How the Economy Works as It Reaches Energy Limits — An Introduction for Actuaries and Others

Why have long-term interest rates generally fallen since 1981? Why have asset prices risen? Can these trends be expected to continue? The standard evaluation approach by actuaries and economists seems to be to look at past patterns and assume that they will be repeated. The catch is that energy consumption growth plays a hugely important […]

Many signs of peak oil and decline

[ I think the huge debt of major and minor oil and gas companies, falling cash flow, and dimming prospects are a huge waving banner of “Danger Ahead!”  It was expected by those of us following the energy crisis that unconventional oil will not be able to fill in the gap of the decline of […]

Glamping On Wall Street

So, you tried various sites. You hung your hat out on Broad and then moved on to Wall and you are considering Trinity Palace as the next street for your glamping. Some say that one is safer than the other, but you are not quite sure who to believe. It is difficult, these days, to […]

US will be ‘very strong’ for next 15-20 years due to shale boom

The growth of the shale industry will strengthen the U.S. for the next 15 to 20 years, Borealis Chief Executive Mark Garrett told CNBC on Sunday. “We’re very positive on the U.S. because the shale oil, the shale gas, we think that the ethane pricing, and the ethane through to polyethylene — and you could […]

Why is your teenage sibling trying to kill you?

In the process of spring cleaning I happened across a cardboard binder with a yellowing, handwritten sticky label reading “An Older View Regarding Inalienable Rights.” Inside was a xerox copy of a 69-page document dated January 9, 1979 from an administrative proceeding before the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC-SECY-78–560) in the matter of the petition […]

Energy 2040: Oil, Gas Will Still Be In High Demand

The world’s energy business—on both the supply and demand sides—will change drastically by 2040 but oil and gas will continue to be dominant energy sources even as renewables proliferate. The big loser will be coal, although demand for the rock that burns continues to soar among Asia’s rapidly growing economies. Those were among the points […]

Trump Has Options If Oil Market Panics About Iran

Oil markets have so far reacted to President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal without either enthusiasm or panic — without even much apparent interest. There are many good reasons for this, but also many reasons to think oil markets’ complacency could change. Fortunately, the Obama-era sanctions that Trump has moved […]

America’s ‘Cadillac Desert’: Is there a substitute for fresh water?

Thirty years after Marc Reisner penned Cadillac Desert: The American West and Its Disappearing Water his prophesy is being fulfilled. As the chalky rings which mark previous higher water levels around Colorado River reservoirs grow ever wider, Grist reports that major disputes are now afoot over the remaining water supply. Modern economists have long told […]

Bank of America says oil could surge back to $100

Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s commodity strategists see a risk that Brent crude oil returns to $100 per barrel by next year. Brent last touched that level in September 2014, as oil prices descended into their worst crash in a generation. “In short, the micro drivers of the oil market remain positive, as long as […]

Crude Oil Price Forecast: $100 per barrel by 2019

It was a busy week for oil traders, with prices moving in a $4.25 range of $71.89 per barrel down to $67.63 per barrel as the market digested the news that U.S. President Donald Trump decided to unilaterally pull out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimplement economic sanctions. The exchange of airstrikes between Iranian-backed […]

New Rare Earth Deposits: A Non-Solution For A Non-Problem

  Above: the report on the “Financial Post” of April 13, 2018. The study that the report describes is not just a bad paper, but something highlighting the shortcomings of our whole society in understanding and managing mineral depletion. Any report on mineral availability that starts with “a semi-infinite deposit” should be taken with great […]

Oil, $ Surge= Wage, Farm Crisis

The world economy is in turmoil as crude touches a high (since 2014) in the wake of US rejection of the Iran nuclear deal. The Rupee is on a roll to touch one of the lowest marks against a surging dollar, a phenomenon that occurs for the eleventh time since 1983. Undeniably, inflation is set […]

How Rising Oil Prices Will Affect the US

Four of the past five recessions—1973, 1980, 1990, and 2008—were preceded by a sharp increase in the price of oil. Since last summer, the Brent benchmark oil price has soared by about 50%, to nearly $78 per barrel. More increases could be coming. Additional sanctions on Iran imposed by the Trump administration will limit that […]

Charting the International Roadmap to a Demonstration Fusion Power Plant

More than 60 top fusion scientists and engineers from around the world gathered at the 5th IAEA DEMO Programme Workshop in Daejeon, South Korea, from 7 to 10 May, to discuss critical issues and next steps on the road to the realization of fusion energy. While science and technology issues for fusion power are broadly […]

Why the Oil Spike Won’t Last

Ed Morse, Citigroup’s global head of commodity research, predicted the 2014 oil bust and has been consistently right on the direction of prices since then. This week, oil prices shot higher on expectations—quickly proven true—that President Donald Trump would exit the nuclear deal with Iran, hampering that country’s ability to export oil. West Texas Intermediate […]

The Fisherman and the Farmer – A Tale About Overexploitation

Ilaria Perissi and Nicola Calisi playing the fisherman and his wife in a theatrical piece shown in Florence in 2017. The piece was based on the story told below (text by Ugo Bardi). The origin of this story is told here. Once upon a time, a fisherman who lived on the shore of the lake […]

What is peak oil? And what will happen to the industry if we reach it?

For much of the last century, observers of the oil industry have debated when or if we might reach so-called peak oil — the point when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is achieved. Reasons for this peak have changed over the years, from production driven by supply, to production driven by demand. Most recently, […]

Israel launched a barrage of airstrikes on 50 Iranian targets in Syria — a massive escalation that could lead to all-out war

Israel launched dozens of strikes on Syria in a massive retaliation on Iran. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said fighter jets took down “dozens” of Iranian military targets. IDF claimed its airstrikes hit Iranian intelligence facilities, logistic headquarters, observation posts, weapon storage facilities, and a vehicle used to launch rockets into Israeli territory. The strikes […]

Here’s What Oil at $70 Means for the World Economy

Rising oil prices are a double-edged sword for the world economy. With the price of crude up about 18 percent this year and now trading at the highest since 2014, exporters of the fuel get to enjoy a windfall while consuming nations get hurt. Much ultimately depends on the reason why prices are pushing higher. […]

It’s No Wonder Iranians Hate America

“Everyone wants to go to Baghdad. Real men want to go to Tehran.” So a senior British official was quoted as saying to Newsweek in 2002, witnessing the competitive bellicosity in the Bush administration’s runup to the war in Iraq. This week President Donald Trump asserted his claim to be a real man as he […]

Shale Skeptic Forecasts Imminent Demise for Permian and Eagle Ford

The geologist who earned the wrath of shale drillers a decade ago with forecasts that natural gas was about to run out is now warning that the Permian Basin has just seven years of proven oil reserves left. Arthur Berman, a former Amoco scientist who now works as an industry consultant near Houston, said the […]

Buyers Seek US Waivers to Buy Iranian Oil Amid New Sanctions

South Korea said on Wednesday it would seek U.S. exemptions to buy Iranian oil, a path many big oil consumers are likely to follow in the wake of new U.S. sanctions on Tehran, which will tighten world oil markets and push up prices. Iran is the third-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum […]

Trump “Committed To Regime Change” In Iran: Giuliani

President Donald Trump is committed to regime change in Iran, said Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s newest controversial attorney (although perhaps not for long) and longtime informal advisor. Speaking to reporters after a Saturday keynote to the Iran Freedom Convention for Democracy and Human Rights in Washington, Giuliani said “We got a president who is tough, who does not […]

Ready to pay more at the pump?

Gasoline prices in Fresno already increased beyond $4 per gallon this week at some places in town. And gas prices are projected to rise even more going into the summer in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. A year ago, the national average for was $2.34 for […]

Oil Is Back

In 45 years, the world has gone from energy shortage and fears of “Peak Oil” to an energy glut where it seems the world is drowning in oil and floating on a cloud of natural gas at the same time. Yet that may not last. My models predict a long-term rise in energy demand and […]

OPEC In No Hurry To Decide If Extra Oil Needed To Offset Iran

OPEC is in no hurry to decide whether to pump more oil to make up for an expected drop in exports from Iran after the imposition of new U.S. sanctions, four sources familiar with the issue said, saying any loss in supply would take time. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has a deal […]

Tree sitters rally against natural gas pipelines

Dozens of people joined Theresa “Red” Terry and her daughter “Minor” Terry for a solidarity rally to protest against the construction of the Mountain Valley and Atlantic Coast pipelines on the Downtown Mall on Monday afternoon. The rally was part of a movement by progressive community organizations demanding Governor Ralph Northam keep his promises to […]

Iraq, BP sign Kirkuk oilfield development contract

Iraq’s state-run North Oil Company signed an agreement with BP on Monday to triple output from the Kirkuk fields in the north of the country, Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi said. FILE PHOTO: The logo of BP is seen at a petrol station in Kloten, Switzerland October 3, 2017. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo The agreement was signed […]

How The World Reacted To Trump’s Withdrawal From The Iran Nuclear Deal

One day after Trump announced he will withdraw the US from Obama’s landmark 2015 deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program while reinstating the “harshest of sanctions” on the Persian Gulf country, and giving US allies 180 days to extricate themselves from Iranian oil deals as it seeks to economically isolate and curb oil exports from […]

Trump decides to exit nuclear accord with Iran

President Donald Trump plans to follow through on his campaign threat to pull out of the landmark nuclear accord with Iran, according to two people familiar with his thinking, dealing a profound blow to U.S. allies and potentially deepening the president’s isolation on the world stage. Trump’s decision means Iran’s government must now decide whether […]

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