Heinberg: The Law of Diminishing Returns

63 Comments on "Heinberg: The Law of Diminishing Returns"

Nony on Wed, 8th Apr 2015 9:11 pm 



I think Heinberg has diminished. Guy has been off on his predictions for the last 20 years. Peaker crank who won’t learn. At least Staniford, Rapier, and Hamilton try to distance themselves from some of their own screw-ups.

Plantagenet on Wed, 8th Apr 2015 10:10 pm 



Actually this is a petty good video. Weinberg makes a clam, reasoned presentation of his views.

Recommended.

GregT on Wed, 8th Apr 2015 10:27 pm 



Every once in a long while planter, you actually say something that makes sense. You are one very bizarre individual.

Nony, on the other hand, has an agenda. To misinform, and to confuse.

Why is that Nony? Who are you working for? What exactly are you trying to accomplish?

rockman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 6:59 am 



Isn’t life nothing more than a series of “diminishing returns” for the most part? I won’t bother listing them…we all observes them daily. When has anyone here invested time, energy or money pursuing any goal when the strived for anything but the best possible income? When given two similar potential investment possibility who picks the one with the lower ROR? When looking for a job who goes for a company not as attractive as the more interesting one? When voting for a politician who goes for the one they think is the second best candidate?

So human nature pushes us to pick the choices that are at the top of our list. But what happens when the 1st choice is no longer available? Does one decide to not get a job if they can’t hire on with their first choice? Does one not vote if their candidate doesn’t win the primary? Does one no invest their savings if the higher yielding option isn’t available?

Does the management of an oil company resign their positions because they can’t find conventional prospects with the high yields like those discovered 50 years ago or do they accept the diminishing returns of developing fossil fuels? Does a steel maker close up because the higher cost of energy reduces its profit margin 50% or does it accept the diminishing returns from the effort?

Does a 65 yo man who can’t sleep thru the night without getting up to pee a time or two decide it isn’t worth living or does he accept the diminishing returns on what life has to offer? LOL. Remember the line from “Jurassic Park” about nature always finding a way to circumvent obstacles placed in its way? Can’t the same be said for mankind? And to quote another movie, “Independence Day”: “We will not go quietly into the night!” We will not vanish without a fight! We’re going to live on! We’re going to survive!”

I wonder if I can fit all that on a tee shirt and sell it to oil patch hands? LOL

Revi on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 7:15 am 



I think he’s right on. We are experiencing diminishing returns. Look around you.

Dave on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 7:34 am 



GregT is spot on today.

Don on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 11:56 am 



I like the way Gail put it a couple weeks back.

“I keep talking about diminishing returns in my talks. As I think about the differences between China and the United States, it strikes me that in many cases the difference has to do with diminishing returns. China has chosen the inexpensive way to do things, such as serving fish with lots of bones, not doing much to accommodate the handicapped, and using radiator heat put in buildings long ago. There is a more polished way of handling these issues, but the cost of making an upgrade may not be proportional to the benefit.”

Apneaman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 12:52 pm 



“Jurassic Park” is a movie. What all life forms have in common is that they go extinct. Especially when their environment changes. There have been 14 major extinction events on this planet (5 mass) and each one was preceded by a massive increase in CO2 that took tens of thousands of years to build up. We have released essentially the same amount in less than 300 years. Why do people think you can release 10 billion tons of gas into the atmosphere every year and not expect consequences? Some people will go quietly into the night, but there is going to be plenty of screaming and gnashing of teeth. In Independence Day the alien telepathically describes to the president (Bill Pullman) how they strip one planet after another of it’s resources and life. The Prez calls the aliens “LOCUSTS” We are the locusts….and the hour is late.

jjhman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 1:37 pm 



I’ve read two of Heinberg’s books and read many of his postings. Smart guy with a reasoned, sensible message and in this case delivered with genuine sincerity. I wonder who he thinks his audience is.

He’s chosen his words carefully. Notice he talked about scientists analysing BAU 40 years ago but he didn’t mention that it was the Club of Rome. That was smart because the COR report was, as he said, a good predictor of the future but has gotten so much bad, inaccurate reporting that it would detract from the message.

He mentioned a need for lower population. There are very few constituencies where there will go over without formal hysteria. The same goes for the concept of less stuff, less money, less “ease” stated or implied in his message.

While agreeing with every single thing he said, though, I have to declare his message to be the equivalent of pissing in the wind. Without a smoother selling job he isn’t going to convince anybody of anything. I’m afraid he has the entirty of human nature against him in this format. The best he can hope for is cheer leading those who already agree with him.

Mark Ziegler on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 2:39 pm 



Like T Bone Pickens said: We peaked in 2005 with conventional oil. It is fracking that saved us. But for how long?

viewcrafters

steve on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 3:15 pm 



Why is there a different story on Zero Hedge? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-09/saudi-arabia-going-it-why-saudis-just-boosted-oil-production-record-high

Are they wrong as well or does the truth lie in the middle?

Nony on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 3:48 pm 



Finally listened to the video. The guy while having that same sort of Chris Martensen earnestness is an economic idiot.

The funniest thing was listening to his RT interview, where he thought that supply and demand were broken. That price would not move to make demand equal supply. Where he was totally unable to explain the recent price drop (happening with increasing consumption). Guy is a joke.

Spec9 on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 5:31 pm 



“Nony, on the other hand, has an agenda. To misinform, and to confuse.
Why is that Nony? Who are you working for? What exactly are you trying to accomplish?”

Why does everything have to be a conspiracy?

Maybe he just has a different opinion. Sheesh.

Nony on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 5:37 pm 



hug…

Apneaman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 5:58 pm 



Spec9, don’t be so fucking naive. What are the chances that someones opinions just happen to be contraian to any and all criticism of BAU? Nony’s track record of comments are very clear. Everyone is wrong except him. Everything is fine and econ 101 trumps physics & chemistry. He is all about attacking authors, scientists, industry people and data that runs counter to his worldview or he is a paid shill or both. Either way he is a useful idiot that will be abandon like the rest of the 99% – unless he is willing to kill for them when the time comes.

Apneaman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 6:12 pm 



Almost everyone has their price.
…………………………..

Robert Reich: The rich have bought America’s silence
The former secretary of labor on the insidious ways colleges and nonprofits are beholden to their wealthy donors

“I had a similar exchange last year with the president of a small college who had invited me to give a lecture that his board of trustees would be attending. “I’d appreciate it if you didn’t criticize Wall Street,” he said, explaining that several of the trustees were investment bankers.”

http://www.salon.com/2015/04/08/robert_reich_the_rich_have_bought_americas_silence_partner/

Nony on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 6:13 pm 



Bottom line is the peaker predictions of the mid 2000s have been dramatically wrong, just as they were generations before. The believers in ingenuity and economic motivation have again beaten the Malthusians so far. You are left with people here, who are like the last fans cheering for Spinal Tap (a dead/dying movement). Deffeyes/Campbell etc refuse to address their own repeated screw-ups. People like Hamilton, Rapier and Staniford also tend to try to deflect from their own screw-ups and/or say “I wasn’t the craziest”.

The whole peaker movement has not really been about curiosity and making best estimates. It has been biased by liberal and/or environmental wishcasting. The peaker predictors LIKED they idea of a peak. And it affected their estimates. And shows through in their failure to address their poor predictions.

GregT on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 6:36 pm 



“Maybe he just has a different opinion. Sheesh.”

Not an opinion Spec. Nony is just making shit up to promote an agenda. My question is why?

Apneaman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 6:42 pm 



Your way off accusing everyone you call a peaker of wanting to see peak oil. Yes a few “think” want to see civilization fall, but they are in the minority and most who claim to want it are really calling for change-not the suffering and likely early deaths of their loved ones and neighbors. So what if the predictions were off by years or a decade? The trend is clear. Your strategy of trying to divert people to dead people (Hubbert) and away from reality only works on the gullible newbie and only if they go no further. At this point even the unlearned can see that everything is unraveling and picking up speed. If “Everything is Awesome” why waste your time here, Nony? Cui bono?

Nony on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 6:52 pm 



http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059978294

“But where are the peak oilers to rebut these claims? The answer is that many appear to have vanished, fallen off the map or shifted their views, or just don’t want to talk about it.

Over the last several weeks, EnergyWire has been trying to get in touch with lead peak oilers — by phone and email — to no avail. The key figures behind the theory have either passed away, including Hubbert and investment banker Matthew Simmons, or are plain unwilling to defend their story.

Several peak oil founding figures were contacted for this article. They either didn’t return calls or emails or were followed into a maze of shut-down websites and disconnected phone numbers. These include former Princeton University professor Ken Deffeyes, famed British geologist Colin Campbell, French petroleum engineer Jean Laherrere, author Mike Ruppert, Swedish physicist Kjell Aleklett and Boston University professor Cutler Cleveland.

Others who still hold to the theory did respond, though they tend to lack the expertise of that first generation of peak oil or have redrafted their angle to favor more technical interpretations in light of new developments. One such source is Ron Swenson, who publishes a website called “Ecotopia” from Santa Cruz, Calif. Swenson promised access to some or all of the experts listed above, as well as documents that would prove peak oil is still viable, but then he never followed through.

The part of Swenson’s site that deals with peak oil is called “The Coming Oil Crisis.” It serves as a kind of clearinghouse for those in the founding generation of peak oil and promotes links to their works. The links appear to end around 2007, but Swenson says that is beside the point.”

——–

Peakers were wrong. That is why TOD died. That is why so many sites like Dieoff or Savinar’s site died. That’s why Staniford went silent. That’s why Google searches for peak oil…well…peaked…and are way into decline. It’s a dead movement. Only people left are those who refuse to face facts because ideology and emotion trump truth to them.

GregT on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 7:05 pm 



Do you have any idea how ridiculous you make yourself look Nony?

That finite resources run out is not theoretical, it is fact.

You remind me of a grade three student, arguing with the teacher that two minus two equals one, and not zero. Your thought process is flawed, and completely irrational.

Tom on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 7:10 pm 



Nony, if peak oil is dead, why do you keep beating this dead horse? Why so much effort for something that really doesn’t matter?

Apneaman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 7:12 pm 



You never answered the question Nony. In fact you did exactly what I pointed out that you do. Why do you come here Nony? If your so certain it’s wrong why waste your precious time on a web site that only a few people with absolutely NO influence on the greater population have? Why doth you protest so much Nony? There must be a thousand things that people believe in that you could be protesting to, so why spend so many precious hours tilting against a topic that very few people are discussing? Do you really think that how many Google searches are partaken makes something true or false? By that reasoning Ancient aliens built the pyramids and the moon landing was a hoax. Reality is a popularity contest then.

Nony on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 7:31 pm 



why I come here:

http://www.flamewarriorsguide.com/warriorshtm/lonelyguy.htm

😉 😛

jjhman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 7:31 pm 



As an occasional poster here it is sometimes depressing to see the generally low lwvel of back-and-forth. I see a couple of posters who seem to enjoy being obnoxious (plant and nony come to mind) while others more attuned to the general mind set here seem to go ballistic in response.

Let’s face it. The concept of peak oil didn’t work out the way we thought it would 10 (or in my case 40) years ago. It is true that what we thought of as oil 10 years ago almost certainly did peak pretty much when predicted. But ingenuity and the market did indeed put off the effects to some degree, for some people, for a while. What seems to frustrate everyone around here is that some people think that proves that free market capitalism can solve any problem, including a production peak in petroleum.

I think we are in trouble with energy and that it is a horse race whether decreasing availability of cheap energy is going to cause BIG problems before we slip into some kind of environmental catastrophre. Today it isn’t clear to me when the payback will come. I hope it isn’t in the next 10 years because that’s about how long I expect to last. I hope it isn’t in the next 50 years because I have two 32 year olds. I doubt I will have grandchildren so that’s all I care about personally.

But it will come. The peakers were right about that and still are. And it will be bad. But no one knows when.

Nony on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 7:36 pm 



jjh: mega respect. Especially for noting the previous 70s peak oil scares. I remember synfuels of Jimmy Carter and the cardigan. No one predicted the 1986-2006 low prices.

Nony on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 7:45 pm 



Apneaman:

the funny thing is that Heinberg was a Velikovskian! This was the guy with crazy cosmology theories from mythology like Venus coming out of Jupiter 3000 years ago. Carl Sagan destroyed the dude. And Heinberg followed him in the 70s and wrote followon books. NUT-TER!

Read the Wikipedia articles on Heinberg and Velikovsky.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immanuel_Velikovsky

YOUR GUY is the one with the crazy nutter tendancies. (Don’t get me started on Savinar the astrologist or Ruppert the 9-11 truther. Do you see a trend???)

Davy on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 8:14 pm 



NOo, why can’t you answer my question why the Fed is unable to raise rates. Why is there so much debt floating around. Could it be demand is being destroyed and oil is a part of this process.

You are a shallow mind that can’t see the whole picture hence your foolish understanding of life. You are just a cocky kid who read a few economic books and thinks he is an expert. Your a fool NOo. If you showed some balance in this discussion I would respect you.

We are in a depletion event that is a complex dynamics at work. Your simpleton comments can’t even come close to touching on all the many variables at play of which peak oil dynamics is part of. You world is collapsing around you and you are oblivious.

Nony on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 8:19 pm 



I don’t know how the Fed works, Davy. I don’t understand all that stuff about transfer windows and such. I don’t like it either, just like you don’t. But I admit to not unraveling that snail shell. I also don’t understand the proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem. Or QED.

Bart Hendrickson on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 8:51 pm 



doesn’t matter anymore, drought on the west coast will cause a type of exodus that will initiate the end, have a nice day.

Nony on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 9:00 pm 



B.S. People love California. This is all just PR fluff. Turn on the tap and the water comes out fine. I remember all the brouhaha with the late 80s-ealry 90s 7-year drought. We got a big rain in 1992 and it was all forgotten.

Apneaman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 9:13 pm 



Nony, I’m a 95% plus determinist. The only question for me is the timing of the end of humanity and how painful will it be. If I was betting I would say we will not see another century. If you live to be a hundred you will not see the end of the drought. Got another market solution to trump physics again? I hope you do live to be 100.

Nony on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 9:21 pm 



peakers always make bad predictions. Drought will be no different. Just need an El Nino and we will have a wet winter and fill all reservoirs.

Apneaman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 9:53 pm 



El Nino will replace the snow pack that is down to 8%? Mud slides is what they will get if the systems get through the RRR. Puking 10 billion tons of CO2 per year into the atmosphere has irreversible consequences. I would say just ask the dinosaurs, but they ain’t here after similar amounts of CO2 killed them off.

Everything you need to know about Mass Extinction, Sea Level Rise and Amplification

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4jKo2-dS4M

Large igneous provinces and mass extinctions: An update

“It is notable that the best-constrained examples of death-by-volcanism record the main extinction pulse at the onset of (often explosive) volcanism (e.g., the Capitanian, end-Permian, and end-Triassic examples), suggesting that the rapid injection of vast quantities of volcanic gas (CO2 and SO2) is the trigger for a truly major biotic catastrophe.”

http://specialpapers.gsapubs.org/content/505/29.abstract

So what did-in the dinosaurs? A murder mystery…

Scientists have assembled a slew of new forensic evidence – from high-resolution dates to microscopic fossils – to prosecute the dino-killer. Their indictment has worrying implications for us.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=2892

toms2 on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 10:31 pm 



Nony, you’re dealing with true believers in a doomsday cult. Nothing you say will ever get through to them. Trust me, I’ve been observing doomsday groups of various kinds for many years, and nothing you say will ever get through to them. They will prep for doomsday every year until they die of natural causes decades from now.

Of the people involved in the peak oil collapse movement in the early days, 99.9% of them have left. These guys are the ones who remain. These guys saw the predictions fail, drastically, one after another, for 10 years, and they still have no doubts or ask any questions. Nothing you say is going to get through to them.

They’re constantly avoiding information. Any time they encounter dissenting views or outside information, they just dismiss it. It took only one post here for them to invent laughable conspiracy theories about you. Any information they encounter, they can just dismiss as propaganda from Exxon/Mobil paid shills, etc. Anyone who disagrees with them, they can write off as a paid covert agent who is trying to trick them. Every time a prediction fails, they can just shove it down the memory hole, or invent a new doomsday and say it’s totally certain this time and akin to the laws of physics. They’ve been doing these things constantly for years or decades. Just nothing is getting through. When you argue against them, it’s like throwing grains of sand at a brick wall.

-Tom S

Apneaman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 10:45 pm 



“99.9% of them have left.”

Where do you get this stat from Tom?
Me thinks you pulled it out of your ass just like most of the stats on you little blog. I guess that explains the whistling noise every time you come around.

toms2 on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 10:50 pm 



For example, look at what Davy said:

“NOo, why can’t you answer my question why the Fed is unable to raise rates. Why is there so much debt floating around. Could it be demand is being destroyed and oil is a part of this process.”

That’s just classic unfalsifiable pseudoscience. ANYTHING is being interpreted as evidence in favor of the theory. Movements of the interest rate are being interpreted as proof of their doomsday theory. The existence of debt, is being interpreted as proof of their doomsday theory.

Even if interest rates had gone up, these guys would just invent an explanation: “The Fed knows that peak oil collapse is coming and is trying to choke off oil demand”, etc.

As a humorous aside, in a previous doomsday group I was observing, one guy interpreted MOVEMENTS OF THE CLOUDS as proof of imminent doomsday. This stuff is not quite as silly as that, but it’s close. It’s just classic unfalsifiable pseudoscience.

-Tom S

toms2 on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 10:57 pm 



Apnean:

“Where do you get this stat from Tom?
Me thinks you pulled it out of your ass just like most of the stats on you little blog.”

I observe doomsday groups as a hobby. Back in 2007 I wrote a script to count the regular contributors to LATOC forums, The Oil Drume, etc, and who espoused doomsday views. There appeared to be many thousands of people preparing for peak oil doomsday back in 2007. Peak oil doom even got major media attention (The NY Times, the Wall St Journal, Harper’s Magazine, etc).

Now, this website is the clearinghouse, and it appears to have about 40 contributors. Don’t get me wrong, it’s possible that many people from 2007 still believe in imminent doomsday and have just “gone quiet”. It’s hard to know exactly how many members there are. However, of all the peak oil doomers I knew in 2007, most of them have just left the movement.

-Tom S

Apneaman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 10:58 pm 



Tom S, seems to me that it’d the cornys who left when oil started tanking 6 months ago. It’s only after the phenomena of shifting baselines setting in that you guys have slowly been crawling back. Nony near had a fucking mental break down then and only reappeared a few weeks ago. It just took awhile for y’all to settle into the new normal then pick up your faith based arguments where you left off before y’all ran away. Where do you guys go? Has the industry set up a reeducation camp for you to go to to double down talking points? Your like born again deniers. No matter how bad it gets after every step down you guys just regroup keep moving the goal posts and yell all the louder.

GregT on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 11:00 pm 



toms2,

Why don’t you post links to your blog anymore? Tired of being told about the seriousness of the state of denial that you are in?

If peak oil isn’t a real concern, why keep harping on about how anhydrous ammonia is going to save the day? Or alternate energy, or electric cars?

Kind of contradicting yourself, don’t you think?

toms2 on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 11:16 pm 



Apneaman:

“Tom S, seems to me that it’d the cornys who left when oil started tanking 6 months ago.”

You mean when oil starting declining in price rapidly because of oversupply? Isn’t that what the “cornies” had always predicted, and what Matt Simmons etc had always denied?

“It just took awhile for y’all to settle into the new normal then pick up your faith based arguments ”

It’s not “faith based”. It’s a basic observation that this is a doomsday group, with a long string of badly failed doomsday predictions, with no alteration of the underlying theories when the predictions fail, and with obviously unfalsifiable doctrines.

“Has the industry set up a reeducation camp for you to go to to double down talking points?”

I have to say, I got a big laugh out of that one. Not only am I a paid shill from Exxon Mobil or whomever else, but I was taken to a re-education camp!

“Where do you guys go?”

I only drop by once every couple of months, for a few hours. I have serious stuff to do also. I can’t spend all my time on this. This doomsday stuff is just a weird hobby. Ultimately, this is all a waste of time, but I find it fascinating for some strange reason.

Just so you know, I’m not a “corny” if by that you mean a follower of Julian Simon or something like that. I thought the Hubbert curve/peak oil stuff was plausible enough, although I thought it certainly wouldn’t cause a sudden collapse of civilization or a die-off.

I was surprised that even the Hubbert curves failed so badly. That was the one part of all this which I thought was somewhat serious, and even that was wrong.

-Tom S

toms2 on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 11:23 pm 



…I also thought that higher oil prices were probably permanent. I suspect prices will eventually rise again to $70 a barrel or more. I was surprised when peakers even got THAT wrong.

-Tom S

Apneaman on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 11:27 pm 



So like Nony your opinions are informed by what is popular in the MSM – which does not exists with out BAU? How many other topic specific online groups did you compare peak oil groups to? What was the average length of each group? How many different groups are there? Have you followed every writer from TOD to make sure they are not talking about peak oil still? Did you interview each one and ask them if they no longer think peak oil can happen? Does every blog that ends instantly disqualify everything that was said on that blog and render the information wrong? No one is allowed to move on to other projects? And if they do that means they were lying? Like Nate Hagens and his farm and speaking engagements. I think you only went far enough to confirm your beliefs and do not hold yourself and friends to the same standards you require in those who have a different worldview. If you had a clue about the internet you would know that online groups are short lived-this is true regardless of the topic. There are millions defunct online forums. Does not prove shit. You should consider studying logic – you might learn the difference between your opinion and empirical evidence.

toms2 on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 11:40 pm 



Apneaman:

“How many other topic specific online groups did you compare peak oil groups to? What was the average length of each group?”

This is only my fourth doomsday group. Most of them last only a few years. A few of them have “devoted believers” who remain committed long after many of their doomsday predictions have failed.

Interestingly, the Y2K group actually disbanded when that doomsday failed to happen. A few adherents pointed out that there was also another upcoming date when Unix timestamps would fail (some time around 2030 if I recall) but that idea didn’t gain any traction, and the group actually dispersed. That was the only group (out of four) which totally ended when the predictions failed. The problem was, it was harder to make an unfalsifiable doctrine out of that.

“Does every blog that ends instantly disqualify everything that was said on that blog and render the information wrong?”

That’s not what I said. It’s the failed predictions, the severe errors of fact and reasoning within these doctrines, and the lack of falsifiability, which disqualifies peak oil doomerism. The closing websites is just a symptom of failed predictions.

“No one is allowed to move on to other projects? And if they do that means they were lying?”

That’s not what I said. I don’t think anybody was lying. Insofar as I can tell, everyone sincerely believed in this stuff. Many people moved to remote locations around 2006 in preparation for imminent collapse. I think they were probably sincere. They certainly sacrificed a lot.

-Tom S

GregT on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 11:46 pm 



“They certainly sacrificed a lot.”

And what, pray tell, do you believe that they sacrificed?

GregT on Thu, 9th Apr 2015 11:52 pm 



“Many people moved to remote locations around 2006 in preparation for imminent collapse. ”

And the US congress in 2008 voted in favour of a 4.3 trillion dollar bailout to the TBTF banks, to avoid what was referred to as ” blood in the streets”.

Yet YOU believe that collapse was not imminent?

Apneaman on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 12:01 am 



Doomsday means the end of humanity in a single Hollywood style event. I do not know of any peak oil proponents that think peak oil will end the species in any amount of time – just industrial civilization and the population that cannot survive without it. Maybe if enough nuclear power plants were completely abandon that might do it. Climate change on the other hand has caused 14 extinction events. Excess CO2 released through volcanism. We are fastly approaching those levels. Physics does not care if we dug it up and burned it or if volcanic traps release it. The end result is the same. The Permian die off was 95% of all life.

toms2 on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 12:03 am 



GregT,

“Why don’t you post links to your blog anymore? Tired of being told about the seriousness of the state of denial that you are in?”

I’m in denial that civilization is about to collapse? It’s just too scary?

GregT, this is not the most plausible doomsday group I’ve observed.

“If peak oil isn’t a real concern, why keep harping on about how anhydrous ammonia is going to save the day? Or alternate energy, or electric cars?”

I wanted to see if it would make any difference.

Doomsday groups with a long string of failed predictions are usually ignored. Nobody pays attention to them anymore. The remaining believers just talk to each other. I wanted to see if that was the reason they persist in their belief. I thought maybe they just inhabit a closed social system where they don’t encounter anything else.

It turns out, that was not the case. The true believers actively and strenuously resist information. If you point out that a prediction failed, they just ignore it, or change the topic over and over again, or accuse you of being a paid shill, or make up some conspiracy theory, or purposefully misinterpret what you are saying to them, or fly off into psychoanalysis.

-Tom S

toms2 on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 12:15 am 



GregT:

“And what, pray tell, do you believe that they sacrificed?”

Many people sacrificed 10 years of their lives preparing for an event which did not happen. That’s what I meant by “sacrifice”.

Don’t get me wrong. Maybe you guys just like growing your own food, gardening, living in rural locations, etc. Nothing wrong with that. If you enjoy doing this stuff, then great. I just want to make sure you understand that civilization is not collapsing because of peak oil. If you want to grow your own food anyway, then go for it.

-Tom S

Apneaman on Fri, 10th Apr 2015 12:45 am 



toms2, your still struggling with word definitions. The only plausible doomsday scenario would be a full scale nuclear war. The word “day” in doomsday means one day. Which part of that do you not understand? If you had a clue about people who think collapse is coming you would know that the vast majority of them are not the kind of people to join groups, nor do we all prep or agree on many aspects except the overall trend. Your trying to create a caricature so you can knock it down. The ultimate strawman. Same as Nony does. People who truly think that the world is fine and will more or less keep on going just the way it is, do not come to places like this. Same question I ask Nony that he refuses to answer – why do you come here if you think we are such a tiny deluded and ineffectual group? I can guarantee you that almost no one is paying attention. Why do you feel the need to argue against something you say is not happening? Why doth you protest so much?