The peak oil controversy stages a comeback as the industry confronts a future of higher costs — and low prices.
By Richard Heinberg
A spindletop spouter gushes oil in 1902. (Image: Wikimedia Commons)
Talking about “peak oil” can feel very last decade. In fact, the question is still current. Petroleum markets are so glutted and prices are so low that most industry commenters think any worry about future oil supplies is pointless. The glut and price dip, however, are hardly indications of a healthy industry; instead, they are symptoms of an increasing inability to match production cost, supply, and demand in a way that’s profitable for producers but affordable for society. Is this what peak oil looks like?
Back in the early years of the current millennium, I was among a handful of authors warning that world petroleum production rates would soon hit a maximum level and start to decline, and that the eventual result would be economic mayhem. But it’s now the latter half of 2016 and, according to the United States Energy Information Administration, world production of crude oil hit a new high in 2014 of almost 78 million barrels per day, while 2015’s average number was almost certainly higher still.
Yet something strange and ominous is indeed happening in the oil industry. And I’d argue that only those versed in peak-oil discourse are prepared to understand what that is, and what the likely emerging trends will be.
Aside from issuing forecasts regarding the timing of the inevitable moment when petroleum production would max out (yes, many of those forecasts proved premature), we peak-oil writers more importantly tended to agree on three key insights, all of them as valid now as ever:
Oil is essential to the modern world. Energy is what enables us to do anything and everything, and oil is currently the world’s primary energy source. But oil’s role in society is even more crucial than that sentence might suggest. Nearly 95 percent of global transport is oil-powered, and if trucks, trains, and ships were to stop running, the global economy would grind to a halt almost instantly. Even electricity (which is the other main energy pillar of commerce and daily life) depends on oil: coal mining, transport, and processing depend on oil; much the same is true for natural gas, uranium, and the components of solar panels and wind turbines.
Oil is hard to substitute. A colleague, the energy analyst David Fridley, and I recently finished a year-long inquiry into details of the necessary and inevitable transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy. While lots of sunshine and wind are available, not all the ways we use energy will be easy to adapt to renewable electricity. Some of the biggest challenges we identified are in the transport sector. Electric cars are certainly feasible (more are on the road every year), but batteries alone can’t power heavy trucks, container ships, and large airplanes.
There are other possibilities (including biofuels and hydrogen-based fuels made using electricity), but these are likely to be much more expensive and will require large energy inputs for their ongoing production. Moreover, transitioning to them will take major investment and infrastructure build-out occurring over two or more decades.
Depletion of oil (and of other non-renewable resources) tends to follow the low-hanging fruit principle. Humanity has been extracting oil on an industrial scale for 150 years now. At first, all it took was identifying places where petroleum was seeping to the ground surface, then digging a shallow well. Today, globally, millions of old conventional oil wells lie depleted and abandoned. The primary remaining prospects for production include heavy oil (which requires expensive processing); bitumen (which must be mined or steam-extracted); tight oil (produced from low-permeability source rocks, which requires hydrofracturing and horizontal drilling, with typical wells showing a rapid decline in output); deepwater oil (which entails high drilling and infrastructure costs); or arctic oil (which has so far mostly proven cost-prohibitive). All of these options entail rapidly growing environmental costs and risks.
It’s that third point that helps explain the disturbing recent evolution of the petroleum world. Most industry analysts focus on oil prices, and it’s clear on this score that the market has gone seriously weird in recent years. In 2001, petroleum sold for about $20 a barrel, a price that sat well within a fairly narrow band of highs and lows that had bounded price for roughly 20 years following the politically generated oil shocks of the 1970s. But, by the summer of 2008, the price had ascended to the unprecedented, dizzying altitude of $147; then (following the cratering of the global economy) it plummeted to $37. Following that, prices gradually recovered to around $100, where they remained for nearly three years before sliding again, starting in mid-2014, to the high $20s, from which they have partially rebounded to today’s approximately $40.
WTI Spot Price Monthly Averages, January 2001 through May 2016. (Chart: U.S. Energy Information Administration)
The recent highs (above $100) are incomprehensible, until we recognize that the oil industry’s costs of production have skyrocketed in the past decade. Throughout the first decade-and-a-half of the new century, demand for oil was growing rapidly in Asia. Normally, the industry would have simply ramped up its supplies of conventional crude to satisfy the needs of new car buyers in China and India. But output of conventional oil topped out in 2005; all the new supply growth since then has been from hard-to-reach or low-grade resources. Producers didn’t resort to these until demand outstripped supply, raising prices and justifying the far higher rates of investment that are required per unit of new production. But that meant that, henceforth, high prices would have to continue if producers were to turn a profit.
When oil was selling for $100 per barrel, many tight-oil projects in the U.S. were nevertheless only marginally profitable or were actually money losers; still, with interest rates at historic lows and plenty of investment capital sloshing around the financial industry, drillers had no trouble finding operating capital (David Hughes of Post Carbon Institute was one of the few analysts who questioned the durability of the “shale gale,” on the basis of meticulous well-by-well analysis). The result of cascading investment was a ferocious spate of drilling and fracking that drove levels of U.S. oil production sharply upward, overwhelming global markets. The amount of oil in storage ballooned. That’s the main reason prices collapsed in mid-2014 — along with Saudi Arabia’s insistence on continuing to pump crude at maximum rates in order to help drive the upstart American shale-oil producers out of business. The Saudi gambit mostly succeeded: Small- to medium-sized U.S. producers are now gasping for air, and, as their massive debts come due over the next few months, a wave of bankruptcies and buyouts seems fairly inevitable. Meanwhile, in the continental U.S., oil production has dropped by 800,000 barrels a day.
Indeed, the entire petroleum business is currently in deep trouble. Countries that rely on crude oil export revenues are facing enormous budget deficits, and in some cases are having trouble maintaining basic services to their people.
An activist holds a fake bill reading Hunger during a demonstration in Caracas, Venezuela, on September 19, 2015. (Photo: Federico Parra/AFP/Getty Images)
The worst instance is Venezuela, where hunger is rampant. But hard times have also fallen on Nigeria, the Middle Eastern monarchies, Russia, and even Canada to some degree. The oil majors (Exxon, Shell, Chevron, etc.) are still somewhat profitable because a significant portion of their output still comes from older, giant oilfields; but a large and increasing segment of their remaining profits now goes toward debt servicing. And their existing oil reserves are not being replaced with new discoveries.
Any way you look at it, the industry faces a grim future. Even if prices go up, there is no guarantee of recovery: Investors may be shy to rush back to oil since they have no assurance that a price rout won’t recur in months or years. After all, when prices are high enough to generate profits (which is very high indeed these days), they are also high enough to destroy demand — which is also vulnerable to recessions, the growth of the electric vehicle market, and meaningful climate policy. It’s simply unclear whether the global economy can consistently support an oil price that’s sufficiently robust to pay the industry to extract and refine the kinds of resources that remain.
Again, most oil commentators look at all of this through a purely economic lens. But it may be helpful to think more in terms of thermodynamics. Oil, after all, is primarily useful as a source of energy. And it takes energy to get energy (it takes energy to drill an oil well, for example). Energy profits from oil extraction activities were once enormous, and those energy profits got spread throughout society, wherever oil was used. Now, petroleum’s energy profitability is falling fast.
The peak-oil discussion was an effort to warn society ahead of time: Once the dynamic of declining energy profitability really gets rolling, adaptation becomes much more difficult.
While conventional oil wells 50 years ago often had a hundred-to-one energy payback, for example, today’s bitumen production in Canada shows an energy-return-on-energy-invested (EROEI) ratio of between 3:1 and 5:1. This declining energy profitability is why it’s now so hard to produce oil at a financial profit, and also why — even when oil supplies are still expanding — they don’t fuel as much economic growth throughout the economy.
Since oil is the key energy source of modern civilization, the effective EROEI of society as a whole can be said to be declining. It might not be far from the mark to suggest that we are witnessing the early stages of the thermodynamic failure of global industrial society. An earlier phase of the process manifested in the financial crash of 2008; when that occurred, governments and central banks responded by deploying easy money (massive debt, low interest rates) to prop up the system, and this temporarily masked society’s dwindling EROEI. Debt can accomplish this over the short run: Money is effectively a marker for energy, and we can borrow and spend money now on costly energy with the promise that we will pay for it later (hence the massive build-up of debt in the oil industry). But if cheaper-to-produce energy and higher prices don’t emerge soon, those debts will eventually become transparently un-repayable. Hence what is inherently an energy crisis can appear to most observers to be a debt crisis.
The problem of eroding energy profitability is hard to deal with partly because the decline is happening so fast. If we had a couple of decades to prepare for falling thermodynamic efficiency, there are things we could do to soften the blow. That’s what the peak oil discussion was all about: It was an effort to warn society ahead of time. Once the dynamic of declining energy profitability really gets rolling, adaptation becomes much more difficult. Oil no longer provides as much of a stimulus to the economy, which just can’t grow as it did before, and this in turn sets in motion a self-reinforcing feedback loop of stagnating or falling labor productivity, falling wages, falling consumption, reduced ability to re-pay debt, failure to invest in future energy productivity, falling energy supplies, falling tax revenues, and so on. How long can debt continue to substitute for energy before the next traumatic phase of this feedback process begins in earnest? That’s anybody’s guess, but our window for action is likely months or years, not decades.
A robot cleans a row of solar panels at the 102-acre, 15-megawatt Solar Array II Generating Station at Nellis Air Force Base on February 16, 2016, in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
What could world leaders do about declining societal EROEI if they took the crisis seriously? Clearly, part of their strategy would entail building an alternative energy supply infrastructure — which must be low-carbon, since we also face the existential threat of climate change. Indeed, some environmentalists say peak oil is a non-issue because whatever we do to tackle climate change will simultaneously solve our oil dilemma. I’m not so sure about that. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies start with transitioning the electricity sector to solar and wind power, and then proceed with a gradual electrification of other energy usage (electric cars, electric air-source heat pumps to heat buildings, etc.). But, as noted, much of the transport sector is hard to electrify. It’s nice to see more Nissan Leafs, Teslas, and Chevy Volts on the road, but those carry people; our real challenge is moving all the stuff we need (food, raw materials, and manufactured goods of all kinds), and that stuff outweighs passengers by an order of magnitude and currently travels mostly by ship and truck.
We need to build a bridge to the energy future, even while the highway we’re on is crumbling beneath us.
Efforts now underway to power trucking and shipping renewably are woefully insufficient. Peak oil demands that we focus on transport now, not later: We should supply substitute renewable fuels where absolutely needed, but we must also quickly and substantially reduce our reliance on long-distance transport through economic re-localization.
As much as I hate to think so, thermodynamic decline and economic contraction could seriously impair our chances for a robust renewable energy transition in response to the threat of climate change. Building enough solar panels and wind turbines, and adapting the ways we use energy (in building heating, in industrial processes, in transportation, in food systems, and on and on), will take time and many trillions of dollars of investment. It will also require stable international markets and supply chains, and those could be thrown into turmoil by the declining thermodynamic profitability of our society’s current primary energy source — unless we can somehow build a bridge to the future while the highway we’re on is crumbling beneath us.
A few of us never stopped studying the nexus of problems subsumed under the rubric of peak oil, and we now have a more sophisticated understanding of oil production and prices, and links with the larger economy. Still, outside a relatively small, well-informed audience, nobody’s listening — because the subject of peak oil has been discredited following a short-term oil supply glut and low oil prices. Even many environmentalists have filed peak oil under “Things Not to Worry About.” (One high-level climate campaigner of my acquaintance has said that peak oil is a lousy issue to organize around — as though we can afford to ignore a gargantuan problem if it offers insufficient fundraising potential). Thankfully, that small, resourceful audience has taken action anyway, in the form of community resilience-building efforts that often fly under the banner of Transition Initiatives and similar networks.
It may be counterproductive even to use the phrase “peak oil” today, though I’ve done so in this essay. After all, we don’t know if the actual maximum in world oil output occurred last year, or will happen this year, next year, or several years from now. This lack of definitive predictive power is the Achilles’ heel of an otherwise useful term. What instead should we call the complex, interrelated set of developments described above? Should we dub it “the thermodynamic collapse of industrial civilization”? That has a nice techno-apocalyptic ring to it and is probably more accurate. But it has too many syllables and requires too much background explanation. Only geeks could ever get it.
Something is happening here, whether we have a snappy buzzword for it or not. And we can’t afford to ignore it, regardless of how hard it is to explain it to economists, policymakers, and even many environmentalists. My colleagues and I keep trying to do just that. But at this point it also makes sense to batten down the hatches and build resilience close to home.
106 Comments on "Heinberg: Is the Oil Industry Dying?"
paulo1 on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 2:09 pm
This is an excellent article to come out of my self-induced exile for. Heinberg is bang on with his points. In particular: “My colleagues and I keep trying to do just that. But at this point it also makes sense to batten down the hatches and build resilience close to home.”
I am sure that most of you know the following sites, but when you tire of people calling each other fucktards (and worse) on PO.com, you may want to visit:
I would also hope that in future moderators will control some of the more blatant forms of personal attack on this site. The very first day back, from a hiatus of 8 months from PO.com, the first comment I read called another poster a ‘fucktard’. I had to check the address bar to see if it was a Trump news clip.
Anyway, after reading the site for a few days I see that most of you are well. Take care.
Some people have finally starting to realize that this is no debt or money issues. It is really and energy and thermodynamics constraint on which this planet is built on and limited by.
This planet is subject to the law of conservation of energy and thermodynamic, not the law of money and debt that are only human invention.
We have as a specie to move beyond the concept of financial transaction to a concept of energy transaction.
The author suggest to use the terms thermodynamic collapse of industrial civilization instead of peak oil. Like I said people are starting to see the light.
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:06 pm
Ipiss, China started its way “upp” driving on bicycles. Then for some reason they decided that mopeds, scooters and cars were better transportation.
If we take away the personal fossil fuel dependent transportation that we have to day, and replace it with good old bicycles, then the world would actually be better. Can we do that ?
IPissOnLoser on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:33 pm
The scooter idea seems a great way to move away from the car without disturbing too much society.
I was looking recently to buy a scooter myself.
Taiwan has a very efficient scooter infrastructure that is worth looking at and coping.
More bicycle path is also a good idea like they do in Sweden.
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:37 pm
Ipiss said: “This planet is subject to the law of conservation of energy and thermodynamic”.
And by your logics the world should have warmed up by just as much as all the coal and oil we have burned through history.
That doesn’t seem to be the case.
The planet is all the time losing heat to space, but the real and acute problem is that because of the co2 barrier in the atmosphere we cant get rid of our surplous heat.
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:46 pm
Ipiss said: The scooter idea seems a great way to move away from the car without disturbing too much society.
The scooter came before the car, so it can not have replaced the car. And actually the scooters are very inefficient gas-burners.
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:52 pm
IPissonlosers, Please find another name.
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:56 pm
I think it’s a no-brainer. Stop selling gas/petrol to ordinary people. start seling bicycles
Plantagenet on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 5:04 pm
Oil has always been a boom and bust commodity. We had a big boom in oil up until 2014. Oil prices and investment surged and an oil glut resulted. Now we are in the oil glut and the oil industry is in a bust.
I don’t see why we won’t have another boom in a few more years. The oil glut has to end eventually, and as supply tightens oil prices will go back up. The cycle will repeat again.
At some point we will hit peak oil, but it may take 1-2 more boom and bust cycles to get there.
Cheers!
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 5:15 pm
Plant , wouldn’t it be nice if people started using either legs or bicycles. That would delay peakoil for our children and hopefully their children as well.
makati1 on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 5:52 pm
claman, have you ever flown over the Midwest? You know, that huge area between the West and East Coasts. If you had, you would know that bicycles are for city folk, not most of the country outside.
shortonoil on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 6:07 pm
Peak Oil is the point where the world reaches the maximum petroleum production that will ever occur. That definition is clear cut, and definitive. But, the results of that happening, and its timing have always been a matter of pure speculation. It was always assumed that once production reached Peak that it would slowly slide down the back side of Hubbert’s curve; that economic activity would decline as a result of that slowing production, and that there would be an ever increasing rise in its price in the face of scarcity. That part was pure speculation. It also completely ignored why oil was used in the first place.
Of course, there is no scarcity, there never was, nor can there be. The world still posses up to 2,700 Gb of liquid hydrocarbons. About twice as much as what has already been consumed. Peak Oil can not come about for at least a century as a result of a supply shortage. It can only come about as a result of why it was used in the first place. It was used as an energy source, and an energy scarcity will be its undoing. The reason why it was used is why oil production is a thermodynamic process, and not a process of pumping black goo out of the ground. The Peakers have been trying to count the barrels produced, and completely missed the energy.
That is all that has ever mattered, and it is all that ever will.
Heinberg know the problem very well however, he doesn’t have a clue on the solution.
Wind and solar energy collectors are net energy sinks. Their demise is only a matter of time.
i have a 250 Honda Reflex. It will cruise at 65 mph and gets 65 mpg at that speed. This is on country roads, no traffic except deer, turkeys, little varmints of all sorts and an occasional eagle.
However, winter would be a problem, we are 5 miles from town. I can carry quite a bit on it.
Kenz300 on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 6:39 pm
Electric cars, trucks, bicycles and mass transit are the future…..fossil fuel ICE cars are the past…………..
Riding a bike is fun and good exercise………walking, bicycles, mass transit and electric vehicles will all be part of making cities livable.
Ride to school………ride to work………ride for fun………..
Bike to work day should be everyday….. employers need to provide places to park and lock bicycles and encourage employees to ride a bicycle to work.
Children should be riding a bike to school instead of being dropped off by their parents.
Cities need to do more to provide safe walking and biking trails and paths that connect homes, schools and businesses.
Obesity is a growing problem around the world leading to an increase in heart disease, cancer and high blood pressure. Walking and biking can help improve health.
Buy a child a bicycle……your son, daughter, niece, nephew, grandchild or donate one to a local charity as a fund raiser giveaway. You will change a life…………
Anonymous on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 6:46 pm
Scooters, with there 2-stroke engines are major sources of air pollution in asia. Could scooters be made ‘cleaner’, or at very least, less dirty? Probably, but in the main, a great many 2 stroke scooters are as bad at generating noise, pollution and congestion as there 2 ton counterparts. Its different kind of dirty and problems, but still filthy and problematic. The underlying problem, the one of that requires huge masses of people to move around constantly, is the real issue.
Apneaman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 6:54 pm
Kenz you should ride a bike……in heavy traffic……without a helmet………at night…….while shitfaced.
Plantagenet on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 7:02 pm
@claman
YES. Of course it is nice to use legs and bicycles. I do that frequently and I recommend you do you the same.
I just bought a full size folding bike —- store it in a bag and you can take them anywhere, then unfold it and clip the frame back together and off you go. I’ve had a little folding mini-bike I picked up in Japan many years ago, but the full-size folding bike is the way to go if you are a serious bicycler.
Cheers!
Plantagenet on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 7:08 pm
There are quite good electric scooters/motorcycles out now—fast clean and energy efficient with zero carbon emissions. Check out this electric BMW
I’m still using my older 400 cc Italian Scooter for local trips that are too long to do by bicycle. It gets about 90 mpg and is a blast to ride. In Italy and Paris and Barcelona and over much of Europe scooters are very widely used. We should learn from our European cousins and use scooters more to reduce fuel consumption here in the USA.
Cheers!
Northwest Resident on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 8:12 pm
“Peak Oil is the point where…”
Peak Presidential Bullshit is the point where Donald Trump boldly declares that Obama and Hillary are founder and co-founder of ISIS. I always figured that Trump’s real goal was to make himself into a mockable parody of your typical everyday radical right wing old white racist and fanatically religious numbnut, to give voice to their idiocy and to lead them into total humiliation. If so, then Trump is doing a splendid job.
Peak financial engineering is when the central banks (think “Sweden”) print billion$ and then buy up over-valued securities on the mercantile exchanges, without announcement, while everybody else is a net seller. Combined with record corporate buy-backs and continued massive printing (CTL ALT P), is it any wonder the stock “market” is roaring to new heights.
Peak Civilization is when the deluded and propagandized and junk-food poisoned blobbish masses of citizenry become so addicted to digital displays and sweet lies whispered in their ears that they become virtually incapacitated as a thinking human being, and stumble blindly from one cheesy episode to another on their way to that one final outburst of feeble misdirected energy and utter horror when the fake world they thought they lived in collapses into dust.
Peak Copy Cat is when Northwest Resident has just read a chapter from Memories of Ice and has a few minutes after his usual workout to sit down and attempt to emulate Kruppe.
JuanP on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 8:45 pm
Claman, If I have to choose between driving my SUV and feeding your children then your children will starve to death. I hope you realize that your children are doomed because most people are not willing to make any sacrifices to save them. That is why I had a Vasectomy and no children. You should learn how to grow food organically and teach them how to do it; they will need that knowledge. If you think that people will stop polluting, consuming, and breeding and save the biosphere from obliteration you are deluded. Even most of the people who have children are not willing to make any sacrifices for them. Look around you!
jjhman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 9:47 pm
Today on the radio I heard that “modern civilization” discharges 8 tons of plastic waste PER MINUTE into the environment. We can probably continue at about that rate until there is no oil left, way past its usefulness as an energy source. Sigh.
Roger on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 9:49 pm
Nice article…most of it is spot on.
Commendably, the author does acknowledge his lack of understanding in one regard:
” It’s simply unclear whether the global economy can consistently support an oil price that’s sufficiently robust to pay the industry to extract and refine the kinds of resources that remain.”
As phrased by the author, a valid point. Unfortunately, lesser minds transpose this into “the economy can’t afford expensive oil, so oil prices will fall.” Which is nonsense.
Rest assured, the oil producers will be paid. What will happen is “price rationing.” That is, the parts of the global economy that cannot afford oil priced at its marginal cost of production will have to do without. Yes, the economy will contract, but the price of oil will continue to rise.
Cloggie on Fri, 12th Aug 2016 3:48 am
@NWR “Peak Presidential Bullshit is the point where Donald Trump boldly declares that Obama and Hillary are founder and co-founder of ISIS. I always figured that Trump’s real goal was to make himself into a mockable parody ”
Since the rise of Trump it has become abundantly clear that the Washington polit establishment is one homogeneous mash and that Dems en Reps will conspire together to keep outsiders like Trump out.
The pictures in the link clearly show that IS had contacts with US politics at the highest level.
The US establishment (CFR doing the thinking, deciding and planning and water carriers like McCain, Obama and Clinton carrying it out) agreed to provide IS with weapons, via their proxies Turkey, Qatar and KSA with the aim to topple Assad, an entity that resisted to become a US proxy itself.
But rather than doing the dirty work for the US empire, head chopper society IS fooled Washington and decided to start a Caliphate of their own, rather than handing Syrian territory over to Washington and begin a future of wimmen’s rights, multiculturalism, porn, gay pride parades, gay marriage, abortion, McDonalds in every town, secularist state, holocaust worship and a few American goodies more. Thanks but no thanks.
Now it is likely that the US will attempt to sick its new proxy Ukraine in a direct war against Russia over Crimea, just like the US sicked Poland in a war against Germany in 1939 by ensuring war by pushing Britain and France in a war guarantee first and next encourage the Poles to persecute the Germans forced to live in Versailles Poland:
These hundreds of thousands of Syrian deaths are the responsibility of the US by intentionlly destabilizing countries like Syria, Iraq and Libya.
Hopefully the “old white racist” Trump will put a stop to that.
Cloud9 on Fri, 12th Aug 2016 5:52 am
Economic collapse will do what no political movement can. It will collapse the piggy bank of the deep state. Once federal pay checks fail to have clout, the byzantine Leviathan that has evolved over the last two centuries will disappear like a morning mist. The cities are nine meals away from chaos.
Cloggie on Fri, 12th Aug 2016 10:16 am
Agree. Political systems can’t reform themselves. Even good old Gorbachev sincerely tried it, but even he couldn’t prevent that events took their own course and the USSR evaporated, which had never been the intention of Gorby.
Trump, if elected, could very well become the American Gorbachev. He wants to set the US on a more isolationist, anti-globalist course and begin to mnid his own business, an excellent idea. But a financial collapse could trigger a social collapse, with eventually the rise of the Amerikaner:
This Heinberg longread is a good opportunity to sum up ten years of personal peak oil interest. I dug up my copy of Heinberg’s 2nd 2005 edition of “The Party is Over”, which I read in May 2007, when I still lived in Leiden (Holland) making good money while working freelance for the Federation of Dutch Chamber of Commerce, porting their software from Cobol to J2EE. Hence I could afford to live in an apartment in one of the houses on the right…
…overlooking the Old Rhine river and the Mayflower hotel on the opposite. It was from these waters that the Pilgrim Fathers and their Mayflower left for America four centuries ago. They and Dutch Protestants set up the competing New England and New Netherlands projects, defining the character of the later American Republic until today. This river also constituted the upper northern frontier of the Roman empire, that stretched southwards as far as southern Egypt. I lived on the Roman side, hotel Mayflower is on the tribal Germanic side.
Browsing through Heinberg’s book which made a great impact on me, filled with yellow textliner stripes and annotations:
H admits that much of the book is inspired by dieoff.org. but also that the end of industrial civilization doesn’t mean the end of the world. H came to energy from an ecological angle (meaning sceptical attitude towards industrialism, perhaps secretly hoping for peak oil to occur as soon as possible) and was in favor of renewable energy before possible depletion became an issue. Typical American attitude of racial egalitarianism, H is a hardcore leftie. H says he completely relies on the judgment of retired oil engineers. H core message is that soon with every passing year less nett energy will be available per capita. H is nevertheless prudently optimistic about the future (H hates technology and industry, wants to play his violin in his backyard with carrots and beets, wants to smoke the peace pipe with adventurous substances, together with Chief Blackfoot, is a romanticist who loves grandiose American landscapes and endless forrests. Well, it is an attitude, much prevalent on this forum). The rise of America to super power status was largely based on oil. The industrial revolution started in Europe, but was taken over by America which outperformed Europe due to a richer resource base. The Dutch for instance got their oil from Indonesia, that is the other side of the world. US citizens now have 150 virtual slaves per capita. A manday work equivalent in electricity now costs 25 cents (1 kwh). Interstate Highway System as the largest public works program in history, pushing back rail. H flirts with the idea that Iraq invading Kuwait could have been provoked by the US (“April Glaspie”). H disappointed in results Clinton-Gore ticket: almost nothing was achieved with renewable energy, instead globalism ruled. Saudi proverb: My father rode a camel, I drive a car, my son flies an airplane, his son will ride a camel. H is clearly a 9/11 truther and far more honest and courageous than our resident empire and mass murder apologist ghung. Hubbert and the peak oil concept. Predicted in 1956 the US production oil peak of 1970. H leans heavy on Campbell who predicted in 1998 that oil output could decline before 2010. H arrives on page 115 on the peak oil date of 2006-2007.
On p127 H does mention shale oil, en passant mentioning eroei, but not fracking. H refers to 6$/Watt PV, currently it is less than 1$/Watt. Ridiculous GW Bush quote from 2002: “we need more energy consumption”. H predicts that post-industrial agriculture will be able to support 2 billion people max. On p208 H prudently, between the lines, rejects the idea os mass migration. For H the US is an empire in steep decline. On p213 H accurately foresees what will happen is the US would leave Iraq: political chaos is in the entire ME, which is exactly what happened since. On p215 H predicts the possibility of renewed rivalry between the US and Russia, which happened also. On p215 H refers to the possibility of Paris-Berlin-Moscow with perhaps even China added to the mix, a US nightmare. The US actions in Ukraine prevented PBM for the moment but Moscow-Beijing axis did happen, the final act of sabotage against the NWO. H also correctly predicted that there won’t be a shooting war over Iran. p221, H doesn’t believe that the ultimate doomer scenario (“OlduvaiGorge”) will happen. Summarizing, which party is going to end? Peak global energie per capita production/consumption; collapse of globalism; collapse of the grid. Remedies: grow your own food and produce your own energy and provide youw own health care, isolate your home, save energy, don’t buy stuff mindlessly, dump the car, orient yourself on your community, use local currencies. Design cities for communities, not for the car. Supports national birth limitation programs. h is against migration. H says that the US may decline, but there will not be a successor imperialist. H is pro-train. Hopes for a future of less of everything including less stress.
ghung on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 10:40 am
Cloggie wrote; “….far more honest and courageous than our resident empire and mass murder apologist ghung…”
Cry foul! Cloggie; show me one post where I supported US empire or was an apologist. Show me where I specifically denied 9/11 or any of that. Challenging your sources isn’t the same thing. I suggest you go work for Trump, since he obviously could use a better spin doctor.
You sir, are an exceptionally dishonest individual, and I suspect you are merely projecting that underlying quality on others. Further, you admit to being an ongoing beneficiary of this industrial culture, which makes you at least as GUILTY as anyone here. Hypocricy.
Cloggie on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 11:38 am
ghung, you are far too smart to not understand that 9/11 stinks to high heaven and Israel must have been involved. But instead of acknowledging that obvious fact you recently choose to sabotage the discussion about 9/11 and hence my accusation that you are willing to cover up an event that served as the initiation point of the US invasion of Iraq and subsequent complete destabilisation of the ME with hundreds of thousands of people killed.
There is a lot I do NOT like about Trump, but at least with him you have much more chance on world peace than with Clinton.
So yes, go Trump!
Northwest Resident on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 12:06 pm
Cloggie disappointed with me? How disappointing!
Read this:
Is Trump Deliberately Throwing The Election To Clinton?
Just a little bit of circumstantial affirmation of what I (and others) have long suspected. Not that I agree with everything the writer has to say.
We live in very complicated times. Beneath the thin façade of “all is well”, dire troubles are percolating, threatening to explode. The social fabric in America is disintegrating. Anger, bitterness, resentment, disillusionment and deep distrust have taken root in America. This witch’s cauldron will blow sky high one of these days, and just about any spark will set it off.
The value of Trump from the PTB point of view is that he gives official voice to the anger and deep resentment that the increasingly despairing masses are feeling. The powers that be have apparently decided that it is impossible to placate the many millions of U.S. citizens who have been kicked to the curb by globalization and historic wealth transfer. And as any Machiavellian-indoctrinated group of rulers would know, if you can’t control or destroy a revolution in the making, then the next best option is to co-opt it, to manipulate it, and to by so doing direct it down a path of least resistance.
Sure, it isn’t a long term strategy. But clearly, in all respects, the powers that be are only concerned with buying time for the short term.
Trump isn’t a Hillary Clinton agent, any more than Hillary Clinton is deserving of the formerly great position of the U.S. Presidency. Both of them are players in a game that is being plotted and controlled by powers far greater than a hamstrung president could ever dream of wielding. Both are agents representing the same source of vast and concealed power.
The game is the same as it has been since at least 1970: BUY TIME. Extend and pretend. Stamp out threats to the extend and pretend regime when possible, or control and manipulate threats that can’t be eliminated. Buy Time.
We don’t know what the big plan is, or to what end the powers that be are buying time. But we aren’t that far away from finding out. In the meantime, Cloggie, if you find yourself feeling a little disappointed in others’ points of view, maybe you should reevaluate your own perspective.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 12:16 pm
“It [Inflation] discourages all prudence and thrift. It encourages squandering, gambling, reckless waste of all kinds. It often makes it more profitable to speculate than to produce. It tears apart the whole fabric of stable economic relationships. Its inexcusable injustices drive men toward desperate remedies. It plants the seeds of fascism and communism. It leads men to demand totalitarian controls. (i.e., TRUMP) It ends invariably in bitter disillusion and collapse.” Henry Hazlitt, Economics in One Lesson, page 176
The FED certainly won’t admit to it, but inflation is destroying lives daily in America and across the globe.
But there was no choice. It was inflate or die, and that choice was made many years ago, probably around 1970 when the powers that be realized that there was not enough energy or resources to provide for the exponentially increasing population.
The collapse that we all talk about has been ongoing, subtly at first, ever more pronounced day by day now, for over 40 years. The long step-down collapse that Greer writes about is in progress and has been for a long time.
“Inflationism has seen real wages for much of the workforce stagnate or worse over the past decade. Inflationism and his accomplice malinvestment are the culprits behind pathetic productivity trends and declining living standards. Worse yet, Inflationism and his many cohorts are fomenting disturbing social, political and geopolitical turmoil. And reminiscent of the Weimar hyperinflation, central bankers somehow remain oblivious that their operations are of primary responsibility. If people don’t these days trust central bankers, politicians, Wall Street, and governments and institutions more generally, just wait until the Bubble bursts.”
Trump’s job this election cycle is to lance the boil, to open the steam valve, to let a little of the immense pressure building under the surface escape in relatively harmless fashion.
Cloggie said; “….ghung, you are far too smart to not understand that 9/11 stinks to high heaven….”
…and Cloggie is far too (brash, young, arrogant, dumb; take your pick because I’m unsure which), to know when to pick his/her battles wisely. Thinking these constant/obsessive posts are more than a waste of energy and time, or that they are going to have any effect on anything; change the course of history or somesuch, is indicative of a hubris I don’t share. For all I know, Cloggie is a paid shill. Such are things on the web. Me? I have cucumbers and beans to pick; pickles to can.
Cloggie on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 2:15 pm
“For all I know, Cloggie is a paid shill. ”
For who? Trump? Putin? Geert Wilders? Hitler.lol
For you is doesn’t take much to convince yourself that you “know” something. There are several here who know me well over almost five years and I never was accused of being a troll or similar.
Accusation score as far as I can remember…
Neo-nazi (Beery)
Self-important European (Davy)
Arrogant (DC)
Moron (apneaman)
But if somebody wants to subsidize me, by all means.
Profile: political orientation: green-right, a non-existing movement. I vote Wilders for lack of something better, would vote Trump if I had US passport, I admire Putin and I think Europeans have a right to survive as a distinct society. No longer believe that peakoil is the defining event for the immediate future, like I did believe 5-3 years ago. Currently geopolitics and finance more accute that resource depletion.
And please send two degrees of global warming to Holland, especially in the summer, thanks in advance.
peakyeast on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 2:56 pm
“Henry Hazlitt, Economics in One Lesson, page 176”
Goddamn!! – ONE lesson and at least 176 pages. I hope there is a lot of graphs 😀
Maybe the definition of american lessons are different, but where I live they are normally 1½ hours.
I do agree, though.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 4:03 pm
“Currently geopolitics and finance more acute that resource depletion.”
Except that geopolitical and financial disasters in the making are derived almost entirely from the effects of resource depletion.
But most people don’t understand that, of course.
onlooker on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 4:36 pm
“Except that geopolitical and financial disasters in the making are derived almost entirely from the effects of resource depletion.” umm I would dispute that somewhat. While resources ultimately demarcate and delineate the trajectory of these human areas of concern the ongoing circumstances and actions stem from AP’s reference to our primate urges and motivations
Cloggie on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 4:37 pm
“But most people don’t understand that, of course.’
Thank God the world has you around to enlighten the dimm-witted masses.
All ears.
Allow me this micro-agressive argument first…
Why can’t we tentatively conclude that the oil price is low compared to 2008 because of the extra supply due to fracking (a phenomenon known to oldskool economists as pork cycle), rapidly growing application of renewable energy sources all over the world and an ever increasing openness of the general public towards energy saving measures?
Just a thought.
onlooker on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 5:17 pm
Here is what I and AP are talking about in ape behavior aka. power dynamics.
“For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence–on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice, on guerrillas by night instead of armies by day. It is a system which has conscripted vast human and material resources into the building of a tightly knit, highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific and political operations.” From a speech by John Kennedy referring to in my opinion the Financial elite not Communism as some have interpreted it.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 7:01 pm
onlooker — It is the base primate urges and motivations characteristic of the human race (greed, lust for power, envy, distrust, etc.) that have driven us to the advanced state of resource depletion that we now find ourselves in. And the same behavioral attributes that guarantee a catastrophic response to global economic collapse rather than a more “socially organized” and collective working together to solve common problems. That’s how I see it, anyway. So I don’t entirely dispute your dispute. 🙂
onlooker on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 7:12 pm
Haha NORTH I think we are actually thus not disputing anything
Apneaman on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 8:22 pm
Cloggie, I don’t recall ever addressing you before. In fact, if my mind is working properly, I could swear you are practically brand new around here. Is Cloggie just a new name? If so what was the old one?
cloggie, most of the world is ruled by jews. That is why they are almost universally hated and killed.
taw on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 10:45 pm
On bicycling: I’ve experimented with commuting about twice a week for 6 years putting 5500 miles on an electric, 1000 an a flat bar, and 3500 on a drop bar road.
Conclusion: Its a viable commuter option for up to 10 miles one way if wide road shoulders or bike lanes are available. Electric’s are fun, but on mine flat tires could not be repaired on the road. 53 lb bikes get flat tires too often. Drop bar road bikes are more efficient than flat bars. Intersections are the biggest risk. Two of the four year round commuters I know have been hit by cars.
Scooters require being in the car lanes. Currently that is just too dangerous for most commuting.
onlooker on Sun, 14th Aug 2016 2:26 am
Yeah but it is not your average Jew we are talking about but financially powerful ones more aptly referred to as Zionists
makati1 on Sun, 14th Aug 2016 2:53 am
onlooker, That may be so, but throughout hisotry they have been the meddlers in most countries and wars. Who are they?
Kissinge
Bernanke
Rahm Emanuel (White House chief of staff.)
Sergey Brin (Founder of Google)
David Axelrod (Senior White House Adviser)
Etc.
“Vanity Fair’s latest list of the 100 most powerful people in the world, 51 are Jews”
Who owns most of the US MSM? Who owns or runs most of the banks? Who owns you? Probably a jew.
Cloggie on Sun, 14th Aug 2016 7:16 am
“Yeah but it is not your average Jew we are talking about but financially powerful ones more aptly referred to as Zionists”
Zionists are the relatively normal Jews, people who want a homeland of their own, complete with flag, anthem, a Trumpian wall to keep Palestinians out, government and hoods populated with people of their own.
The real movers and shakers are what Henry Ford dubbed “The International Jews”. There is no need to postulate dubious secret societies like “The Elders of Zion”. The religion IS the conspiracy. If you tell yourself and your children for thousands of years that you are “Gods Choosen People”, destined to inherit the world and rule over the stupid Goyim and that the way to achieve that aim is smartness, intellectualism and high-IQ, than you shouln’t be surprised that at some point in time these people are going to make themselves felt in the public arena, even with relatively small numbers (perhaps 15 million). But numbers don’t count. At the top of the power structures of the planets largest bullies (USA and USSR in the 20th century) there is only room for a few hundred or few thousand movers and shakers at best. And when you look in detail who these people at the top are, you arrive at makati’s Vanity Fair list.
The 1933 Roosevelt government consisted for half of Jews. There is a youtube video with a very uneasy Vladimir Putin who says that during the early years the Soviet government consisted for 80-85% of Jews, confirming what Hitler had said, while justifying his decission to throw them out, because he wanted to prevent that would happened to the Russians, would happen to the Germans and other Europeans as well. After the war, the victorious Americans set up a war tribunal and acused the Germans of having gassed 6 million Jews. The #2 in the Nuremberg tribunal hierarchy Thomas J. Dodd wrote in a letter to his wife that 75% of the staff of the tribunal consisted of Jews. After the end of the American era we are going to have a little discussion about that tribunal when it will be legal to have this discussion. The necessary books have already been written, although many authors had to do time in European prisons for these books. But with the internet around and total information transparancy that is now irrelevant. A German judge has already openly declared the “the truth is no defense”, meaning the 1968 establishment lost the debate.
Quote American senator Dodd:
“You know how I have despised anti-Semitism. You know how strongly I feel toward those who preach intolerance of any kind. With that knowledge — you will understand when I tell you that this staff is about seventy-five percent Jewish. Now my point is that the Jews should stay away from this trial — for their own sake. For — mark this well — the charge ‘a war for the Jews’ is still being made and in the post-war years it will be made again and again. The too large percentage of Jewish men and women here will be cited as proof of this charge. Sometimes it seems that the Jews will never learn about these things. They seem intent on bringing new difficulties down on their own heads. I do not like to write about this matter — it is distasteful to me — but I am disturbed about it. They are pushing and crowding and competing with each other and with everyone else.””
75%, well, well, well.
Dodd was a man with remarkable foresight.
In Davy’s home town Hermann-Missouri you can find the following sign:
Hermann is “sister city” of the Hessian town Bad Arolsen in Germany, which is the seat of an office of the Red Cross, burdened with the evaluation of German “Nazi” data from concentration camps. The Germans kept records of concentration camp inmates and registered the cause of death. The Red Cross meanwhile has completed its job and published the following result:
Official Alllied response: Germans did not keep health records from those they send to the gas chambers immediately.
We all know that Soviets and Americans never told a single lie in their entire history.
I mean, where would we be if we can’t even trust Americans and Soviets, I am asking you?
Davy on Sun, 14th Aug 2016 7:43 am
I get so tired of here the Zionist shit. Who cares? Like we are going to change things. Get a life with what matters. The bigger picture is done and does not matter. The Jews are going to die like everyone else.
paulo1 on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 2:09 pm
This is an excellent article to come out of my self-induced exile for. Heinberg is bang on with his points. In particular: “My colleagues and I keep trying to do just that. But at this point it also makes sense to batten down the hatches and build resilience close to home.”
I am sure that most of you know the following sites, but when you tire of people calling each other fucktards (and worse) on PO.com, you may want to visit:
http://oilprice.com/
and:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/
I would also hope that in future moderators will control some of the more blatant forms of personal attack on this site. The very first day back, from a hiatus of 8 months from PO.com, the first comment I read called another poster a ‘fucktard’. I had to check the address bar to see if it was a Trump news clip.
Anyway, after reading the site for a few days I see that most of you are well. Take care.
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 3:26 pm
Some areas do better without oil than others:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/11/scotland-completely-powered-by-wind-turbines-for-a-day
IPissOnLoser on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 3:39 pm
Some people have finally starting to realize that this is no debt or money issues. It is really and energy and thermodynamics constraint on which this planet is built on and limited by.
This planet is subject to the law of conservation of energy and thermodynamic, not the law of money and debt that are only human invention.
We have as a specie to move beyond the concept of financial transaction to a concept of energy transaction.
The author suggest to use the terms thermodynamic collapse of industrial civilization instead of peak oil. Like I said people are starting to see the light.
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:06 pm
Ipiss, China started its way “upp” driving on bicycles. Then for some reason they decided that mopeds, scooters and cars were better transportation.
If we take away the personal fossil fuel dependent transportation that we have to day, and replace it with good old bicycles, then the world would actually be better. Can we do that ?
IPissOnLoser on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:33 pm
The scooter idea seems a great way to move away from the car without disturbing too much society.
I was looking recently to buy a scooter myself.
Taiwan has a very efficient scooter infrastructure that is worth looking at and coping.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2krBb8jt3Q
More bicycle path is also a good idea like they do in Sweden.
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:37 pm
Ipiss said: “This planet is subject to the law of conservation of energy and thermodynamic”.
And by your logics the world should have warmed up by just as much as all the coal and oil we have burned through history.
That doesn’t seem to be the case.
The planet is all the time losing heat to space, but the real and acute problem is that because of the co2 barrier in the atmosphere we cant get rid of our surplous heat.
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:46 pm
Ipiss said: The scooter idea seems a great way to move away from the car without disturbing too much society.
The scooter came before the car, so it can not have replaced the car. And actually the scooters are very inefficient gas-burners.
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:52 pm
IPissonlosers, Please find another name.
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 4:56 pm
I think it’s a no-brainer. Stop selling gas/petrol to ordinary people. start seling bicycles
Plantagenet on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 5:04 pm
Oil has always been a boom and bust commodity. We had a big boom in oil up until 2014. Oil prices and investment surged and an oil glut resulted. Now we are in the oil glut and the oil industry is in a bust.
I don’t see why we won’t have another boom in a few more years. The oil glut has to end eventually, and as supply tightens oil prices will go back up. The cycle will repeat again.
At some point we will hit peak oil, but it may take 1-2 more boom and bust cycles to get there.
Cheers!
claman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 5:15 pm
Plant , wouldn’t it be nice if people started using either legs or bicycles. That would delay peakoil for our children and hopefully their children as well.
makati1 on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 5:52 pm
claman, have you ever flown over the Midwest? You know, that huge area between the West and East Coasts. If you had, you would know that bicycles are for city folk, not most of the country outside.
shortonoil on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 6:07 pm
Peak Oil is the point where the world reaches the maximum petroleum production that will ever occur. That definition is clear cut, and definitive. But, the results of that happening, and its timing have always been a matter of pure speculation. It was always assumed that once production reached Peak that it would slowly slide down the back side of Hubbert’s curve; that economic activity would decline as a result of that slowing production, and that there would be an ever increasing rise in its price in the face of scarcity. That part was pure speculation. It also completely ignored why oil was used in the first place.
Of course, there is no scarcity, there never was, nor can there be. The world still posses up to 2,700 Gb of liquid hydrocarbons. About twice as much as what has already been consumed. Peak Oil can not come about for at least a century as a result of a supply shortage. It can only come about as a result of why it was used in the first place. It was used as an energy source, and an energy scarcity will be its undoing. The reason why it was used is why oil production is a thermodynamic process, and not a process of pumping black goo out of the ground. The Peakers have been trying to count the barrels produced, and completely missed the energy.
That is all that has ever mattered, and it is all that ever will.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Harquebus on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 6:28 pm
Heinberg know the problem very well however, he doesn’t have a clue on the solution.
Wind and solar energy collectors are net energy sinks. Their demise is only a matter of time.
sunweb on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 6:30 pm
i have a 250 Honda Reflex. It will cruise at 65 mph and gets 65 mpg at that speed. This is on country roads, no traffic except deer, turkeys, little varmints of all sorts and an occasional eagle.
However, winter would be a problem, we are 5 miles from town. I can carry quite a bit on it.
Kenz300 on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 6:39 pm
Electric cars, trucks, bicycles and mass transit are the future…..fossil fuel ICE cars are the past…………..
Riding a bike is fun and good exercise………walking, bicycles, mass transit and electric vehicles will all be part of making cities livable.
Ride to school………ride to work………ride for fun………..
Bike to work day should be everyday….. employers need to provide places to park and lock bicycles and encourage employees to ride a bicycle to work.
Children should be riding a bike to school instead of being dropped off by their parents.
Cities need to do more to provide safe walking and biking trails and paths that connect homes, schools and businesses.
Obesity is a growing problem around the world leading to an increase in heart disease, cancer and high blood pressure. Walking and biking can help improve health.
Buy a child a bicycle……your son, daughter, niece, nephew, grandchild or donate one to a local charity as a fund raiser giveaway. You will change a life…………
Anonymous on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 6:46 pm
Scooters, with there 2-stroke engines are major sources of air pollution in asia. Could scooters be made ‘cleaner’, or at very least, less dirty? Probably, but in the main, a great many 2 stroke scooters are as bad at generating noise, pollution and congestion as there 2 ton counterparts. Its different kind of dirty and problems, but still filthy and problematic. The underlying problem, the one of that requires huge masses of people to move around constantly, is the real issue.
Apneaman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 6:54 pm
Kenz you should ride a bike……in heavy traffic……without a helmet………at night…….while shitfaced.
Plantagenet on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 7:02 pm
@claman
YES. Of course it is nice to use legs and bicycles. I do that frequently and I recommend you do you the same.
I just bought a full size folding bike —- store it in a bag and you can take them anywhere, then unfold it and clip the frame back together and off you go. I’ve had a little folding mini-bike I picked up in Japan many years ago, but the full-size folding bike is the way to go if you are a serious bicycler.
Cheers!
Plantagenet on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 7:08 pm
There are quite good electric scooters/motorcycles out now—fast clean and energy efficient with zero carbon emissions. Check out this electric BMW
http://www.bmwmotorcycle.com/c-evolution_electric_maxi-scooter.htm
I’m still using my older 400 cc Italian Scooter for local trips that are too long to do by bicycle. It gets about 90 mpg and is a blast to ride. In Italy and Paris and Barcelona and over much of Europe scooters are very widely used. We should learn from our European cousins and use scooters more to reduce fuel consumption here in the USA.
Cheers!
Northwest Resident on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 8:12 pm
“Peak Oil is the point where…”
Peak Presidential Bullshit is the point where Donald Trump boldly declares that Obama and Hillary are founder and co-founder of ISIS. I always figured that Trump’s real goal was to make himself into a mockable parody of your typical everyday radical right wing old white racist and fanatically religious numbnut, to give voice to their idiocy and to lead them into total humiliation. If so, then Trump is doing a splendid job.
Peak financial engineering is when the central banks (think “Sweden”) print billion$ and then buy up over-valued securities on the mercantile exchanges, without announcement, while everybody else is a net seller. Combined with record corporate buy-backs and continued massive printing (CTL ALT P), is it any wonder the stock “market” is roaring to new heights.
Peak Civilization is when the deluded and propagandized and junk-food poisoned blobbish masses of citizenry become so addicted to digital displays and sweet lies whispered in their ears that they become virtually incapacitated as a thinking human being, and stumble blindly from one cheesy episode to another on their way to that one final outburst of feeble misdirected energy and utter horror when the fake world they thought they lived in collapses into dust.
Peak Copy Cat is when Northwest Resident has just read a chapter from Memories of Ice and has a few minutes after his usual workout to sit down and attempt to emulate Kruppe.
JuanP on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 8:45 pm
Claman, If I have to choose between driving my SUV and feeding your children then your children will starve to death. I hope you realize that your children are doomed because most people are not willing to make any sacrifices to save them. That is why I had a Vasectomy and no children. You should learn how to grow food organically and teach them how to do it; they will need that knowledge. If you think that people will stop polluting, consuming, and breeding and save the biosphere from obliteration you are deluded. Even most of the people who have children are not willing to make any sacrifices for them. Look around you!
jjhman on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 9:47 pm
Today on the radio I heard that “modern civilization” discharges 8 tons of plastic waste PER MINUTE into the environment. We can probably continue at about that rate until there is no oil left, way past its usefulness as an energy source. Sigh.
Roger on Thu, 11th Aug 2016 9:49 pm
Nice article…most of it is spot on.
Commendably, the author does acknowledge his lack of understanding in one regard:
” It’s simply unclear whether the global economy can consistently support an oil price that’s sufficiently robust to pay the industry to extract and refine the kinds of resources that remain.”
As phrased by the author, a valid point. Unfortunately, lesser minds transpose this into “the economy can’t afford expensive oil, so oil prices will fall.” Which is nonsense.
Rest assured, the oil producers will be paid. What will happen is “price rationing.” That is, the parts of the global economy that cannot afford oil priced at its marginal cost of production will have to do without. Yes, the economy will contract, but the price of oil will continue to rise.
Cloggie on Fri, 12th Aug 2016 3:48 am
@NWR “Peak Presidential Bullshit is the point where Donald Trump boldly declares that Obama and Hillary are founder and co-founder of ISIS. I always figured that Trump’s real goal was to make himself into a mockable parody ”
You really disappoint me NWR:
https://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2014/08/13/senator-john-mccains-whoops-moment-photographed-chilling-with-isis-chief-al-baghdadi-and-terrorist-muahmmad-noor/
Since the rise of Trump it has become abundantly clear that the Washington polit establishment is one homogeneous mash and that Dems en Reps will conspire together to keep outsiders like Trump out.
The pictures in the link clearly show that IS had contacts with US politics at the highest level.
The US establishment (CFR doing the thinking, deciding and planning and water carriers like McCain, Obama and Clinton carrying it out) agreed to provide IS with weapons, via their proxies Turkey, Qatar and KSA with the aim to topple Assad, an entity that resisted to become a US proxy itself.
But rather than doing the dirty work for the US empire, head chopper society IS fooled Washington and decided to start a Caliphate of their own, rather than handing Syrian territory over to Washington and begin a future of wimmen’s rights, multiculturalism, porn, gay pride parades, gay marriage, abortion, McDonalds in every town, secularist state, holocaust worship and a few American goodies more. Thanks but no thanks.
Really, NWR…
Trump is entirely correct.
Cloggie on Fri, 12th Aug 2016 4:05 am
For NWR:
General Clark:
https://youtu.be/r8FhZnFZ6TY
[1:29]
French confirmation of being approached by US proxy UK to start war in Syria, two years before it happened:
https://youtu.be/Kz-s2AAh06I
Now it is likely that the US will attempt to sick its new proxy Ukraine in a direct war against Russia over Crimea, just like the US sicked Poland in a war against Germany in 1939 by ensuring war by pushing Britain and France in a war guarantee first and next encourage the Poles to persecute the Germans forced to live in Versailles Poland:
http://fotos.fotoflexer.com/2141aee9270ba15befc04a49ffe2c656.jpg
That’s American politics for ya.
These hundreds of thousands of Syrian deaths are the responsibility of the US by intentionlly destabilizing countries like Syria, Iraq and Libya.
Hopefully the “old white racist” Trump will put a stop to that.
Cloud9 on Fri, 12th Aug 2016 5:52 am
Economic collapse will do what no political movement can. It will collapse the piggy bank of the deep state. Once federal pay checks fail to have clout, the byzantine Leviathan that has evolved over the last two centuries will disappear like a morning mist. The cities are nine meals away from chaos.
Cloggie on Fri, 12th Aug 2016 10:16 am
Agree. Political systems can’t reform themselves. Even good old Gorbachev sincerely tried it, but even he couldn’t prevent that events took their own course and the USSR evaporated, which had never been the intention of Gorby.
Trump, if elected, could very well become the American Gorbachev. He wants to set the US on a more isolationist, anti-globalist course and begin to mnid his own business, an excellent idea. But a financial collapse could trigger a social collapse, with eventually the rise of the Amerikaner:
http://therightstuff.biz/2016/06/16/behold-i-teach-you-the-amerikaner/
1776 revisited.
Cloggie on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 10:20 am
This Heinberg longread is a good opportunity to sum up ten years of personal peak oil interest. I dug up my copy of Heinberg’s 2nd 2005 edition of “The Party is Over”, which I read in May 2007, when I still lived in Leiden (Holland) making good money while working freelance for the Federation of Dutch Chamber of Commerce, porting their software from Cobol to J2EE. Hence I could afford to live in an apartment in one of the houses on the right…
https://www.verzamelaarsmarkt.nl/nl/ansichtkaarten/6/24268/leiden/grachten/leiden-24713.aspx
…overlooking the Old Rhine river and the Mayflower hotel on the opposite. It was from these waters that the Pilgrim Fathers and their Mayflower left for America four centuries ago. They and Dutch Protestants set up the competing New England and New Netherlands projects, defining the character of the later American Republic until today. This river also constituted the upper northern frontier of the Roman empire, that stretched southwards as far as southern Egypt. I lived on the Roman side, hotel Mayflower is on the tribal Germanic side.
Browsing through Heinberg’s book which made a great impact on me, filled with yellow textliner stripes and annotations:
H admits that much of the book is inspired by dieoff.org. but also that the end of industrial civilization doesn’t mean the end of the world. H came to energy from an ecological angle (meaning sceptical attitude towards industrialism, perhaps secretly hoping for peak oil to occur as soon as possible) and was in favor of renewable energy before possible depletion became an issue. Typical American attitude of racial egalitarianism, H is a hardcore leftie. H says he completely relies on the judgment of retired oil engineers. H core message is that soon with every passing year less nett energy will be available per capita. H is nevertheless prudently optimistic about the future (H hates technology and industry, wants to play his violin in his backyard with carrots and beets, wants to smoke the peace pipe with adventurous substances, together with Chief Blackfoot, is a romanticist who loves grandiose American landscapes and endless forrests. Well, it is an attitude, much prevalent on this forum). The rise of America to super power status was largely based on oil. The industrial revolution started in Europe, but was taken over by America which outperformed Europe due to a richer resource base. The Dutch for instance got their oil from Indonesia, that is the other side of the world. US citizens now have 150 virtual slaves per capita. A manday work equivalent in electricity now costs 25 cents (1 kwh). Interstate Highway System as the largest public works program in history, pushing back rail. H flirts with the idea that Iraq invading Kuwait could have been provoked by the US (“April Glaspie”). H disappointed in results Clinton-Gore ticket: almost nothing was achieved with renewable energy, instead globalism ruled. Saudi proverb: My father rode a camel, I drive a car, my son flies an airplane, his son will ride a camel. H is clearly a 9/11 truther and far more honest and courageous than our resident empire and mass murder apologist ghung. Hubbert and the peak oil concept. Predicted in 1956 the US production oil peak of 1970. H leans heavy on Campbell who predicted in 1998 that oil output could decline before 2010. H arrives on page 115 on the peak oil date of 2006-2007.
On p127 H does mention shale oil, en passant mentioning eroei, but not fracking. H refers to 6$/Watt PV, currently it is less than 1$/Watt. Ridiculous GW Bush quote from 2002: “we need more energy consumption”. H predicts that post-industrial agriculture will be able to support 2 billion people max. On p208 H prudently, between the lines, rejects the idea os mass migration. For H the US is an empire in steep decline. On p213 H accurately foresees what will happen is the US would leave Iraq: political chaos is in the entire ME, which is exactly what happened since. On p215 H predicts the possibility of renewed rivalry between the US and Russia, which happened also. On p215 H refers to the possibility of Paris-Berlin-Moscow with perhaps even China added to the mix, a US nightmare. The US actions in Ukraine prevented PBM for the moment but Moscow-Beijing axis did happen, the final act of sabotage against the NWO. H also correctly predicted that there won’t be a shooting war over Iran. p221, H doesn’t believe that the ultimate doomer scenario (“OlduvaiGorge”) will happen. Summarizing, which party is going to end? Peak global energie per capita production/consumption; collapse of globalism; collapse of the grid. Remedies: grow your own food and produce your own energy and provide youw own health care, isolate your home, save energy, don’t buy stuff mindlessly, dump the car, orient yourself on your community, use local currencies. Design cities for communities, not for the car. Supports national birth limitation programs. h is against migration. H says that the US may decline, but there will not be a successor imperialist. H is pro-train. Hopes for a future of less of everything including less stress.
ghung on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 10:40 am
Cloggie wrote; “….far more honest and courageous than our resident empire and mass murder apologist ghung…”
Cry foul! Cloggie; show me one post where I supported US empire or was an apologist. Show me where I specifically denied 9/11 or any of that. Challenging your sources isn’t the same thing. I suggest you go work for Trump, since he obviously could use a better spin doctor.
You sir, are an exceptionally dishonest individual, and I suspect you are merely projecting that underlying quality on others. Further, you admit to being an ongoing beneficiary of this industrial culture, which makes you at least as GUILTY as anyone here. Hypocricy.
Cloggie on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 11:38 am
ghung, you are far too smart to not understand that 9/11 stinks to high heaven and Israel must have been involved. But instead of acknowledging that obvious fact you recently choose to sabotage the discussion about 9/11 and hence my accusation that you are willing to cover up an event that served as the initiation point of the US invasion of Iraq and subsequent complete destabilisation of the ME with hundreds of thousands of people killed.
There is a lot I do NOT like about Trump, but at least with him you have much more chance on world peace than with Clinton.
So yes, go Trump!
Northwest Resident on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 12:06 pm
Cloggie disappointed with me? How disappointing!
Read this:
Is Trump Deliberately Throwing The Election To Clinton?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-12/trump-deliberately-throwing-election-clinton
Just a little bit of circumstantial affirmation of what I (and others) have long suspected. Not that I agree with everything the writer has to say.
We live in very complicated times. Beneath the thin façade of “all is well”, dire troubles are percolating, threatening to explode. The social fabric in America is disintegrating. Anger, bitterness, resentment, disillusionment and deep distrust have taken root in America. This witch’s cauldron will blow sky high one of these days, and just about any spark will set it off.
The value of Trump from the PTB point of view is that he gives official voice to the anger and deep resentment that the increasingly despairing masses are feeling. The powers that be have apparently decided that it is impossible to placate the many millions of U.S. citizens who have been kicked to the curb by globalization and historic wealth transfer. And as any Machiavellian-indoctrinated group of rulers would know, if you can’t control or destroy a revolution in the making, then the next best option is to co-opt it, to manipulate it, and to by so doing direct it down a path of least resistance.
Sure, it isn’t a long term strategy. But clearly, in all respects, the powers that be are only concerned with buying time for the short term.
Trump isn’t a Hillary Clinton agent, any more than Hillary Clinton is deserving of the formerly great position of the U.S. Presidency. Both of them are players in a game that is being plotted and controlled by powers far greater than a hamstrung president could ever dream of wielding. Both are agents representing the same source of vast and concealed power.
The game is the same as it has been since at least 1970: BUY TIME. Extend and pretend. Stamp out threats to the extend and pretend regime when possible, or control and manipulate threats that can’t be eliminated. Buy Time.
We don’t know what the big plan is, or to what end the powers that be are buying time. But we aren’t that far away from finding out. In the meantime, Cloggie, if you find yourself feeling a little disappointed in others’ points of view, maybe you should reevaluate your own perspective.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 12:16 pm
“It [Inflation] discourages all prudence and thrift. It encourages squandering, gambling, reckless waste of all kinds. It often makes it more profitable to speculate than to produce. It tears apart the whole fabric of stable economic relationships. Its inexcusable injustices drive men toward desperate remedies. It plants the seeds of fascism and communism. It leads men to demand totalitarian controls. (i.e., TRUMP) It ends invariably in bitter disillusion and collapse.” Henry Hazlitt, Economics in One Lesson, page 176
The FED certainly won’t admit to it, but inflation is destroying lives daily in America and across the globe.
But there was no choice. It was inflate or die, and that choice was made many years ago, probably around 1970 when the powers that be realized that there was not enough energy or resources to provide for the exponentially increasing population.
The collapse that we all talk about has been ongoing, subtly at first, ever more pronounced day by day now, for over 40 years. The long step-down collapse that Greer writes about is in progress and has been for a long time.
“Inflationism has seen real wages for much of the workforce stagnate or worse over the past decade. Inflationism and his accomplice malinvestment are the culprits behind pathetic productivity trends and declining living standards. Worse yet, Inflationism and his many cohorts are fomenting disturbing social, political and geopolitical turmoil. And reminiscent of the Weimar hyperinflation, central bankers somehow remain oblivious that their operations are of primary responsibility. If people don’t these days trust central bankers, politicians, Wall Street, and governments and institutions more generally, just wait until the Bubble bursts.”
Trump’s job this election cycle is to lance the boil, to open the steam valve, to let a little of the immense pressure building under the surface escape in relatively harmless fashion.
http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2016/08/weekly-commentary-inflation.html
ghung on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 1:04 pm
Cloggie said; “….ghung, you are far too smart to not understand that 9/11 stinks to high heaven….”
…and Cloggie is far too (brash, young, arrogant, dumb; take your pick because I’m unsure which), to know when to pick his/her battles wisely. Thinking these constant/obsessive posts are more than a waste of energy and time, or that they are going to have any effect on anything; change the course of history or somesuch, is indicative of a hubris I don’t share. For all I know, Cloggie is a paid shill. Such are things on the web. Me? I have cucumbers and beans to pick; pickles to can.
Cloggie on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 2:15 pm
“For all I know, Cloggie is a paid shill. ”
For who? Trump? Putin? Geert Wilders? Hitler.lol
For you is doesn’t take much to convince yourself that you “know” something. There are several here who know me well over almost five years and I never was accused of being a troll or similar.
Accusation score as far as I can remember…
Neo-nazi (Beery)
Self-important European (Davy)
Arrogant (DC)
Moron (apneaman)
But if somebody wants to subsidize me, by all means.
Profile: political orientation: green-right, a non-existing movement. I vote Wilders for lack of something better, would vote Trump if I had US passport, I admire Putin and I think Europeans have a right to survive as a distinct society. No longer believe that peakoil is the defining event for the immediate future, like I did believe 5-3 years ago. Currently geopolitics and finance more accute that resource depletion.
And please send two degrees of global warming to Holland, especially in the summer, thanks in advance.
peakyeast on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 2:56 pm
“Henry Hazlitt, Economics in One Lesson, page 176”
Goddamn!! – ONE lesson and at least 176 pages. I hope there is a lot of graphs 😀
Maybe the definition of american lessons are different, but where I live they are normally 1½ hours.
I do agree, though.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 4:03 pm
“Currently geopolitics and finance more acute that resource depletion.”
Except that geopolitical and financial disasters in the making are derived almost entirely from the effects of resource depletion.
But most people don’t understand that, of course.
onlooker on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 4:36 pm
“Except that geopolitical and financial disasters in the making are derived almost entirely from the effects of resource depletion.” umm I would dispute that somewhat. While resources ultimately demarcate and delineate the trajectory of these human areas of concern the ongoing circumstances and actions stem from AP’s reference to our primate urges and motivations
Cloggie on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 4:37 pm
“But most people don’t understand that, of course.’
Thank God the world has you around to enlighten the dimm-witted masses.
All ears.
Allow me this micro-agressive argument first…
Why can’t we tentatively conclude that the oil price is low compared to 2008 because of the extra supply due to fracking (a phenomenon known to oldskool economists as pork cycle), rapidly growing application of renewable energy sources all over the world and an ever increasing openness of the general public towards energy saving measures?
Just a thought.
onlooker on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 5:17 pm
Here is what I and AP are talking about in ape behavior aka. power dynamics.
“For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence–on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice, on guerrillas by night instead of armies by day. It is a system which has conscripted vast human and material resources into the building of a tightly knit, highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific and political operations.” From a speech by John Kennedy referring to in my opinion the Financial elite not Communism as some have interpreted it.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 7:01 pm
onlooker — It is the base primate urges and motivations characteristic of the human race (greed, lust for power, envy, distrust, etc.) that have driven us to the advanced state of resource depletion that we now find ourselves in. And the same behavioral attributes that guarantee a catastrophic response to global economic collapse rather than a more “socially organized” and collective working together to solve common problems. That’s how I see it, anyway. So I don’t entirely dispute your dispute. 🙂
onlooker on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 7:12 pm
Haha NORTH I think we are actually thus not disputing anything
Apneaman on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 8:22 pm
Cloggie, I don’t recall ever addressing you before. In fact, if my mind is working properly, I could swear you are practically brand new around here. Is Cloggie just a new name? If so what was the old one?
Cloggie on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 9:06 pm
Onlooker, there is only one worldwide conspiracy:
https://youtu.be/bN8ianIJ1Sk
makati1 on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 10:17 pm
cloggie, most of the world is ruled by jews. That is why they are almost universally hated and killed.
taw on Sat, 13th Aug 2016 10:45 pm
On bicycling: I’ve experimented with commuting about twice a week for 6 years putting 5500 miles on an electric, 1000 an a flat bar, and 3500 on a drop bar road.
Conclusion: Its a viable commuter option for up to 10 miles one way if wide road shoulders or bike lanes are available. Electric’s are fun, but on mine flat tires could not be repaired on the road. 53 lb bikes get flat tires too often. Drop bar road bikes are more efficient than flat bars. Intersections are the biggest risk. Two of the four year round commuters I know have been hit by cars.
Scooters require being in the car lanes. Currently that is just too dangerous for most commuting.
onlooker on Sun, 14th Aug 2016 2:26 am
Yeah but it is not your average Jew we are talking about but financially powerful ones more aptly referred to as Zionists
makati1 on Sun, 14th Aug 2016 2:53 am
onlooker, That may be so, but throughout hisotry they have been the meddlers in most countries and wars. Who are they?
Kissinge
Bernanke
Rahm Emanuel (White House chief of staff.)
Sergey Brin (Founder of Google)
David Axelrod (Senior White House Adviser)
Etc.
“Vanity Fair’s latest list of the 100 most powerful people in the world, 51 are Jews”
http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-Features/Worlds-50-most-influential-Jews
Who owns most of the US MSM? Who owns or runs most of the banks? Who owns you? Probably a jew.
Cloggie on Sun, 14th Aug 2016 7:16 am
“Yeah but it is not your average Jew we are talking about but financially powerful ones more aptly referred to as Zionists”
Zionists are the relatively normal Jews, people who want a homeland of their own, complete with flag, anthem, a Trumpian wall to keep Palestinians out, government and hoods populated with people of their own.
The real movers and shakers are what Henry Ford dubbed “The International Jews”. There is no need to postulate dubious secret societies like “The Elders of Zion”. The religion IS the conspiracy. If you tell yourself and your children for thousands of years that you are “Gods Choosen People”, destined to inherit the world and rule over the stupid Goyim and that the way to achieve that aim is smartness, intellectualism and high-IQ, than you shouln’t be surprised that at some point in time these people are going to make themselves felt in the public arena, even with relatively small numbers (perhaps 15 million). But numbers don’t count. At the top of the power structures of the planets largest bullies (USA and USSR in the 20th century) there is only room for a few hundred or few thousand movers and shakers at best. And when you look in detail who these people at the top are, you arrive at makati’s Vanity Fair list.
The 1933 Roosevelt government consisted for half of Jews. There is a youtube video with a very uneasy Vladimir Putin who says that during the early years the Soviet government consisted for 80-85% of Jews, confirming what Hitler had said, while justifying his decission to throw them out, because he wanted to prevent that would happened to the Russians, would happen to the Germans and other Europeans as well. After the war, the victorious Americans set up a war tribunal and acused the Germans of having gassed 6 million Jews. The #2 in the Nuremberg tribunal hierarchy Thomas J. Dodd wrote in a letter to his wife that 75% of the staff of the tribunal consisted of Jews. After the end of the American era we are going to have a little discussion about that tribunal when it will be legal to have this discussion. The necessary books have already been written, although many authors had to do time in European prisons for these books. But with the internet around and total information transparancy that is now irrelevant. A German judge has already openly declared the “the truth is no defense”, meaning the 1968 establishment lost the debate.
Quote American senator Dodd:
“You know how I have despised anti-Semitism. You know how strongly I feel toward those who preach intolerance of any kind. With that knowledge — you will understand when I tell you that this staff is about seventy-five percent Jewish. Now my point is that the Jews should stay away from this trial — for their own sake. For — mark this well — the charge ‘a war for the Jews’ is still being made and in the post-war years it will be made again and again. The too large percentage of Jewish men and women here will be cited as proof of this charge. Sometimes it seems that the Jews will never learn about these things. They seem intent on bringing new difficulties down on their own heads. I do not like to write about this matter — it is distasteful to me — but I am disturbed about it. They are pushing and crowding and competing with each other and with everyone else.””
75%, well, well, well.
Dodd was a man with remarkable foresight.
In Davy’s home town Hermann-Missouri you can find the following sign:
http://www.waymarking.com/gallery/image.aspx?f=1&guid=c26f29ed-332f-4bc2-ab7d-d10522b317d7
Hermann is “sister city” of the Hessian town Bad Arolsen in Germany, which is the seat of an office of the Red Cross, burdened with the evaluation of German “Nazi” data from concentration camps. The Germans kept records of concentration camp inmates and registered the cause of death. The Red Cross meanwhile has completed its job and published the following result:
https://furtherglory.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/arolsen21.jpg
282k deaths, mostly from typhus, none from gas.
Official Alllied response: Germans did not keep health records from those they send to the gas chambers immediately.
We all know that Soviets and Americans never told a single lie in their entire history.
I mean, where would we be if we can’t even trust Americans and Soviets, I am asking you?
Davy on Sun, 14th Aug 2016 7:43 am
I get so tired of here the Zionist shit. Who cares? Like we are going to change things. Get a life with what matters. The bigger picture is done and does not matter. The Jews are going to die like everyone else.