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Page added on November 26, 2015

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Driving in the US is at an all-time high

Driving in the US is at an all-time high thumbnail

Remember peak car? Over the past five years, various analysts and writers have been wondering whether driving in the United States might finally be going out of style. Their reasons: Overall road travel has been dropping since 2008. And there was at least anecdotal evidence that younger Americans preferred city life to suburban sprawl.

Well… it’s time to revise those think pieces. This year, Americans are driving more than they ever have before. Peak car isn’t upon us just yet.

Let’s start with this chart, from Bill McBride of Calculated Risk. Total vehicle miles traveled has been surging of late, with the 12-month rolling average hitting another all-time high in September 2015:

(Bill McBride/Calculated Risk)

The rate of growth has been particularly striking: In September 2015, vehicle travel on all roads and streets was fully 4.3 percent higher than in September 2014. Over the past year, as Reuters’ John Kemp points out, vehicle traffic has grown at its fastest rate since 1997.

But, of course, some of this can be chalked up to simple population growth. There are more people in the United States with each passing year, which generally means more drivers. So a better metric, arguably, is vehicle miles per capita. To that end, Doug North of Advisors Perspective offers the population-adjusted chart below.* Vehicle miles per capita remains lower than it was back in 2005, but it’s nonetheless been rising sharply over the last year:

(<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/DOT-Miles-Traveled.php">Advisor Perspectives</a>)

(Advisor Perspectives)

Either way you slice it, driving has been making a comeback of late. So what’s going on? Is this just a blip — or might America be returning to the faster rates of VMT growth we saw in the 1980s and ’90s?

Cheap gas and a stronger economy are overwhelming the anti-driving forces

A few years ago, when car travel was declining, many people (including me) wondered how much of the drop was due to temporary economic factors — the recession, especially — that would eventually reverse and how much was due to a more lasting cultural shift away from cars, particularly among young people.

Clearly those economic factors mattered a lot. The 2008 recession had far-reaching impacts: it meant that fewer people had jobs and fewer people were commuting to work. Many younger Americans weren’t making enough money to buy their own cars. There was less truck traffic on the road. But now that the economy’s picking up again, driving is going up with it. That shouldn’t come as too much of a shock.

The bigger surprise was the drop in gasoline prices. Between 2008 and 2014, global crude oil prices were at historic highs, north of $100 per barrel, forcing people to cut back on trips. Many experts thought this dynamic would persist indefinitely. But it didn’t. By the summer of 2014, oil prices began plummeting worldwide, thanks to the US fracking boom and weaker-than-expected global demand. Today, gasoline prices in the United States are 35 percent lower than they were in 2013. That’s undoubtedly contributed to the surge in car travel.

On the flip side, there are also some structural factors that are pushing people away from cars. The US population is getting older, and retirees don’t tend to drive as much. What’s more, there’s evidence that (some) younger Americans really do prefer urban life and transit to endless driving, at least on the margins. These structural changes were taking root even before the recession, and they explain why per capita road travel is still hovering below its 2005 peak.

But whatever cultural shifts might be unfolding, they haven’t been enough to offset the effects of cheap gas and an improving economy over the last year. The forces in favor of more driving are currently stronger than the forces in favor of less.

Will driving keep rising rapidly? Or is this just a blip?

(Shutterstock)
An HOV lane stomping on a human face … forever.

This is obviously the big question. The US Energy Information Administration had been expecting car and light truck travel to grow at a sluggish 1.1 percent per year between now and 2040 — a slowdown from historical rates. Is that assumption still correct? Is this year’s uptick in travel just a temporary hiccup? Or might vehicle travel grow faster than expected in the future?

Plenty of people would love to know the answer. States, for instance, have to make predictions about future travel demand to plan highway and roads. If they overestimate future demand, which they were doing back in the mid-2000s, they risk building unnecessary roads. But if they underestimate future demand, they risk not building enough infrastructure.

Then there are the climate and energy implications. As part of the upcoming international climate change talks, the US government is promising that the country’s greenhouse gas emissions will fall at least 26 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. But if vehicle travel ends up growing more quickly than expected, it will be a lot harder to meet this pledge, at least without additional policy measures.

(Side note: the Obama administration has enacted CAFE standards that will crank up the fuel economy of cars and light trucks over time. That should help restrain gasoline demand somewhat. But these standards are also footprint-based, which means they’re less strict for bigger cars than smaller cars. So if cheap gasoline spurs Americans to shift into SUVs and other large vehicles, as appears to be happening right now, it will likely lead to more gasoline consumption and more emissions than originally expected.)

It’s genuinely difficult to know how this will all play out in the decades ahead. What will happen if, say, states or Congress push for further policies to discourage driving, like higher gas taxes, or expanded public transit? What happens if self-driving cars hit the road? Could they end up doubling road travel, as a recent KPMG report suggested? The fact that so many past predictions missed the mark is a nice reminder that over-confident statements about the future are often a bad idea.

 

Vox



76 Comments on "Driving in the US is at an all-time high"

  1. Davy on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 6:35 am 

    Greg, buddy, we have more smart people in the US than your small little uptight country has people. Of your 35MIL how many have much of a brain? I can’t wait to get an education with that one. You handful of Canadian’s on this site spend your day searching for anti-American news cherry pick the worst of our country then have an Anti-American orgy of comments. Somehow being in a group gives you that strength in numbers so you guys believe you are the smartest mother fockers in the world. Anyone with a backbone who stands up to these excesses is pounced on like a gang bang. How smart is that?

  2. makati1 on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 6:45 am 

    What sort of twisted logic is that, Davy? Reality is a problem? The inability to accept that your country is rogue and killing hundreds of thousands of innocent men, women and children all over the world, in an insane attempt to keep some power and to keep the money flowing to the top 1% is moral? The Us destroys countries that don’t bend the knee and kiss the DC ass. Or tries to. It has finally met it’s match and it knows it. You don’t.

    Reality is about to hit the Us squarely between the eyes with that 2X4 and it will never recover. Denial or supporting it will not change anything. Trying to point to other countries as equal in blame for such atrocities is only the refuge of a wimp. “China’s just as bad!” Is not true. China nor Russia has been destroying countries and killing millions to conquer the world. No other country is so arrogant as to proclaim that they are ‘exceptional’. Especially when all of the world knows better.

    Did YOU ever serve in the US military or did you evade it with your family’s money and influence? I did 11 years and almost lost my life in a training accident. Did you?

    Keep up your war against me. I don’t give a damn. I like pointing out that the emperor has no clothes. It’s easy to ignore my comments. They start with ‘Makati1’. LOL

  3. Davy on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 7:07 am 

    Your problem Mak is you have a series of failed agenda’s and now you are desperate. You can’t accept moderation and balance you are all about winners and losers. In your world there is no in between. This is a classic sign of mental illness. Hatred, resentment, and excessive feelings of self-worth drives you to exaggeration and distortions. You are a narcissist and a bully. You don’t even hear my criticisms of the US because these comments are not extremist agenda speak. Mak, I am not going to ignore your comments because your comments are a daily attack on me without considerations. We have gone over this one hundred times over the past couple of years. Your comment above is just for anti-American consumption. You have numbers on your side so you feel righteousness but you are little better than those you hate. Support is intoxicating and you crave it so that drives you to ever greater diatribes of hate. You are truly a blemish on this board.

  4. JuanP on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 7:36 am 

    Davy, Are you arguing that Americans are smarter than other people? I hope not! There are also more deluded assholes, rapists, murderers, retards, ignorant fools, terrorists, and friggin’ morons in the USA, too. I believe that even allowing for the damage that Harper has done to their reputation, Canadians are better liked and considered smarter and better educated than Americans in every corner of the world, except in the delusional USA. And, I can’t help but wonder if even most Americans don’t like Canadians better than other Americans.

  5. Davy on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 7:50 am 

    Anti-Americans like to put worlds in your mouth like Juan above. “Arguing Americans are smarter than other people”. Come on Juan get real. This is about acknowledging there are some smart people in the US. “SOME”, is that OK for you Juan? I agree the US is full of shit for people. I live with it so I see it but I see the good too. Is that OK for you Juan? It “don’t” matter to me the Canadians are more liked. This is not about being liked it is about the truth. I might add who is attacking who. I never ever hear any Americans saying anything bad about the Canadians NEVER!!!!! but frankly the Canadians here do nothing but talk bad about the US. Americans for all their faults (and they are numerous and long) are not like those who hate Americans. Americans are very tolerant of other countries probably because a significant amount don’t know any better. It is the leadership that is at fault but the entire population gets blame. Well if you are using that logic the entire world is at fault.

  6. JuanP on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 7:59 am 

    An American would really have to have some nerve to criticize any other country. The USA is the most violent, agressive, criminal, terrorist nation on Earth. What could you say to anyone from another country other than “I am sorry for what the USA, my terrorist country, has illegally done to yours throughout its history”?

    I am not anti American, I am anti BULLSHIT, and you don’t smell good to me, Davy. You should go for a dip in your spring to clear your mind and wash the BS it is filled with away. You are the one who can’t accept the truth, Davy. I can. I always could, even in preK.

  7. Davy on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 8:18 am 

    Juan, your mental situation has deteriorated and you have turned very negative and mean. You have become exceptionally anti-American and try to justify it by saying you are anti-Bullshit. What a joke. Read your comments Juan. You are a Putin lover and thinks Russia can do no harm. Fock that with a stick. Here I go again. “The US is a tarnish on the history books” Does that feel better Juan? Your focking friends are nearly as bad. You have traded one brainwashing for another. Your idea of the truth is your way or the highway with hate American love Russia.

    Why the fock are you even in this country. At least Mak has the dignity of leaving. It amazes me how people that hate the US so bad in every way are still here. I know your story. Go back to Uruguay with your family. You got a great situation there. Ride the collapse out there and get out of a place causing you depression and hatred.

  8. Mike616 on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 10:53 am 

    What Germany did to Greece, and the rest of the EU, drove it to bankruptcy with Austerity. That killed their economic revival after the recession.

    Sure, China was going to suffer for that.

  9. GregT on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 11:40 am 

    “Greg, buddy, we have more smart people in the US than your small little uptight country has people.”

    Davy, I’ve tried before, but you still don’t seem to get it. I am a human being, just like you are a human being. The big difference between you and I apparently? I don’t subscribe to political indoctrination. If the area of imaginary lines drawn in the sand that I happened to be born into is being controlled by an evil, corrupt, and ruthless group of people, I will be the first to say so, and I will stand up for liberty, justice, and the rights of the people to self determination. I will never support the killing of millions of innocent people for political or monetary gain, and I will be vocal in my opposition.

    If anybody is truly an anti-American here, that would be you. You are allowing this shit to continue by being in support of it. It is the people like you that are allowing the USA to be systematically destroyed. You are not a patriot Davy. I find it really sad that you can’t seem to figure that out.

  10. Davy on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 12:08 pm 

    Greg, spare me your stupid condescending talk. It is so empty and fake. Just ignore me. You guys can’t have friendship and hate us at the same time. You especially fail when you try to rationalize your way out of it. Hate is hate you can’t sugar coat it or hide it in phony speak. You Canadians are a piece of work.

  11. GregT on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 12:20 pm 

    You are either with us, or you are with the terrorists. It really doesn’t get much simpler. You and I have discussed this at length for the better part of two years. The fact that you still label me as an “anti-American” speaks volumes about your indoctrination. Take your blinders off Davy. You are making yourself look really bad.

  12. apneaman on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 12:32 pm 

    Poor widdle Davy, the angry obsessed patriot. 3/4 of his comments are in defense of the propaganda/cartoon version of America and the other 1/4 are spent proclaiming what everyone “needs to do” or “should do” so collapse goes the way Davy thinks best – usually another cartoon. Still the 1%er baby wanting things his way. Double obsession when it comes to Mak. I guess these are normal reactions for an entitled American 1%er who is used to getting his way since infancy. I was always under the assumption that the elite classes, upon reaching adulthood, had developed thick skin and were trained up to be unconcerned with the opinions of the peasant class. Mommy and daddy must be disapointed with Jr’s slumming.

    All the stats I read indicate the the US has the lowest standards of education among all but the lowliest of countries. Subtract all the foreign born brain power, like 3/4 of silicone valley, and there is not much left over.

    Myths of The American Mind: Smartness

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjR3h0RqVG0

  13. apneaman on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 12:46 pm 

    Black Friday 2013 – America vs Canada

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN2DJwxXIKU

    Black Friday in Canada ‘politely’ busy

    http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/11/27/black-friday-in-canada-politely-busy.html

    USA

    Black Friday 2015 walmart, Best buy, target fights crazy lady steals from KID! black friday 2015 USA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HG2MYX4N4s

    Let’s keep pretending every country behaves the same when they don’t.

  14. Davy on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 1:05 pm 

    Folk, ape man spends his days looking for his dopamine fix by cutting other down. I guess it is because he is such a failure without a job or home of his own. He has all kinds of excuses for this but we know better.

    As for Canada what a little shit of a two face country. If you Canadians had hair on your nuts you would make it know at the highest levels you are against what the Americans do. Instead you guys follow the US like a little ally should and talk bad about us behind our back on the back channels of the Internet.

  15. apneaman on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 1:25 pm 

    Davy’s first line of offense is always to attempt the elementary school money/material low blow/my dad is richer than your dad tactic, even though he has absolutely no way of knowing what position anyone is in – what else would you expect from a spoiled American rich kid who still possess a playground mentality? Davy, is there anyone you get angry with on here you have not played that card on? Oh well, I guess it’s not as bad as challenging me to a knife fight like you have others. Temper tantrum violence seems to be the go to solution most of you smart Americans come up with when others will not conform to your beliefs.

    Three killed, nine injured in attack on Colorado abortion clinic

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/28/us-colorado-shooter-idUSKBN0TG27D20151128

  16. GregT on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 1:36 pm 

    “As for Canada what a little shit of a two face country.”

    Your indoctrination is shining through yet again Davy. Canada is a crown corporation owned and controlled by the British Monarchy.

    https://inpursuitofhappiness.wordpress.com/2006/12/02/canada-is-a-corporation-under-uk-queen/

  17. Davy on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 1:37 pm 

    Ape your so predictable. Your dope hit comes from conflict. You have been honest about your mainlining of cocaine so it is clear you have substance abuse issues. Your a chain smoking fool drifting around the Internet picking fights and getting that all important high from it.

    You spend your days telling people they are doomed. You have no desire to offer anything as far as solutions. You want people to suffer and die especially Americans.

    I can’t wait until your ass is overwhelmed by migrants from the lower 48. Americans are going to be all over you Ape Man. You will be a tiny minority in a flood of Americans. I imagine you will not survive that experience.

  18. JuanP on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 1:54 pm 

    Davy, You are a disgrace of a human being. Your country is a terrorist nation. You are an arrogant prick and the board’s bully. What a fucking waste of a brain and an elite education you are!

    The reason my comments are becoming increasingly anti American is because the people governing your country are literally insane, just like you. You are insane, Davy, a deranged, deluded lunatic. Go fuck yourself!

  19. JuanP on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 2:01 pm 

    American driving is at an all time high in America, just like arrogance, ignorance, stupidity, and mental illness. Population is at an all time high in America, too, as well as corruption, debt, poverty, and inequality.

  20. JuanP on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 2:03 pm 

    Davy, You and your family and your friends are sponsors of terrorism. THAT IS THE TRUTH!

  21. apneaman on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 3:04 pm 

    That’s right Davy, I was honest about my severe drug/alcohol abuse from yesteryear. Like friend planty you attempt to injure me with it – futile. Also like planty you conveniently leave out the second half of my story – the part where I clearly stated that I have been clean and sober for the last 19 years. Half truths are the weapons of desperate liars. Any hardcore addict who got out will tell you that there is nothing any man can do to hurt me more than the living hell of being an addict, so flail away Davy. I’ve OD,d a few times on H and been saved, rolled vehicle’s, been in more bloody fights and taken more falls than I can remember, I should have been dead decades ago. I even contracted Hep-C and after some years of sobriety successfully did the chemo to eradicate it. It’s all gravy to me.

  22. Davy on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 3:05 pm 

    Juan, these days you are sounding lame so I am not impressed with your attacks. There was a time when you were a voice of reason then that went dark. That Juan I would listen to but no longer. I think you are dealing with hidden demons within yourself. I have notice in the last 6 months you have changed. Is your life falling apart? Is the depression back and being exhibited as anger and hate. You sound the extremist these days and definitely a board bully yourself. That is definitely in line with an internal rebellion against severe depression.

  23. Davy on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 3:14 pm 

    Ape man are you telling me or the world? Are you proving how tough you are or your humility? Ape, when assholes like us get to our age we all have baggage. Some of us lots of baggage. I am not interested in comparing dicks today. The best thing we can do for others is disengage and wait a few months for the next battle that surely will come. The normal drill is we ignore each other and move on to bigger fish.

  24. JuanP on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 3:25 pm 

    Davy, You are the pathetic bully that needs to grow up here. Me thinks projecting you are. It is your country that is illegally invading, attacking, and destroying other countries, not mine. I have no reason to be biased against the USA. Accept the truth: You are an abusive bully and so is your country. Get help, you need it!

  25. GregT on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 3:37 pm 

    “Juan, these days you are sounding lame so I am not impressed with your attacks. There was a time when you were a voice of reason then that went dark.”

    Juan is still a voice of reason Davy. You are the one that is being unreasonable. None of the commenters that you are calling out are anti-American. They are all anti-BS, and pro-truth. If you aren’t willing to be honest, so be it. You aren’t deluding anyone but yourself.

  26. Davy on Sat, 28th Nov 2015 4:00 pm 

    Folks, its a gang bang. Can’t you focks have a fair fight. Three against one. Two Canadians and one South Merikan. Where the hell is Makster? He is the one that started all this fun. The silly old man will be around soon to make it 4 against one

    Juan, say something new you are sounding like a broken record drunkard.

    Sure Greg, you are so convincing. “Pro-truth and anti-BS.” That is hilarious.

    Why are you guys so upset? Could it be you are not interested in the truth? Could it be your message is one of BS. I am the one being attacked by multiple asswipes. That says something right there. You can’t handle the truth.

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