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The Oil Collapse

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The global oil market has never in history collapsed as precipitously as it has right now. The oil and gas industry, which provides almost 60 percent of the world’s energy, is engulfed in a double crisis that would have been dismissed as unthinkable at the start of this year. A price war, with producing nations battling for market share, has become lodged in the larger crisis of the novel coronavirus pandemic and what will likely be the worst recession since World War II. The resulting collapse in demand will be bigger than any recorded since oil became a global commodity. Oil prices are already down two-thirds since the beginning of 2020 and still falling. The decline in global consumption in April alone will be seven times bigger than the biggest quarterly decline following the 2008–9 financial crisis. In areas that lack access to storage and markets, the price of a barrel of oil could fall to zero.

This crash will create turmoil for oil-exporting countries and add to the turbulence of financial markets. It will also add another layer of complexity to an already fraught geopolitical situation—including by pulling the United States into contentious international wrangling over what can be done to ameliorate the crash. In February of this year, U.S. oil production reached its highest level ever, 13.1 million barrels a day—considerably more than either of the other top global producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia. That record followed a decade in which, owing to the shale revolution enabled by new fracking techniques, the United States went from being the world’s largest importer of oil to a major exporter.

U.S. President Donald Trump himself has already stepped into the fray. Although he has long been an advocate of low oil prices—and quick to tweet against the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and efforts at global supply management in recent years—the current collapse has prompted a reversal. He recently called Russian President Vladimir Putin to talk about what can be done to stem what he would later call the “hurtful” decline. Trump then called Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and announced that a sizable coordinated reduction by the major oil producers is in the works. The Saudis have followed up by calling for a reconvening of OPEC, along with other key oil-producing nations, including Canada and Mexico. All this has sent prices up, although the “when,” “how,” and “who” of the potential deal remain unclear. And the larger the universe of players, the more difficult it will be to implement an agreement.

The nature and sheer scale of the current collapse and the geopolitical wrangling it has prompted present unique challenges for the United States and its energy sector—challenges that will have significant consequences for the U.S. economy and U.S. foreign policy in an already perilous moment.

THE END OF THE NEW OIL ORDER

As with so many other industries, the extreme distress in oil markets was caused by the coronavirus pandemic. But in the case of oil, that distress comes with a geopolitical twist.

The last oil price collapse, which began in 2014 as a result of a surge in supply, finally ended in 2016 with the emergence of a new order in international oil—OPEC+. This was an agreement between 11 OPEC members and ten non-OPEC countries to jointly reduce production in order to stabilize a falling market. Sometimes called the Vienna Alliance because of where it was formed, OPEC+ was at its foundation a Saudi-Russian entente, with the then two largest oil producers (and longtime competitors) embracing the new collaboration. It also provided an opening for a strategic relationship, giving Russia an opening to build bonds with one of the United States’ most important allies in the Middle East and also to attract Saudi investment. For Saudi Arabia, it was a way to hedge its relationship with the United States and gain some leverage in its standoff with Iran.

China, the biggest growth market for world oil, was suddenly shut down.

But the first phase of the coronavirus crisis, the outbreak in China in January and February, fractured the entente. China, the biggest growth market for world oil, was suddenly shut down. Instead of global demand increasing, as was expected, it fell by an unprecedented six million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020.

At the beginning of March, in and around OPEC and OPEC+ meetings in Vienna, Saudi Arabia and Russia began discussions about how to respond. It quickly became clear that they had very different perspectives. The Russian budget was based on what was seen as the relatively low price of about $42 a barrel. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, according to International Monetary Fund estimates, needed higher prices of around $80 a barrel to balance its budget. Accordingly, Saudi Arabia wanted deep cuts in output in order to try to put a floor under the price; Russia, professing uncertainty but assuming the impact of the coronavirus was likely to be much greater and would affect demand worldwide, argued instead to keep the existing agreement until June and then see where things stood.

Saudi Arabia insisted on the cuts. Russia emphatically said no. And so OPEC+ split apart.

OPEN THE VALVES

Saudi Arabia’s immediate response to the fracturing of the entente was to announce that in the absence of cuts by all producers, it would open the valves all the way. It began pumping as much as it could, aiming to add 2.5 million barrels per day to the 9.7 million it was already producing. The additional production was supposed to help make up for the decline in price. Russia responded by announcing that it would also produce all it could, though its capacity to increase is much lower, closer to 300,000 barrels per day. The battle for market share was on.

But while the price was already falling, the coronavirus outbreak was moving into its second and more devastating phase—the global pandemic. The resulting shutdown of much of the global economy has generated a collapse in demand on a scale the world has never seen before. In April, the decline could be 20 million barrels per day or more—about 20 percent of total demand.

Even as demand craters, oil will still flow out of wells; if it doesn’t go to consumers, it has to go somewhere—and that means into storage, primarily tankage spread around the world. On a country-by-country basis, IHS Markit calculates that virtually every available gallon of storage space in the world will be full by late April or early May. When that happens, two things will result: prices will plummet and producers will shut down wells because they cannot dispose of the oil.

While the price was already falling, the coronavirus outbreak was moving into its second and more devastating phase.

Because of the nature of their oil fields, Russia and Saudi Arabia are able to produce oil at costs much lower than most other countries. In those other, higher-cost countries, when the price that a barrel will fetch is lower than the costs of operating the well, a company can’t afford to continue pumping without losing money on every barrel. At that point, a company will close the well temporarily. Among the hardest hit is U.S. shale oil. As a consequence, the United States will likely have to give up share in the global market, to others’ gain. And as Igor Sechin, the CEO of Rosneft (which produces 40 percent of Russia’s oil) and a critic of the 2016 OPEC+ deal, has put it, “If you give up market share, you will never get it back.” (For some in Moscow, that is welcome, for they see the growth of U.S. shale as having given the United States a free hand to impose sanctions on the Russian energy sector—such as those last December that halted the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany just before its completion.)

U.S. shale producers are already under pressure. They are slashing their budgets and either greatly reducing or stopping drilling altogether. (With shale, drilling new wells is required to maintain production.) U.S. production could be down by almost three million barrels per day by the end of this year, according to IHS Markit calculations. If that comes to pass, the United States will still be a large producer, but well behind Russia and Saudi Arabia, and imports will rise. The economic costs will be high, given the importance of the shale revolution to the overall U.S. economy—accounting altogether, according to analysis by IHS Markit, for about 2.5 million jobs.

A MARKET OVERWHELMED

Is there some way to stabilize the global market? Ending the battle for market share would reduce the surplus flowing into the market, take some pressure off storage, and have a positive impact on market psychology, which is one of the factors that shapes prices. It would address only part of the problem of oversupply, but even that would be significant.

How to achieve such stabilization is another matter. But Saudi Arabia has a unique platform for facilitating a resolution, since it is chair of this year’s G-20, the forum for the world’s major economies to address and remedy international economic problems. During the 2008–9 crisis, the G-20 functioned as a sort of board of directors of the world economy. But that was a more collaborative era.

There are limits to what the United States can do. Members of Congress who are normally supportive of arms deals with Riyadh now want to tie the overall U.S.-Saudi relationship to international oil policy: 13 Republican senators from oil-producing states wrote to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressing dismay at what they described as Saudi policy “to lower crude prices and boost output capacity”; six of those senators, including the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, followed with a more pointed letter, saying that the U.S.-Saudi defense relationship “will be difficult to preserve if turmoil and hardship continue to be intentionally inflicted on the small- and medium-sized American companies.” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pointedly noted Saudi Arabia’s unique opportunity to “reassure global energy and financial markets.”

Unlike Riyadh and Moscow, Washington cannot tell companies how much oil to produce.

Within the United States itself, the government has only a limited set of tools. Unlike Riyadh and Moscow, Washington cannot tell companies how much oil to produce. It does have the option of putting almost 700,000 barrels a day into available space in the strategic petroleum reserve, but it would need congressional authorization to spend the money to do so, and last week’s $2 trillion stimulus package did not include the $3 billion of funding that would be required. (That $3 billion would have likely been a very good investment for the government, doubling in value when oil prices recover in a few years.)

The power to regulate output of oil lies with the states, most notably with the Railroad Commission of Texas, which despite its name regulates oil production in that state, which accounts for 40 percent of total U.S. production. The commission has the power to reduce output from wells in the name of preventing “waste,” but the last time it exercised that power was half a century ago. Any effort today to “proration,” as it is called, would be supported by some companies and opposed by others. Outside of the United States, it would be read as a signal that other countries should also implement production cuts.

With much of the global economy at a standstill, the oil crisis is going to get worse in the weeks ahead, and the damage will be felt well beyond the oil industry itself. As prices go down and storage fills up, production around the world will decline dramatically. Some of that might be the result of the coronavirus infecting and disrupting operations in different parts of the world. Some of it might be the result of decisions by countries despite an era of fractious global politics. But the bulk of the decline will be the result of a market overwhelmed by the sheer fury of the coronavirus and the shutdown of the world economy.

foreignaffairs.com



52 Comments on "The Oil Collapse"

  1. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 11:11 am 

    Food prices collapse in the Netherlands as a result of food hoarding.

  2. Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 12:21 pm 

    Whether the oil price is high, low, moderate, doomers cry doom. Whether demand is growing, shrinking, or stable, doomers cry doom.

    Naturally, doomers cherry pick the rough spots and call doom far more shrilly while they can.

    Yawn. This too shall pass.

    For the patient, quality investments, picked up gradually and prudently as the markets tank, tend to work out very well in the longer run (a decade or three).

    But let’s pretend THIS time is completely different, as always, and science doesn’t matter and can’t help, as always, etc.

    Because, spreading FUD endlessly is productive and fun. /s

  3. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 12:26 pm 

    2000 — Entheogen psychonaut & futurist shamanarchist, Terence McKenna (1946-2000) dies. Author of Magic Mushroom Growers Guide, advocate of the “Stoned Ape” theory of human evolution.

  4. Theedrich on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 1:24 pm 

    And now comes the long-forecast world collapse. Part of it is artificially caused by faulty computer models due to GIGO (“Garbage In, Garbage Out”).  Panic typically results in irrational decisions — like decreeing the indiscriminate cessation of all normal business in the name of health.

  5. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 1:46 pm 

    At some point we must draw a line across the ground of our home & our being, drive a spear into the land, & say to the bulldozers, earthmovers, government & corporations, “thus far & no farther.”
    — Edward Abbey

  6. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 1:53 pm 

    Badgers?

    “One book reported that Trump would interrupt his first chief of staff to pepper him with questions about badgers.”

  7. FuelShortageComing on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 2:13 pm 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ESBl3GTbTo&t=316s

    Good presentation of COVID global governance plan. You can skip the first 5:00. The plan is to feed you insects and a bit carbohydrate.

    I will give you my prediction here, this will backfire and mobs of people will kill politician, globalist, banker, CEO.

    Peak oil is here and we don’t have the net energy to do that. Watch mob people kill globalists, politicians including all their family members.

    Peakoil sucks ass. They cancel my account. They are promoting this global governance and are on board with it

  8. FuelShortageComing on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 2:19 pm 

    Peakoil.com sucks ass. They cancel my account. They are promoting this global governance and are on board with it

  9. Davy on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 2:49 pm 

    Macroeconomic consequences of Covid19

    https://tinyurl.com/tlq5dma PBS twing

  10. Rick on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:14 pm 

    In the event of this pandemic (COVID-19), I make do with I have and follow protocol.

  11. Rick on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:16 pm 

    I’m healthy, calm and don’t listen to the MSM.

  12. Davy on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:26 pm 

    For Rick, real name, juanpeeeeee.

    I am unhealthy, mentally unstable, and always listen to the MSM.

  13. Rick on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:33 pm 

    All 50 states in the US should legalise euthanasia/physician assisted suicide to allow people to die with dignity.

  14. JuanP on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:35 pm 

    Rick, did I tell you what it was like to get my ass booted off the moderated side because I am childish and stupid?

  15. Rick on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:37 pm 

    Do you mean what you are doing now with the Rick handle? Yea, juanPee, I understand now, you are a troll.

  16. Rick on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:40 pm 

    Juan P, that is Delusional Davy using your name. Wake up, man.

  17. SocialRevolutionComing on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:47 pm 

    Canada is implementating the world economical forum plans COVID 19. Look below what Canada is doing. They are now talking another 18 to 24 MONTHS of lock down. Click on the link below if you don’t believe me.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ESBl3GTbTo&t=316s

    Good presentation of COVID global governance plan. You can skip the first 5:00. The plan is to feed you insects and a bit carbohydrate.

    I will give you my prediction here, this will backfire and mobs of people will kill politician, globalist, banker, CEO.

    Peak oil is here and we don’t have the net energy to do that. Watch mob people kill globalists, politicians including all their family members.

    Peakoil sucks ass. They cancel my account. They are promoting this global governance and are on board with it

  18. SocialRevolutioncoming on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:50 pm 

    Canada is implementating the world economical forum plans COVID 19. Look below what Canada is doing. They are now talking another 18 to 24 MONTHS of lock down. Click on the link below if you don’t believe me.

    Sorry I amde a mistake link is

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBhTypl4wQo&t=7279s

  19. SocialRevolutioncoming on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:53 pm 

    The social revolution is coming to China once the learn the truth about the China virus

  20. juanPee said the virus ain't shit on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:57 pm 

    Global Economy Set for the Sharpest Reversal Since the Great Depression

    https://tinyurl.com/uhmavyf

  21. Rick on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:57 pm 

    juanPee is fucked up

  22. SocialRevolutioncoming on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:58 pm 

    We know he is a faggot and a maggot

  23. SocialRevolutionComing on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 4:59 pm 

    Canada is implementating the world economical forum plans COVID 19. Look below what Canada is doing. They are now talking another 18 to 24 MONTHS of lock down. Click on the link below if you don’t believe me.

    Sorry I amde a mistake link is
    Canada is implementating the world economical forum plans COVID 19. Look below what Canada is doing. They are now talking another 18 to 24 MONTHS of lock down. Click on the link below if you don’t believe me.

    Sorry I amde a mistake link is

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBhTypl4wQo&t=7279s

  24. SocialRevolutionComing on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 5:08 pm 

    I have problem with cut and paste here is the link another 18 to 24 MONTHS of lock down for Canada.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBhTypl4wQo&t=6542s

    Social revolution is coming and nothing will stop that. Army wont be effective because they wont have diesel to run army trucks

  25. makati1 on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 5:29 pm 

    Time to crush the pollution king, fraking. I hope to see all of them go bankrupt and shut their wells this year. Of course, the tax slaves will have to pay to clean up the mess they leave behind, as always. Think Love Canal.

  26. Davy on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 5:38 pm 

    Time to crush Asia who is doing the real pollution. Most of the worst coming from China

  27. REAL Davy on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 6:11 pm 

    Time to crush davy who is doing all the real PO.com pollution. Most of the worst comes from him two remaining brain cells.

  28. makati1 on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 6:12 pm 

    The US is the Pollution King considering ALL pollution.

    Production-based emissions: annual carbon dioxide emissions in tons per capita: 2018 WIKI

    US = 16.1 tons
    China = 8.0 tons
    Philippines = 1.4 tons
    Thailand = 4.1 tons
    Vietnam = 2.8 tons
    Japan = 9.4 tons
    Etc.
    Asia is much lower than the Western countries by far.

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=Pollution+per+capita+by+country

    This does not count the waste pollution.

    “The United States is the biggest generator of waste per capita worldwide, with each citizen producing an average of 808 kilograms per year – almost a tonne – and more than double that of citizens of Japan.”

    https://sensoneo.com/sensoneo-global-waste-index-2019/

    Nor does it consider that the US shipped its pollution factories to Asia, so it should add that pollution to its own. As it imports what those factories make.

    The US is NUMBER ONE in most negative things. Buckle up Amerikans! Great Depression ahead!

  29. JuanP on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 6:28 pm 

    Time to crush juanPee who is doing all the real PO.com pollution. Most of the worst comes from him two remaining brain cells.

  30. Davy on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 6:30 pm 

    “The US is the Pollution King considering ALL pollution.”

    OH, Fuck, makato-one resorts to per-capita to get his lame point across. China spews more CO2 then the rest of the world combined dumb fuck

  31. REAL Davy on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 6:41 pm 

    “Davy is the PO.com Pollution King considering ALL his pollution.”

    OH, Fuck, Mak resorts to my per-capita insanity to get his intelligent point across. I spew more dumbfuckery then the rest of the comments area, and world, combined dumb fuck

  32. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 6:43 pm 

    makati1– your view?

    As Virus Spreads in Philippines, So Does Authoritarianism: Duterte Threatens Violence Amid Lockdown

    https://www.democracynow.org/2020/4/3/coronavirus_asia_philippines_rodrigo_duterte

  33. JuanP on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 6:43 pm 

    “juanPee is the PO.com Pollution King considering ALL his pollution.”

    OH, Fuck, Mak resorts to my per-capita insanity to get his insane point across. I spew more dumbfuckery then the rest of the comments area, and world, combined dumb fuck. That is why they call me the pink poodle.

  34. Apolitical on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 6:52 pm 

    America is the Evil Empire.

  35. The Board on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 7:01 pm 

    I spew more dumbfuckery then the rest of the comments area, and world, combined dumb fuck. That is why everyone calls me delusional davy.

  36. JuanP on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 7:03 pm 

    I spew more dumbfuckery then the rest of the comments area, and world, combined dumb fuck. That is why everyone calls me delusional pink poodle. did i mention i got booted off the moderated side for being low iq and stupid?? well i did

  37. makati1 on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 7:05 pm 

    Duncan, do you not understand Du30? He always exaggerates in his speeches, but you have to know the culture and situation here to appreciate that.

    He is talking to a population, most of whom never graduated from a school, or maybe never went. School is not compulsory here. He is trying to get across the need for masks, ‘social distancing’ and curfews to be obeyed. Nothing more.

    You also have to think about the anti-Philippine propaganda spewed by the USMSM since the Philippines have turned to China and Russia and away from the warmongering US. Democracynow.org is a propaganda site owned by the US gov., not a real independent source.

    I read the transcript in the Manila Bulletin and he also said he was exaggerating, but the seriousness of breaking the quarantine was not. That is typical Du30 talk. Filipinos understand that, just like most Amerikans realize that Trumps tweets are all lies and bullshit.

  38. JuanP on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 7:06 pm 

    “I Found The Source Of COVID-19…”
    “After living and working in China for over 10 years and speaking fluent Chinese, you get to know a society pretty well… and let me tell you this – if you’re applauding or admiring the political leadership of China, you’re all deluded beyond belief.” That is how “laowhy86” begins this succinct video exploring the ‘facts’ – not conspiracies – behind the source of the coronavirus that is ravaging the earth. “China doesn’t operate like ‘your’ country,” he warns, “the Chinese government is a face- and greed-driven government that relies on lies and bullying to maintain leadership.” Furthermore, he notes, the Chinese government layers are “broken and fragile” and so it didn’t surprise him when he was able to follow breadcrumbs – as begun by our inquisition about the roles that certain individuals played in Wuhan – to discover the “very suspicious” fact that the Wuhan Bio lab had a job opening from November 18, 2019, asking for scientists to come and research the relationship between the coronavirus and bats. However, after ZeroHedge was permanently suspended from Twitter for daring to suggest anything but the official narrative handed down, laowhy86 notes that another job opening appeared on December 24th (remember this is before any news broke of the virus publicly), which basically says ‘we’ve discovered a new and terrible virus and would like to recruit people to come deal with it’…So, he decided to dig a little bit more into the staff… and that’s where it gets interesting… as he discovers silenced scientists, disappeared doctors, and constant propaganda…”…it’s quite clear that the Chinese government needs to close its mouth and acknowledge that this virus did in fact come from Wuhan, Hubei, China.” As he concludes, “I did not get into any conspiracy theories, I’m not talking about bioweapons or biolabs; this is all public information on the Chinese internet published by researchers, scientists, and doctors.” “Despite the CCP’s all-powerful ability to hide everything it can, the truth usually finds its way out – the Chinese government should cover their tracks better next time if they’re going to blame this on Italy or the US or whatever is convenient to your narrative.” “…the CCP’s incompetence and its understanding of the danger of the virus on a pure scientific level – and then going on to silence those who wanted to warn the public… and letting the virus spread for months… is the reason the Chinese government must be held accountable!” Watch the full breakdown below: What is really fascinating, however, is that while this thread was dismissed and censored as utter nonsense just two months ago (and got many banned for even daring to mention it), none other than David Ignatius, The Washington Post’s favorite establishment columnist, is now questioning China’s narrative and raising his own doubts as to the origin of the virus, writing that …as China dished wild, irresponsible allegations of its own. On March 12, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lijian Zhao charged in a tweet: “It might be [the] US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan.” He retweeted an article that claimed, without evidence, that U.S. troops might have spread the virus when they attended the World Military Games in Wuhan in October 2019. A competing theory has been gathering momentum – of an accidental lab release of bat coronavirus… Less than 300 yards from the seafood market is the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Researchers from that facility and the nearby Wuhan Institute of Virology have posted articles about collecting bat coronaviruses from around China, for study to prevent future illness. Did one of those samples leak, or was hazardous waste deposited in a place where it could spread? Richard Ebright, a Rutgers microbiologist and biosafety expert, told me in an email that “the first human infection could have occurred as a natural accident,” with the virus passing from bat to human, possibly through another animal. But Ebright cautioned that it “also could have occurred as a laboratory accident, with, for example, an accidental infection of a laboratory worker.” He noted that bat coronaviruses were studied in Wuhan at Biosafety Level 2, “which provides only minimal protection,” compared with the top BSL-4. Ebright described a December video from the Wuhan CDC that shows staffers “collecting bat coronaviruses with inadequate [personal protective equipment] and unsafe operational practices.” Separately, I reviewed two Chinese articles, from 2017 and 2019, describing the heroics of Wuhan CDC researcher Tian Junhua, who while capturing bats in a cave “forgot to take protective measures” so that “bat urine dripped from the top of his head like raindrops.” Ignatius unapologetically admits that what’s increasingly clear is that the initial “origin story” – that the virus was spread by people who ate contaminated animals at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan – is shaky. “Shaky” indeed, David!

  39. Davy on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 7:10 pm 

    “Duncan, do you not understand Du30? He always exaggerates in his speeches, but you have to know the culture and situation here to appreciate that.”

    Makato-one is apologizing and sugar coating a brutal leader who is corrupt to the core. The Chinese have him bought off for sure

    “He is talking to a population, most of whom never graduated from a school, or maybe never went. School is not compulsory here. He is trying to get across the need for masks, ‘social distancing’ and curfews to be obeyed. Nothing more.”

    LMFAO at the delusional old man

    “You also have to think about the anti-Philippine propaganda spewed by the USMSM since the Philippines have turned to China and Russia and away from the warmongering US. Democracynow.org is a propaganda site owned by the US gov., not a real independent source.”

    Bla bla bla

    “I read the transcript in the Manila Bulletin and he also said he was exaggerating, but the seriousness of breaking the quarantine was not. That is typical Du30 talk. Filipinos understand that, just like most Amerikans realize that Trumps tweets are all lies and bullshit.”

    I love when the makato-one says Du30. WTF is that stupid. The guy is a creepy corrupt douchebag and that is just the type of guy the makato-one lusts over.

  40. JuanP on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 7:16 pm 

    Wuhan Residents Believe COVID-19 Is 100 Times Worse Than Chinese Government Says, Report
    Residents in Wuhan, the origin of the coronavirus outbreak, have told reporters that “nobody believes the official numbers” being touted by the communist Chinese government, and that the general consensus is it could be 100 times worse than the world is being told. While Whuan is reopening its transport systems and businesses, residents are adamant that they have not been informed of the true scale of the situation, according to Spanish newswire service EFE. “There are suspicions that many people died in their homes without being diagnosed and, at first, there were no kits to do the test,” one resident said, adding that “Many people would die, officially, of a cold or some other disease. But there are stories going around of citizens who were made to sign death certificates of relatives without any other explanation.” “Nobody in Wuhan believes the official numbers. The real one, only they know,” the resident said, pointing to the sky. The report states that while frustration has led to a huge number of residents questioning the official narrative in social media chat groups, it has also led to a massive increase in censorship by the government. The Spanish reporters pointed to reports suggesting that the number of urns provided by just 7 funeral homes in Wuhan adds up to between 30,000 and 40,000, while the Chinese government says that less than 4000 people have died from coronavirus. A report by the independent Chinese media outlet Caixin estimated that just one of the funeral homes handed out 5,000 urns in one day last week. The Spanish journalists attempted to interview workers at one of the funeral homes, but were stopped and turned away by authorities guarding the facilities. Other residents told anti-Communist newspaper The Epoch Times that they simply cannot believe the government’s assertions about the death toll. “Just exactly how many Wuhan residents have died from the virus if the line at the cemetery is so long?” one resident said, adding “China’s official media reported over 3,000 coronavirus deaths. I think the real figure is at least ten times the official figure, and even 100 times is not impossible.” “The citizens of Wuhan believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) concealed the true death toll,” the report states. It continues “They made this judgment based on two facts: one, the lines outside the funeral home to collect the ashes are very long, and two, the medical standards of European and American countries are higher than those in China. But the reported death rates in these countries are higher than that of China.” Another Wuhan resident told Radio Free Asia “They are saying that only a few thousand died here in Wuhan, but does that sound right?” Both the US and the UK governments are of the belief that China is hiding the real scale of the pandemic, estimating that it could be 15 to 40 times worse than the communist state admits.

  41. Davy on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 7:19 pm 

    Good job juanPee on reporting about the China virus. Keep up the good work. I am glad you realize how wrong you and the makato-one were about everything. You guys really are the poster girls for dumbass

  42. JuanP on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 7:21 pm 

    Duterte Orders Philippine Police To Shoot Dead Virus-Lockdown Violators
    The Philippines could be on the brink of social chaos, sparked because the virus pandemic forced the government to lockdown 57 million residents, many of which are living in poverty and left jobless in the last month. Social unrest broke out mid-week in a Manila slum as food and health equipment are in short supply, reported AFP. DZRH, Manila Broadcasting Company, posted a chilling video of the social unrest, as low-income folks clashed with government forces during the quarantine. WATCH: Pwersa ng QCPD dumating na sa lugar kung saan nagra-rally ang mga miyembro ng Kadamay na residente ng Sitio San Roque, Brgy. Bagong Pag-asa, QC | via @dzrh5 Val Gonzales #DZRHat80 #COVID19Alert pic.twitter.com/TH13flb3Ng — DZRH NEWS (@dzrhnews) April 1, 2020
    While other reports suggest social unrest could soon erupt in the country, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte made it very clear on government media on April 1 that police will shot any citizen defying the public health order to shelter-in-place. “Shoot them dead”: After Filipinos defied a coronavirus lockdown to protest a lack of food, their president, Rodrigo Duterte, took to the airwaves declaring that he will order the military to shoot troublemakers deadhttps://t.co/dcJFXgsOua pic.twitter.com/ttbaXF3hml — CBS News (@CBSNews) April 2, 2020
    “I will not hesitate. My orders are to the police and military, as well as village officials, if there is any trouble, or occasions where there’s violence and your lives are in danger, shoot them dead,” Duterte said. “Do not intimidate the government. Do not challenge the government. You will lose.” “Instead of causing trouble, I’ll send you to the grave,” he warned, adding that COVID-19 is quickly spreading across the country despite a lockdown. According to Johns Hopkins, the Philippines (on Friday morning, April 3) has recorded 3,018 confirmed cases of the virus and 136 deaths – much less than surrounding countries. “It is deeply alarming that President Duterte has extended a policy of shoot-to-kill… Deadly, unchecked force should never be referred to as a method to respond to an emergency such as the COVID-19 pandemic,” Amnesty International Philippines said in a statement. On Thursday, Philippine National Police Chief Archie Gamboa defied Duterte and said his forces would not shoot people who are violating quarantine orders. “Probably the president just overemphasized on implementing the law in this time of crisis,” Gamboa added. It appears social unrest is developing in the Philippines – something that we’ve identified in the last several weeks that could be seen in the Western world. FLASH REPORT: Umano’y mga nagugutom nang residente ng Sitio San Roque, Brgy. Bagong Pag-asa, QC, lumabas na ng kanilang mga bahay at hinahanap na si @officialqcmayor Joy Belmonte | via @dzrh5 Val Gonzales #DZRHat80 #COVID19Alert pic.twitter.com/9xaXjDbKHg — DZRH NEWS (@dzrhnews) April 1, 2020
    LOOK: KADAMAY stages another protest in Sitio San Roque, Quezon City amid arrests made during enhanced community quarantine. RELATED: https://t.co/Qbic3xrixs pic.twitter.com/h4yfvolCig — CNN Philippines (@cnnphilippines) April 1, 2020 #FreeSanRoque21 “If you continue to jail the hungry poor people, expect more protests against this fascist, and elitist solution of the dictator Duterte” 21 hungry protesters from Sitio San Roque, Brgy. Bagong Pag-asa, Quezon City were arrested … pic.twitter.com/nlP5iTGGWa — NUSP #5StudentDemands (@NUSPhilippines) April 1, 2020
    The evolution of the virus crisis isn’t just collapsed economies across the globe, but rather the social unrest that follows.

  43. Davy on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 7:24 pm 

    wow, juanPee, that report will really hurt the feelings of Du30 lover makato-one. He hates bad du30 press.

  44. The Board on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 7:32 pm 

    wow davy, your stupid socking and ID theft will really hurt what little of your credibility remains. Which is zero fyi. davy hates the truth.

  45. JuanP on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 8:09 pm 

    wow pink poodle your stupid socking and ID theft will really hurt what little of your credibility

  46. JuanP on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 8:26 pm 

    Duterte has the right idea. We need the US government to learn from him.

  47. makati1 on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 8:26 pm 

    Davy, I don’t give a damn if you live or die. You are a worthless eater who is not needed. Your NEED to provoke replies to your bullshit is obvious. No life. No reason to even be alive. Go back to the goat pen. Your nanny is in heat and needs you. LMAO!

  48. JuanP on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 8:28 pm 

    Delusional Davy “I am glad you realize how wrong you and the makato-one were about everything. You guys really are the poster girls for dumbass”

    You are projecting again, Exceptionalist! LOL!

  49. makati1 on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 8:47 pm 

    Actually JuanP, DU39 is on the right track. There are actual food packages being distributed and money handed out in cash, not talk about doing something in the future. We received 10K of rice yesterday, which we passed on to my partner’s family as we did not need it, but received it anyway. There is a scheduled distribution, not a promise.

    I am glad to be living here and I think many Amerikans would move here if they could as this bullshit passes thru the US police state ass. Unfortunately, it is too late. Borders closed. Flights few, if any. Sigh!

  50. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 3rd Apr 2020 9:41 pm 

    Duncan, do you not understand Du30? He always exaggerates in his speeches, but you have to know the culture and situation here to appreciate that.

    I’m around a lot of people from the PI. My step sister is stuck there right now (can’t get back to Guam), and my brother is there on a regular basis.
    They have views that are different from yours.
    But I’m interested, as those 100 million people are important.

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