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Page added on April 13, 2013
U.S. Won’t Allow Crude Exports Within the Next Decade
The U.S. won’t allow companies to export domestic crude oil within the next 10 years, according to more than 60 percent of those polled at a Bloomberg Oil Forum.
Thirty-four out of 82 traders, analysts and energy professionals attending the forum in London, or 41 percent, said the U.S. would never allow exports, while 22 percent said only after 2023. The U.S. will condone exports within the next five years, according to 13 percent of those polled, while the remaining 23 percent suggested sometime between 2018 and 2023.
“This question of the U.S. exporting crude runs so much against the grain of everything that comes out of Washington: energy independence, domestic oil and propping up U.S. self- sufficiency,” Sadad al-Husseini, the founder of Husseini Energy, an independent consultant in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, said at the forum in London today.
Technological improvements in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have unlocked new resources in the U.S. and the nation will probably become the world’s largest oil producer by about 2020, according to a November annual report by the International Energy Agency. Such abundance raises the possibility that the U.S. will rescind its decades-old policy of banning crude exports, the IEA said.
A U.S. decision on whether to allow oil exports would be “very helpful,” amid constraints on spare production capacity elsewhere, IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said at a conference in Paris on April 4, adding that the decision is one for the U.S. alone.
BP Plc (BP/)’s Chief Economist, Christof Ruehl, said in an interview in London on Feb. 18 that, from a market perspective, allowing U.S. crude exports would be the “best thing.”
Exports Unlikely
“I can’t see how politicians would make a 180-degree turn even within the next few years,” Husseini, who retired from Saudi Arabian Oil Co. in 2004, said today.
David Fyfe, the head of market research and analysis at Gunvor Group Ltd., said at the London forum today that such a move would be a “difficult political hurdle” to overcome.
“I think it is a difficult ask, although I think industrial reality and refining economics would suggest that it should allow it,” said Fyfe, who was formerly the head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division.
“Politically, I don’t see it happening under this current administration,” said Christian O’Neill, senior energy analyst at Bloomberg Industries.
Just a few years ago, few analysts predicted that the U.S. would now be on the verge of having enough natural gas to make exports viable, said Seth Kleinman, head of energy strategy at Citigroup Inc.
4 Comments on "U.S. Won’t Allow Crude Exports Within the Next Decade"
Arthur on Sat, 13th Apr 2013 1:09 pm
The US **WILL** never export oil, regardless of what opinion pollers find. In order to be able to export oil, you will have to have oil exceeding the oil you need for domestic consumption. And that will never happen for the US.
Unless of course new technologies will be developed that will bring into reach those trillions of barrels that do indeed exist in US soil. But nothing points in that direction at the moment. The only defensible behavior is bringing a barrel of oil straight from the shale drilling rig to the solar panel plant.
GregT on Sat, 13th Apr 2013 4:24 pm
What a crock of shit article, the US is an net oil importer, and has been since it peaked back in the 1970s.
BillT on Sat, 13th Apr 2013 5:09 pm
What I said above “I expect all countries to nationalize ALL of their resources. And the capitalist game will be over. So will the personal vehicles and many other ‘luxuries’ the West enjoys” is the answer here also.
I said it would happen when the world financial system collapses, sooner if there is a world war or at least one in the Middle East. The Western countries are not nor will they ever be ‘energy independent’ until they are using less than they can produce. At that point, the US will be living on less than half of today’s consumption.
Keep in mind that all of the fraking beast is already sipping heavily out of the sweet spots. What is left is going to be more and more expensive to recover. Ditto NG. We have maxed out our cooking oil and moonshine production.
But, I agree. In 10 years or less no-one will be exporting their fossil fuel production. There will not be enough left after domestic consumption to export at any price.
Others on Sat, 13th Apr 2013 9:14 pm
Still US dependence on Oil imports is 40%. First this should come to 0 %.
For this, both the domestic supply should increase and also the consumption should decrease. Certainly consumption will decrease as the Hybrids & Plugins are appearing and vehicles are becoming more fuel efficient.
But increase in production will take quite a long time as the Shale oil has 30% depletion rate.