The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System

Since autumn of 2019, I’ve been bearish on the dollar, meaning I have a longish-term outlook towards a weaker dollar. This view began forming when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in summer 2019, and then the view solidified with a catalyst after an overnight repo rate spike in September 2019 forced the Fed to […]

At current rates of deforestation, civilization will collapse in 20-40 years

Preface.  At current rates of deforestation, forests will be gone in 100-200 years. Long before that, in 20-40 years, the effects will be felt, with a 90% chance of civilization collapse likely. Since it looks like world conventional oil peaked in 2018, I’m putting my money on energy decline as the civilization crasher, but the […]

Solar now ‘cheapest electricity in history’: How much will it matter?

The International Energy Agency (IEA), the Paris-based consortium of 30 countries, has told us in its flagship World Energy Outlook 2020 that solar-produced electricity is now the “cheapest electricity in history.”  That seems like very good news, that is, until the actual expected impact of that fact is examined more closely. For those who are […]

My green home: $90,000 in clean tech upgrades, $20,000 in tax breaks

A few years ago I started writing regularly about electric cars and the batteries that power them—technologies that are helping humanity transition away from reliance on fossil fuels. And as bad news continued to pile up about the harms caused by climate change, I started to think harder about my own carbon footprint. So last […]

Net Energy and ERoEI* in a Mark III Economy

Structure The Mark I economy had only one economic requirement, namely, that each person had to eat one potato per day or die. This was useful to show that one man’s wealth can mean another man’s or many men’s death. The Mark II economy had four or five economic sectors and was useful to demonstrate […]

Disruptive Oil Growth is ‘History,’ Shale Recovery to be ‘Much More Modest,’ Says Yergin

Oil demand is not expected to return to 2019 levels until the end of next year or early 2022, with future growth to be “much more modest” than the 2 million b/d growth rates of the past, according to IHS Markit Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin. The executive, who released his newest book, “The New Map: […]

Klaus Schwab: 2021 should be year of the ‘Great Reset’

The pandemic has reminded us that we cannot aim solely for higher GDP and profits, on the assumption that maximizing these indicators automatically redounds to the benefit of society. A renewed focus on public health, net-zero pledges and the arrival of Stakeholder Capitalism Metrics will ensure that 2021 will be a new ‘Year Zero’.   […]

Will 2021 Be The Year Of Green Energy Stocks?

Looking back, 2020 will be a thick chapter in the history books. This year will be remembered for all kinds of catastrophes, from public health to economic devastation. But it may also be remembered as the turning point for clean energy and the year that changed the world’s trajectory away from certain catastrophic climate change […]

Gail Tverberg: The Year Things Started Going Badly Wrong

Many people thought that COVID-19 would be gone with a short shutdown. They also thought that the world’s economic problems could be cured with a six month “dose” of stimulus. It is increasingly clear that neither of these assumptions is correct. Despite the claims of epidemiologists, our best efforts have never been able to reduce the […]

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