Heinberg: The Law of Diminishing Returns

63 Comments on "Heinberg: The Law of Diminishing Returns"

GregT on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 12:53 am 



“I’m in denial that civilization is about to collapse? It’s just too scary?”

Over the past decade Tom, many parts of the world have already collapsed, at least when viewed from our perspective in the west. The divide here between the haves and the have nots is growing at an exponential rate. Many people within our societies are already living collapse. Just because you are in denial, does not make that reality go away.

“I wanted to see if it would make any difference.”

If there wasn’t a problem to begin with, why try to find a solution? Sorry Tom, you’re not making any sense.

“Doomsday groups with a long string of failed predictions are usually ignored.”

Throughout history Tom, people that questioned the status quo have always been ostracized, imprisoned, or worse. People are afraid of change, and they will fight it with any means available. Denial is a very powerful human trait. If I predict that you will die, and you are still alive, that does not mean that my prediction has failed. Premature perhaps. You are going to die, nothing will change that. Not human exceptionalism, ingenuity, or technology.

I was much like you Tom, ten short years ago, I was also in a complete state of denial. I strenuously resisted information, like you still do. I have now spent many thousands of hours in search of the truth. I have found it, and I am comfortable with it. I do not fear my own death. I feel a responsibility to leave something behind for my children. I have chosen to do my part to live in a sustainable manner on this planet, for future generations, and all life on earth. Unfortunately, my ‘sacrifice’ will not make much difference with so many people in a complete state of denial such as yourself. That doesn’t mean that I will not try.

Civilization has been in a slow state of collapse since the 60s Tom. Perhaps you are too young to understand this, or are in a state of cognitive dissonance. Complex non-linear systems tend to reach tipping points, before they rapidly collapse. The signs are everywhere around us for anybody who cares to open their eyes. You Toms2, have your eyes wide shut.

toms2 on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 1:32 am 



Apneaman:

“Why do you feel the need to argue against something you say is not happening? Why doth you protest so much?”

Why do people watch “Doomsday Preppers”?

-Tom S

GregT on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 1:57 am 



“Why do people watch “Doomsday Preppers”?”

Is that a TV show Tom? Perhaps a bit less TV, and a tad more realism might help?

Probably not. I have read your blog.

Apneaman on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 2:18 am 



Like Nony you avoid a genuine answer to a sincere question. I have asked the same question to many who share your views. No one has given a sincere answer; just deflection, ignoring and bad jokes like yours and some bullshit about taxes. Funny how such a simple little question is met with so much avoidance.

toms2 on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 3:31 am 



GregT:

“Over the past decade Tom, many parts of the world have already collapsed…”

Peak oilers were predicting CIVILIZATION would collapse meaning no more machinery or food shipments. That just hasn’t happened anywhere.

Once again, you’re interpreting EVERYTHING as evidence in favor of your theory, which is just classic unfalsifiable pseudoscience. Some places have wars, recessions, insurrections, ISIL, etc. Things like that happen all the time anyway. They are not evidence of your theory.

One of the most common pseudoscientific errors, which is practiced repeatedly in all doomsday groups, is to interpret anything as evidence in favor of the theory. You guys are doing that over and over again. You have interpreted personal tragedies, stock market fluctuations, changes in the interest rate, actions of the Fed, recessions, and so on, as evidence of your collapse theory. That is just CLASSIC pseudoscience. That is practically the DEFINITION of a crackpot theory, and you’re doing it over and over again.

“Many people within our societies are already living collapse. Just because you are in denial, does not make that reality go away.”

You’re doing it again. You’re interpreting ANYTHING as proof of your theory. That is CLASSIC UNFALSIFIABLE PSEUDOSCIENCE, and you do it again and again. Lots of people have personal tragedies like unemployment, disease, AIDS, alzheimers, etc. That is not evidence for your theory.

What peak oilers predicted was that the tractors and trucks would stop running circa 2007. That did not happen anywhere.

“Throughout history Tom, people that questioned the status quo have always been ostracized, imprisoned, or worse. People are afraid of change, and they will fight it with any means available. Denial is a very powerful human trait.”

…They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright Brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.
-Carl Sagan, responding to the kind of point you are raising, which is standard within crackpot groups.

GregT, the fact that people laugh at this stuff and dismiss you, doesn’t mean you’re right. You guys are not Galileo. Galileo had valid scientific theories with falsifiable predictions that were confirmed. You guys just have nothing like that. There are 100 deluded crackpot weirdos for every Galileo, and you are the former.

“I was much like you Tom, ten short years ago, I was also in a complete state of denial. I strenuously resisted information, like you still do. I have now spent many thousands of hours in search of the truth.”

Oh yay, a conversion story. You are following the crackpot group believer script, to the letter. “I used to be like everybody else, but then I encountered group X and saw the light…” In many doomsday groups, these conversion stories are REQUIRED.

Your personal history of conversion makes no difference. It is NOT evidence for your theory. The die-off predictions keep failing, over and over again, year after year, decade after decade. That fact is not mitigated by your own conversion story.

Maybe you converted into something that was WRONG.

-Tom S

toms2 on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 3:33 am 



GregT:

“I have now spent many thousands of hours in search of the truth. I have found it, and I am comfortable with it.”

This stuff doesn’t even meet the most basic criteria of a valid theory. A valid theory requires falsifiable, specific predictions beforehand of things which weren’t happening anyway. Then, those predictions must be CONFIRMED. That is the VERY FIRST step of a valid theory.

Nothing like that is happening, or has ever happened within the peak oil collapse movement. Its doctrines are riddled with massive factual and logical errors, its predictions fail over and over again, and it obviously does not meet the most basic criteria of a valid theory. As a result, it is NOT the truth. You are simply NOT carrying out a valid thought process here.

“I have found [the truth]”

You certainly haven’t found the truth. You’re a blinkered true believer in a crackpot prepper group. You understand less about these things than 99.99% of the population. The reason everyone ignores this stuff is because they can see through it, and you can’t.

The reason you can’t see through it, is because you’ve internalized all the standard crackpot thought practices, and you apply them automatically now. You’re doing ALL of them. You are mired in unfalsifiable thinking. You tell a conversion story. You accuse outsiders of conspiracy. You believe your tiny group has discovered the truth in defiance of all experts. You’re repeating the standard line of “our group is persecuted just like other truth-tellers in history” as if you were Galileo. You repeatedly interpret ANYTHING as evidence in favor of your collapse theory. You dismiss massive failures of prediction as “errors of timing”. In short, you’re just doing ALL the standard crackpot pseudoscience practices, over and over again. You copied those practices from others in this group, and you do them automatically now. By now, you don’t even ask why the predictions keep failing so badly.

What I suggest you do, is take a step outside your tiny crackpot group. Start reading about pseudoscience, crackpot groups, and falsifiability. You will find that it describes what you’re doing exactly.

By now, you’re so mired in it, that I don’t think you’re ever going to escape. I’ve known several people who anticipated and prepared for doomsday every single year for 30+ years, then died of natural causes. However, I thought I’d give it a try.

-Tom S

nony on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 3:44 am 



Peak oilers had their predictions fail but lack intellectual integroty to admit

toms2 on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 3:46 am 



Apneaman:

“Like Nony you avoid a genuine answer to a sincere question. I have asked the same question to many who share your views. No one has given a sincere answer”

I have given you a genuine answer. I’m not sure what you misunderstood.

I visit this forum for the same reason people watch “Doomsday Preppers”. It is comedy and tragedy at the same time. People are fascinated by this kind of thing.

I’m also very interested in pseudoscience, and the history of pseudoscience.

I am also interested in why people continue to believe collapse/doomsday predictions long after all the predictions have failed.

Those reasons are why I’m here.

-Tom S

toms2 on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 3:53 am 



GregT:

“Is [Doomsday Preppers] a TV show Tom? Perhaps a bit less TV, and a tad more realism might help?”

I must admit, that got a hearty laugh out of me. This stuff is “realism”…

GregT, Doomsday Preppers is a DOCUMENTARY about people like you! It’s non-fiction from National Geographic. It has repeatedly showcased peak oilers.

-Tom S

toms2 on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 4:00 am 



GregT:

I wish to emphasize that I’m not trying to insult you, and I don’t think you’re a dummy. I have followed several doomsday groups already, and most of the adherents are more intelligent than average, as you are. I’m sure you’re a smart guy, but you’re trapped in a pseudoscientific crackpot group.

All the best,
-Tom S

toms2 on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 4:01 am 



Anyways, guys, I’m going to bug out here. I need to get back to my job. I’ll read whatever responses you post to me. I’ll probably be back in six months or so, although I don’t think I’ll post as much.

-Tom S

Davy on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 4:45 am 



Tommy Two, you are a perfect example of a nutter. BAUtopian nutters like to call doomers “nutters” but they themselves are nutters. I accept the description because I am fighting BAU and to fight BAU you accept being a nutter. You BAUtopians often do this nutter name calling by claiming failed predications. What prediction and who’s? Please tell me Tommy Two because there are hundreds of us doomers on the net now. Many different points of view from different locations discussing and predicting often in generalized ways. We are not the religious cults you would like to paint us into. You want to paint us this way because we are using reality and science that scares the shit out of you. Why the frig else are you here on this forum other than you are scared shitless of the possibilities we talk about. You are just too afraid to ignore our message and move on to some MSM tabloid diversion. Reality is hard to discount and that is what Tommy Two of the world are doing.

Tommy Two’s of the world are terrified of their world changing. I remember my bullshit management training seminars years ago that preached change and how we had to embrace it. Back then the change was progressive change. It was destructive change but progressive with modernity and increased complexity. I am now saying this change will occur in the other direction but change is change Tommy Two. You can’t handle change. You are a classic pussy that acts high and mighty but in reality you are a weak.

I do not know when, where, how a collapse will unfold but I can say with reasonable accuracy that we have serious problems that are getting worse. Collapse is likely in some way shape or form per the data available to anyone with reasonable faculties in multiple disciplines. So anyone like you Tommy Two that comes on here to mock and criticize us doomers is actually showing your insecurities and lack of answers.

I can talk back to the Tommy Two’s of the world about the cornucopian failed predictions. The BAUtopians of all colors have been preaching this or that fail prediction of progress. Instead we have decay that is glossed over by the glitz of MSM and marketing to delude us into thinking we have a bright and hopeful future. You guys believe in fairly tails. You believe the DOW commercials and laugh at the funnies. Life is good be happy the TV says so.

Everywhere I look I see the failure of BAUtopian life with its belief in human exceptionalism with technology, complexity, and energy intensity. The BAUtopian call for a dangerous efficiency and further dependence on a brittle complexity lacking resilience and sustainability. This has become a religion of death because it will lead to the death of many. We doomers are questioning this blind belief in progress with technology, energy intensity, and complexity. We are saying it has no future and it is in fact a trap.

My message is that this state of affairs cannot continue. I am saying make some kind of effort mental or physical to adjust and mitigate to the decay of a world we are all utterly nakedly dependent on. Tommy Two you just want to wish upon a star that all is fine. You want to claim all those predictions failed so everything must be fine. Obviously you have little understanding of what makes the world tick. Go back to your TV reality shows because that is your reality. You need to ignore the real reality of destructive change by watching your reality TV. What a moron.

Nony on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 2:05 pm 



From the Wiki article on Heinberg:

“Heinberg, after two years in college and a period of personal study, became personal assistant to Immanuel Velikovsky in November 1979 and after Velikovsky’s death assisted Mrs. Velikovsky editing manuscripts.[1][2] He published his first book in 1989, Memories and Visions of Paradise: Exploring the Universal Myth of a Lost Golden Age,[3] which was the result of ten years of study of world mythology. An expanded second edition was published in 1995.[4] He began publishing his alternative newsletter, the MuseLetter, in 1992. His next book was published in 1993: Celebrate the Solstice: Honoring the Earth’s Seasonal Rhythms through Festival and Ceremony.[5]”

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Who was Velikovsky?

Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immanuel_Velikovsky

“His books use comparative mythology and ancient literary sources (including the Old Testament) to argue that Earth suffered catastrophic close contacts with other planets (principally Venus and Mars) in ancient times.”

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NUT…TERZ!!!