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Page added on April 3, 2016
Is This the End of Cheap Food?
Enter your local supermarket and it’s hard to miss the mile-long piles of fresh produce. And when those heads of lettuce or cauliflower are in season, the prices can be low enough that feeding yourself doesn’t have to cost an arm and a leg. But that may not last much longer.
The world population continues to grow, after all, particularly in developing countries, where there’s been an increased appetite for protein. That’s put strain on the world’s grasslands, where livestock is raised for meat and milk production — and it’s worried scientists. A study recently published in the journal Nature Communications indicated that farmers would need to double their overall use of phosphorus in order to keep grasslands healthy enough to feed all that cattle. Such land hasn’t typically been fertilized directly by farmers, who do tend to add the mineral to arable land, but, with little likely relief on the horizon, that may need to change.
Could anything help the growth in production come back?
There’s also a worry that crop yields may no longer grow in the way we’ve come to expect. In the past, the use of fertilizers and genetically modified seeds boosted the amount of food that could be grown on a given piece of land. But most of the gains are behind us. The production of cereal crops, such as wheat or barley, hasn’t shown any meaningful increase per acre in the last two decades in the U.K., according to a report released in December by the Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures at the University of Sheffield. And that contrasts markedly with steady output gains from 1960 through 1997.
Could anything help the growth in production come back? Sure, some technology has helped make minimal gains, though Shawn Hackett, who, as president of Hackett Financial Advisors, closely monitors commodity markets, warns, “I don’t see anything right now as the next big act.” In short, the land available is stretched as far as it can go.
But the situation gets worse. The sun is entering a period of reduced activity as part of its typical 11-year cycle, which is measured by how many dark spots appear on its solar surface. A lower count of sunspots has previously coincided with reduced crop yields, according to data crunched by the U.S. Department of Agriculture from 1866 through 1973. And while the relationship between the two outcomes isn’t precisely understood, NASA has pointed to steadily decreasing sunspots through 2020.
A bigger concern is whether the sun’s cycle gets stuck at the low point. “If we go to zero sunspots, it could be a disaster,” says Don Coxe, chairman of Coxe Advisors. He points to the so-called Maunder Minimum — or “prolonged sunspot minimum” — period from around 1645 through 1715, when sunspots all but vanished and temperatures plunged to a level where London’s river Thames froze over periodically. At least for some of us, that news may be chilling enough to prompt stocking up on canned soup and (frozen) veggies.
82 Comments on "Is This the End of Cheap Food?"
Davy on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 10:22 am
Young grasshopper. You use BAU to transition out of BAU. Someone like you are never going to get anywhere because you are doing it backwards. Listen to people that know instead of opening you suck so much.
PracticalMaina on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 10:28 am
:)You’re cute when your mad, it was about 20 below freezing this morning so no I am not starting any outdoor planting yet, I am just on here, trying to convince some folks that they should not buy into the industrial agro will save us meme that you love so much. Industrial agro is the reason people starve, you do not need fossil fuels to plow a field.
BTW the only reason I started posting was to antagonize Makati on his doom forecast being much later than he originally suggested. You and him are the same in my eyes, cheerleading the end, tearing down any optimistic news. Wondering why the wheels have not come off and when your doomstead outlook will pay off. But it probably wont because even if shit goes down you have shown that you are too quick to throw your anger from one person to another, not a good trait.
PracticalMaina on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 10:32 am
I use BAU coming from the proud owner of an online bought chicken coop, how many farm vehicles you got Davy? Youre burning fields when you have goats, not sure the logic there.
Davy on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 11:45 am
PM, got 400 acres to take care of and it is just me. It is cheaper for my time to sell goats and buy a coop, grasshopper. I have several farm vehicles but I am investing in hand tools and implements that someday will work with a horse. Lots of old stuff laying around that is still good. Just burned three fields. When you do it alone you have to have three pieces of machinery with lots of water spraying abilities. PM, you are the guy that jumped my ass this morning so if you want to keep this up we can but others get tired of it.
PracticalMaina on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 12:11 pm
Fair enough man, not trying to jump your ass this morning, just get sick of the back and forth when there is better shit to discuss. Easier to try to convince you to move on to more stimulating discussions for the group than 4 or 5 people. I got all excited last week when it seemed like you were gonna placate the opposing side so that the discussion could move to bigger or better things. Not hating on your effort you’re doing better than me, obviously. It gets me a little wound up, I am in kind of a shitty transitional spot where I can farm someone elses land, family members for example, but its pretty tough to have true low carbon permaculture when you are driving to get to your food plot every day.
Plus the deer population sucked last year so I am still pissed about that. O well this warm winter and lack of snow should have helped….hopefully
I had to give you shit about the coop being BAU, even though I see the logic in buying the coop as well, never a fun way to find out your diy plans weren’t as predator as finding your livestock dead. Some parts of BAU will make sense to keep around. This all being said I am gonna throw my 2 cents at you because I am a know it all young buck after all. Do more veggie gardens, way less work than animal husbandry, IMHO. Even with my set up of not being able to get to my garden nearly as often as I want, squash, potatoes and tomatoes never seem to miss me over a few days..and squash tends to spill out of its area and is good at keeping most critters off the rest of the garden, your goats probably would not care about some little thorns and see it all as a treat though.
marmico on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 1:16 pm
you PM to know your a pup after brownie points
Nah, he’s a dipshit doom porn parrot.
Speaking of cheap food, America has it in spades.
http://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/food.jpg
All the doom porn aggregators that want to wind the clock back to the Beaver Cleaver era are fuctards with PM on the À la carte menu.
PracticalMaina on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 1:20 pm
Yeah you can buy corn syrup real cheap, its wicked good for you marmy, go drink a five gallon bucket.
PracticalMaina on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 1:27 pm
Marmy these guys need you’re input. Tell Mexico city how far the ICE has come. http://www.vox.com/2016/4/2/11347448/mexico-city-air-pollution-car-ban
Three of the most important electricity producing company’s in the US are on the ropes, does saying this make me a doomer?
I am not really a doomer either bitch, I am who I am, someone who will observe whatever direction things go globally, and adapt accordingly.
PracticalMaina on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 1:35 pm
If only those cars only got 42 mpg, well nothing would change, because a super efficient ice is just a waste of fuel and emissions when it is sitting idling in traffic.
marmico on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 2:47 pm
What a doom parrot dipshit. You should hang out with barefoot makati in the Phillipines.
He’ll show you how to negotiate a blow job with a ladyboy.
Did you know that the U.S. consumed 3% more oil in 2015 than it did in 1980?
That’s why 42 mpg in 2025 is significant. It will mean that that the U.S. will consume less oil in 2025 than in 1980. And with cheap food there is plenty of bucks to spend on $5 per gallon gasoline.
Davy Greenacres should build an electric charging station pad adjacent to the road on his doomstead. He’ll make more money (and teach his sons) with that effort than bringing honey to the local farmers market.
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 2:59 pm
marmi, it’s not real food any more dip shit. Big yields of nutritionally deficient pseudo food. Why do you think there are now hundreds of millions who are simultaneously obese and malnourished?
WTF do you care as long as you can find another misleading graph.
The nutritional deficiencies of the western franken food you grew up on are probably a main factor in your mood disorder.
Practicalmaina on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 3:02 pm
Marmy I don’t need advice on how to get bjs, I can just find you sweetlips
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 3:03 pm
marmi, read em and weep
Junk Food Is Bad For Plants, Too
How a steady diet of fertilizers has turned crops into couch potatoes.
http://nautil.us/issue/34/adaptation/junk-food-is-bad-for-plants-too
let me know if you need some help, being that this is real science and all.
marmico on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 4:02 pm
What I find amazing is that, in season, I can buy a head of broccoli for 49 cents which was grown in California.
The broccoli is grown with science, the price is about markets. Now when there is a big buzz about that tall slender blonde cutie with the birkenstocks around the cucumber stall at the farmers market on Saturday afternoon, remember this.
On Monday morning she is going to hop into her Tesla 3, drive to the train station, take the train into the city center and rip makati’s ladyboy balls off as a corporate attorney.
You fuctards don’t have a clue about specialization of labor. Heh Daddy Davy Greenacres, I don’t want to be a beekeeper, I want to write apps for smart phones.
Davy on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 4:28 pm
Now I know what you do in your kennel cubical. Good luck marmi with smart phone aps. There life span might be limited. Do you have a plan B when you itty bitty portfolio is trounced and smart phone aps are a memory from the past?
marmico on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 4:51 pm
Are you fucking serious? There are 122 million households in the U.S. How many households need to be beekeepers?
Well, the National Honey Board says that there about ~120,000 beekeepers. Arithmetically it means that there are 121.5 million households that are not beekeepers. What a fuctard.
I note that Missouri is not a top 5 producer.
http://www.honey.com/newsroom/press-kits/honey-industry-facts
If I read the Honey Board fact sheet right, domestic honey producer revenues are a dollar per year per capita. Sheesh, the equivalent of 2 broccolis, in season, on sale.
Practicalmaina on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 5:05 pm
What the hell are you rambling about? Apiaries are important to food security because pesticides and pollution cause a majority of the bee colonys every winter in the US to collapse, bees that get personal attention and aren’t trucked all over the US for pollination have a much better shot at making it.
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 5:12 pm
marmi, you probably have dead taste buds from a life time eating mad science foods. Try eating some real produce grown is a proper back yard garden with natural composting. There is no comparison to taste and nutritional levels as well. You could just as well eat 49 of cardboard. Once you eat real produce it’s like have black – you won’t go back.
marmico on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 5:46 pm
I love me spinach.
http://entropymag.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/popeye_janice.jpg
122 million households in the U.S. don’t need to each produce broccoli, honey or spinach. It’s specialization of labor and capital fuctards.
Sheesh, I didn’t know that North Dakota was the top honey producer until Da Google Search Honey Board told me so.
Why is North Dakota the top honey producer?
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 6:41 pm
Enjoy your cheap franken produce marmi, prices will be going through the roof in the near future.
Last Month Was The Hottest March In The Global Satellite Record, And The Arctic Is Still Sizzling
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/04/04/3765965/hottest-march-satellite-record/
Marmi gonna be a cali climate refugee within a decade.
Like I told you last year, el nino won’t make any difference in the brave new world.
No, California’s drought isn’t over. Here’s why easing the drought rules would be a big mistake
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-drought-20160404-snap-htmlstory.html
Drought-Stricken California Misses Water Conservation Target
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/drought-stricken-california-misses-water-conservation-target-38144141
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 6:43 pm
Drought-hit Palau could dry up totally this month
“Drought-stricken Palau could dry up completely this month, officials warned Monday as the Pacific island appealed for urgent aid from Japan and Taiwan, including shipments of water.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/drought-hit-palau-could-dry-totally-month-090749369.html
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 6:45 pm
Fewer than 1 in 25 Seattleites can really eat locally
“How many of Seattle’s residents could live off food grown in their city?
If abundant P-Patches and backyard gardens teeming with kale come to mind, you’re like many residents who assume urban agriculture in Seattle could support 50, 80 or even 100 percent of the people who live in the city.
It turns out that the actual number is drastically lower. A new University of Washington study finds that urban crops in Seattle could only feed between 1 and 4 percent of the city’s population, even if all viable backyard and public green spaces were converted to growing produce.”
http://www.sciencecodex.com/fewer_than_1_in_25_seattleites_can_really_eat_locally-173348
Davy on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 7:07 pm
Marmi, why is everything with you about “the” money? I have bee hives so when the grocery stores are bare I have some. I am not interested in a harvest only healthy hives as a food bank in case of hard times. Besides bees are cool. It is exciting to get into a hive and have bees all over you. Get a hobby dumbass your life will be more rewarding.
marmico on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 7:28 pm
Do you think that I give a crap about feeding makati’s ladyboy?
The fuctard figured it out that if he imported (sponsored) the $5 cock sucker ladyboy, American entrepreneurialism would take over, and the ladyboy would leave the $5 makati social security suck for the $50 corporate suck. Presumably, the $50 protein sperm is superior.
Way cheaper for makati to export himself.
Tell me, when were Seattle residents ever self-sufficient with food? Heh man, I am sick and tired of eating salmon every fucking day. Can we go into the Cascades and trade salmon for beaver tails.
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 7:56 pm
Agriculture on the Brink
“When it comes to farming, global temperature increases spurred by anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD) are bad news. Higher temperatures mean more droughts, wildfires, soil depletion and seasonal changes that, in general, have deleterious impacts on growing food.”
“The warning signs are already abundant.”
“Industrial-scale farming, upon which the massive global population — already 7.3 billion and growing by a million people every four and half days — relies on and impacts soil through the use of nitrogen fertilizers, which are energy intensive to produce and which deplete carbon in the soil.
“This erodes the soil’s ability to hold nutrients, and starts a positive feedback loop,” added Professor Bomford. “A lot of our soils now rely on irrigation rather than rainfall, which depletes groundwater reserves.”
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/35468-agriculture-on-the-brink
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 8:00 pm
Hey we can just eat more sea food.
Scientists sound West Coast global warming alarm
“Climate change is exacting a toll on west coast waters, and Oregon, California, Washington and British Columbia can’t afford to wait for the federal government to take action, according to a coalition of scientists.
Hypoxia and acidification are making the coastal waters inhospitable to sea life, according to the researchers.”
http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/34231258-75/scientists-sound-west-coast-global-warming-alarm.html.csp
makati1 on Mon, 4th Apr 2016 8:06 pm
Ap, reading the above new comments this morning, I thought I had wandered into some grade school playground until I came to your posts. I’m glad there are a few here with an adult intelligence and some common sense. My list of “ignore” people is getting longer as they have nothing worthwhile to read or debate. But, they sure prove the ‘dumbed down’ state of America today. They live under the motto: “Thinking can be dangerous to your health”
I can tell from your rebuttals to their ignorance that they have not changed any so ignoring them saves me time for other interests.
It is an beautiful Tuesday morning here in Makati. The weather for today is partly cloudy with a 10% chance of rain and a high of 95F. Humidity of 56% with a breeze from the SSE at 9 mph. 77F tonight and 97F tomorrow. A typical Philippine summer day. I hope yours is as nice.
derhundistlos on Tue, 5th Apr 2016 3:20 am
PracticalManiac-
Davy’s comments are always stimulating and thought provoking as opposed to your mumblings. So do us all a favor and put a cork in your little pie hole.
derhundistlos on Tue, 5th Apr 2016 3:26 am
Big Makti Attack-
So how goes the Philippine food riots? This should come as no surprise considering the population density in the past 40 years has increased from 33 persons per square kilometer to more than 330 today.
makati1 on Tue, 5th Apr 2016 6:16 am
der… what food riots? Nothing happening here in Manila or in the news. The Philippines does not have 47,000,000+ (~15% of the US population) of it’s citizens in the soup lines like the Us. Stop that government handout and see what happens in America. THEN you will see food riots … with guns.
Have you looked at the density of US cities where 2/3 of your population lives?
New York City = 40,000 per sq.mi.
San Francisco = 18,000 per sq.mi.
Philadelphia = 12,000 per sq.mi.
etc.
The other 1/3 live in the burbs, also lacking food production except for small farms, corporate farms and a few garden plots. ALL are dependent on foreign imports (20%) and the <5% of Americans that still farm.
I can hear chickens in the city and it is not unusual to see veggies growing in odd plots of land and even flower pots. The trees in the city are mostly coconut palms, which produce a good crop for the taking. Ditto for fig palms, etc. Even at the farm, the local wet market has all you need and it is not canned or frozen. So, who is starving?
OK, I'll grant that there are some beggars in the city, but I doubt if I see 20 a year and mostly they are from organized Muslim groups in Mindanao, raising money for their separatist activities around the holidays. I am always suspicious of a beggar in decent clothes and over weight. The latest scam is to have a babe in their arms. It is also illegal to give them any money. Beggars are in every city in the world. I saw many living on the streets of Philly when I lived there. Not good advertisement for the "Land of the Free".
I'm not sure where you get your info, but I think you should question your source.
Davy on Tue, 5th Apr 2016 7:57 am
Come on Makatti, you can’t have your cake and eat it. You can’t blame the world for its ills and say everything is fine in the P’s. Population growth alone is something very dangerous for a small nation like the P’s. The P’s are not critical to the global system anyway. It is important and important to Asia but there are plenty of Asian nations to replace the P’s. Your adopted country just doesn’t matter and never will. Talking it up daily here is a joke and does a disservice to everyone’s search for reality. There are so many more important nations. The same is true of your constant and focused attempts to blame everything on the US. The reality is much more grey and dispersed globally. Sheeples are believing what you preach because it is good popcorn to pass around. Everyone likes nice salty buttery popcorn but it is not good for you. Show some balance and fairness and you will increase everyone’s wellbeing including your own.
makati1 on Tue, 5th Apr 2016 8:40 pm
der, I just saw news about the event in Mindanao and it is regrettable, but I would not take all of it as true. That is a region where Muslim independence is strong and the Us military is involved in a lot of killings, in the name of “the war on terrorism” of course. It was probably also hit the strongest by the el nino weather. I would guess that there is more to the story than what you read in Western news. There usually is.
Even so, it is only a foretaste of things to come in all parts of the world, even the Us, if the Food Stamp/Soup Lines were to end. And they will. Wait and see.