Venezuela is suffering the deepest economic crisis in its history with output expected to contract 9.1 percent this year, Barclays Plc said Friday.
The economic contraction will likely reach 16.5 percent between 2014 and 2016, while inflation over that period will exceed 1,000 percent, Barclays wrote in a note to clients.
“It is impossible to understand why the government is not reacting to this reality, why it has not taken measures to alleviate the economic distortions that are destroying the real income of Venezuelans,” Barclays said.
President Nicolas Maduro will not likely announce any changes in economic policy before congressional elections Dec. 6, the bank said. With support for the ruling Socialist party at around 19 percent, the country is politically divided as it also battles low prices for oil, which accounts for 95 percent government export revenue.
“A weak president who will have lost an election in the middle of a very strong economic crisis will not be able to take any fiscal measures,” Barclays said. “The probability of a political transition in Venezuela seems to be much higher than what the market has been pricing.”
Instead of taking fiscal measures, the government is selling all its liquid assets to maintain an “extremely inefficient” exchange rate system and pay the external debt, Barclays said, adding that it would likely have enough money to pay its foreign debt at least through the first quarter of next year with a moderate increase in oil prices and further cut in imports.
“All the main political actors appear to be thinking only of the near term, and there is no clarity about what they will do after the elections, leaving a very uncertain scenario for 2016,” the bank said.
makati1 on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 10:51 am
“Venezuela Economic Crisis to Only Get Worse”
should read:
“American Economic Crisis to Only Get Worse”
That would carry more truth. LOL
BobInget on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 11:16 am
GS, and other pumpers are calling for $20
oil. If oil prices fall below $44 for any extended time South America will destabilize allah the Middle East.
Perhaps, American strategists believe a Venezuela in chaos will somehow shift alliances back toward USA. I believe the reverse will be the case.
China has been pouring funding into Venezuela for almost a decade. Doubtless, China won’t give up now.
Now that Saudi Arabia has all but abdicated
its role as reserve or emergency fuel tank,
Russia and China following ‘Big Oil’s’ 1930’s
model of foreign oil colonialism, has already
nailed down not the second largest reserves in the world but as KSA runs down, the largest. By the time (2025) Venezuela’s Orinoco gets fully operational, V could easily produce ten to twelve million barrels p/d. With some spare capacity. We are talking Alberta’s oil sands, times two.
Obviously, crude below $80 or whatever in yuan currency and consumer goods. Is delaying Communist China’s ‘recovery’.
Have no doubts, Venezuela at this time, the most valuable chip on the world’s currency crap table. With China and Russia at the helm oil prices and currency used will no longer be dictated by Washington.
What use are ‘sanctions’ when Russia or Iran needn’t bother with European banks?
Short sighted traders have set us up for entirely predictable shortages. With so many projects outright cancelled or delayed, any quick comeback is impossible.
JuanP on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 11:29 am
Bob, Your comparing South America to the Middle East shows a lot of ignorance. If oil prices drop below $44 and stay there for a while, the whole world will crash, not just South America. Do you think North America would fare any better? PLEASE!
JuanP on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 11:41 am
I have been saying since forever that Venezuela is a basket case and has always been a basket case. One of my wife’s uncles, an economist, worked there as a presidential economic adviser for over 20 years and left the country around 1990 because he could see that the country was facing inevitable economic, social, and political collapse. That was long before Chavez or Maduro were around. He hated leaving, he loved Venezuela and had intended to live his whole life and die there, but realized that would not be possible.
Americans and the banksters love to blame Chavez and Maduro for Venezuela’s problems, but Venezuela’s problems run much deeper. Venezuela has been South America’s most corrupt country since long before I was born. It is probably one of the most corrupted societies on the planet. Venezuelans in general are arrogant, selfish, and corrupt. Things there can only get worse.
Jess Miller on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 3:47 pm
Who wrote this article?
CITGO (Venezuelan owned and operated company) just purchased the Valero Refinery in Aruba, Dutch Antilles.
Venezuela is also planning to open 56,000 gas stations in China, has several refineries under construction in Brazil, Dominican Republic and Cuba.
If Venezuela is in a DEEP economic crisis, where all that money comes from?
Jose Morón-Borjas on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 5:15 pm
Mr. Miller: Where did you read all those lies? Our governement has never said anything that is even close to what you say. Please, stay with real facts.
Red Flowers on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 6:52 pm
Karl Marx strikes again. When is the world going to learn that this ridiculous, outdated utopia fantasy (socialism) is an economic disaster? I mean, listen to the Pope’s anti-capitalist babble while he ignores the dire problems in places like Cuba and Venezuela. This time around the Marxists have managed to bankrupt an oil country that should be as rich as Saudi Arabia by now, and have traded American imperialism (Venezuela’s only reliable source of steady cash) for shifty Chinese bankers with dubious, self-serving intentions. The sad thing is that the Chavistas will never relinquish power without horrific violence.
Plantagenet on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 7:10 pm
Maduro, socialism and the oil glut are proving to be a bad combination for Venezuela.
BobInget on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 7:33 pm
Yes indeed, H. Chavez set a bad example
by sharing oil revenue with the Venezuelan
people. It’s just too bad he was more influenced by F. Castro then Norwegian
economics.
Political influence of Chinese/ Venezuelan
partnering:
Many Central American and Caribbean nations have become overly dependent on
deeply discounted Venezuelan oil that’s feeding corruption, single party rule,
and deepening economic divides.
Juan, for years I’ve been saying South and Central Americans will never become a military or so called ‘terrorist’ threat to N. Americans.
Splitting my time between Nicaragua and Costa Rica wintering in C. America living in barrios not tourist hotels
Wherever I travel today, Chinese economic influence is as palpable as the number of new babies.
apneaman on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 7:54 pm
Red Flowers, crumbling infrastructure, homelessness, bankrupt cities and counties…..that American capitalism is really something to brag about eh? You’re like the guy who hangs out with junkies on the wrong side of the tracks so he can feel better about himself by comparison. Why not bring up the standard of living at those socialist scandinavian countries? Don’t see many of them rushing to migrate to the USA now do ya? Next year you will be bragging how you da bomb next to those low lifes in Bangladesh. My my how we have lowered the bar in our desperation to cling. Your grandaddy’s capitalism and America are long gone and ain’t never coming back. You live in an ever worsening oligarchy, just like most people in the world.
“Nearly 47 million Americans were living in poverty last year, a percentage that has remained largely unchanged, according to a census report out Wednesday.”
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2015/0917/Why-America-s-poverty-rate-has-persisted
Boat on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 10:29 pm
apeman,
Just politics, bringing in workers by the millions when there are to many workers already.
If we jailed those who hired illegals you would see 11 million people disappear. Last I read illegal and legal residents equaled 60 million of US population. These residents were foreign born at birth. A lot of your poverty stats would disappear with them.
Ira on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 10:47 pm
It’s incredible to read some of these posts, totally denying that Chavismo destroyed Venezuela, and looking for every excuse in the book to claim that it’s all simply a media war against VZ.
The country is effed big time, thanks only, to Chavismo.
And oh:
Been there 2 dozen times since 1988 (I swear). Even did marketing work for one of their major Rum distillers, Santa Teresa, and I can tell you in no uncertain terms:
If you’re such a fan of Chavismo, go MOVE to this toilet of a country.
Now a toilet of a country, thanks to Chavismo.
makati1 on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 10:54 pm
Ap, some cannot accept reality when it affects them personally. At least you have sen behind the MSM Iron Curtain.
The US has to constantly make other countries look bad because it keeps the sheeple from seeing the corruption rampant in America these days. America is the huge rotten apple in the barrel. Not other countries.
Red Flowers on Sat, 26th Sep 2015 11:33 pm
Can’t understand why millions are trying to get into North America while Venezuelans are leaving en masse, then. Thought that incredible socialism was going to fix everything. The Nordic countries lefties always mention proudly did not destroy their market economy (capitalism), unlike the Chavista idiots, so they didn’t run out of other people’s money. Poverty level in the US for a family of 5 is around $28,410 a year. That translates to 180,404.50 a year of the crappy bolivars depending on what the currency conversion is doing in its rapid slide on a given day. Minimum wage in Venezuela is around $20 a month now according to Bloomberg, so unless you have a better job, are a chavista government crook, or maybe Chavez’s daughter whom they say is worth 4.2 billion dollars, you know real poverty.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-06/monthly-salary-of-20-shows-why-venezuelans-wait-in-food-lines
The 47 million “poor” people in the US are way,way ahead of the 30 million Venezuelans out looking for toilet paper and milk every day while the Marxist idiots blame everybody but themselves for the mess and create scapegoats like Colombian immigrants. Our supermarkets are full, the hospitals have medicine (Venezuelans are dying due to lack of it), and there is plenty of toilet paper to throw at people. In a nation of 300 million people (10 times Venezuela), our inflation is running under 1% a year, per capita annual household income is 51,000+, and we have 15,000 murders yearly to Venezuela’s 25,000. Okay, we are not perfect, but if you had to be poor somewhere, where would you chose? If the capitalist machine does not buy the oil, Venezuelans don’t eat, do they? Don’t bite the hand that feeds you. Just ask Castro, who’s now kissing Obama’s butt to get tourist $$$ LOL!
Boat on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 12:48 am
Red Flowers,
No use trying common sense and facts with these anti Americans. They just hate for hate’s sake.
Red Flowers on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 1:07 am
I guess you’re right but it is comical how they deny reality. There is no more Iron Curtain in the information age. You can’t hide either your screw-ups or your massacres.
MrNoItAll on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 1:32 am
Boat, it is strange to find myself agreeing with you for a change. Don’t forget about the millions if not billions of impoverished, repressed, abused and completely disenfranchised individuals in the world who feel a compelling need to direct their hatred and anger at something, anything! America and Americans make the perfect target. It’s that way in all walks of life. If you’re the biggest, the badest and the best, then people are going to project their insecurities and animosities onto you, and that’s just the way it is. Trust me, I know… 🙂
GregT on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 2:01 am
NWR?,
Or somebody else has taken control of your avatar? Or, have you devolved into an ugly American? I seriously hope not. I’ve always had a great deal of respect for you. If it is the same NWR, you seriously need to give your head a shake.
apneaman on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 3:20 am
Greg they can’t shake the propaganda no matter what. Remember it’s rooted in exceptionalism from the founding. It’s religious and only recently been couched in secular terms. Starting in kindergarten they make them SWEAR allegiance to a symbol. That sticks for life. Even at this point, after falling so far in the last four decades we hear claims of the “best”. Magical thinking and clinging to a mythological golden age is all that’s left. Some states are even rewriting their history books to fit this. Guarantee you it’s going to get louder and uglier. Even the term, Anti American is straight out of a government propaganda think tank.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee_on_Public_Information
makati1 on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 5:17 am
GregT & Ap, you read my mind. Some deny anything that feels uncomfortable. Even reality. Maybe especially reality. Too bad. Their loss.
Davy on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 7:21 am
You anti-Americans are so fun to listen too. You can’t take reality. You have to have blood. You have to have the evil one to focus all you obsessive hate and resentment on. You are smart guys but a whole lot of your argument get lost in your petty anti-American agenda.
Most of you are not Americans and really don’t know American life even though you think you do for whatever reason. The Canadians love to tell me “well I lived there” or “I have relatives there” and or I travelled there once. I tolerate most of you because some of you are reasonable and responsible with some balance on the subject.
If you are partially fair and balanced I tolerate the anti-Americansim. One must acknowledge “it goes with the territory” being a country with a big ugly footprint. Other like the asswipe living in Manilla is completely obnoxious and needs to be considered mentally ill. We must confront the ugly American dream but when it is done like the anti-Americans do it is also ugly.
I find Canadians have some kind of complex. Is it the little brother envy? A small insignificant country that is no more than a big American state wants to feel important. They think Canadian society is OK and for the most part the ugly society to the south is the real deal evil one. I loved Canada before I came to the board now I find it a country full of uptight assholes that think their shit don’t stink. Why is America full of Canadians? Some Canadians must like what we have.
I have been on this board and admitted I am an American and we are a degenerate race. Don’t you think I see the barely human looking people in Walmart? I know firsthand all the ugliness. But you know what these barely human’s in Walmart are many time nice people that would give the shirt off their back. You anti-Americans need to admit you are part of the greater degenerate race that is not much better than the ugly Americans. Especially our obnoxious little brother to the north.
JuanP on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 7:35 am
Red, Boat, and Ira, Please point out to me the part where I said that Chavez and Maduro are good for Venezuela. I am positive that I NEVER said that because I don’t believe that. All I said is that they are not solely responsible for Venezuela’s mess. Venezuela was a a fucked up mess for decades before they came to the scene. Do you get it now?
But, hey, if it makes it easier for you to keep on believing in all the lies and crap you believe and justify your miserable lives, then blame them for all of Venezuela’s problems. By all means! It’s not like I give a fuck what you morons think. Whatever rocks your boat is fine by me. I am responsible for my thoughts and actions , not other people’s.
Your reading comprehension skills leave a lot to be desired. Can’t fix stupid!
Contrerados on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 8:18 am
Six decades of poor management, corrupted pro-CIA cliques calling themselves “parties”, and a carefully implemented US policy of spreading poverty, ignorance, drug smuggling gangs, and a sickening US-dependence have created this monstruous deformity of a country called Venezuela (and many others in the region follow). The worst enemy the US, Wall Street, the CIA or any other hungry rat is not socialism or communism–it’s a true and genuine nationalist awakening that could surge from the Rio Grande and end up in Tierra del Fuego. No US government stand to see a powerful Latin America whose people adhere themselves to their land–not politicians–and work hard to make it truly prosperous and strong. The worst thing the USA could cope with is seeing progressive, prosperous societies ridding themselves off leftist rats and pseudo-right-wing swines pretending to be the political nemesis of today’s cliques of Trostkyist Latin mobs. Sure they brought in Pinochet to massacre communists in Chile; Hugo Banzer in Bolivia, Stroessner in Paraguay, and so forth…But what after? Just bring in some brutal ogre in uniform to curb communism and keep the Soviets off…just until the Berlin Wall falls. Do you think the USA feared the USSR by getting rid of Castro? No, they thought well: leave him poor and an outcast to scare others in Latin America. Thus, the USA is always behind the surge and degradation of such leftists regimes precisely to deplete those nations morally and economically so that it can find them fertile to re-consruct once again a silly puppet right-wing regime there.
China? China, not Venezuela, is utilizing PDVSA’s name (as accorded with Maduro) to open up those gas stations in China and Aruba…That’s the $20B deal: suck up oil at lower-than-the-market prices in exchange for cash that quickly evaporates in buying people and keep itself afloat just until another farce of elections keeps PSUV in power thanks to happily filled stomachs. China is a powerful, opportunistic parasite that preys upon the political misfortunes of naturally-rich countries like Venezuela–it’s a USA with slanted eyes (no offense). The problem will always be ignorance in the population and the lack of political will and conscience to say no to USA and China and begin an inclement purge in Venezuela to rid it fromm all the drug gangs and jingoist scums like Capriles, Lopez, Maduro, Diosdado Cabello and Adan Chavez. Mark my words– a truly nationalist Latin America si what the USA does not want to see. Democracy and human rights?? Sure, find them in Ferguson, Guantanamo, Iraq and why not? ISIS…That’s what American democracy means, so spare me the BS!!
Davy on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 8:47 am
Contrerados “BS” friend. While a whole lot of what you said is true you show little balance and realism. You are an ugly Anti-American commenting on the ugly Americans. That puts you in the same rat hole and a chump. You guys act like your shit don’t stink. The whole narrative of it’s America’s fault shows just how pathetic you all are in your own corruption and dirty dealings. I admit the US is the number one problem in the world but only because the US has the biggest foot print. Don’t try to push off all your own failings onto the US as the only culprit in a regions that stinks also.
makati1 on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 8:54 am
Right on, Contrerados!
Red Flowers on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 10:51 am
Guess there is no way around the inferiority complex and racial hatred inbred by European colonialism and the desire for revenge. Mix in a little Marxist propaganda insanity and mental diarrhea and you have Pol Pot.
Boat on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 11:41 am
Contrerados,
The problem will always be ignorance in the population and the lack of political will and conscience to say no to USA and China and begin an inclement purge in Venezuela to rid it fromm all the drug gangs and jingoist scums like Capriles, Lopez, Maduro, Diosdado Cabello and Adan Chavez
Any problems in any country is the lack of educated people taking responsibility for itself and their decisions. Including the US. Don’t blame others, educate your people.
MrNoItAll on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 1:02 pm
GregT — It’s me. Don’t worry. Just joking around. That was after a few shots of Captain Morgan’s Spice rum last night, so I’m not accountable for my failed attempt at humor.
Raul Jr on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 2:58 pm
Well all these narco crooks traitors robbed all the money and now they are broke but want to continue sucking the tit the chinese have given them a bunch of cash backed up with cheap oil they wont be able to deliver cuz pdvsa is in shambles and everyday produces less
Davy on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 3:15 pm
I like to remind the Sinophiles what you just said Raul from time to time. China has no way to enforce its contract with other sovereigns outside its territorial boarders. It has zero ability to land troops in Venezuela and collect its bills. If the government changes there China may see their tankers come home empty.
apneaman on Sun, 27th Sep 2015 4:40 pm
Davy Who gives a shit about your pathetic psychoanalytical attempts. Why would you know anything about Canada? Came for a visit once, drank some Molsens and read the CIA world factbook Canada page? You should stick to pretending you are an expert on just the countries you have bombed or intervened or backed a coup in. Oh that’s why Americans are such experts on so many countries. Need to know a little background for the justifications. All you little empire babies talk as if you are a Phd expert on dozens of countries – all this from reading a handful of Zerohedge articles from some Mises institute disciple-priest. No matter how disproportionate your government’s crimes are, you always come back to “the other kids did bad things too” defense. That’s right – bad people everywhere. The thing is there is only one superpower spending at least 1.5 trillion a year on global tyranny, including at home. How can anyone tell what proportion of those countries problems are of their own making or the fault of the US? You can’t, but planning and funding coups, coaching and arming puppet dictators and training death squads at the school of the Americas make it irrelevant. You laid the groundwork for the worst possible conditions in those countries for the masses. The only concern was to keep the goodies flowing There is a playbook – been doing it for a long time in many places and tens of millions of powerless everyday citizens have died and more have suffered while the copper and oil and other goodies flowed back to empire home base and y’all got fat and went to the movies. And now you want to throw stones? Fuck you Davy. Talk about defending the indefensible. Other empires, after the conquest stage, set up universal laws for the conquered and offered citizenship and rights and protections. America is an empire of bases and puppet dictators and economic banker hit men and cares nothing for what happen to them, but needs to pretend otherwise at home. This is why you suffer such cognitive dissonance. You want to be an empire, but not use the word and you want to be loved and thanked all at the same time. This is why you hate them for fighting back – think of them as ungrateful children. It’s also why you can’t stand someone like me pointing it out. That’s why you cling to that government invented word anti-American. Y’all would not need to stuff your faces with anti depressants and anti anxiety meds so much if you just took the view of my Viking ancestors or the Mongols or Assyrians, etc and stopped telling self righteous stories to justify it. They just said we take it because we can. I guess this is just the way it works in a highly complex world. The feel good myths get more complex as well. What you see is what you get Davy. The brutality abroad is coming home and combine it with the nation’s “Black Friday” sale behaviour and there ain’t going to be any kumbaya local hand holding during the fall. The only thing going local is the conquest expansionists American mindset. It is what you have done since day one right? You’re expansionists plain and simple.
Contrerados on Mon, 28th Sep 2015 3:45 pm
The only ‘shit’ in this continent is that plague of red-necks who stole the land from the Indians, and still have the audacity to speak of democracy…Let me tell you something about democracy and all that ‘shit’ you think everyone believes in: when you used it, Arbenz won in Guatemala and Allende in Chile (not that you know them anyway…). What did your glorious bastion of democracy and human righst do? What did that ‘Home of the Braves’ issue?? Coup, assassination and installation of so called ‘right’wing’ regimes. And even when some of them began to actually do something good for their countries, you again became alarmed, raised the BS flag of ‘human rights’ violation (forgetting your own hallmark of shame in Abu Ghreib and Guantanamo), and toppled them. When your own ‘shit’ democracy doesn’t work the way YOU want, but how it SHOULD be, you turn against it. So much to your hipocrisy and obvious stupidity…Anti-American or not, fact of the matter is the USA IS the ONE and ONLY shit guilty of EVERYTHING. No one is born educated, much less a slave! And had it not been for your assiduous CIA agents, maybe Latin America would have educated its people and rid them of your culture of Cheerios-McDonalds’-Hollywood ninnies. And by the way, speaking of education (or in your case, a terrible lack of) why don’t you first educate your youth to stop consuming drugs so that your DEA (Drug EASING Agency) quits recruting gangs in Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico to sell them and foment drug-related violence to destabilize the region? Why don’t you educate your murderous stupid policemen to stop shooting Blacks as though they were sitting ducks? Why don’t you educate your cheap breed of poor white trash KKK red neck neo-Nazis to stop shootng people in churches?? And above all, why don’t you teach your right honourable rats in Congress that invading other people’s countries and installing terrorist regimes like ISIS and the Taliban is sheer hypocrisy and counterproductive in spite of initial material gains?? Of course, the hypocrite and the fool don’t know they’re one until they fall in their own trap.