Page added on March 7, 2011
Nine billion, that is a figure I heard over and over at the Commodity Classic meeting in Tampa, Florida last week. It is the estimate of the world’s population by the year 2050. Of course all those people are going to want to eat, and most will want to wear clothes and drive cars. Where is all that food, fiber, and fuel going to come from? The assumption is that most of it will be produced by the United States. In order for this to happen, US agriculture will need to continue to increase production. This focus on increasing production is the goal of many of the nation’s largest agricultural companies. These firms are investing billions of dollars in research and development to find ways to produce more food.
As I walked the massive trade show at Classic, everywhere I turned were signs that spoke of innovation, new technology, and increased production. Numerous company executives that I spoke with talked about how optimistic they are about the future of agriculture. One even called it a new golden age for farmers. While some of this euphoria is being driven by high commodity prices, there is, at the core of this optimism, a belief that world food demand will remain strong and provide a solid underpinning to a vibrant ag economy.
The breadth of technological innovation under development is mindboggling — from fungicides that not only kill a fungus but repair the damage that was done, to seed traits that not only repel insects and diseases but help a plant withstand extremes like cold, heat, and drought. John Deere has embarked on a program to bring incredible sophistication to control and communication among farm machinery. The next decade will see a significant change in the way we farm.
In addition, much of this innovation will require fewer resources than we need today. Spray programs will use ounces per acre rather than gallons. Smart machines will use less energy, and smart chemicals will have a much lower environmental impact. Farmers will be able to increase their productivity without increasing land use and with much less environmental impact. All of this wonderful innovation will only take place if two things happen.
First, there must be profit. Farmers will not invest and companies will not invent if there is not a financial incentive. There has been a fair amount of griping lately about high commodity prices and how farmers are getting rich. Farming has been a capital intensive business for decades, and the future will only see that increasing. Farmers take big risks in anticipation of a big reward. Farmers, regardless of their size, must have the financial incentive to take that risk and make the investments that keep them competitive.
Second, farmers need to be able to farm with a minimum of restrictions, regulations, and encumbrances. Does this mean producers have carte blanche to do whatever they want? NO. But the regulations must be based on sound science and best practice standards. There are forces, both inside and outside of government, who want to heavily regulate agriculture. In many cases this is not based on a solution to a real problem, but rather is part of an overall agenda to limit modern farming. In order for farmers to feed a world that is demanding more and higher quality food, they must be allowed to adopt new technology without onerous controls.
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas of Oklahoma, told the story at Classic about a recent coffee shop meeting he had. He asked the farmers that gathered “What can we in Washington do to help agriculture?” The answer came with characteristic Oklahoma candor and color, “Just get the hell out of our way.” Let’s hope the folks inside the beltway begin to take that advice.
4 Comments on "US Food Producers: “Just Get Out of My Way”"
Cabra1080 on Tue, 8th Mar 2011 1:29 am
Where will the energy come from to run this huge pie-in-the sky agribusiness? Or the water to irrigate it? How profitable will farms be when diesel hits $5 a gallon then $10 a gallon then is no longer available at any price? Where will the huge inputs of electricity and natural gas come from to make the chemical fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides? All these fossil inputs, the potassium, the natural gas, even the water from aquifers, it’s all running out and running out for good. Wonder who is thinking about THAT? Somehow, I see more donkeys and mules in the future, not high tech tractors and combines…
Cabra1080 on Tue, 8th Mar 2011 1:33 am
Nine billion in 2050? Sorry, I think it will be closer to one billion…
Norm on Tue, 8th Mar 2011 2:56 am
Bunch of techno-babble, the mentality is to promote genetically altered foods etc etc while simultaneously bashing the government and its regulations. Looks like the author is very right leaning, probably a Monsanto shareholder and a Republican. Its a fig-leaf article, trying to promote techno-solution visions. In actuality the Bush Admin in collaboration with Monsanto, has been suing honest farmers and putting them out of business by either bankrupting them or forcing them to use genetically altered soybeans, etc etc. Well studied in DVD called FOOD INC.
After all the destruction of the USA economy, due to dismantling of Glass-Steagal act, be suspicious of an author that does knee-jerk, large-scale bashing of the need for government regulations.
James on Tue, 8th Mar 2011 10:29 am
LMAO, where is the U.S. going to get all the gasoline, diesel, fertilizer, and pesticides to grow all of this food to feed the World. The U.S. thinks TECHNOLOGY will save the day. Most TECHNOLOGY runs on energy produced by OIL. The U.S. has got to get out of this mindset that it has all the answers to the Worlds problems. I don’t see the rest of the World boasting that they can solve all of the Worlds problems, they just live one day at a time. Wheres, the U.S. is always fighting to keep being No.1, the Best, the Worlds Savior, Etc. China has already beaten us on the financial scene and will soon be the next military might of the World. They keep wanting our children to be the best students, be the best in math and science. Not everyone is cut out to be the BEST. Why can’t we just relax an be good at a few things? Let our kids be kids. I know that me and my family are going to just be good at living our lives and not be competitive just to keep the Elites happy.