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Page added on November 16, 2018
Upset by Trump’s Iran waivers, Saudis push for deep oil output cut
When U.S. President Donald Trump asked Saudi Arabia this summer to raise oil production to compensate for lower crude exports from Iran, Riyadh swiftly told Washington it would do so.
But Saudi Arabia did not receive advance warning when Trump made a U-turn by offering generous waivers that are keeping more Iranian crude in the market instead of driving exports from Riyadh’s arch-rival down to zero, OPEC and industry sources say.Angered by the U.S. move that has raised worries about over supply, Saudi Arabia is now considering cutting output with OPEC and its allies by about 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) or 1.5 percent of global supply, sources told Reuters this week.
“The Saudis are very angry at Trump. They don’t trust him any more and feel very strongly about a cut. They had no heads-up about the waivers,” said one senior source briefed on Saudi energy policies.
Washington has said the waivers are a temporary concession to allies that imported Iranian crude and might have struggled to find other supplies quickly when U.S. sanctions were imposed on Nov. 4.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Nov. 5 that cutting Iranian exports “to zero immediately” would have shocked the market. “I don’t want to lift oil prices,” he said.
A U.S. source with knowledge of the matter said: “The Saudis were going to be angry either way with the waivers, pre-briefed or even after the announcement.”
A U.S. State Department official said: “We don’t discuss diplomatic communications.”
The U.S. shift toward offering waivers adds to tension between the United States and Saudi Arabia, as Washington pushes for Riyadh to shed full light on the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Turkey.
“The Saudis feel they were completely snookered by Trump. They did everything to raise supplies assuming Washington would push for very harsh Iranian sanctions. And they didn’t get any heads up from the U.S. that Iran will get softer sanctions,” said a second source briefed on Saudi oil thinking.
Saudi energy ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Since the summer, Riyadh has led the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers to hike supplies by over 1 million bpd to keep a lid on prices as U.S. sanctions were imposed.
Brent oil had surged above $86 a barrel in October on tight supply worries, but prices have since slid to $66 on concerns about oversupply.
UNEXPECTED WAIVERS
Trump had wanted lower oil prices before the U.S. midterm elections earlier this month. Washington gave waivers in November to eight buyers to purchase Iranian oil for 180 days. This was more waivers than were initially expected.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a key Trump administration ally, wants prices at $80 or more for his economic reforms, sources familiar with Saudi thinking say.
“The waivers were totally unexpected, especially after calls to raise output. A few people are upset,” said a senior Gulf oil source familiar with the discussions among OPEC and its allies on output policy.
While the United States set a time limit for the waivers, it did not tell the eight recipients how much oil they could buy and has not eased payment restrictions, complicating purchases.
Iran’s oil exports are expected to drop sharply to about 1 million bpd in November from a peak of 2.8 million bpd earlier this year. Although output is expected to recover from December thanks to waivers, it is still not clear by how much.
Riyadh’s concern is to avoid the kind of oversupply in the market that led to a price collapse in 2014 to below $30.
But the lack of clarity about the level of Iran’s supplies makes it tough for Saudi Arabia to work out appropriate production levels, especially after Russia raised output steeply in recent months and has said it wanted to produce more in 2019.
Saudi Arabia would need to convince Russia to join in any move for new supply cuts.
“First the Saudis let oil prices rise to $86 per barrel and then flooded the market. Can they now cut back enough going into a seasonally weak time of the year? Without Russia it won’t be credible,” said Gary Ross, CEO of Black Gold investors.
Saudi Arabia must also contend with rising U.S. production that has hit record levels above 11 million bpd and is set to climb further next year. U.S. exports could surge from the second part of 2019 when new pipeline infrastructure opens.
Rapidan Energy Group said it saw a supply glut now lasting much more than just a few months in 2019.
“Now that the market has correctly priced weaker-than-anticipated Iran sanctions and much bigger inventory builds next year, we wish to emphasize that ‘OPEC plus’ officials face more than a single-year supply tsunami in 2019,” Rapidan said.
32 Comments on "Upset by Trump’s Iran waivers, Saudis push for deep oil output cut"
twocats on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 8:01 am
written a couple years ago, but still relevant
http://euanmearns.com/oil-price-volatility/
if it appears things are getting more chaotic – it’s not your imagination
joe on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 8:25 am
Saudi, no longer the ‘swing producer’, must begin to feel the impact peak oil. Tight oil from the US is the real story. The murder of khashoggi has really complicated the future of Saudi Arabia. Israel can’t cosy up to MBS and be taken seriously, the events of the Ritz Carlton could have been seen as the white knight of Arabia cleaning out corruption, but khashoggi has shown that this princes hands are up to his elbows in blood and he’s not even king yet. All the energy is focused now on keeping MBS in power is like keeping Pol Pot in power. This follower of the Nabetean Black Stone will destroy Arabia and jeopardise Mecca because he is even.
Mark Zieger on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 8:46 am
The Saudis in an attempt to increase production through water cutting can actually cream an oi field and it would not be the first time.
TIKIMAN on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 8:55 am
Thank GOD Trump is the president. That fucking bitch Clinton needs to die as well as her rapist of a husband.
Antius on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 9:26 am
Thanks Twocats. Here is another interesting article from Mearns.
http://euanmearns.com/scotlands-wind-exports-to-england-and-the-myth-of-a-100-renewable-scotland/
A 100% renewable energy future would imply a change to our collective way of life. Too many utopian politicos like to propoganidise the idea without really looking into (or being honest about) what it would really mean.
Antius on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 9:29 am
“Thank GOD Trump is the president. That fucking bitch Clinton needs to die as well as her rapist of a husband.”
Agreed Tikiman. As strange as it may seem, we all owe Hillary Clinton a favour. Had a more electable candidate stood in her place; the US deepstate would be a lot stronger than it now is.
JuanP on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 9:49 am
Joe “Israel can’t cosy up to MBS and be taken seriously.”
The US, Israeli, and KSA’s governments are the three largest terrorist organizations in the world! Do you take them seriously, Joe? I think they are a sad, pathetic bunch and are best avoided and ignored. I would never take them seriously; they keep shooting themselves in the feet. They are like a bad blooper on an endless loop.
Antius on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 10:06 am
Having pissed away 2.5 years since the Brexit referendum sitting on her hands, Teresa May shows the British public exactly where she stands…
https://tomluongo.me/2018/11/16/may-forces-brexit-betrayal-to-its-crisis-point/
…In the pocket of the globalist Zionists, Lird Levy & Co; just like all of her predecessors since John Major.
With less than a 100 days to go until Brexit, the ‘deal’ this traitor comes up with is deliberately useless.
Sissyfuss on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 11:56 am
Trumps two greatest tools in real making arsenal are intimidation and bullshist. While Billary would have been an abominable leader the Grifter is a nightmare in the flesh. There are no solutions to a predicament, only the bizarre and comical actions proceeding the collapse.
Sissyfuss on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 11:57 am
Should read ” his deal making.”
Antius on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 2:27 pm
https://www.thedailybell.com/all-articles/news-analysis/why-secession-is-the-only-peaceful-path-forward-for-the-usa/
Chrome Mags on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 6:00 pm
“The Saudis are very angry at Trump. They don’t trust him any more and feel very strongly about a cut.”
Finally catching on to Trump the Lying Manipulator.
green_achers on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 7:54 pm
What happens when you put amateurs in charge of a country.
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 2:29 am
U.S. renews Iran sanctions, grants oil waivers to China, seven others
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-iran-sanctions-oil/u-s-renews-iran-sanctions-grants-oil-waivers-to-china-seven-others-idUSKCN1NA2IO
Now let me see… waivers to major oil Iranian buyers like China, Japan, India, Italy…
Could it be that these sanctions are intentionally fake?
Yet another successful attempt of DJT to wrong-foot the US deep state in making them think he pursues the interests of the ZOG-empire, where in reality he again screws the neocons in letting them think he is doing their bidding, “for Isreael and empire”?
What he really does is pushing the Germans further into Russian oil-dependency.
Bye-bye empire.
DJT, the greatest president, white America ever had and still has, until “The Break”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9xHhbG3wvk
Go for it, Donald.
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 2:34 am
Having pissed away 2.5 years since the Brexit referendum sitting on her hands, Teresa May shows the British public exactly where she stands… in the pocket of the globalist Zionists, Lord Levy & Co; just like all of her predecessors since John Major.
If so, then why did Raab initiate his (((failed))) coup attempt?
What May is doing is trying to keep Britain into the European sphere of influence, where Raab tries to draw the UK into the realm of the (((US))).
For Raab & co, Europe is a lost cause anyway:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/05/06/sorry-america-the-new-world-order-is-dead/
(((Eric Posner)))
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-09-27/america-s-new-world-order-is-officially-dead
(((Bloomberg)))
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 2:47 am
@Antius – you got to make up your mind about what world you want to be part of.
Anglo-Zionism is currently in the process of retreating from Eurasia into Orwell’s Oceania, 2nd map:
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/which-future-world/
The koshers want at least to hold on onto Anglosphere.
British white nationalism is no option, too weak, always has been, always will be. Britain was destroyed by the Dutch for ever when they invaded and conquered Britain and handed it over to the Jews. 1690, the birth date of Anglo-Zionism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTjPCFwrEMU
(From “Foyle’s War”, written by a (((Horowitz))). At some point the British fascist asks Foyle: “are you a Jew?”. Horowitz doesn’t let Foyle answer that question)
Pan-European white nationalism (in Europe and North-America) is the only way forward (1st map).
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 3:13 am
CLogg
HAHA! Your map! looks like a five year old child drew it…
You are dumber than dirt..
LMFAO!
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 3:16 am
Clogg
Europe and Asia are the worlds two largest oil importer and we are headed for a global shortage..
You are going to collapse harder than the soviet union..
We got all oil covered by Shale, Canada, Iraq , etc.
HAHA!
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 3:32 am
Dutch pro-multicult newspaper has to admit:
https://www.trouw.nl/samenleving/binnen-de-schoolmuren-scheiden-witte-autochtonen-zich-af~a782f460/
Binnen de schoolmuren scheiden witte autochtonen zich af
“Within Dutch school walls, Dutch white pupils are turning their backs” (on colored ethnicities).
So much for Millimobs “young people mixing with non-whites”. They don’t.
US imposed multicult will fail just as magnificently as Soviet economic communism did.
All that remains is how to divide the Anglo loot between current #2 (Europe) and #3 (China), just like the #2 (USA) and #3 (USSR) divided the #1 European loot in 1945.
The revenge is going to be sweet.
Expect WW3 to begin in the South-China Sea, just as poor mr Malcolm Fraser fears it will happen, which would mean the end of white Australia:
https://tinyurl.com/ycdhjwp5
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 3:37 am
We got all oil covered by Shale, Canada, Iraq , etc.
HAHA!
Of course you have. What happened to your global peak oil 2020? Another kiken lie, right?
Btw, we have Russia for all our oil and gas needs. Besides we can be largely independent from oil and gas by 2030:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/09/30/hans-josef-fell-accelerating-the-global-transition-to-100-renewable-energy/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/03/24/the-netherlands-fossil-free-in-2030/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/netherlands-sustainable-by-2030/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/05/16/by-2030-you-wont-own-a-car/
Normally you would want to wait until 2050 in order to slowly write off your old fossil investments. But in case of an emergency it can be done much quicker.
No, what kosher idiots like you should do is concentrate on murdering and raping white people and wait to see what happens next.LOL
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 3:49 am
Clogg
IEA: Russia’s oil output to reach its peak in 2020
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/IEA-Russia%E2%80%99s-oil-output-to-reach-its-peak-in-2020.html
Europe’s Biggest Natural Gas Producer Is Running Out of Fuel
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-16/europe-s-biggest-natural-gas-producer-is-running-out-of-fuel
Independent from oil and gas..HAHA! that is science fiction.
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 3:51 am
Clogg
Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewables_engineers/
Solar and Wind produced less than one percent of total world energy in 2016 – IEA WEO 2017
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2017.pdf
UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives
(Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q
University of Chicago Peer Reviewed Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
Shortage of resources for renewable energy and food production (Rhodes 2011)
https://www.scribd.com/document/375501088/Shortage-of-resources-for-renewable-energy-and-food-production-Rhodes-2011
Top scientists show why powering US using 100 percent renewable energy is a delusional fantasy
http://energyskeptic.com/2017/big-fight-21-top-scientists-show-why-jacobson-and-delucchis-renewable-scheme-is-a-delusional-fantasy/
Why sustainable power is unsustainable
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16550-why-sustainable-power-is-unsustainable/
At this rate, it’s going to take nearly 400 years to transform the energy system
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 3:52 am
Clogg
Why don’t you have a comment section on your blog? You need a safe space?
LMFAO!
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 4:22 am
Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers
Google engineers should concentrate on what they are good at: spying on people.
Americans think there is nothing outside oil and gas. That’s OK. I would love to reserve lucrative renewable energy business as much as possible in European hands… so we can take over geopolitically.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/13/scottish-wind-delivers-equivalent-of-98-of-countrys-october-electricity-demand/
Why don’t you have a comment section on your blog?
You are too stupid to run a blog in the first place, right?
I only like dogs of good race, not a street dog like you, vomiting over my carpet.
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 4:30 am
Clogg
Your source is BS and has an obvious ‘conflict of interest” with the tech industry..
Germany Runs Up Against the Limits of Renewables
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601514/germany-runs-up-against-the-limits-of-renewables/
IEA Sees No Peak Oil Demand ‘Any Time Soon’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-sees-no-peak-oil-demand-any-time-soon-1488816002
You need a safe space for your blog..You know your lies would be easily refuted..Just like your WW2 lies..
Put it to the test tough guy..You won’t because you are quick to back down..
Fag boy!
Davy on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 4:49 am
“HAHA! Your map! looks like a five year old child drew it…”
LOL and he continues to reference it as it is rocket science.
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 5:10 am
“LOL and he continues to reference it as it is rocket science.”
I think you both are just intelligent enough to grasp the idea contained in the map. You both have no maps… or ideas for that matter at all. Just to bullies who are about to meet their Eurasian masters.
You know your lies would be easily refuted..Just like your WW2 lies..
You two lying fuckers have never refuted anything. davy, because he is smart enough to know I tell the truth, and millikike because he is too stupid to understand anything. All he ever does is attempt to send me to Reddit, because you are intellectually even to weak to formulate the official lies of the empire.
You two are intellectually 8 year old boys and I am the 70 year old catholic priest.LOL
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 5:26 am
Brexit newspaper DM on the offensive for the existing Brexit deal, knowing Britain won’t get any better:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6399741/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-Iron-Lady-wouldnt-got-better-deal.html
My personal “hierarchy of wishful thinking”
1. Soft Brexit
2. Hard Brexit
3. Remain
Advantage #1: UK keeps paying into EU coffers and can’t be used so easily by the US as its unsinkable aircraft carrier against continental Europe. Yet they no longer can keep pushing for Turkey’s membership or blocking a rapprochment to Russia, which is what all the European populists want.
Antius on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 6:18 am
“Antius – you got to make up your mind about what world you want to be part of.”
What I would like is for Britain to be part of a coalition of white nationalist states. But we don’t usually get what we want. More later.
Cloggie on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 6:39 am
Previously I just read the headline, now I read the entire article:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6399741/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-Iron-Lady-wouldnt-got-better-deal.html
What a treasure trove it is:
But we do not live in an ideal world. For in an ideal world, the EU would never have come into existence.
A single supranational entity covering the entire European continent, it represents everything that British policymakers have tried to avoid for centuries. We fought against the Spanish empire of Philip II, the French empires of Louis XIV and Napoleon, the German empires of Kaiser Wilhelm II and Adolf Hitler precisely because we hated the thought of a single power controlling Western Europe.
What the author “forgets” to mention is that the British tried to destroy us Dutch as well:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GtOmTLnlXU
In fact, Philips, Napoleon and Hitler tried to invade Britain but failed. The Dutch were the only ones to succeed in invading Britain and Northern Ireland and impose a regime change, something that the BBC now admits, more than 300 years later:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9PRYhT09l0
This is precisely the psychological makeup of the British: they stare from the relative safety of their island through binoculars to us “Huns”, on guard to watch that nobody gets too strong, and if someone does, the British organize a continental coalition against the strongest, in order to bring the potential leader down. It’s called “Balance of Power” geopolitics. In the eyes of the British, an ideal Europe is a destroyed Europe. And if necessary they will invite the Americans to tilt the balance.
That’s a pretty nasty situation for us Europeans. That’s why I love the EU so much, even if I share all the usual right-wing criticism against this somewhat Marxist construct. But the EU is Marxist because it is a vassal of America. And we are vassals of America because of the actions of the British war party in 1939, under the aegis of the world’s first neocon Winston Churchill.
Once that is no longer the case, and the signs are that America is retreating just like the USSR did, we can finally work towards a revival of European civilization, with or without the British (it is up to them), this time including Russia. Greater Europe is the only survival vehicle available against the rising tide of color, China and Islam and Africa. A revival of hard-core nationalism is madness. Strong inter-European cooperation is necessary, including those Americans who do not mind calling themselves Europeans (again).
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 7:26 am
IEA: 2025, oil supply shock
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/november/crunching-the-numbers-are-we-heading-for-an-oil-supply-shock.html
Duncan Idaho on Sun, 18th Nov 2018 10:01 am
I’d call him an idiot, but that would just be an insult to idiots everywhere.
(Trump)