 2020. Even if the group fails to implement the deal in full, with output remaining at its December level, OPEC’s numbers show there would still be a small decline in global inventories this year.

The IEA and the EIA both have very different, and less-bullish, outlooks. Both see stockpiles continuing to build, even if the agreed output cuts were to be implemented fully and extended for the whole year.

The same differences are apparent in the views of the three agencies on the effectiveness of the OPEC+ output cuts since they were introduced at the start of 2017.

OPEC’s supply-demand balances show that global oil stockpiles have fallen by 653 million barrels since the output cuts were introduced at the start of 2017, with draws in both 2017 and 2019 offsetting a small build in 2018.

Once again, though, data from the IEA and the EIA both imply that the output restrictions have done no more than limit the size of global stock builds since the start of 2017. After initial draws in 2017, stockpiles were replenished the following year and then remained essentially flat in 2019. The net result, according to the EIA, is an increase in global oil inventories of 100 million barrels between the start of 2017 and the end of 2019, while the IEA data show them rising by 142 million barrels.

So where is all this oil? Well, each agency will have slightly different things that it counts, different methods for counting and then, of course, their assessments can differ.

Divergences aside, OPEC and its allies remain resolved to press on with output cuts aimed at draining excess stockpiles, Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a Jan. 13 interview on Bloomberg television.

“Our endeavor in OPEC+ is to try to bring inventories to a certain level, where it is within the contours” of recent years, he said. That range should be around the average of the last five years and the period from 2010 to 2014, he said. That suggests that the group doesn’t have a precise target.

OPEC’s latest monthly report pegs OECD commercial oil stocks at 2.92 billion barrels at the end of November, a little higher than the 2.91 billion reported by the IEA. That puts inventories at between 8.9 million barrels (IEA) and 17.5 million (OPEC) above the average level for the last five years.

But there is one thing on which the IEA and OPEC do agree.

OECD commercial stockpiles are sufficient to cover 60.6 days of forward demand, 0.6 days below their latest five-year average. This is a much more useful measure of stockpiles than simple volume. And it would suggest that there’s agreement that OPEC has got inventory levels back to at least one of its measures of success. Now all it has to do is keep them there over the next two years as the high inventory levels of 2015 and 2016 drop out of the rolling five-year average.

RIGZONE



231 Comments on "OPEC, IEA or EIA Completely Wrong in 2020 Oil Market Analysis"

  1. Cloggie on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 9:53 am 

    Tesla-3 best selling car in Holland and Norway, #7 in the US.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/19/tesla-model-3-1-best-selling-automobile-in-netherlands-norway-in-2019/

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/19/tesla-model-3-7th-best-selling-car-in-usa/

    Norway (by far), Holland, Sweden and Germany (in that order) are the leading adopters (per capita) of the global renewable car transition.

    No wonder Tesla is investing in Germany.

  2. Cloggie on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 9:54 am 

    The good news:

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/18/fossil-vehicle-sales-in-global-freefall-down-4-7-in-2019-electric-vehicle-sales-continue-to-grow/

    “Fossil Vehicle Sales In Global Freefall — Down 4.7% In 2019! Electric Vehicle Sales Continue To Grow — CleanTechnica Report”

  3. Cloggie on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 9:58 am 

    Tesla announces 1 million car battery:

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/17/is-tesla-a-step-closer-to-the-1-million-mile-battery/

    “Is Tesla A Step Closer To The 1 Million-Mile Battery?”

  4. Hello on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 10:35 am 

    >>> Tesla-3 best selling car in Holland and Norway

    and fucking made in the USA USA USA.
    Take that europe !!!!

  5. Richard Guenette on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 10:36 am 

    Americans are the world’s largest producer of trash. No country wants America’s crap.

  6. Hello on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 10:39 am 

    >>>Americans are the world’s largest producer of trash. No country wants America’s crap.

    I don’t think so. It’s probably africa and other 3rd world holes. They produce a lot of useless people.

  7. Richard Guenette on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 10:44 am 

    “Hello”, the only useless people are those politicians in Washington D.C.

  8. Richard Guenette on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 10:46 am 

    The USG is a terrorist government. Amerikans are dumbed down, drugged up and lazy.

  9. Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 11:03 am 

    Richard: Any time one claims that a huge group of people are all X, they’re spewing nonsense.

    Where are your credible citations? I’ve never done an illegal drug in my life, aside from getting a minor contact high in a rock concert or party as a kid. So how does that make me, a lifelong resident of red state flyover country, USA, “drugged up”? I’d also be interested to compare college grades, SAT scores, GRE scores, and our libraries (my house is stuffed full of books on lots of subjects I’ve read over the last 4 decades), before we decide how “dumbed down” I am compared to you.

    If you meant “many Americans”, fine, but get it right — and you should still have meaningful citations for such a claim. Else it’s just the useless babbling one often expects around here.

  10. Cloggie on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 11:06 am 

    >>> Tesla-3 best selling car in Holland and Norway

    and fucking made in the USA USA USA.
    Take that europe !!!!

    Holland and Norway (and Switzerland) are Protestant Anglophile countries. The other countries far less so, thank God.

    Hello is constantly agitating against third world immigration, even in crude terms, yet at the same time champions the US, indicating that he hasn’t a f* clue where the drive for third world immigration comes from.

    Germany never had a chance to win WW2, but if they had, Switzerland would now be 100% white.

    Unfortunately the Anglos and Soviets won and now Hello is facing the potential eradication of his native Switzerland, that de facto ended up in the US empire-sphere of influence. And nevertheless shouts “USA, USA, USA!”

    The good news is that the US is about to descend in a civil war, which would imply the liberation of Europe from the US empire, so it can team up with post-communist very political incorrect Russia and declare George Soros his multicultural society for null and void.

    I have to say that our black friend Anonymouse from Toronto has more understanding of the power-structure of the Jewknighted States in hiw toenail than our Alpen-jodler.

    Arghhh!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rPAnxsSk40

  11. Richard Guunette on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 11:29 am 

    This is the idiot JuanP’s mindless sock that once was Kenz. FUCK juanPee
    Richard Guenette said The USG is a terrorist government. Amerikans are d…

    Richard Guenette said “Hello”, the only useless people are t…

    Richard Guenette said Davy needs to put in a padded room.

    Richard Guenette said Americans are the world’s largest producer o…

  12. More Davy ID Fraud on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 11:38 am 

    Richard Guunette on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 11:29 am

  13. Richard Guenette on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 2:36 pm 

    I am not American and what disgusts me is when a lot of Americans are bragging that they are “number 1”. For decades, the US bombed countless countries, overthrew democratically-elected governments in countries who opposed imperialism. The US military kills civilians (especially women, children and infants), puts profits before people, creates terrorism and turns a blind eye to genocide, torture, allows people (LGBTQ people, people with addictions, people with disabilities/complex medical needs etc.) to suffer in prisons (which are usually for-profit), mass shootings (which the US calls it a “human right”- so called “gun rights”), misinformation (media, government of all levels). The US is unprepared for disasters (of different types).

  14. Richard Guenette on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 2:43 pm 

    The US allows infrastructure to crumble, people to go broke (from greedy healthcare corporations who make themselves), treat war veterans like dirt (they get no help from their politicians who pretend to “support” the “troops”- more US troops are committing suicide). America was never a democracy, it started the genocide of the Native Americans and is already a police state. America has no enemies just bullshit, hypocrisy, arrogance, greed and bigotry.

  15. Richard Guenette on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 2:46 pm 

    Trump is a one-term President.

  16. full woke supremacist muzzies jerk maximum low english on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 3:48 pm 

    While I’m enjoying muzzie coq, patriots are out demonstrating for Luke.
    The next muzzie caliphate may even be in America and we need Luke to roast muzzies then burry muzzies at sea but muzzie is not a muzzie.
    My head is spinning tryna think about this.

    And now muzzie Quaresh is replacing muzzie died like a dog baghdadi.

    Then muzzie preacher was overweight and preached for ISIS in many muzzie mosques. But ISIS is not muzzie but has muzzie preacher. It’s like muzzie baghdadi is not a muzzie but was roasted as a muzzie. Why is a muzzie preacher part of ISIS when ISIS is not muzzie.

    My head is spinning tryna think about this.

  17. More JuanP ID Fraud on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 4:37 pm 

    full woke supremacist muzzies jerk maximum low english on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 3:48 pm

  18. makati1 on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 5:47 pm 

    Good morning guys. I see Davy has been busy using my name when I am off line…for the last 20 hours.

    https://www.tesladeaths.com/ 116 so far.

    Ah, the techie dream is killing its dreamers. You couldn’t pay me to ride in a Tesla. If you gave me one, I would sell it and buy a normal, safe, Toyota. They should be banned everywhere.

  19. JuanP on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 5:51 pm 

    Mak, give it a rest. This has been my doing. You are a stupid old man with no life. You come on here to feel something. How Sad!

  20. Davy on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:00 pm 

    Oops, sorry makati1. I was projecting again.

  21. makati1 on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:06 pm 

    The above is JuanP obviously

  22. More Davy ID Fraud on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:11 pm 

    JuanP on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 5:51 pm

    makati1 on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:06 pm

  23. JuanP on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:23 pm 

    I’ve been away for so long and this forum just got sadder. I’ve lost hope in humanity the way it is.

  24. JuanP on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:41 pm 

    I am here every single day in multiple different personalities. I am really sick but I love doing this. I love when people are unhappy because of ME!

  25. More JuanP is a fraud on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:42 pm 

    JuanP on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:23 pm

  26. JuanP on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:45 pm 

    Listen up you selfish pricks, this is about much more than you all and me. I routinely attack and bully other posters anytime someone presents an opinion contrary to mine.
    Consequently, I require constant and unrelenting MODERATION and NEUTERING as a means of balancing my vomit.
    I’m here to stay, board. I’m retired and have all the time in the world to be stupid and worthless.
    Welcome to hell, Forum

  27. Anonymouse on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:51 pm 

    Mak, be careful this is coming to the p’s and you are old and weak. Stay indoors and wear a mask please. I do not want to lose you.

    Deadly Virus Finds a Breeding Ground in China’s Food Markets
    Leaning over a metal cage stuffed with live hens in Shanghai, Ran looked for just the right specimen for her chicken soup. The 60-year-old was shopping at one of China’s wet markets, where sales of freshly slaughtered, unpackaged meat have become the focus of an investigation into an outbreak of a potentially deadly lung virus. Three people have died and more than 200 have been infected by the virus, a cousin of the cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which killed almost 800 people 17 years ago. Known as 2019-nCov, the new coronavirus was first found in people who shopped or worked at a wet market in the central city of Wuhan. The pathogen may have been transmitted to humans from live animals sold there. Sixty years after the Asian influenza pandemic and almost two decades after SARS, China remains ground zero for the emergence of many dangerous new infections. Asia’s wet markets, where shoppers mingle in narrow spaces with everything from live poultry to snakes, are seen as a key reason why.

  28. Duncan Idaho on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 7:24 pm 

    The virus may be coming, and the planet may get back to a more survivable population.

    “adding the brand has sold “well over a billion bottles” since its introduction in 2003.”

    In CA, 2 buck chuck is back to $1.99 again.
    Have a bottle or ten before the virus arrives.
    It is the proletarian thing to do—

  29. More Insane Widdle Old Davy ID Fraud on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 7:33 pm 

    JuanP on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:41 pm

    More JuanP is a fraud on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:42 pm

    JuanP on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:45 pm

    Anonymouse on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 6:51 pm

  30. makati1 on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 7:46 pm 

    The above is obviously the forum idiot, JuanP

  31. supremacist muzzies jerk max low english on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 7:51 pm 

    Gents the mourning period for muzzie died like a dog baghdadi and muzzie died like a dog soleimani is over. You can eat something.
    Break your fast and have some iftard dinner.
    Muzzie is now burried at sea like a muzzie but it’s not a muzzie. Muzzie is safely inside some fish stomach.

    Enjoy your meal

  32. makati1 on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 8:04 pm 

    JuanP, you can stop the muzzie crap

  33. JuanP on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 8:56 pm 

    makati1 on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 8:04 pm
    I never said anything, I’m never here, not even a second.

    Maybe it’s my socks but not me. I have better thing to work on like my blog which I plan to work on in 10 years.

  34. JuanP on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 9:04 pm 

    my socks work for me and for you too madkat
    I don’t have to do anything. I’m in my boat all the time and there’s no innernet there.
    I don’t own any hi tech stuff. It’s a waste of time.

  35. REAL Green on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 9:34 pm 

    Our widdle JuanP preoccupations gotten REAL Strange Davy.

    Can we please go see the docter? REAL soon like?

  36. makati1 on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 9:47 pm 

    I’m back! Anything since “good morning guys!” at 5:47 PM is fake by others.

    Ever consider that the US may have planted the new virus in China? Why do you believe they didn’t? Ditto for HIV in Africa. Even the pig virus. Food for thought.

    I am safe and not concerned, but it is coming to Amerika. Be patient.

  37. Supertard Davy on Mon, 20th Jan 2020 9:53 pm 

    When the love for muzzies is greater than the love of love, the world will know peace.
    – cat stevens, bob marley, peter gabriel, willie nelson (join statement quote)

    dude way ahead of his time.

  38. Cloggie on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 3:32 am 

    Greta against Trump!

    https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/weltwirtschaftsforum-in-davos-im-live-ticker-a-d13901c9-ff68-4dc5-9c4f-681760f2be07

    Live today in Davos. Donnie will be speaking 11:30 CET. The show will be lead by a jew, Richard Edelman. He kiked… errr… kicked off at 7:30:

    83 percent of workers worldwide are afraid of losing their jobs, three quarters fear that they will not be able to keep their social status. 75 percent would consider the current economic system to be unfair, 66 percent no longer trust the leading elites in politics and business to solve the problems successfully, and 56 percent see today’s capitalism as a force that changes the world for the worse. Edelman and his PR agency collect the numbers every year for their trust barometer, a global trust index. His conclusion: the growing insecurity, fear and inequality undermine trust in democracy and capitalism. Edelman also has a clear call to the company bosses: 92 percent of the employees wanted their boss to express themselves and be publicly involved when it comes to issues such as climate protection, immigration, the ethically responsible use of technologies and artificial intelligence.

    Wtf has this to do with climate? Send him back on a plane to NYC, where he belongs and get down to business.

    I’m with Greta!
    Make the World Greta Again!

  39. Cloggie on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 4:17 am 

    Yet another climate record: first light frost in the Netherlands as deep in the “winter” as Januari 21:

    https://www.ed.nl/binnenland/uitzonderlijk-nu-pas-eerste-matige-vorst-van-deze-winter~a1dc0c89/

    -5 C

  40. Davy on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 5:17 am 

    “I’m with Greta! Make the World Greta Again!

    You and Gretta have a little in common.
    You both virtue seek a travelling obsession and you are both FAKE Green with thinking techno solutions will make the planet Green again. LOL. Greta deserves to be pissed her generation is fucked but her handlers are FAKE Green delusionals. The cloggo is definitely a FAKE Green delusional and a PBM war pig. At least Gretta is not hyping a PBM.

  41. Davy on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 5:27 am 

    Cloggo’s macron

    “French Popular Uprising: Revolution Or Frozen Conflict?”
    https://tinyurl.com/tf667zt unz

    “The current ongoing social unrest in France appears to pit a majority of working people against President Emmanuel Macron. But since Macron is merely a technocratic tool of global financial governance, the conflict is essentially an uprising against policies that put the avaricious demands of financial markets ahead of the needs of the people. This basic conflict is at the root of the weekly demonstrations of Yellow Vest protesters who have been demonstrating every Saturday for well over a year, despite brutal police repression. Now trade unionists, public sector workers and Yellow Vests demonstrate together, as partial work stoppages continue to perturb public transportation.”

  42. Davy on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 5:32 am 

    Cloggo cw2

    “Sweden Has ‘Lost Control’ After Bombings Spike 60% In 2019, Says MP”
    https://tinyurl.com/v8axp7t zero hedge

    “A Swedish politician says that the government has ‘lost control’ after new figures reveal a 60% rise in bombings in 2019 over the previous year, amid what Reuters reports as “a surge in drug-linked gang-violence.” “Unfortunately, this government has lost control of what is happening in Sweden. Now in the morning, we woke up again to news of bombs and explosions, this time in Stockholm’s inner city and in central Uppsala,” wrote Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson in a recent Op-Ed for Aftonbladet.”

  43. Davy on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 5:36 am 

    trouble on the cloggos southfront

    “Leaked EU Letter Sparks Row Over Turkey Aid Cuts Linked To Gas Drilling Off Cyprus”
    https://tinyurl.com/tgbe5pa zero hedge

    “Turkey has long claimed it’s drilling within its territorial rights, based on its lone claim to the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (since 1974), which supposedly allows Ankara to share revenues from Cypriot gas exploration. Ultimately, Turkey has laid claim to a waters extending a whopping 200 miles from its coast, brazenly asserting ownership over a swathe of the Mediterranean that even cuts into Greece’s exclusive economic zone.”

  44. Cloggie on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 5:38 am 

    What I like about the Yellow Vests is that we are talking about an almost exclusively white insurrection, although the movement doesn’t wants to be seen as such. Not yet.

    But it IS!

    Macron maybe a technocrat and a transitional figure, he at least is moving in the right, that is Right Gaullist direction, that is to the East, hounded as he is by the right-wing populists.

    Macron clearly is “suffering” from the “Anglo derangement syndrome”.lol

  45. Davy on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 5:46 am 

    This is a nice pic for the cloggo

    https://tinyurl.com/yxya8p6r zero hedge

  46. Cloggie on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 6:55 am 

    German wind is only stalling onshore indeed.

  47. Cloggie on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 7:00 am 

    Donnie getting tough with Greta:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7910695/Greta-Thunberg-tells-world-leaders-fight-climate-change.html

    “Donald Trump tells Davos audience he rejects environmental ‘prophets of doom’ as grim-faced Greta Thunberg looks on after she told delegates ‘nothing has been done to fight climate change'”

    In a surprise move, Trump said the US will join an initiative called the ‘one trillion trees’ project in order to conserve ‘the majesty of God’s creation and the natural beauty of our world.’

    But he said technical innovation, not restricting economic growth, is the way forward. ‘Fear and doubt is not a good thought process,’ he said. ‘This is not a time for pessimism but a time for optimism.’

  48. Cloggie on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 7:03 am 

    Same link:

    “The IMF cut its global growth estimate for 2020 to 3.3 percent, saying that a recent truce in the trade war between China and the US had brought some stability but that risks remained.”

    Collapse!!!

    LOL

  49. Davy on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 7:12 am 

    “But he said technical innovation, not restricting economic growth, is the way forward. ‘Fear and doubt is not a good thought process,’ he said. ‘This is not a time for pessimism but a time for optimism.”

    Well this Trump quote is old thinking for sure. Trump is a joke in regards to environmental reality. It is a tragedy the Dim’s are making him stronger by their corruption. Technical innovation is stalling but still important. The biggest problem is human behavior and Trump’s comment that “This is not a time for pessimism but a time for optimism.” is just plain wrong. What is needed is optimistic pessimism which embraces the truth of things once pessimism has been accepted. This is the proper way forward at least for those who can handle the truth. Many sheeples can’t so they will need to be fed Kool aid. Techno optimism is just digging the hole deeper instead of what is needed and that is stop digging and figure out how to live in the hole. The trap of our own creation and represents a path dependencies and a carbon trap with no way out for civilization “AS-IS”.

  50. Davy on Tue, 21st Jan 2020 7:20 am 

    “The IMF cut its global growth estimate for 2020 to 3.3 percent, saying that a recent truce in the trade war between China and the US had brought some stability but that risks remained.” Collapse!!! LOL”

    LOL is right cloggo! The cloggo is unable to think deeper economically. The cloggo thinks in terms of binary competition where the size of a number alone has significance. In this case he points to “3.3%” making “collapse” absurd. What the cloggo does not understand is the economic thresholds of globalism are extremely tight. He is also oblivious to the reality of growth estimates, debt levels, and bad debt. A growth estimate will not take into account the dangers of excessive debt and especially non-performing debt. If a growth estimate included these contributing factors in addition the real cost of climate change and widespread environmental destruction then this number would surely be negative. Globalism is growth based and must have longer term “Real” growth. Short term degrowth is possible but not longer term. This deception of which the IMF is famous for can last some time because of the gullibility of people like the cloggo.

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